Houston Texans (+9) @ *Kansas City Chiefs (54.5): Chiefs 34-24 Chiefs 34-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: 60% chance of rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2020 season as defending champions, their first Super Bowl win in 50 years, behind the human rifle known as Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes took the NFL by storm in 2018, his "second" year, throwing 50 TD passes and running away with league MVP. When Mahomes went down with a knee injury a month into the 2019 season things looked bleak, but the rest is history. The Texans are no slouches themselves, and the nearly equally dynamic Deshaun Watson, fresh off a $156M contract extension, was the 2019 NFL Playoffs highest rated QB. The problem is Watson lost his most electrifying target in Deandre Hopkins to free agency, but Watson still averaged over nine ypa to his other WRs and will have Brandin Cooks in Hopkins' stead, although Cooks is already questionable for TNF. Mahomes didn't lose any targets as rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the much-hyped LSU RB taken in the first round by the Chiefs, replaces Damien Williams (opt-out). The Chiefs also lost right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, however, as Tardif, who has a medical degree, opted out after working on the Covid-19 front lines. The last time these teams faced off the Texans were up 24-0 with 11 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter of the AFC Divisional Round before the Chiefs went Mahomes and turned the game on its head winning 51-31. Expect more of the same on Opening night as the Chiefs have too many weapons and a far better and more opportunistic defense.
The Texans had a lead on the Chiefs once again Thursday night, but it was no 24-0 AFC Divisional lead, and within 10 minutes the game was tied and four minutes into the 4th quarter the game was 31-7 and out of reach. The Texans looked lost at first without Deandre Hopkins, while the Chiefs looked even scarier than last season with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire gaining 138 yards and a TD on 25 carries (5.5 ypc), several of which were failed attempts from the 1-yard line to secure CE-H’s second TD, which destroyed his ypc average by a full yard. The Texans committed the only TO (Watson INT), had more penalties (5-1) and were sacked four times en route to a widely-expected loss.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (49): Seahawks 27-24 Seahawks 38-25
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The first super spreader event of the season happens to be the first Sunday afternoon game on the season as the Seahawks travel from one corner of the country to the literal other corner of the country to face the Falcons. Good luck to us all. I'm half joking, because the Falcons aren't allowing fans in September and no one from Seattle is traveling to Georgia to watch the game in a hotel, but the end is nigh. The days of Russell Wilson being held back by a lack of weapons seems to be over with the emergence of DJ Metcalf, while the Falcons, despite having had outside weapons for years, have never consistently been able take advantage of them. That’s to say nothing of an elite Seahawks secondary that could keep those weapons in check. Perhaps the recently signed Todd Gurley gets a spark from being back home and takes some pressure off of the Falcons passing game, but it won’t matter much in Week 1.
The Falcons were never in this game at home against a team traveling across the country, something that used to be an automatic advantage. A lack of fans certainly made a difference, but the biggest difference was Russell Wilson, who immediately picked up on another MVP campaign going 31-35 for 322 passing yards and four TDs; Wilson also led the team in rushing, albeit for only 29 yards. Matt Ryan (450 passing yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT) actually out-passed Wilson, but clearly in an effort to keep pace with DangeRuss and the Seahawks.
New York Jets (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills (39.5): Bills 24-20 Bills 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 50% rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Bills come into 2020 pretty excited about their chances, especially considering Tom Brady is finally out of the division. Buffalo was up 16-0 on the Houston Texans in the Wildcard Round after a 10-6 season, only to squander the lead away as the spotlight began to burn holes into second-year QB Josh Allen. The Jets have some talent, too, but not enough in the right spots yet, so the song remains the same. Look for the Bills to make a statement in the weather Week 1 as they begin their quest to reclaim the AFC East, but a smaller statement than 6.5 points.
It’s safe to say the Bills made a statement bigger than 6.5 points as the Bills led 27-10 with under five minutes remaining in the game. For the first time in almost 30 years the Bills might be a force to be reckoned with, especially Josh Allen, despite losing two fumbles, who threw for two TDs and ran for another proving the second QB in NFL history to start his career with 30+ passing TDs and 15+ rushing TDs is no fluke. Looks like Allen won’t be returning to the farm in California any time soon.
Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings (45.5): Vikings 23-21 Packers 43-34
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Home makes all the difference in this game, as these two NFC North divisional opponents come into Sunday relatively evenly-matched, save the Vikings clear advantage(s) on the defensive side of the ball. It’s still hard to see Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and a solid healthy offense losing by a FG or more to a team they’re so familiar with. The Vikings are loaded on both sides of the ball, so it’s possible, but this is a preseason-less Week 1 game against a formidable divisional opponent, and despite the weapons all over these two offenses, several factors could easily play into the under.
I called this game about as well as Kirk Cousins played. You like that?! I don’t, and the supposedly washing up Aaron Rodgers was back to peak ARod, throwing darts to the tune of four TDs on 364 passing yards, two of those TDs and 144 of those passing yards going to a healthy Davante Adams. The other Aaron, Aaron Jones, the supposed heir to the Packers praise throne, was simply an afterthought rushing for 66 yards and a TD. The Vikings looked awful, save Dalvin Cook (50 rushing yards; 2 TDs), who didn’t get more than 12 times due to the deficit, and Adam Thielen (110 receiving yars; 2 TDs), both of which we expect greatness from anyway. Cousins looked largely pedestrian, with most of his stats padded in the 4th quarter in a failed attempt to get back in the game. I hope you didn’t take my advice on this game – it was the largest point differential between the predicted and actual scores of Week 1 (33 points).
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) @ New England Patriots (43): Patriots 24-20 Patriots 21-11
Sunday, 1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 70% rain; low 70s)
Keys: So begins the post-Tom Brady era. For those outside of New England it’s a time to rejoice. For those within New England, well, it’s a time to rejoice. Brady’s decline in recent years was as clear as the denial in most Patriots fans about his impending departure, and I live here so I can say these things. The Dolphins come into 2020 hopeful, although that hope is largely hinged to Tua Tagovailoa, who the Dolphins claim isn’t playing any time soon. We’ll see about that. Head coach Brian Fuentes leads a much-improved Miami team into rainy Foxborough to face a Patriots team with no Tom Brady on the roster for the first time in 20 years. The New England defense won’t be quite at their 2019 level, but their secondary remains elite, so they’ll find a way to contain the Dolphins offense. For the Patriots offense it’ll be interesting to see Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels evolve from Brady to Cam Newton, as well as to see what secrets Kyle Van Noy holds.
Cam Newton stole the show, both on the field and on his neck, with an unsustainable 15 carries for 75 yards and two TDs, which was the difference in a game where the Dolphins only gained 269 yards and gave up three TOs, all three Ryan Fitzpatrick INTs. Paging Tua Tagovailoa...
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)* @ Washington Football Team (42): Eagles 27-17 Football Team 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 60% rain; high 70s)
Keys: Hail to the...people who finally made the right decision to ax that terrible racist team name. Washington is making improvements on and off the field, but it’s not enough to beat the talented Eagles Sunday, who remain a force on the defensive front while utilizing a two-TE offensive set that’s reminiscent of a certain team Eagles fans would kill me if I were to compare them to. Either way, you can feel confident about the Eagles and the over here, no matter how banged up or disgruntled the Eagles may seem.
There’s nothing like calling the exact score of the game, but getting the teams twisted. It happened to me three times this week. The Eagles led 17-0 for nearly the entire first half before the WFT scored 27 unanswered points to spoil opening week for the hopeful Eagles and make a fool out of me. I picked this game as one of my five locks of the week, only to regret my decision the minute Lane Johnson was ruled out. Pick integrity is a mother...well, you get the point. Carson Wentz was under fire all day, getting hit 15 times sacked eight, resulting in three TOs (2 INTs; 1 FUM). You can argue Wentz’s injury-prone nature isn’t a bad thing, because the Eagles won a Super Bowl after he got hurt, but that would be ridiculous. The Eagles need Wentz upright and healthy and Sunday got off to a terrible start. Give the game ball to the WFT defense, because the offense didn’t do anything.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Carolina Panthers (47.5): Panthers 24-23 Raiders 34-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 50% rain; low 80s)
Keys: There are certain things I never saw happening in my lifetime: The legalization of marijuana and a professional sports team moving to Las Vegas. Don’t get me wrong, I support both, but the Raiders – of all teams – moving to Las Vegas has to be one of the strangest things to happen in sports in my lifetime. The Panthers have begun the post-Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era, but they’ve been preparing for this since last season on the offensive end, led by arguably the best RB in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey; the defense also remains solid. The Raiders might be the better team on paper, but I don’t buy them winning by three or more points in tropical conditions.
This game featured eight lead changes, yet didn’t necessarily go down to the wire. The game featured similar TOP (31:12 to 28:48), total yards (388:372) and plays (65:61), nearly identical ypp (6.1:6.0), rushing yards (133:128) and first downs (23:22), and zero TOs. The Raiders went up 34-30 with four minutes remaining on Josh Jacobs’ (93 rushing yards) third rushing TD, but the Panthers final two drives fizzled out and the Las Vegas Raiders secured their first win in their new city. The weather was never really a factor and what I thought would go slightly under ended up with 64 combined points.
Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (45): Colts 27-20 Jaguars 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 80% rain; high 80s)
Keys: Is everyone really this excited about Philip Rivers coming to the Colts or are the Jaguars really just that bad? You can’t blame Colts fans for being excited about Rivers after the seemingly early departure of former franchise QB Andrew Luck, but it’s not Rivers you should be paying attention to; it’s the elite offensive line and the RB combo of Marlon Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor. This Jaguars team is mediocre on offense and a shell of their former defensive unit, which might explain the line, but the Colts running game keeps the clock ticking and eight points on the road in Week 1 is just too much, especially for a dome team in the pouring rain.
Here’s the second of three games in which I nailed the score, but flipped the teams. Barely anyone had Jacksonville covering, let alone winning, but the Jaguars won handily behind the performance of Gardner Minshew (19-20 passing; 3 TDs; 142.3 Passer Rating), who must have Jaguars brass thinking, “Why the hell did we ever sign Nick Foles?” The Colts lost Marlon Mack for the season early in the game, which probably got in their heads, but Indianapolis still had Nyheim Hines (2 TDs) and the much-hyped 41st pick Jonathan Taylor, yet couldn’t overcome. The blame goes to Philip Rivers, supposed savior in Indianapolis, who threw three INTs and looked a lot like the guy who lost a lot of games for the Chargers in the same fashion. Rivers wasn’t even sacked if you were looking to the offensive line for excuses, unlike Minshew, who was sacked four times. The day belonged to the Gardner Sunday, as he planted seeds to 10 WRs Sunday, leading to three TDs despite not a single WR gaining over 47 yards. What a league.
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Detroit Lions (44.5): Lions 24-20 Bears 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Bears have already fallen off defensively, save Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, and everyone knows about Mitch(ell) Trubisky, save Allen Robinson, so once again we’ll see if Matthew Stafford can take advantage of above-average protection and weapons on the outside and save the Lions from another season of mediocrity.
“...so once again we’ll see if Matthew Stafford can take advantage of above-average protection and weapons on the outside and save the Lions from another season of mediocrity.”
Once again we’ve seen the answer is likely “No”. The Lions squandered a 23-6 4th-quarter lead by letting Mitchell Trubisky throw three 4th-quarter TDs and watched the Lions score 21 unanswered points to steal the win in Detroit.
Cleveland Browns (+8)* @ Baltimore Ravens (48.5): Ravens 27-23 Ravens 38-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 60% rain; low 80s)
Keys: Get your popcorn ready because this Browns thing is about to take off or crash into a wall. The Ravens, on the other hand, are a consistent Hollywood Brown away from arguably being the best team in the NFL. The Browns crush on the defensive front, have the skill players to blow most teams off the ball, and a solid offensive line. However, Baker Mayfield hasn’t proven a thing, the coaching staff is different again, and part of that offensive line is a rookie left tackle, despite the accolades. The Ravens excel on both sides of the ball, and 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson could be the most dynamic player in the NFL, but eight points on opening week against a talented team with a ton to prove seems steep.
It looks like the Browns, or at least Baker Mayfield (189 passing yards; 1 TD; 1 INT), has already crashed into that wall I spoke of in Week 1. So did one of my five locks of the week, the sad prediction in question in which I claimed the Browns would cover. Odell Beckham Jr. (3 receptions for 22 receiving yards) showed up in blue gear, which is all one needs to know going forward. The Browns committed three TOs while Lamar Jackson (325 total yards) threw three TD passes and it seems the direction of these two team’s seasons is about to go the direction that this game went. Please tell me you’ve seen the pointing Spider Man NFL meme where several Spider Men labeled with various Cleveland Browns years are all pointing to each other. The internet, unlike the Browns, remains undefeated.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) v. Cincinnati Bengals (43): Chargers 23-21 Chargers 16-13
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Chance rain; mid-80s)
Keys: It’s a new era for both teams coming into 2020, including a new $5B stadium the Chargers share with the Rams in Los Angeles, although SoFi won’t be hosting fans any time soon. Still, the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert in the first round to replace franchise QB Philip Rivers, although the Chargers shouldn’t be seeing him playing anytime soon. It's still a new era. The Bengals usher in the Joe Burrow Era, the 2020 #1 pick and National Champion QB from LSU, and savior to one of the several floundering organizations across the league. The Chargers are their usual talent-loaded selves on both sides of the ball, but this year there’s no Rivers to blame things on. The Bengals have a solid defense themselves, so the season again likely rests upon the relatively new Bengals coaching staff and the rookie Burrow’s ability to get the ball the Bengals outside weapons, assuming they can stay healthy.
Joe Burrow scored his first NFL TD, threw his first NFL INT, had his first meaningful NFL 4th-quarter comeback drive and got his first taste of the NFL and what it’s like to be a Cincinnati Bengal. After attempting a come-from-behind win/tie late in the 4th quarter with a 14-play drive that gained 69 yards in just over three minutes, the Bengals offense stalled and had to settle for a 21-yard FG. Randy Bullock, who was 2/2 with a 50-yard FG earlier in the game, promptly came out and badly missed the 21-yard chip shot that would’ve tied the game. To add injury to insult Bullock grabbed his leg in what Twitter proclaimed was a fake injury. There’s no doubt everyone around Cincinnati was hurting, that’s for sure.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints (49): Saints 30-27 Saints 34-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Tom Brady Era begins in Tampa Bay, and what do you know, he just turned 43. Things aren’t any younger on the other side of the field, as Drew Brees comes into 2020 a ripe 41 years old himself. Can we even grasp these two QBs total 84 combined years of age? The funniest part of all is they’re literally battling one another for various all-time passing records so it’ll be as funny as it is interesting to see who bows out first. The Bucs are loaded on the offensive side of the ball and are serviceable on defense, but the Saints are home Week 1...actually that doesn’t really matter for now. Regardless, the Saints are loaded everywhere, but especially on the defensive front, which could be a problem for the Golden Boy. The Saints are Super Bowl contenders according to Las Vegas, while the same sharps didn’t move the needle for Tampa Bay after the Bucs signed Brady and Gronk. Go figure.
This game, brought to you by AARP, proved to be almost exactly what most expected. A mediocre team in the Buccaneers led by a 43-year old QB with a new team relying partly upon a washed-up TE in Rob Gronkowski taking $10M away from someone more useful against arguably the best team in the NFC. What no one expected was Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians to call it like it was, publicly criticizing the future HoF QB for his mistakes. New Orleans was out-gained, yet led 34-17 midway through the 4th quarter, a clear indication of Tampa Bay’s three TOs (2 INTs; 1 FUM) to the Saints zero. No one on the Buccaneers played particularly well, including an offensive line that surrendered three sacks, but the worst part is, neither did the Saints.
Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers (48): 49ers 26-23 Cardinals 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The 49ers are defending NFC Champions and come into the season with a similar look - strong with elite talent on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals come into 2020 with a new elite WR for 2019 RoY Kyler Murray in Deandre Hopkins, a necessary addition for the development of Murray, although it comes at the expense of David Johnson. The Cardinals defense isn’t bad, but the 49ers offense is prone to stall; the Cardinals can score in bunches, but the 49ers defense balls. Dr. Suess rhymes aside, no matter how exciting the Cardinals offense might be, these 49ers are one of the three best defenses in the NFL, especially up front. You might think that would flush Murray out into open space, causing the 49ers fits, but their ends are too ,fast and talented; then there’s the matter of the 49ers second level defense. Regardless, the 49ers giving a TD to a scrappy divisional opponent opening week doesn’t sit well with me.
I almost picked the Cardinals over the Eagles as my 5th lock of the week, and now in retrospect I wish I had. Not the moneyline, but certainly the seven points. Arizona not only covered; they took it to the 49ers. San Francisco lost George Kittle early, which turned their offense upside down, but doesn’t have anything to do with a San Francisco defense that let Kyle Murray (321 total yards; 2 total TDs; 1 INT) run wild, literally. Had it not been for a series of kneel-downs Murray would’ve rushed for over 100 yards. So much for my second-level defense theory for the 49ers. This was a funny game study into QBR v. Passer Rating. Jimmy Garoppolo (259 passing yards; 2 TDs) ended the game with 103.0 passer rating and a 35.2 QBR; Murray finished with a 78.1 passer rating and an 85.0 QBR. One of those has to go and it’s not QBR.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (51.5)*: Cowboys 31-30 Rams 20-17
Sunday, 8:20 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Rams host dinner at their new house Sunday night and it’s only fitting their guests are the other most hyper-talented underachieving team in the league. The Rams can’t dig a financial hole deep enough it seems, and beyond a $5B new house, or should I say duplex, the Rams just dove deep on CB Jalen Ramsey, too. All power to the man, but Ramsey’s contract is the third giant contract the Rams have given out in less than a year (Aaron Donald; Jared Goff) and history isn’t kind to such franchises, especially in a market where the Sun never stops shining and the beaches are fifteen minutes away. I digress. The Cowboys come into 2020 with high hopes, yet again, and rookie CeeDee Lamb just may put them over the edge, while the Rams could have an addition by subtraction situation on their hands with the departure of Todd Gurley. Regardless, both teams come into the game loaded with talent and chips on their shoulders bigger than their respective stadiums, but the Rams offensive line could be their Achilles Heal, and that could be bad news. Expect fireworks at the new digs Sunday night with the sounds of zero fans clapping. Hey, at least they can’t boo the equality celebration. What a sad world we live in.
Sometimes I think Jerry Jones sacrifices wins to keep his team in the headlines all week by paying the officials to sabotage his team. Wins are great, but they’re boring after a day or two. Controversy lasts all week and beyond, and the Cowboys have that coming out of their ears. Of course the game had to come down to a controversial offensive pass interference call, which at best was a non-call at that point in the game and at worst an incredible acting job by Jalen Ramsey. Now we know why Ramsey got that Will Smith money. PFM took it on the chin with these five locks of the week as well as the O/Us, and few were more glaring than my proclamation the game would more than hit the over of 51.5 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)* @ New York Giants (47.5): Steelers 27-20 Steelers 26-16
Monday, 7:15 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clear; low 60s)
Keys: The first thing that comes to mind with these MNF games is, why? No Browns at Ravens? No Buccaneers at Saints? Is Ben Roethlisberger’s return that prime time? Perhaps it’s the Steelers All-Pro defensive front responsible for the prime time interest, which is going to be a nightmare for the Giants entire offense. It’s not going to be fun watching Saquon Barkley rush for nearly 200 yards without breaking the line of scrimmage, unless Daniel Jones can get the ball off quickly to his above-average WRs and prevent that from happening. Either way, the Steelers have enough power on the offensive side of the ball to counter anything the Giants can come up with. This will be one of the few games this season where the road team giving six points makes sense.
Ahhh, there’s nothing like following up a blunder with a top five locks win. The Giants scored with under two minutes left in the 4th quarter to make the score seem closer, but the subsequent failed two-point conversion was more indicative of the Giants performance throughout the night. Saquon Barkley had a predictably poor game, but I don’t think anyone predicted Giants QB Daniel Jones would have more rushing yards (22) than Barkley (16). The Steelers offense didn’t blow anyone off their couches, but they did enough to help a defense that dominated the Giants all night, although it’s clear New York isn’t exactly a barometer.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos (41.5): Titans 23-20 Titans 16-14
Monday, 10:10 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: The Broncos season could be over before it begins with the potential season-ending ankle injury to Von Miller, which could render an elite second-level defense almost useless. The Titans, who added Jadeveon Clowney, are fresh off beating the mighty Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round and making their first AFC Championship game in 20 years, where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs 35-24. The Broncos have talent, and the high mountain air is a lot different then the Tennessee Valley, but the Titans are trying to bully teams and prove they belong and the Von Miller injury is just too big to overcome so quickly.
I, like the rest of the world, thought the absence of Von Miller combined with the Titans newfound confidence mixed with the young energy between Broncos QB Drew Lock and rookie WR Jerry Jeudy would equate to something more than a snooze-fest in the second Monday Night Football game, but alas, it might’ve been the worst game of the week. I don’t think Booger could’ve made the game worse. Stephen Gostkowski, recently added to the New England Patriots South, I mean the Tennessee Titans, missed three FGs and an extra point before, wait for it, hitting the game-winning FG with 17 seconds remaining in the game to potentially salvage his job and maybe his career. Other than a costly Jeudy drop we can put on the back burner for now, Gostkowski’s continued inexplicable drop off a cliff is about the only thing worth talking about in this game. After the performances of Gostkowski, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are we still questioning Bill Belichick’s process?
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Saturday!
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