Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 3-1
(-3)
@ Chicago Bears 3-1
(44.5):
Buccaneers
24-20 Bears 20-19
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear; high 50s)
Keys: Both teams enter Thursday night 3-1, but they aren’t exactly equal. The obvious difference between the two teams is the Buccaneers sort-of-explosive offense (30.0 ppg) relative to the stagnating situation in Chicago. The Bears have barely beaten bad teams, had to come back against worse teams and could’ve lost to arguably the worst team in the NFL, while Tampa Bay has only been getting better since their Week 1 lose at New Orleans. What gives? Attrition. The Buccaneers are coming in hobbled on a short week, which explains the O/U, and Las Vegas is probably counting on another pick-six from Tom Brady, hence the three-point spread. The Bears also defend the pass really well (6.5 ypa), although they might not get to Brady much; Nick Floes, on the other hand, could be running for his life as Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL with 14 sacks. Consider this hobbled Buccaneers team like Brady’s old New England Patriots teams, so they’ll win, cover and who the hell knows about the O/U, my TNF record is awful.
Sometimes the best part about these reviews is clowning myself, like "...although they might not get to Brady much..." for instance. Kahlil Mack got to Brady twice himself, for a total of three Bears sacks (eight QB hits), as the Chicago defense held the Buccaneers to 339 total yards. Another TNF blunder for PFM, but at least I nailed the Bears score.
Arizona
Cardinals 2-2 (-7)
@ New York Jets 0-4
(47):
Cardinals
31-23 Cardinals 30-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Jets are statistically one of the worst teams in the league, but one could argue the Cardinals might have been the most overrated coming into the season. Seven points might seem steep for a 2-2 team traveling across the country, but is it? Kyler Murray needs to get back on track and the weather will be unseasonably similar to Arizona, and despite yielding nearly the same yards per game, the Jets give up nearly 10 ppg more than the Cardinals. Please leave Kyler Murray alone, Turf Monster.
The Jets did Jets things, and couldn't even muster another TD to at least push the O/U. Maybe I didn't realize Joe Flacco was playing. I don't know.
Cincinnati
Bengals 1-2-1
(+13)
@ Baltimore Ravens 3-1
(51):
Ravens
33-24 Ravens 27-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 50% rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Bengals aren’t actually bad, they’re mediocre. Literally. They score and allow exactly the same amount of points (24.8 ppg) and they gain and yield within 20 yards (391.0:409.3 total O:D yards). The Ravens couldn’t be further from mediocre, with a whooping 12.2 ppg point differential, although their yards gained:yielded is shocking. Not only do they give up almost 30 more ypg than they gain, they give up nearly 390 ypg. What’s my point? 13 points is too high for an opponent that scores 25 ppg and gives up the same amount of yards on defense.
Joe Burrow was hit 15 times, sacked seven, threw an INT and lost a fumble. Not only is that how you fail to cover, but even score until 32 seconds remaining in the game when Randy Bullock kicked an inexplicable 38-yarder to avoid the shut out...I guess.
Philadelphia
Eagles 1-2-1
(+7)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-0
(44.5):
Steelers
27-17 Steelers 38-29
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 40% rain; low 70s)
Keys: Carson Wentz could be in trouble. The Steelers are rested after their covid-forced Week 4 bye, and the Eagles, despite breaking their three-game losing streak, haven’t made it look that easy. I told you last week to take the points because the 49ers were hobbled. Such is not the case here in the rain against a Steelers defense ranked third in sacks (15). What do you know, looks who’s tied for first?
The Steelers hit Carson Wentz 11 times, sacking him five, and forced two INTs. Midway through the 3rd quarter the Steelers led 31-14 and it looked like the Eagles were about to be blown out of the game, but they soared back, scoring 15 unanswered points to scare the shit out of me before the Steelers put the game away towards the end of the 4th quarter.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 1-3
*(+6)
@ Houston Texans 0-4
(54):
Texans
27-24 Texans 30-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Does Las Vegas really expect the Texans to rally around Romeo Crennel to the tune of nearly a touchdown? Give me a break. This is an awful game, and the one thing the Jaguars do right (10th passing) the Texans defend well (5th-ranked pass defense), hence the Texans giving six at home, which I wouldn’t bank on. Romeo, oh Romeo, where art thou first win?
Midway through the 4th quarter the push seemed safe, but alas, the Texans did rally around Crennel, who became the oldest head coach in NFL history (73 years old).
Las
Vegas Raiders 2-2 (+12.5)
@ Kansas City Chiefs 4-0
(55):
Chiefs
38-24 Raiders 40-32
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Two very good offenses, one terrible defense and one of the few teams with an actual home field advantage at this point is a lock for the win, and based on a Raiders team with a -4 TO ration (25th) and a defense ranked in the bottom 25% of the league in most metrics, the cover could be a lock, too. The divisional games can be tricky, Kansas City has stumbled of late, and the Chiefs will be starting a CB who hasn’t played a snap in 2020, but this game has sour Derek Carr face written all over it.
I almost took the Raiders to cover the 12.5 points, as you can see from my preview, but I never expected them to win at Arrowhead, even at 22% capacity. The Raiders recent top draft picks were on display (Jacobs; Ruggs III) and put together offensive onslaughts in the 2nd and 4th quarters that would normally resemble the Chiefs.
Los
Angeles Rams 3-1
(-7)
@ Washington Football
Team
(45):
Rams
27-17 Rams 30-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 40% rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Rams have a pretty special offense and Washington, well, doesn’t. The Football Team plays the pass well (4th), but that’s about it. The days of transcontinental travel for early games being a thing is now a thing of the past, so with a back up QB at the helm for Washington, look for the Rams to win and cover, but the weather makes the O/U a tough call.
This one of the three games PFM got across the board (W; ATS; O/U), but no one could have predicted the laughable 108 total yards and ten first downs for the Football Team, which amazingly came with zero TOs. More like WTF, amirite?
Carolina
Panthers 2-2
*(+2)
@ Atlanta Falcons 0-4
(54.5):
Panthers
28-27 Panthers 23-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Suffice it to say the Panthers can throw and score on the Falcons enough to warrant taking the points.
Holla' at yo' boooooooyyyyyyyy.
Miami
Dolphins 1-3 (+9)
@ San Francisco 49ers 2-2
(49.5):
49ers
24-20 Dolphins 43-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: Miami is awful, but they’re still ranked 12th in points allowed and don’t turn the ball over much (0 TO ration), and the 49ers are still licking their wounds. This is like the Eagles situation last week: Take the points.
I knew the Dolphins would cover nine points , but damn, a 26-point victory??? The Dolphins never trailed and took advantage of the 49ers three TOs on their way to a not-so-shcoking upset.
New
York Giants 0-4
(+8.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys
1-3
(54):
Cowboys
33-24 Cowboys 37-34
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Giants gave the Los Angeles Rams a scare last week, and the Cardiac Cowboys keep you guessing at all times, but if Dallas is going to get right in 2020 it has to start at home against the hapless Giants. The interesting thing here is no team gives up more points than the Cowboys, yet no team scores fewer points than the Giants. Unless the Giants get to Dak Prescott, it could be back to Earth for the Giants.
Suffice to say that's not an injury we're getting out of our heads any time soon.
Indianapolis
Colts 3-1
(-3)
@
*Cleveland
Browns 3-1
(46)*:
Browns
27-24 Browns 32-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 70s)
Keys: This is the second week in a row I’ve not only hitched my wagon to the Cleveland Browns, but I’ve doubled down by taking the Browns points and the over for two of my five Top five picks of the week. Isn’t it obvious? For the second week in a row the Browns are at least three-point underdogs to a relatively equal team, and over the Browns three-game winning streak they’ve averaged nearly 40 ppg while keeping OBJ happy. The Colts can stop the run (4th), the one thing the Browns have dominated, and the loss of Nick Chubb is devastating, but Kareem Hunt was signed for this very reason. The truth is neither of these teams have beaten anyone to earn their 3-1 record, and as good as the Colts defense can be, it’s their offense that should be stunning people, and it’s inconsistent at best because, well, Philip Rivers. Jonathan Taylor has been everything the Colts had hoped, but Cleveland can stop the run, too (5th). The bottom line is Cleveland isn’t losing by three points or more at home and there’s no way this game ends around 24-21.
Two Top 5 picks of the week two weeks in a row with this most recent Browns cover and over. Philip Rivers certainly makes it easier when he throws two INTs and causes a safety.
Minnesota
Vikings 1-3
(+7)
@ Seattle Seahawks 4-0
(57):
Seahawks
31-23 Seahawks 27-26
Sunday, 8:20 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 50% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: Bad weather. Bad team. Two awful defenses (both teams combine to yield over 900 ypg). One QB has a 1:1 TD:INT ration while the other has an 8:1 TD:INT ration and has just over twice as many incompletions so far this year as TDs (34:16). There’s your recipe for a seven-point spread and such a high O/U. The weather could keep that total down, but Russell Wilson will undoubtedly upstage Kirk Cousins at home whether there’s a 12th person there to see it or not. Even if the Vikings get loose with Dalvin Cook, the Seahawks still have elite LBs.
Get used to hearing "Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf" because we're going to be hearing it for a long time. Metcalf hauled in a 6-yard TD pass from Wilson with 15 seconds remaining in the game in yet another Wilson 4th-quarter comeback. The Vikings led the entire first half before surrendering 21-unanswered points in the 3rd quarter to relinquish that lead, and ultimately, the game.
Denver
Broncos 1-3
(+8)
@
New England Patriots 2-2
(48.5):
Patriots
21-17 PPD
Monday, 5:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 60% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: Again with this team and covid-19. Yet another star player (Stephon Gilmore) tested positive and forced a second postponement in as many weeks, this time to dinner on Monday night. If not for the hapless Broncos I might argue this would be starting to wear thin on the tightly run ship from Foxborough, but alas the Broncos are terrible. But wait, the Patriots are without Gilmore and Cam Newton again, and we watched them struggling to score at all against the Chiefs last week, despite the Chiefs porous run defense. The Broncos are no Chiefs, but that’s a pretty good indication eight points is too high, as the Broncos aren’t the only team in this match up trotting out a back up QB.
Postponed. Replay TBD.
Los
Angeles Chargers 1-3
(+7.5)
@ New Orleans Saints 2-2
(51):
Saints
28-24 Saints 30-27 OT
Monday, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A Monday Night match up between two teams no one in the world can figure out. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 or 0-4, and have lost their three games by an average of 5 ppg, including an OT loss and a game in which they led heading into the 4th quarter. The Saints are lost without Michael Thomas, which has exposed the 41-year old Drew Brees. Thomas could be back Monday night and Joey Bosa might not, which would be a deadly combination for the Chargers or a wash. These two teams also have winning records ATS despite not having winning records in reality, which tells me the Chargers cover because 7.5 points is a bunch and the Saints can’t stop anyone from scoring (30.8 ppg).
Another opportunity missed as this game should've made the cut over the Buffalo Bills to cover their game as the final Top 5 pick of the week, because this game needed OT and 7.5 points never felt right. In fact, the Saints trailed 20-10 at halftime. Meanwhile, my final Top 5 is getting slaughtered.
Buffalo
Bills 4-0 *(-4)
@ Tennessee Titans 3-0
(49):
Bills
28-23 Titans 42-16
Tuesday, 7:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Mostly clear; low 70s)
Keys: Are you ready for some...Tuesday Night Football? What the hell? Nothing says 2020 like Tuesday Night Football. The Titans have been spinning in circles since their covid-19 diagnoses and a surprise early bye week, while the Bills have been re-branding as a high-powered offense at nearly 31 ppg (30.8 ppg, 5th) in the meantime. The Bills can also still stop the run (8th), which means the rusty Derrick Henry might have some trouble getting going, which means the Titans will have trouble getting going. Lock it up.
Ugh. Looks like the extra covid rest worked and it looks like I can't call Tuesday Night games, either. The Bills struggled to adapt to Tuesday Night Football like the rest of us, turning the ball over three times, including two Josh Allen INTs.
*NOTE: This game might have been BUF -8, but was not recorded into the team template for the following week. In othwer words, the BUF -4 number might have come from the template and been erroneous. My apologies, but PFM will treat the -4 v. -8 as the same number because the results were the same.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) THURSDAY NIGHT EDITION coming Thursday!
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