Miami Dolphins 0-2 (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-1 (48.5): Jaguars 28-23
Thursday, 8:20 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 20% rain; high 70s)
Keys: It’s a TNF battle in Florida, the state that reminds us of anything but football and sunshine these days. It’s also a battle of two mediocre football teams, one led by a guy that’s blowing our minds in Gardner Minshew and one that has occasionally blown our minds in the past in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Truth be told these are two decent teams. The Jaguars have played much better than expected and faced solid competition (IND; TEN); the same could be said about the Dolphins, but more so referencing the solid competition (BUF; NE) more so than exceeding expectations. I’m a little surprised the Dolphins are getting three points on the road, because they’re worse than Jacksonville on paper and they’re even worse in reality. The opening line suggests an even match, but I don’t buy it; even the shakeup at center shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Jaguars. Miami could have trouble against the Jaguars defensive front, and the Jaguars offensive weapons have been playing well, not to mention Minshew, who’s already thrown six TDs (and two INTs). Throw a few bucks on that over, too.
Chicago Bears 2-0 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (47.5): Falcons 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Bears are 2-0, and have played relatively well, but let’s be honest, the competition hasn’t been all-world (DET; NYG), while the Falcons have faced the Seahawks and just last week v. Dallas became the first team in 441 games of NFL history to lose despite scoring 39 points and not committing a TO. The Bears can’t score enough points to keep pace with the Falcons at home and that’s pretty much it.
Los Angeles Rams 2-0 (+2.5) @ *Buffalo Bills 2-0 (46.5): Bills 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: I’m nervous about making this one of PFM’s Top 5 locks of the week, because this Bills offense is rolling, but this Rams defense is gelling by the week, and their strong secondary backs the best defensive player in the NFL in defensive linemen Aaron Donald. Josh Allen might not get loose, and if he does, he should be well covered. The Bills running game could get loose, but Donald can blow anything up. No, this game comes down to the Bills defense, which has been even more impressive than the offense, although expected, and should out-match a nearly as impressive Rams offense.
Washington Football Team 1-1 (+7) @ Cleveland Browns 1-1 (45): Browns 26-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The WFT offense won’t be scoring much Sunday so it’s really just up to the Browns offense to score enough points against a solid Washington defense. Is that sound enough analysis? The Browns could have trouble going right, so they might attack Odell Beckham Jr.’s side with some fierceness to not only take advantage of Washington’s weak side, but also to continue a ridiculous trend to keep him happy.
Tennessee Titans 2-0 (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 0-2 (49): Titans 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings defense is no longer formidable and the offense is too inconsistent to beat the Titans, who despite having an easier schedule thus far, are nearly three-point favorites on the road because of the former. I’m not quite sure why the O/U is so high, as these two ground attacks should chew the clock, but my O/U track record thus far didn’t warrant a Top 5 lock of the week.
Las Vegas Raiders 2-0 (+5.5) @ New England Patriots 1-1 (47.5): Patriots 22-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Patriots came up a few yards short of starting 2-0 last week, and the Raiders are really banged up, but the Patriots strongest aspect this season has been their running game and they’ll be without center David Andrews Sunday, so no matter what match-up you want to key in on 5.5 points seems like a stretch.
San Francisco 1-1 (-3.5) @ New York Giants 0-2 (41.5): 49ers 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The 49ers went from Super Bowl contenders to #1 draft pick contenders overnight after last week’s fate of attrition. San Francisco was already without the league's best TE and now they’re without the league’s best pass rusher, not to mention several other key players, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo. So how are they 3.5-point favorites on the road for an intercontinental 10am game? The Giants were that bad with Saquon Barkley, and now he’s gone for the season, too.
Cincinnati Bengals 0-2 (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 0-2 (47.5): Eagles 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 70% rain; high 60s)
Keys: Both of these teams were filled with promise entering 2020, but only one expected to struggle. These two teams seem to be going in opposite directions, but stumbling just the same. The Bengals have shown sparks on defense and offense, but have sputtered in both games. The Eagles are banged up already, both physically and mentally, and Carson Wentz’s FCS is really beginning to show. I suppose the Eagles are favored because they’re home and angry, but Philadelphia has been outscored 64-19 since the end of the first half against Washington Week 1, so I’m leaning towards the rookie Joe Burrow to cover this one.
Houston Texans 0-2 (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0 (45): Steelers 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Deshaun Watson is the victim of giant holes in his offensive line that force him to scramble before making his first read on nearly every snap, and he doesn’t have Deandre Hopkins to bail him out anymore, so do we really expect anything different this week against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL? Perhaps. The Texans have played the toughest schedule by a long shot so far this season (BAL; KC), which is why they’re ranking out as one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks. The Steelers have had things relatively easy, but personnel tells the story here. There will be too much Watt-age (sorry) Sunday, and someone will make the big play to impress their sibling, but who will it be? Likely TJ the Younger, who has more help and has been much better anyway. Houston’s inexperienced LBs won’t help that second level much, so you can expect the Steelers to outpace the Texans, who will be running for their lives all day, and by “Texans” and “their” I mean Watson. They say money buys you happiness...
New York Jets 0-2 (+11.5)* @ Indianapolis Colts 1-1 (44): Colts 23-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: This one is pretty simple. The Colts have largely underachieved in 2020 and I put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the guy responsible for most of San Diego’s underachieving all those years: Philip “Cry Me A” Rivers. The Jets are flat out one of the worst teams in the NFL, coached by the most miserable human being in football this side of Todd Haley and Jay Cutler, so why would they be a Top 5 lock of the week? 11.5 points is ridiculous in almost NFL game, and the Colts haven’t played well enough to be favorites by even half that amount.
Carolina Panthers 0-2 (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 1-1 (43.5): Chargers 26-16
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Another game review, another star player out for the season. With Christian McCaffery gone for 2020 the Panthers can pack it up, because they weren’t winning the NFC South anyway, and now their chances of securing that ridiculous extra playoff spot have all but disappeared. Speaking of injured players, is the Chargers medical staff serious? They punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung injecting a shot into his ribs? Who the hell runs the show there, Dr. Nick??? There are easier ways to give up on Taylor like so many foolish teams have before Los Angeles, but this is taking things to new heights. The rookie Justin Herbert will start again in Taylor’s stead, but unlike last week, he’ll have more than 30 minutes to prepare and won’t be facing the Kansas City Chiefs, as the Run CMC-less Panthers have given up 32.5 ppg so far this season and won’t be scoring at nearly the same pace with McCaffery, although that wasn’t much, either (23.5 ppg).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1 (-5.5) @ Denver Broncos 0-2 (43): Buccaneers 27-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: The Golden Boy doesn’t fair well in Denver, but there’s no Von Miller to “chase” him. There’s also no Drew Lock, Davontae Harris, and there might be any Philip Lindsey or Jerry Jeudy, so the only thing Tom Brady might have to worry about Sunday is the thin air and his shaky history at Mile High Stadium.
Detroit Lions 0-2 (+5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 2-0 (55.5): Cardinals 31-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I’m sick of even analyzing the Detroit Lions. Suffice it to say I’ll be shocked if the Cardinals don’t cover these 5.5 points at home as Kyler Murray builds his MVP campaign. These teams average 49 ppg and give up an average of 51.5 ppg so I’m not sure how this O/U opened so high (lowest opening line was 51.5) and immediately settled at 55.5. The under almost made my Top 5 locks of the week, although my Top 5 record so far in 2020 is Lions-ish at best.
Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (+5) @ Seattle Seahawks 2-0 (57): Seahawks 30-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Partly cloudy; mid-60s)
Keys: The Cowboys needed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history to beat the Falcons last week after losing to the Rams Week 1 and Russell Wilson has two more incompletions so far this season than TD passes (11:9), hence the 5-point spread. On paper these two teams look like formidable opponents, but in reality, the Cowboys are wildly inconsistent, largely underachieving and have still refused to pay their supposed franchise QB, which has to tell you something. I’m reminded of Kirk Cousins, who despite also being a supposed franchise QB, was never paid by Washington, only to have Cousins end up with the Minnesota Vikings and a huge contract. How did that work out for Minnesota? Dak Prescott has tons of intangibles, and all signs point to him being a great human being, but the Cowboys don’t need that. The Cowboys need consistency and that lacks under Prescott’s leadership. It’s literally the opposite of the suddenly-swag-heavy Wilson, who could turn CenturyLink Field’s concession stand workers into All-Pro receivers while converting them to Christianity. Even Ezekiel Elliot will struggle Sunday, as the Seahawks LB core remains their only strong remnant from superior defenses past.
Green Bay Packers 2-0 (+3)* @ New Orleans Saints 1-1 (52.5)*: Packers 30-28
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Are they seriously giving Aaron Rodgers and the Packers three points on Turf Nation T5? While we’re at it, these teams score a combined 70 ppg while giving up an average of 29 ppg each, so is this O/U seriously at 52.5? Rarely, if ever, does one game warrant two Top-5 locks of the week, but I can’t help myself here. The questionable status of Davante Adams is not enough to give the Packers three points, nor is it enough to take 10 points off the game total for two teams that have combined with their opponents to average 62.5 points per game, and consistently through both weeks I might add. Taking the over is an even safer bet than taking the points, but I recommend doing both.
Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 (+3.5)* @ Baltimore Ravens 2-0 (54.5): Ravens 30-27
Monday, 8:15 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 40% rain; low 70s)
Keys: I don’t care how good the Ravens are, I’m never giving Patrick Mahomes 3.5 points. That’s like giving Jeff Bezos more money. That’s like giving Beyonce more bees. That’s like giving Andy Reid more food. They don’t need it. Both teams have beat up on the lowly Houston Texans by nearly identical scores, but the Chiefs needed OT to beat a Chargers team that had to start a rookie QB minutes before kickoff because the Chargers medical staff doesn’t know what they’re doing. Therein lies a key to the spread, in addition to a tale of two defenses – Baltimore’s is clearly superior. I can’t really imagine the Chiefs being brought to the brink two weeks in a row, but the scheduling gods can be cruel, and the Chargers are a stout defensive unit. Perhaps that plays into the Chiefs hands and they’re more prepared for the Ravens defense Monday night, but these Ravens seem like they’re on a mission and being home in the rain doesn’t hurt.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 3 #NFL Game Reviews coming by the Wednesday commute!
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