Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Atlanta Falcons 1-6 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 3-4 (49): Panthers 25-21
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 50% rain; low 60s)
Keys: What am I reading here? Las Vegas thinks these teams are evenly-matched? They haven’t seen the Falcons comically squander several wins this season after holding large leads, leads deep in the game, or both? In the meantime, all the Panthers have done is managed to stay afloat after losing arguably the best RB in the NFL for the season. Let’s not forget the weather. The Falcons can struggle outside in general, let alone the wind and rain. But these are the feared TNF games, where seemingly anything can happen, and the scores are either wildly under or over the set O/U. Regardless, I’m never taking these Falcons on the road in the rain on a short week, and the over might be a stretch considering these teams like to throw and the conditions might not be permitting.
New England Patriots 2-4 (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bills 5-2 (41.5): Bills 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 80% rain w/ high winds; low 50s)
Keys: When was the last time these two teams were in this position, the early 90s? The Patriots have their worst record since the pre-Tom Brady days of 2000; the Bills have a few starts this good since their hey day over 25 years ago, but none of those teams felt like these Bills. Regardless, it all comes down to the weather Sunday, with driving rain and high winds and even higher wind gusts forecast, which will likely keep things on the ground. You might think that would favor the Patriots, but those running numbers might be a bit skewed from back in the pre-covid days of the Patriots 2020 season.
Tennessee Titans 5-1 (-5.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 1-5-1 (53.5): Titans 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Titans should have no trouble scoring on the Bengals, especially on the ground, so the question is, can the Titans stop rookie Joe Burrow and the Bengals, because save for a near shut out at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens the Bengals would be averaging close to 30 ppg themselves. The Titans are part of the cream of the AFC, but the Bengals might be the best one-win team in NFL history besides the Dallas Cowboys a few weeks ago. Don’t be surprised if Cincinnati covers the 5.5 points at home.
Las Vegas Raiders 3-3 (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns 5-2 *(51): Browns 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly 100% rain w/ high windy; low 50s)
Keys: This game will feature the week’s worst weather, which means the under could be a lock at 51. The Brown’s superior run game on both ends not only favors them in general, but certainly in the driving rain. Let’s not forget the Browns lost OBJ for the season, which will hamper their high-flying offense even more, although the Raiders certainly don’t want to hear about any attrition.
Indianapolis Colts 4-2 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 3-3 (50): Colts 28-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Colts are one of the better teams in the league, specifically on defense, and especially against the pass, the one thing the Lions do well on offense. If the Colts can get the ground game going at all this could be a pretty easy cover.
Minnesota Vikings 1-5 (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers 5-1 (51.5): Packers 35-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Windy; high 30s)
Keys: There are a few games not worth much analysis this week, and this is one of them. The Packers are home in cold, windy weather and the Vikings, not nearly as stout defensively and too used to the indoors, well, aren’t. With Dalvin Cook questionable and Aaron Rodgers firing on all cylinders, yes, save that game against the Buccaneers, even a TD seems safe here.
New York Jets 0-7 (+19.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-1 (49): Chiefs 48-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: Normally I’d say this is a no-brainer, and not even in the way you’re probably thinking, but the Jets are that bad. Few NFL teams cover college-style spreads, but a victory by at least three TDs seems not only plausible, but likely. If Patrick Mahomes can score 43 in the snow in Denver, he can score at least 45 against these Jets at home in balmy 50º weather. As for the Chiefs defense, the only fear about taking the over is they could shut the Jets out.
Los Angeles Rams 5-2 (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins 3-3 (46): Rams 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 40% storms; low 80s)
Keys: It’s Tua time! Do you know what that means? Stay the hell away from this game. Even the Rams don’t know what to expect from the man, the myth, the legend that is Tua Tagovailoa, so how can we? The Rams are tied for third in sacks (24) and give up the fewest ypa (6.5), so they’ll give the rookie some problems no matter how talented he is. However, Tua is used to the poor weather having played in the SEC, whereas the Rams are sun-kissed, which won’t be the case Sunday. Look for Tua to make a splash, get a few welcome gifts from Aaron Donald and cover the 3.5 points, but not win.
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-0 *(+4) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-1 (48.5): Ravens 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 50% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Steelers remain the only undefeated team in the NFL and come into Baltimore to face a team about as equally-matched as any team in the NFL (PIT: 10.8 ppg point differential; BAL: 12.5 ppg point differential). The Steelers lead the NFL in sacks, but the Ravens aren’t far behind, tied for fifth. The Steelers throw over 50 fewer passing ypg than the Ravens, but they rush for 35 more ypg. The Steelers also give up the 2nd fewest rushing ypg, which will be the key to this game. With rain expected the Ravens will likely test the Steelers run defense, which could one of two ways, but neither of them point towards the Steelers losing by four or more points, despite the Ravens extra preparation time.
Los Angeles Chargers 2-4 (-3.5) @ Denver Broncos 2-4 *(44.5): Chargers 24-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The aspect of the Chargers defense that is still elite should be able to get to Drew Lock rather easily and set the stage for a long game for the Broncos. It also sets the stage for a pretty low-scoring game, although, admittedly, I haven’t called either of these teams very accurately all season.
New Orleans Saints 4-2 (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears 5-2 (43.5): Saints 23-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Breezy; high 30s)
Keys: The Saints might want to get used to life without Michael Thomas, but they don’t have to worry about that against the Bears Sunday. They should be more worried about the wind and cold, as the 41-year old Drew Brees is struggling enough with the long ball, and by long I mean over 20 yards, although Brees’ ypa is 8.9 on the road, 1.2 ypa more than his season average. But those numbers are for the season so far, and the Saints haven’t seen weather close to this yet. Regardless, the Bears are frauds, although now that I say it, both teams only have two wins ATS on the season. However, if Kahlil Mack doesn’t go, it’s a wrap.
San Francisco 49ers 4-3 (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks 5-1 *(54): Seahawks 28-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: The 49ers have recovered rather nicely from their gigantic road block of attrition a few weeks ago and are starting to look like a force again, but the Seahawks only blemish on the season came last week in a thrilling OT loss to the sprite Arizona Cardinals. Seahawks games combine for an average of 928.8 total yards and 62.5 points, so expect fireworks once again in the perfect fall weather.
Dallas Cowboys 2-5 (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 2-4-1 (43): Eagles 24-13
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 20% rain; low 50s)
Keys: Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Ben DiNucci, the Cowboys are going to have a tough time protecting either one of them. Dallas is in shambles after the Dak Prescott injury, the mishandling of Ezekiel Elliot and a spat of injures and inconsistencies that have led to the Cowboys being one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Eagles fell out of the nest long ago, but it’s about week-to-week match ups, and the Eagles got this one, even if it turns into a ground game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-2 (-10.5) @ New York Giants 1-6 *(46): Buccaneers 33-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: Suffice it to say the Buccaneers are one of the top 3-5 best overall teams in the NFL and the Giants are one of the 3-5 worst. Both teams defend the run well, so it’ll likely be Tom Brady trying to keep pace in the MVP race while getting some revenge on the Giants, for whatever that’s worth.
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