Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Cincinnati
Bengals 2-8-1
(+11.5)
@ Miami Dolphins 7-4
(42.5):
Dolphins
27-17 Dolphins 19-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: Ahh, Florida, where it’s all beaches and sunshine and, well, nothing else but hell. When is the last time the Dolphins gave 11.5 points to anyone? This will be one of the few games played outdoors not plagued by frigid temperatures or a Nor’Easter. Not that the Dolphins really need the weather on their side playing the Bengals without top draft pick QB Joe Burrow. No, this is a great opportunity to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, as well as an opportunity to show they can take advantage of such situations and be taken seriously.
I should've known it was going to be a long weekend, no Tuesday extension pun intended, when I lost the first game ATS by a half point. Ugh. PFM took it on the chin Week 13, which stands to reason. I suppose that's why some hotels don't have 13th floors, as ridiculous as that is from a literal perspective. Nothing to report here besides a predictable outcome, save a half point.
Las
Vegas Raiders 6-5 (-9)
@ New York Jets 0-11 *(47):
Raiders
23-17 Raiders 31-28
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 90% rain & windy; low 40s)
Keys: The weather may be the Jets best friend Sunday, but the way the Raiders have been playing they might’ve struggled to cover 7.5 points in good weather. New York is probably the worst overall team in the NFL, but Las Vegas is struggling lately and possess a defense (28th scoring) as bad as the Jets (30th scoring) with no Josh Jacobs to keep them off the field.
Of course the game with the worst weather had the 5th-highest point total of the week. It's games like these that continue to trick Jets ownership into keeping Adam Gase. Raiders TE Darren Waller tried his best to help can Gase, hauling in 2 TD catches on 200 receiving yards, more than half of Derrick Carr's production (381 passing yards). Carr (3 TDs; 1 INT) threw the go-ahead TD with five seconds remaining in the game to keep the Jets defeated and on pace to secure the services of Trevor Lawrence. Boy is that going to be awkward.
Indianapolis
Colts 7-4
(-3.5)
@ Houston Texans 4-7
(51):
Texans
30-24 Colts 26-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Colts are beat up and officially in “don’t f*ck it up” mode, but the Texans have won three of their last four after starting the season 1-6 and ditching their head coach and front office, aka Bill O’Brien. That one loss in the past month also came at Cleveland in some of the worst weather we’ve seen so far this season. If you take that 10-7 outlier out of the past month the Texans averaged 31.7 ppg in those three wins; the Colts, once the top scoring defense in the NFL, have given up 38 ppg their last two games (1-1, but the loss came in OT v. GB), in addition to attrition issues. This seems like a steep cover for a Colts defense that simply isn’t healthy enough and a Colts offense that’ll rely on the running game pounding Houston’s awful run defense (31st ypg), which takes time. To be honest, the Colts might struggle to win outright.
This was the wrong game for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offensive line to lay an egg. Watson was sacked five times and was responsible for both Texans TOs, an INT and a fumble, which was all the Colts needed to beat Houston on the road and keep pace with the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South.
Cleveland
Browns 8-3
(+5.5)
@ Tennessee Titans 8-3
(53.5):
Titans
31-24 Browns 41-35
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: At first glance you might want to run to the window to take the 5.5 points, but what about at second glance? Does anyone even say second glance? The Browns have struggled for the past six weeks, which may seem ridiculous considering they’re 4-1 with a bye in that stretch, but those four wins have come against teams with 10 combine wins and by an average of only 3.3 ppg. The one loss? It came against the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders. The Titans seem to have gotten out of their funk and Derrick Henry (1,257 rushing yards; 12 TDs) is playing as well as ever, so even the Browns 9th ranked run defense will likely struggle. Getting Nick Chubb back since the bye has been a blessing (3 games: 3 wins & 384 rushing yards), but losing OBJ, as ironic as it sounds, was a curse.
The Browns are going to start standing for something else if they keep bringing their fans to the brink every week. Cleveland held a 38-7 lead heading into the second half, yet the Titans actually had a legitimate chance at tying the game, but Stephen Gostkowski's onside kick was scooped by the Browns and the rest is history. Baker Mayfield threw four TD passes in the win, and now has 21 TD passes on the season to go with a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. Not a bad turn-around for a guy who seemed doomed less then a year ago. Maybe this OBJ absence isn't so bad fro the Browns, no wonder the dude is all over social media like a crazy person.
Detroit
Lions 4-7
(+3)
@ Chicago Bears 5-6
(44.5):
Bears
24-20 Lions 34-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Mostly cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: What an awful game. The Lions are so bad they finally fired Matt Patricia and the Bears have lost five games in a row after starting the season 5-1. I told you long ago the Bears were frauds, but they’ll get back on track Sunday, I mean back to .500 Sunday, because the Lions are tail-spinning out of control once again and will be out in the cold temperatures, and once again, one-dimensional without their best WR.
This one is one of two games PFM botched completely. The Lions hung around all day, finally scoring the go-ahead TD with 1:37 left in the game after never leading once. Matthew Stafford threw for 402 yards and 3 TDs (1 INT), torn thumb ligament and all, proving once again, well nothing. Stafford is a tough kid with a canon arm, which we already knew.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 1-10 (+10)
@ Minnesota Vikings 5-6
(52.5):
Vikings
33-21 Vikings 27-24 OT
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Pile on these awful games, it’s not like we have anything to do but be stuck inside watching this trash. The Vikings are theoretically one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Jaguars are factually one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville wants Trevor Lawrence, but the Vikings fans want their money back. Well, metaphorically speaking, because they won’t attend any games this season. Wait, but didn’t teams still force season ticket holders to buy tickets anyway??? So maybe Vikings fans do want their money back. I’m getting off track. The point is the Vikings have an incredibly dynamic offense capable of scoring 40 ppg, while the Jaguars have neither the defense to stop that nor the offense to score enough points to keep pace, even against this recently deceased Minnesota defense.
A Vikings 4th-quarter safety put Minnesota in position to send the game to OT, where Dan Bailey kicked a 23-yard FG with only 1:49 left in OT to steal the home victory away from the lowly Jaguars, manned by Mike Glennon, the $15M Man from Chicago that pops up every now and again like Slenderman. The game featured six TOs, four committed by the Jaguars (2 INTs; 2 FUM), three by Glennon, which has to make the Vikings feel pretty good about pulling off the victory, otherwise things might be even uglier than they already are, which seems impossible given the circumstances.
New
Orleans Saints 9-2
(-3)
@ Atlanta Falcons 4-7
*(44.5):
Falcons
27-24 Saints 21-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Are they kidding with this O/U? Talk about recency bias. Just because these teams combined for 34 points two weeks ago doesn’t means two teams that combine to average 56.4 ppg on offense while allowing 46 ppg repeat the same performance. Even if Todd Gurley and Julio Jones didn’t play for the Falcons with Taysom Hill at “QB” for the Saints this is still going over 45 points. Mathematically, it works out to a 24-21 Saints win, which seems lazier than my analysis of this game. The bottom line is this Saints defense is one of the best in the NFL, but come into Sunday with key guys missing (e.g. Janoris Jenkins), while the Falcons could have their stars all back aligned as they try and salvage their season for their embattled fans, as the Falcons blowing huge leads has become the least of Georgia’s problems.
Julio Jones, of all people, dropped what would've been the go-ahead TD presumably making it a 23-21 game; the Falcons likely would've gone for two to make it a 24-21 game, or in our world, hit the over. Then again, they could've easily missed, making it a 22-21 game. We'll never know, but we do know this: I really effed this game up. The funniest part was my rant about the last game only hitting 34 points; this game only hit 37 points. Ugh.
Los
Angeles Rams 7-4
(-3)
@ Arizona Cardinals 6-5
(48):
Rams
24-23 Rams 38-28
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is another puzzling O/U, but when you look closer it begins to make sense. Kyler Murray is clearly not 100%, which has affected both phases of the Cardinals offense, while the Rams only average 23.5 ppg to begin with. This game will be about Aaron Donald (10 sacks; 13 TFL) and Leonard Floyd (7 sacks; 9 TFL; 2 FR) taking advantage of Murray’s diminished status, no pun intended, and continuing to force Arizona into a one-dimensional team whose best outside weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, may or may not be contained by the Rams best CB, Jaylen Ramsey. This is starting to sound a lot like the Houston Texans all those years when Deshaun Watson wasn’t 100%. What a shock. Look for another lower-than-expected score in a close game as both teams battle for position in the NFC West.
This isn't exactly the best self-promotion, but sometimes I clearly have no clue. Aaron Donald (1 sack; 1 QB hit) and Leonard Floyd (2 tackles) were held in check, Jalen Ramsey didn't have a single PD and Kyler Murray threw three TD passes, one to DeAndre Hopkins. I guess I did say "may or may not". I did get the win. Ok, maybe I have somewhat of a clue. The game belonged to Jared Goff (351 passing yards), who ran for one TD and threw another as the Rams tied the Seahawks for the NFC West lead, while the Cardinals may be need another wing and a prayer.
New
York Giants 4-7
(+10)
@ Seattle Seahawks 8-3
(46.5):
Seahawks
27-21 Giants 17-12
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 50s)
Keys: This game features two first place teams, but the Giants might be returning to Earth Sunday because the Seahawks are the team trying to keep that division lead for a playoff run that will actually materialize into something beyond a first round embarrassment. The Giants are actually a top-10 defense both overall and scoring, but we must keep in mind competition (NYG hasn’t faced an overall offense ranked higher than 15th – TB), not to mention overall SoS (7th easiest). Luckily for the Seahawks the Giants can’t score, because Seattle’s defense is anything but top-10. New York will learn their place among defenses against the Seahawks Sunday, as they’ll face the best overall offensive line they’ve faced yet with as many skill position players as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Regardless, 10 points could be steep for a team facing a good defense with a WR that loves to drop big plays (DK Metcalf), especially considering the NYG have only lost two games by 10 or more points all year: Week 1 to the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-16 and Week 3 to a full-strength San Francisco 49ers 36-9.
The Giants hit Russell Wilson ten times, sacking him five and defending seven of his passes, one of which was intercepted. Wilson also fumbled once, and Seattle fumbled their chance to stay ahead of the LA Rams in the NFC West, because besides holding the Seahawks to 12 points on the road, the Giants didn't do anything close to enough on offense to win. Now when the Giants face the Arizona Cardinals next week the two teams will be one game apart. Who saw that coming?
New
England Patriots 5-6
(+1)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 3-8
(47.5):
Chargers
24-21 Patriots 45-0
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Patriots begin their two-week vacation at the 5-star SoFi Stadium this week, spending the next couple weeks playing old foes in the comfy confines of the newest stadium in the NFL in Sunny Los Angeles. Certainly beats the Nor’Easter we’re going through this weekend back in New England. Call it scheduling logistics, but I call it a ridiculous advantage as the Patriots make a miraculous run at their 11th straight AFC East title (17 of the past 20 years). Bill Belichick’s record against rookie QBs is well-documented, and the Patriots are the only teams with something to play for besides pride. The Chargers have a formidable offense (3rd overall), although they don’t score many points with it, and many of those yards come in the air, which the Patriots defend well enough to stop a rookie QB, especially in the secondary. Despite all this, unless Cam Newton (4 TDs; 9 INTs) can get stop throwing INTs the Patriots don’t have much of a chance against teams with talent.
I'm going to sit this one out, suffice to say it was a "special" performance by New England.
Philadelphia
Eagles 3-7-1
(+8.5)
@ Green Bay Packers 8-3
*(46.5):
Packers
35-23 Packers 30-16
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: A few years ago there was a debate about whether Carson Wentz would be the one to take the perennial MVP conversation torch from Aaron Rodgers, but not only has that debate stalled, there’s no reason for the debate in the first place. Rodgers (33 TDs; 4 INTs) is one of the front runners for the award again in 2020, while Wentz has thrown the most INTs of his career with the statue of a former teammate and contemporary QB outside his own stadium. Philly, Philly! This is another surprising O/U, because Rodgers and Davante Adams (11 TDs) could hang 35 points on these Eagles by themselves. Are you telling me the Eagles can’t score 12 points against a mediocre Packers defense (13th overall; 19th scoring), especially if they get Zach Ertz back? Give me a break, they’ve averaged 17 ppg their last three games alone. <cough>
This one hurt. The Packers didn't score 35, but they came close. The Eagles scored more then 12 points, but they didn't hit their recent three-game average of 17 ppg. What does it all amount to? Missing the O/U by a half point (Sound familiar?) and Carson Wentz getting benched. Yikes.
Denver
Broncos 4-7
(+14)
@ *Kansas City Chiefs 10-1
(51):
Chiefs
35-17 Chiefs 22-16
Sunday, 8:205 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Calm; low 30s)
Keys: This is one of those games where the only question is whether or not the favorite will cover. Yes, they will. The Chiefs are home in calm weather facing a Broncos team still trying to find a QB that doesn’t have covid.
The Broncos took the lead again deep in the 3rd quarter and tossed out any chances of the Chiefs covering 14 points. Rookie sensation Clyde Edwards-Helaire dressed, but didn't play a snap, and Le'Veon Bell was held to 40 yards on 11 carries in his place. If not for the lone Patrick Mahomes TD pass to Travis Kelce (8 REC for 136 YDS), the Broncos would've beaten Harrison Butker 16-15 and we'd be talking about the second biggest upset of the year.
Washington
Football Team 4-7
(+7.5)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 11-0
(42.5):
Steelers
24-17 Football Team 23-17
Monday, 5:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: This game features two of the best defenses in the NFL (PIT: 1st scoring & 3rd overall; WAS: 4th scoring; 7th overall), although one could argue more for Pittsburgh’s competition, save the Steelers last game against the Baltimore Raven’s B-squad. Washington is not winning this game. They don’t have an offensive to speak of and the Steelers defense doesn’t play around, sacking QBs 41 times already through 11 games (1st) while keeping them to the lowest QB rating in the league by a long shot (71.5). That’s interesting because the Football Team gives up the 4th most sacks and their combined QBs have the 8th-lowest QB rating. This would be a double-digit spread if not for covid, rescheduling and Ben Roethlisberger’s noodle arm.
The Steelers finally caved to the recent chaos and gave up 13 uncharacteristic and unanswered points to Washington in the 4th quarter to close the game, spoiling their perfect season.
Buffalo
Bills 8-3
(-1)
@ San Francisco 49ers 5-6
*(48):
Bills
27-24 Bills 34-24
Monday, 8:15 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: As if this season isn’t wacky enough, the 49ers are “hosting” the Bills in Arizona because the state of California isn’t allowing contact activities. Let’s leave it at that because we’re not even in a position to make jokes about this situation. Sarcasm, sure, but we need to get our shit together as a country. I digress. The Bills didn’t have much luck the last time they were in Glendale three weeks ago, losing 32-30 to the actual owners of State Farm Stadium. Can I also point out that I’ve been calling it the University of Phoenix Stadium all year. Yikes. The Bills only lost because of a miracle DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary TD catch when Kyler Murray could still throw without pain. These Bills are on a mission to recapture the AFC East, while the 49ers are homeless, wounded and trying to stay alive in a cruel, harsh world. And in the NFC playoff race. The uprooting of the 49ers, the familiarity with State Farm Stadium, and the fact the Bills are on said mission and haven’t lost to a team with a losing record yet in 2020 points to them winning. Considering the spread, all we need to do is pick a winner.
The Bills took advantage of two Nick Mullens INTs and Josh Allen (32-40 for 375 passing yards) threw four TD passes as the Bills stayed ahead of the Miami Dolphins and inched closer to their first AFC East title in the New Era. See what I did there?
Dallas
Cowboys 3-8
(+7.5)
@ Baltimore Ravens 6-5
(45):
Ravens
27-17 Ravens 34-17
Tuesday, 8:05 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Clear; low 30s)
Keys: These Tuesday night games are becoming commonplace, which isn’t exactly a good thing. Your heart goes out to the Baltimore Ravens for what’s become of what could have been, unless you’re a fan of any one of the other 31 teams in the NFL. You could say the same thing about the Cowboys season, but let’s be honest, that didn’t require covid. This is a tough game to call because if Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens team is back and healthy the spread makes sense; if one or both of those things doesn’t happen the chances of the Ravens covering 7.5 points dips. The Ravens are still one of the best defenses in the league with or without Jackson, but the whole team was in limbo just a week ago, the scheduling has been a nightmare, and the 19 points they held the Pittsburgh Steelers to had a lot to do with the Steelers own scheduling acclimation issues. Regardless, the Cowboys are atrocious.
The Ravens beat up the good ol' Dallas Cowboys, but Dez Bryant couldn't make any glorious return because he tested positive for covid before the game, which means the Baltimore Ravens must be over their covid issues, right? For the sake of the NFL and the schedule, they have, right?? Right??? What a joke.
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