Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Houston
Texans 1-4 (+3.5)
@ Tennessee Titans 4-0
(53.5):
Titans
31-27 Titans 42-36 OT
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The Titans take after the New England Patriots with their pound-the-ball offense, a bend-don’t break defense and they don’t turn the ball over (1st TO ratio). Ryan Tannehill is also one of the hottest QBs in the league the past 1.25 seasons, whether he’s talked about or not. The Texans are coming off a rally-’round-the-Romeo, but they’re one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL (31st), so they can’t handle one of the AFC’s four best teams.
This game featured over 1,000 total yards and 56 first downs in a wild AFC South showdown in which both Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill threw four TD passes, but surprisingly didn't rush for any. Derrick Henry did, however, two in fact, on 212 rushing yards on only 22 carries. Wait, does this mean it's the end of the season?
Cincinnati
Bengals 1-3-1 (+7.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 3-2
(46.5):
Colts
27-17 Colts 31-27
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: The Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league, and passing is the only thing the Bengals do well, and you can probably count on the Colts forcing a TO, so the Colts could easily cover the 7.5 points assuming Philip Rivers doesn’t melt down.
The Colts scored 10 unanswered 4th-qaurter points to avert disaster. In fact, the Bengals led 21-0 in the 2nd quarter before Philip Rivers threw three TD passes to help the Colts climb back and take the lead, and eventually, the game.
Atlanta
Falcons 0-5
(+4)
@ Minnesota Vikings 1-4
(54):
Vikings
30-27 Falcons 40-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A game between two indoor teams (no advantages) with nearly elite offenses, but putrid defenses, the one real advantage the Vikings had over the Falcons is gone with the absence of Dalvin Cook, while the only thing the Falcons do well is back close to full strength. That might not amount to a win on the road, but it might amount to a loss by three or fewer points, because as much as the Vikings could be 3-2 rather the a one-win team, the loss of Cook crushes them.
The Vikings scored 16 4th-quarter points to make this game look like it wasn't a complete blowout, which included four TD passes from Matt Ryan and three from Kirk Cousins, but Cousins also threw three INTs.
Denver
Broncos 1-3 (+9)
@
New England Patriots 1-1 (45):
Patriots
24-20 Broncos 18-12
Sunday, 1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: I’m afraid to waste my time previewing this game. More positive Patriots covid tests canceled practices this week, but the NFL seems hellbent on pushing forward like a Midwestern state in covid denial. So much for the conspiracy theories New England faked the positive tests to ensure Cam Newton would be playing. While I’m at it, so much for the rumors the Patriots would automatically land Le’Veon Bell, which television talking head dip shit Nick Wright screamed about all week, only to have Bell land on Wright’s favorite team from that doomed Midwest. If I were the Broncos players I’d have a serious issue with this game, but for all we know NFL players have covid gag orders. Suffice it to say the Broncos don’t have much of a shot against Newton’s Patriots, but certainly have a shot against Brian Hoyer’s Patriots, because the Broncos have finally found their pass rush. Either way, all things considered, nine points is too much, especially if Drew Locks plays.
Eight FGs highlighted this snooze-fest. I had the Broncos covering slated for one of my five picks of the week, but I bailed at the last minute because I'm afraid of Bills Belichick. Ugh.
Washington
Football Team
1-4 (+2.5)
@ New York Giants 0-5
(42.5):
Giants
24-20 Giants 20-19
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: This is a game between two nearly equally awful teams that seem to be trending in the opposite direction. Things in DC are spiraling out of control faster than Trump's campaign since their miraculous win over the Philadelphia Eagles Week 1, while the Giants just lost a barn burner to the Dallas Cowboys, which also happened to feature the worst injury I’ve seen since Napoleon Kaufman's. The Giants seem to have found something in Daniel Jones, while Dwayne Haskins is proving to be the headache some thought he might be pre-draft. Regardless, in the meantime it’s up to Kyle Allen and we saw how that worked out last week.
This game featured no lead changes, three TOs and 577 total yards.
Baltimore
Ravens 4-1
(-9)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 1-3-1
(47.5):
Ravens
30-20 Ravens 30-28
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Cleveland
Browns 4-1
*(+3.5)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-0
(51):
Steelers
28-27 Steelers 38-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 60s)
Keys: When is the last time these two teams played at this point in the season with one loss between the two of them? I can’t imagine it’s happened in Baker Mayfield’s lifetime. The Steelers will score on the Browns, more so through the air because what would have been a 1 (CLE rushing) v. 2 (PIT rush defense) match up has tipped in the Steeelers favor after the injury to Nick Chubb. That means the key is whether the Browns offensive line can keep Mayfield upright, who has a tendency to prematurely bail from the pocket anyway, and if so, we could be in for another shoot out. This is a “get up” game for the likes of OBJ, so expect the Browns to be on their best behavior and give their AFC North rivals a run for the money.
The Steelers had nine TFL, seven PD and hit Baker Mayfield eight times en route to sacking him four, which also played a part in Mayfield's two INTs. The Browns are a roller coaster, but this Steelers defense is the best in the NFL, so we can't pile on too much.
Chicago
Bears 4-1
(+1.5)
@ Carolina Panthers 3-2
(44.5):
Panthers
23-20 Bears 23-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Both of these teams are the model of mediocrity, despite the winning records, as evidenced by their 1.0 ppg (CHI) and 0.8 ppg (CAR) point differentials and their statistical rankings, which range from 4th to 27th and are distributed evenly among both teams on both sides of the ball. Don’t let the Bears 4-1 record fool you, not only is that not representative of their abilities, but the Panthers are actually the better team even without Run CMC.
This game was as bad as the WAS at NYG game and I botched all but the O/U, which anyone could've predicted. I suck.
Detroit
Lions 1-3
(-3)
@ *Jacksonville
Jaguars 1-4
(54.5):
Lions
24-23 Lions 34-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 50% storms; high 70s)
Keys: Two awful defenses (JAX 24th; DET 29th) face off in the rain, which will stifle the mediocre to awful offenses (DET 19th; JAX 24th), especially the climate-controlled Lions. Joy. I’m not sure the Jaguars win when the Lions had two weeks to prepare, but I bet they cover. Thank you, thank, I’m here all week.
PFM really took it on the chin with the Top 5 picks this week, present game included. PFM has taken it on the chin with the Top 5 games all season, but you could argue we've all taken it on the chin in 2020.
New
York Jets 0-5
(+9)
@ Miami Dolphins 2-3
(47):
Dolphins
27-17 Dolphins 24-0
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 70% storms; low 80s)
Keys: The Dolphins are riding high after destroying a wounded 49ers team and the Jets are riding Joe Flacco, not to mention an owner whose company just botched the covid vaccine trials. Things are not well in East Rutherford, so they decided to bail on Le’Veon Bell, but they probably should’ve bailed on Adam Gase, because all that did was make the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs stronger. The Dolphins are sneaky mediocre to possibly decent, at least on paper, and are slowly turning into an ATS beast. I’m taking the dive.
Despite the bad week ATS, PFM got a few games right across the board, including this one (HOUvTEN; ARZvDAL). The Jets tail-spun into Miami against the Belichickian Dolphins defense as the ever-exciting FitzMagic out-dueled the never-exciting Joe Flacco. Yes, that Joe Flacco.
Green
Bay Packers
4-0
(-1.5)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-2
(55)*:
Buccaneers
31-30 Buccaneers 38-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 40% storms; high 80s)
Keys: The Golden Boy gets Chris Godwin back to help him remember what down it is, but the Packers are the offense everyone should be worried about. Maybe not, because the Packers defense isn’t that great and hasn’t faced anything like the Buccaneers, and the Buccaneers will be their healthiest on offense in weeks. Let’s also not forget Tom Brady is psycho, so chances are despite being married to the world’s top model, despite being worth a half a billion dollars and despite having the most privilege of anyone any person reading this can think of, the dude was still watching us clown him all week and getting hotter by the day. Something tells me the weather helps the Packers more than the home team, but we all know Brady can chuck it in the rain, so the Packers could be in for their first lose, and as far as the points go, unless this ends in a tie that about covers it. Ok, enough puns.
I can't stand Tom Brady (2 TDs) either, but is the only thing people are getting out of this game is Brady's perceived terrible handshake with Aaron Rodgers? Are we this bored? The Packers led 10-0 at one point, but the Buccaneers evaporated that lead on the back of two Rodgers' INTs, scored 38 unanswered points, including 28 in the 2nd quarter, and destroyed the Packers. Tampa Bay has begun to cement themselves among the NFC's elite teams, penalties and all. Thanks for the effort Green Bay, all I needed was eight more lousy points out of your supposed elite offense.
Los
Angeles Rams 4-1 *(-3)
@ San Francisco 49ers 2-3
(51.5):
Rams
27-20 49ers 24-16
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: I don’t give these wounded 49ers much of a chance against a Rams team with a 9.2 ppg point differential that just has to travel up the road in beautiful weather with the baddest man on Earth in Aaron Donald. I don’t know what Las Vegas is talking about here. These are the same 49ers that just got smoked by the Miami Dolphins last week, did we already forget that?
I suppose when George Kittle is back to form and Jimmy Garappolo (3 TDs) is feeling the heat the 49ers aren't the same team that got blown out by the Miami Dolphins. Once again I've been humbled by the sharps. Sorry for the Top 5 fumble.
Kansas
City Chiefs 4-1 (-4.5)
@ Buffalo Bills 4-1
(57.5):
Chiefs
31-27 Chiefs 26-17
Monday, 5:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Chiefs can’t really handle the rush, but the Bills are one of the worst running teams in the league, and mostly rely on their QB Josh Allen for a chunk of those rushing yards. Other then that the only advantage the Bills have here is they don’t have to go anywhere. The Bills are facing a tough stretch of opponents now, and time will tell whether the Bills are for real, whereas the Chiefs have been battling all season, but are already battle tested. Both teams are also coming off their first losses of the season and will be looking to get back on track, and both teams need to keep distance in their respective divisions, but Kansas City is just a little better.
The Chiefs nearly doubled the Bills production and Buffalo still nearly kept it within one score. That might read absurdly, but the truth is the Chiefs aren't as dominant as in years past and have been figured out, or least kept in check, by several potential playoff teams, which is something to watch going forward, especially ATS.
Arizona
Cardinals 3-2
*(-1.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys
2-3
(55):
Cardinals
30-24 Cardinals 38-17
Monday, 8:20 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is The Red Rocket’s team now, and the kid from Texas has something to prove. Maybe. We’ve seen this movie before and the Cowboys struggle with Dak Prescott, so why wouldn’t they struggle with Andy Dalton? The Cardinals bounced back nicely against the lowly New York Jets last week, while the Cowboys narrowly escaped with a win against the even lowlier New York Giants, losing Prescott for the season in the process. So is Las Vegas saying there’s not much difference between Prescott and Dalton or are they saying a team that could easily be 0-5 would have been favored against Arizona save for the Prescott injury? Either way, smash that Cardinals outright button.
Just when I admit being humbled by Las Vegas a game like this occurs. 1.5 points? Are you kidding? This was money in the bank. Kyler Murray scored three total TDs, Kenyon Drake rushed for 164 yards and two TDS and the Cardinals never led by fewer than 21 points the entire game. Four Cowboys TOs (2 Andy Dalton INTs; 2 Ezekkiel Elliot FUM) didn't help a disastrous situation in Dallas, either.
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