Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
New York Giants 1-5 (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-4-1 (45): Eagles 27-21
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Foggy; high 60s)
Keys: The only thing worse than this game is my TNF record. Lucky for us this game actually has implications. Yes, believe it or not, the winner of this game will be tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East lead for at least a few days. The Eagles are more talented and have faced a tougher schedule, hence the spread. However, both teams are still pretty bad, hence the O/U. If it actually stays foggy Philadelphia’s superior run game (3rd with 5.2 ypc) should win out, despite the Eagles banged up offensive line. As for the Giants, even if the fog lifts that only means the Eagles pass rushers (4th with 21 sacks) will see Daniel Jones even better. Keep the DVR off for this one.
Detroit Lions 2-3 (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-5 (56): Falcons 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Lions are a perennially mediocre team and are once again average running the ball and defending the pass. The Falcons are a terrible team, but somehow 2nd in passing and 8th against the run, which means the Lions will try to take advantage of the second-worst pass defense in the league, except the Lions are 22nd passing the ball themselves. In other words, the lowly Falcons are considered nearly equal to the Lions despite the home-field “advantage”, hence the spread. But wait, the Falcons are 0-3 at home and their two best WRs are still questionable heading into Sunday. Assuming Atlanta’s wide-outs are a go, the Falcons squeak by and we come close to the O/U, otherwise no.
Cleveland Browns 4-2 (-3.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 1-4-1 (50.5): Browns 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: The Browns are one of the worst scoring defenses in the league, but possess one of the best rush defenses (2nd), so the Bengals being without Joe Mixon again hurts. The Bengals don’t do much well, but they’re 4-2 ATS and Baker Mayfield and the Browns are just wacky enough to win by only three points on the road against a one-win divisional opponent.
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-0 *(+1) @ Tennessee Titans 5-0 (50.5): Steelers 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Steelers are 4-1 ATS, possess the best defense in the NFL and are better then the Titans in several statistical metrics.
Carolina Panthers 3-3 (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints 3-2 (51.5): Saints 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Panthers pass the ball (9th) and defend the pass (7th) well, and the Saints don’t really do either well, especially with Michael Thomas out again. The Saints somehow score nearly 31 ppg and keep teams to 100 rushing ypg (6th), but I just don’t see these Saints beating these Panthers by more than a TD, if they even win at all.
Buffalo Bills 4-2 (-13) @ New York Jets 0-6 (45): Bills 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Jets might be the worst team in the league, but the Bills have stumbled of late and are the only team with a 4-2 record or better with a negative point differential (-2.0 ppg); in fact, they’re the only winning team in the NFL with a negative point differential other than the Las Vegas Raiders, and theirs is only -0.17 ppg. So am I saying the Jets are going to win? Don’t be ridiculous, but I wouldn’t surprised if they lose by 13 or fewer points, otherwise we can say goodbye to Adam Gase. Maybe. Probably not. Ugh.
Dallas Cowboys 2-4 (-1) @ Washington Football Team 1-5 (46): WFT 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 60s)
Keys: The anti-Daks of the world told us all week the Cowboys wouldn’t skip a beat with Andy Dalton, and that was clearly nonsense. The Cowboys were still losing games with Prescott, but they were averaging nearly 32 ppg, not ten. These teams are led by men that once coached in Super Bowls; now they battle to either take control of their division with a losing record, or tie it among three teams with .333 winning percentages.
Green Bay Packers 4-1 (-3.5) @ Houston Texans 1-5 *(57): Packers 35-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Packers fell on their faces last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Texans are no Buccaneers, although they do possess a much more dynamic QB. The Packers don’t really turn it over, the Texans do, and besides Deshaun Watson, the Texans don’t really do anything as well or better than the Packers. Regardless, the Packers defense is awful, and both teams give up a combined 58.1 ppg, so I expect the over to be crushed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2 (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders 3-2 *(53): Buccaneers 31-27
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tom Brady is trying to sabotage the Buccaneers like he did the New England Patriots, and if forcing them to sign Rob Gronkowski at $10M wasn’t proof enough, Brady getting them in the Antonio Brown mix sure the hell is. Brown isn’t worth any more key strokes, so suffice it to say these teams should easily combine to blow this O/U away.
Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 (-9.5) @ Denver Broncos 2-3 (46): Chiefs 24-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Snow; low 20s)
Keys: The Chiefs are no strangers to snow, but a potential blizzard in October? Even the Great Mahomes can’t cover nearly ten points in that. And unlike most of the weather forecasts the NOAA provides me on a weekly basis, this storm seems very likely (forecasted At 100% probability) to actually happen, which means the Broncos have leveled and otherwise very lopsided match up to some degree, i.e., less than 9.5 points.
San Francisco 49ers 3-3 (+2) @ New England Patriots 2-3 (43.5): Patriots 23-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Mostly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: Are we sure this game is happening Sunday? Are we sure no one on the Patriots has contracted covid-19 again this week, despite MA being one of the lowest infected states in the country. No, apparently all is well in New England, save for the actual football record, which is on the losing side for the first time in nearly 20 years (18 to be exact). If the 49ers were at full strength we’d be looking at the worst record to start a Patriots season since Bill Belichick’s first year with New England in 2000, but they’re not and Belichick isn’t trying to relive those Brady-less years again, after all, the man has something to prove.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-5 *(+8) @ Los Angeles Chargers 1-4 (49): Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Every time I want to ditch the Jaguars the pot gets sweeter and look who they’re playing Week 7: The Los Angeles Disappointments. The intelligent voice in my head tells me to stay clear of the Jaguars, while the greedy, stupid voice in my head says there’s no way the Chargers don’t mess this up and gift the Jaguars the cover at the very least. These teams have the same number of wins, the same TO ratio and the Chargers pass defense might have a tough time handling Minshew Mania. The Chargers are also 4-1 ATS, but eight points is more than the Chargers have been afforded; on the other hand, the Jaguars are 2-4 ATS, but haven’t had this much room for error. If not for the Chargers ineptitude I wouldn’t be taking a chance on these Jaguars again. But they are, so I am.\
Seattle Seahawks 5-0 (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 4-2 *(56): Seahawks 34-30
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It’s the little engine that has versus the little engine that will. Russell Wilson is up to his usual MVP antics, while second-year phenom Kyler Murray is building on his RoY campaign from a year ago. This is the NFC West battle people expected when the Cardinals drafted Murray, and with Seattle’s dip in defensive prowess the past few seasons there should be plenty of fireworks in this game, because no matter how well the Cardinals defense has played thus far (2nd scoring defense), they haven’t faced an offense like the Seahawks yet. In fact, Arizona haven’t really faced any decent offenses yet. The one thing the Seahawks still do well is defend the run (7th), so Murray’s scampers could be held in check, although not many have kept the Cardinals 4th-ranked running attack in check so far. The Cardinals loom, but they’re not quite ready to overthrow, or even tie, the Seahawks in the division quite yet.
Chicago Bears 5-1 (+6) @ Los Angeles Rams 4-2 (45): Rams 27-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Bears have a 1.0 ppg point differential and they’re 5-1. How is the possible? Not quite SoS, as they’ve played as many bad teams (NYG; ATL) as good teams (IND; TB) with two mediocre teams (DET; CAR) mixed in for balance. The secret could be their wins have come with win margins of four, four, four, one and seven points, respectively. So essentially it’s a case of luck, as the Bears could as easily be 1-5 as they are 5-1. The Rams have played a similar SoS, and look similar on paper, but have a considerably better point differential because of one simple reason: The Rams are far more talented than the Bears and have consistency at the most important position.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.