Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Los Angeles Chargers 4-9 (+2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders 7-6 (52): Raiders 30-27
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Chargers come into Thursday with three of their best offensive talents not named rookie QB Justin Herbert questionable (Keenan Allen; Mike Williams; Austin Ekeler), but lucky for them the Raiders defense lacks depth, with several role players questionable or out. Las Vegas is a long shot for the 7th seed in the AFC, and the Chargers have nothing but pride to play for considering the have no shot at the top draft pick, not that have any use for Trevor Lawrence anyway. Los Angeles possesses the 9th-ranked overall defense, but both teams have awful scoring defenses. The Chargers are also the 9th-ranked total offense, which begs the question, what gives? Attrition, youth and coaching, which you could almost say about the Raiders, although there are always those people that will argue for Chucky’s greatness. Analysis aside, I can’t see the Raiders squandering their last chance to stay alive at home on the short week, because the game is more about pride and the Raiders are the only ones with anything to play for.
Buffalo Bills 10-3 (-6) @ Denver Broncos 5-8 (49.5): Bills 28-23
Saturday, 4:30 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny & windy; high 40s)
Keys: Saturday football is back, which means we’ve had NFL football every night of the week this season except Friday, which if I’m not mistaken is some sort of congressional law to protect high school football. I’m not kidding, look it up. There are still two weeks to cram a Friday NFL game into the record books. Both of these defenses are pretty lousy, but at least the Bills possess one of the best offenses in the NFL (4th-ranked passing offense, 9th-ranked scoring & 10th-ranked overall). The only thing the Broncos do well is sack the QB (ranked 7th with 36 sacks), but the Bills give up the 10th fewest sacks in the league, so their strength is potentially neutralized. The Broncos will also be without PK Brandon McManus, which seems important. The last time I mocked pride in the NFL (TNF) it won out, but that’s not the case with a Buffalo team trying to beat the Miami Dolphins to the finish line, but the spread is another question, because the Broncos are in spoiler mode and Mile High does weird things to teams.
Carolina Panthers 4-9 (+8.5) @ Green Bay Packers 10-3 (50.5): Packers 33-24
Saturday, 8:15 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Snow clearing; low 30s)
Keys: The Packers offense ranks 10th in rushing, 2nd in passing, 2nd overall and 1st in scoring (31.5 ppg). Aaron Rodgers also has the highest QB rating in the NFL and the Packers offensive line gives up the 2nd fewest sacks (14). Green Bay is also trying to secure the top seed in the NFC at home in the freezing cold and snow against a warm-weather team facing a lost season. The Packers mean business and should take care of it pretty easily Saturday night.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-5 (-6) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (49.5): Buccaneers 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Ronald Jones III is out Sunday, meaning the Buccaneers will be a little more pass-heavy since I doubt they rely on Justin Fournette (Editor's note: It's Leonard), so lucky for them the Falcons are the 30th-ranked passing defense. The Falcons have only given up 17.8 ppg their last four games, but are also without Julio Jones against one of the better defenses in the NFL (t-4th sacks; 7th overall defense), so if Tompa Bay messes this up it could be lights out on 2020 for the Buccaneers.
San Francisco 49ers 5-8 (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys 4-9 (45): 49ers 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: ‘Tis the season when PFM doesn’t spend a whole lot of time analyzing games that don’t have playoff implications. Good god, it just dawned on me the Cowboys are still alive.
Detroit Lions 5-8 (+11) @ Tennessee Titans 9-4 *(51.5): Titans 34-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)
Keys: Derrick Henry could rush for 300 yards against the 28th-ranked run defense, which could keep the Lions off the field, but neither of these teams have large enough gaps in their point differentials, nor recent trends or injuries, to justify an 11-point spread.
Houston Texans 4-9 (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 9-4 (51.5): Colts 30-23
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: I feel like every week I’m talking about the Colts in a do-or-die game despite being tied for 1st in the AFC South. They lose the tie-breaker to the Tennessee Titans as of today based on divisional win %, so that about sums up the urgency of this game. Lose and you not only slip a game behind the Titans, you widen the divisional % gap. The Texans can’t run the ball or stop the run, and the Colts are great at stopping everything, so once again Deshaun Watson has his hands full and once again the Colts can’t afford to lose, but the hook plays right into my hands this week.
New England Patriots 6-7 (+2) @ Miami Dolphins 8-5 *(41.5): Dolphins 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Patriots find themselves in a position to give the Dolphins a taste of their own medicine by spoiling Miami’s playoff run Sunday. The Dolphins are gripping the recently added 7th spot for dear life and if they lose Sunday that will seriously decrease their chances or retaining it. Fortunately for Miami these Patriots don’t have the offense to compete with the Dolphins defense (1st takeaways; 2nd-ranked scoring defense).
Chicago Bears 6-7 (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings 6-7 (47.5): Vikings 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Can you believe these teams are tied for the 8th seed and it’s a must-win for Minnesota because Chicago holds the tie-breaker over them? I had no clue this game was this intriguing.
Seattle Seahawks 9-4 (-5) @ Washington Football Team 6-7 *(44.5): Seahawks 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 30% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: It’s getting ridiculous that these match ups featuring NFC East teams are constantly “games between two first-place teams”, but such is reality again Sunday when the Seahawks travel across the country again, yet are still nearly TD favorites against the 6th-ranked scoring defense. Washington’s offense is that bad and will already be without QB Alex Smith again Sunday. Don’t worry, he’s alive. Seattle is in a worthy divisional race and can’t afford to slip against a banged up Washington defense that doesn’t have the offensive power to hang with Seattle in the first place.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-12 (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-5 (47.5): Ravens 31-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 30% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: Covid almost killed the Ravens, but has somehow revitalized them, as they have now won two straight games after losing four of their previous five (to then-undefeated PIT twice, AFC South-leading TEN in OT and a formerly decent NE team on the road). If the season ended today Baltimore would lose the 7th seed to the Miami Dolphins by mere % points, so the urgency is there. So is the terrible opponent, which, in this case, has no chance of being overlooked.
New York Jets 0-13 *(+18.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 9-4 (43.5): Rams 30-13
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Let’s just leave it at 18.5 points is a ridiculous number for a Rams team that averages 25 ppg and a Jets team that brought three mediocre teams to the brink in three of the past five games. I’m being slightly facetious, but all that top defense (LAR) v. worst offense (NYJ) stuff doesn’t really warrant a 19-point win, does it? It’s happened to the Jets five time already and New York has come within a point of it happening seven times in 13 games. And the Jets have a -16.1 ppg point differential. Hmmmm...interesting. I don’t care, the Rams don’t score enough.
Philadelphia Eagles 4-8-1 (+6) @ Arizona Cardinals 7-6 (49.5): Cardinals 30-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: How many calls has Lincoln Riley received this week about his two former stand out QBs facing each other in a game no expected to see outside of a Tostitos Bowl? Jalen Hurts gets the nod again Sunday and for the first time that I can remember we’ll see an NFL game featuring two QBs that probably weigh less combined than Ben Roethlisberger does. The Cardinals are gripping on to that 7th seed tight with the underachieving Minnesota Vikings and the overachieving Chicago Bears looming, but the Eagles have nothing besides a pass rush and a spark of unknown duration caused by Hurts, hence the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs 12-1 *(-3) @ New Orleans Saints 10-3 (51.5): Chiefs 27-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If this potential Super Bowl preview were last year I’d be pumped, but even the vaunted Saints defense can’t slow the Chiefs enough for the Drew Brees-less Saints to keep pace (Editor's note: Drew Brees is, in fact, playing). The Chiefs know what time it is after the Pittsburgh Steelers fell off the last two weeks, and Taysom Hill can’t score enough points in general to win this game, let alone against this Chiefs defense. Pay no attention to the Chiefs recent string of one-possession wins since their last blowout Week 8 (NYJ), Kansas City is on a mission and New Orleans is the perfect team to prove something against as they prepare for a deep playoff run.
Cleveland Browns 9-4 (-6) @ New York Giants 5-8 (49.5): Browns 26-23
Sunday, 8:20 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% snow; high 30s)
Keys: The Browns are just the team to beat the Giants back into submission mode, and they can’t afford to lose in a suddenly re-crowded AFC North, but six points seems steep for this Giants defense (7th against the run).
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-2 (-12.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 2-10-1 (40.5): 27-16
Monday, 8:15 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Slight wind; low 30s)
Keys: If Joe Burrow was playing this week I’d be taking the Bengals in an upset, but alas, he’s not. All is not well in Pittsburgh, but before you think the Bengals are the best team to get back on track against, think again. What does that prove? In other news, these two teams score and allow nearly the inverse of each other, which means the Steelers might have trouble winning by 13 points or more.
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