Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Houston Texans 1-4 (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans 4-0 (53.5): Titans 31-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The Titans take after the New England Patriots with their pound-the-ball offense, a bend-don’t break defense and they don’t turn the ball over (1st TO ratio). Ryan Tannehill is also one of the hottest QBs in the league the past 1.25 seasons, whether he’s talked about or not. The Texans are coming off a rally-’round-the-Romeo, but they’re one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL (31st), so they can’t handle one of the AFC’s four best teams.
Cincinnati Bengals 1-3-1 (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-2 (46.5): Colts 27-17
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: The Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league, and passing is the only thing the Bengals do well, and you can probably count on the Colts forcing a TO, so the Colts could easily cover the 7.5 points assuming Philip Rivers doesn’t melt down.
Atlanta Falcons 0-5 (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-4 (54): Vikings 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A game between two indoor teams (no advantages) with nearly elite offenses, but putrid defenses, the one real advantage the Vikings had over the Falcons is gone with the absence of Dalvin Cook, while the only thing the Falcons do well is back close to full strength. That might not amount to a win on the road, but it might amount to a loss by three or fewer points, because as much as the Vikings could be 3-2 rather the a one-win team, the loss of Cook crushes them.
Denver Broncos 1-3 (+9) @ New England Patriots 1-1 (45): Patriots 24-20
Sunday, 1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: I’m afraid to waste my time previewing this game. More positive Patriots covid tests canceled practices this week, but the NFL seems hellbent on pushing forward like a Midwestern state in covid denial. So much for the conspiracy theories New England faked the positive tests to ensure Cam Newton would be playing. While I’m at it, so much for the rumors the Patriots would automatically land Le’Veon Bell, which television talking head dip shit Nick Wright screamed about all week, only to have Bell land on Wright’s favorite team from that doomed Midwest. If I were the Broncos players I’d have a serious issue with this game, but for all we know NFL players have covid gag orders. Suffice it to say the Broncos don’t have much of a shot against Newton’s Patriots, but certainly have a shot against Brian Hoyer’s Patriots, because the Broncos have finally found their pass rush. Either way, all things considered, nine points is too much, especially if Drew Locks plays.
Washington Football Team 1-4 (+2.5) @ New York Giants 0-5 (42.5): Giants 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: This is a game between two nearly equally awful teams that seem to be trending in the opposite direction. Things in DC are spiraling out of control faster than Trump's campaign since their miraculous win over the Philadelphia Eagles Week 1, while the Giants just lost a barn burner to the Dallas Cowboys, which also happened to feature the worst injury I’ve seen since Napoleon Kaufman's. The Giants seem to have found something in Daniel Jones, while Dwayne Haskins is proving to be the headache some thought he might be pre-draft. Regardless, in the meantime it’s up to Kyle Allen and we saw how that worked out last week.
Baltimore Ravens 4-1 (-9) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-3-1 (47.5): Ravens 30-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Cleveland Browns 4-1 *(+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-0 (51): Steelers 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 60s)
Keys: When is the last time these two teams played at this point in the season with one loss between the two of them? I can’t imagine it’s happened in Baker Mayfield’s lifetime. The Steelers will score on the Browns, more so through the air because what would have been a 1 (CLE rushing) v. 2 (PIT rush defense) match up has tipped in the Steeelers favor after the injury to Nick Chubb. That means the key is whether the Browns offensive line can keep Mayfield upright, who has a tendency to prematurely bail from the pocket anyway, and if so, we could be in for another shoot out. This is a “get up” game for the likes of OBJ, so expect the Browns to be on their best behavior and give their AFC North rivals a run for the money.
Chicago Bears 4-1 (+1.5) @ Carolina Panthers 3-2 (44.5): Panthers 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Both of these teams are the model of mediocrity, despite the winning records, as evidenced by their 1.0 ppg (CHI) and 0.8 ppg (CAR) point differentials and their statistical rankings, which range from 4th to 27th and are distributed evenly among both teams on both sides of the ball. Don’t let the Bears 4-1 record fool you, not only is that not representative of their abilities, but the Panthers are actually the better team even without Run CMC.
Detroit Lions 1-3 (-3) @ *Jacksonville Jaguars 1-4 (54.5): Lions 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 50% storms; high 70s)
Keys: Two awful defenses (JAX 24th; DET 29th) face off in the rain, which will stifle the mediocre to awful offenses (DET 19th; JAX 24th), especially the climate-controlled Lions. Joy. I’m not sure the Jaguars win when the Lions had two weeks to prepare, but I bet they cover. Thank you, thank, I’m here all week.
New York Jets 0-5 (+9) @ Miami Dolphins 2-3 (47): Dolphins 27-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 70% storms; low 80s)
Keys: The Dolphins are riding high after destroying a wounded 49ers team and the Jets are riding Joe Flacco, not to mention an owner whose company just botched the covid vaccine trials. Things are not well in East Rutherford, so they decided to bail on Le’Veon Bell, but they probably should’ve bailed on Adam Gase, because all that did was make the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs stronger. The Dolphins are sneaky mediocre to possibly decent, at least on paper, and are slowly turning into an ATS beast. I’m taking the dive.
Green Bay Packers 4-0 (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-2 (55)*: Buccaneers 31-30
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 40% storms; high 80s)
Keys: The Golden Boy gets Chris Godwin back to help him remember what down it is, but the Packers are the offense everyone should be worried about. Maybe not, because the Packers defense isn’t that great and hasn’t faced anything like the Buccaneers, and the Buccaneers will be their healthiest on offense in weeks. Let’s also not forget Tom Brady is psycho, so chances are despite being married to the world’s top model, despite being worth a half a billion dollars and despite having the most privilege of anyone any person reading this can think of, the dude was still watching us clown him all week and getting hotter by the day. Something tells me the weather helps the Packers more than the home team, but we all know Brady can chuck it in the rain, so the Packers could be in for their first lose, and as far as the points go, unless this ends in a tie that about covers it. Ok, enough puns.
Los Angeles Rams 4-1 *(-3) @ San Francisco 49ers 2-3 (51.5): Rams 27-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: I don’t give these wounded 49ers much of a chance against a Rams team with a 9.2 ppg point differential that just has to travel up the road in beautiful weather with the baddest man on Earth in Aaron Donald. I don’t know what Las Vegas is talking about here. These are the same 49ers that just got smoked by the Miami Dolphins last week, did we already forget that?
Kansas City Chiefs 4-1 (-4.5) @ Buffalo Bills 4-1 (57.5): Chiefs 31-27
Monday, 5:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Chiefs can’t really handle the rush, but the Bills are one of the worst running teams in the league, and mostly rely on their QB Josh Allen for a chunk of those rushing yards. Other then that the only advantage the Bills have here is they don’t have to go anywhere. The Bills are facing a tough stretch of opponents now, and time will tell whether the Bills are for real, whereas the Chiefs have been battling all season, but are already battle tested. Both teams are also coming off their first losses of the season and will be looking to get back on track, and both teams need to keep distance in their respective divisions, but Kansas City is just a little better.
Arizona Cardinals 3-2 *(-1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 2-3 (55): Cardinals 30-24
Monday, 8:20 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is The Red Rocket’s team now, and the kid from Texas has something to prove. Maybe. We’ve seen this movie before and the Cowboys struggle with Dak Prescott, so why wouldn’t they struggle with Andy Dalton? The Cardinals bounced back nicely against the lowly New York Jets last week, while the Cowboys narrowly escaped with a win against the even lowlier New York Giants, losing Prescott for the season in the process. So is Las Vegas saying there’s not much difference between Prescott and Dalton or are they saying a team that could easily be 0-5 would have been favored against Arizona save for the Prescott injury? Either way, smash that Cardinals outright button.
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