Cincinnati
Bengals 0-1
(+6)
@
Cleveland Browns 0-1 (43.5): Browns 23-21
Thursday, 8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Gusty; high 50s)
Keys: It’s hard to believe the Browns are already facing a do-or-die situation Week 2, but it’s not hyperbole. It's not just a mental thing either, where, you know, a younger former Heisman trophy winner also drafted #1 in Bengals QB Joe Burrow comes into Cleveland from the other side of the same state and steals Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns thunder, causing Browns management and fan base alike to question their football existence. No, more realistically, the Browns can’t afford to start the season 0-2 in a division with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, especially if the Bengals were to somehow figure it out earlier than expected and already have a one-game advantage on Cleveland. The Bengals probably aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, but if Burrow quickly develops chemistry with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon can stay healthy, the Browns could find themselves the 4th-best team in a four-team AFC North and quite irrelevant two years after drafting Mayfield and one after trading for Odell Beckham Jr. Unless Cleveland can turn this around at home on the short week they might become bigger fools than Progressive Insurance, so look for them to do just that, but look for Cincinnati to cover.
New York Giants 0-1 (+5) @ Chicago Bears 1-0 (42): Bears 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: The Giants were throttled by the best defense in the NFL last week, while the Bears had to come from behind late in the game to beat the woeful Detroit Lions. In other words, neither team showed us much, because the Bears defense are no Steelers defense, except Chicago does have two of the best front seven defenders in all of the NFL in Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. Therein lies the key to the game: this Giants offensive line is abysmal and can’t help Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones, at least not Sunday, and while Giants fans could argue the same thing from their perspective regarding the Bears offensive line, the Giants defensive front of Lorenzo Carter, Dexter Lawrence and Dalvin Tomlinson isn’t quite the same.
Atlanta Falcons 0-1 (+4.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 0-1 (53.5): Cowboys 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys laid an egg Sunday night in prime time, partly because the Rams defense stepped up in their new empty home, but more so because the Cowboys are already beat up and overrated. Dallas lost Leighton Vander Esch indefinitely Week 1 and Tyron Smith is questionable after Dallas already lost Sean Lee and La’el Collins to the IR in training camp. Amari Cooper is also questionable, which doesn’t bode well for Dak Prescott, who looked mediocre at best against what many consider to be a mediocre Rams defense. The Falcons are the Falcons, so expect them to either fall flat on their faces or take advantage of the turf and a decimated LB core and smoke the Cowboys off the field. Las Vegas obviously sees the former. I see the Falcons covering because the Cowboys already have issues.
Detroit Lions 0-1 (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers 1-0 (49.5)*: Packers 31-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Aaron Rodgers seems to be back in canon form, Davante Adams is healthy and the it’ll be a balmy 68ยบ with the wind blowing from the south with Matthew Stafford & Co. on the other side of the field. In other words this O/U is toast. This could be my top lock of the week, because the way Rodgers played last week combined with these two mediocre defenses, we could approach that O/U by halftime.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0 (-4) @ Tennessee Titans 1-0 (43.5): Titans 28-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The eight-point underdog Jaguars surprised a lot of people last week, but it was the hyper-efficient Gardner Minshew and the anything-but-efficient Philip Rivers more than anything else. Losing Marlon Mack for the season almost instantly didn’t help. The Titans didn’t look great, certainly not AFC Championship form, but they left 10 points on the board due to Stephen Gostkowski’s missing confidence, so 26-14 looks better than the actual 16-14 game it seems they squeaked out in Denver. Minshew is facing a better defense on the road and the Titans are facing a much easier run defense, so if Derrick Henry can get going and open up play action it’ll be lights out for Jacksonville.
Minnesota Vikings 0-1 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 0-1 (48.5): Colts 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: A tale of two teams with high hopes coming into the season in danger of starting the season the dreaded 0-2 and having your season almost over before it begins. The Vikings defense looks nothing like the old squad as the offense continues to sputter in key moments, while the heavily-favored Colts lost to the Jaguars by a TD despite nearly doubling their production. The loss of Marlon Mack isn’t a death sentence for the Colts, and the Indianapolis offensive line should manhandle this Jaguars front four, so look for Indianapolis to hit the turf running.
Buffalo Bills 1-0 (-5.5) @ Miami Dolphins 0-1 (40.5): Buffalo 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 50% storms; high 80s)
Keys: They’ve already held the Super Bowl parade in Buffalo, partly because their fans are that thirsty and partly because the snow doesn’t melt until June so they wanted to get ahead of it. In all seriousness the Bills look good – better than they’ve looked in two decades. Josh Allen is only the 2nd QB in NFL history to start his career with 30+ passing TDs and 15+ rushing TDs, which continued Week 1, and Tre’Davious White calmed the nerves of 4 million greater Erie County/Toronto area Bills fans by signing an extension two weeks ago that’ll keep him ball-hawking in Buffalo for years to come. The Bills are mudders and built for the storm about to hit Miami Sunday, so we can make any Dolphins analyses we want, but the truth is, these aren’t your older brother’s Bills.
San Francisco 49ers 0-1 (-7) @ New York Jets 0-1 (41.5): 49ers 24-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The 49ers already have issues at CB (Richard Sherman & Jason Verrett), TE (George Kittle) and QB (Jimmy Garappolo...jk), but their issues pale in comparison to woes facing the New York Jets. Adam Gase is the most over-hyped coach since the last young white guy that didn’t deserve the chance they got over myriad other qualified coaches. How effective is this Rooney Rule anyway? Gase is destroying the wasn’t-that-promising-anyway career of Sam Darnold and Le’Veon Bell just hates the dude. Bell looks washed up, but a small dip looks like a cliff-dive under Gase, and the way to squeeze the remaining juice out of Bell isn’t by giving him weird looks and passive-aggressively benching him. Gase must have some Putin-level blackmail on Woody Johnson or else why the hell is he still coaching the Jets? Is the baby powder deadly and Gase knows it?? Did Gase cry in the bathtub while using the no-tears shampoo??? WHAT DOES HE KNOW ABOUT WOODY?!?!
Los Angeles Rams 1-0 *(+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles 0-1 (45.5): Rams 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: Speaking of disappointments, I offer Exhibits K & L (If you’re keeping track that mean there are ten other disappointing teams in just the eight games I’ve analyzed this week). The winners of last week’s DALvLAR game was Sean McVay, who brilliantly slowed down the game and simply kept the ball from the Cowboys for nearly 36 minutes, and of course Aaron Donald, destroyer of worlds. The Rams didn’t produce any fireworks on opening night, but the Eagles did everything they could to give the game to Washington last week, including an abysmal 2nd-half performance by Carson Wetnz, so I’d say any bet where the Rams simply have win or even just tie seems like a great bet to me.
Denver Broncos 0-1 (+8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0 (40): Steelers 23-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: This is a battle of two good defenses; OK, one good defense and one great defense. The Steelers didn’t have much of a test v. the Giants, but Denver isn’t that much better offensively, especially after the injury to Phillip Lindsay. The Steelers are home with an elite defensive front attacking a second-year QB whose most electrifying weapon is an exceptional rookie in mistake-prone Jerry Jeudy, so it doesn’t look good for the Broncos heading into Week 2.
Carolina Panthers 0-1 *(+8.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-1 (47.5): Panthers 26-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 40% storms; high 80s)
Keys: The focus all week has been the undressing of the infallible Tom Brady by the apparently out-of-pocket Bruce Arians. How quickly people forget Arians is the head coach and Brady is the dude who just got there, and by all expert accounts, isn’t really going to do anything more for them then Jameis Winston did. The Buccaneers offensive line is worse then New England’s from a year ago, the running game is the same if not worse than Brady was used to, and despite all the talent at wide out and TE, it’s never amounted to anything. As far as Arians goes, have we already forgotten “No risk it no biscuit”? That’s an Arians special, so wouldn’t that partially explain a QB that threw 30 INTs last year? So why does Winston get tossed into the trash? Winston certainly seemed like a fine fit, and it was his team. Brady went from the tightest naval ship in the NFL to a loosey-goosey pontoon boat while trading little underachieving playbook nerds for mercurial talents that might run the wrong patterns in key moments. Don’t expect this miracle turnaround Las Vegas has laid out and the public has bet up, because the conditions are rife for a ground-pounder, not to mention ducks, Chris Godwin isn’t even playing, and the Buccaneers strong defensive front could be neutralized by the Panthers offensive line.
Washington Football Team 1-0 (+7) @ Arizona Cardinals 1-0 (46.5): 28-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Football Team looked like things were going as expected until Carson Wentz turned into a pumpkin and Washington scored 27-unanswered 2nd half points to steal the win. The Cardinals kept up with the San Francisco 49ers all game and then took it to the 49ers in their own house, scoring 14 4th-quarter points, including a brilliant 22-yard scamper by Kyler Murray. Washington doesn’t even have any stars to go down early and make the game easier for Arizona, and Murray largely neutralizes any offensive line issues, so expect the Cardinals to dominate this game.
Kansas City Chiefs 1-0 (-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers 1-0 (47)*: Chiefs 26-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both teams were up to their old ways Week 1, with the Chiefs thoroughly dominating the Houston Texans while the Chargers eked out an uninspired “win” against a Cincinnati Bengals team that farted on three chances to take the lead as the game ended, then missed a 21-yard FG to tie it. The Chargers are loaded on offense, they just need to figure it out with new QB Tyrod Taylor, but they’re obviously not more talented than the mighty Chiefs, and while the Chargers defense is considerably better than Kansas City’s, especially along the defensive front, it’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes. But that doesn’t mean it’s hard to bet against those nine points, especially with Los Angeles trying to make a statement in their new home, fans or not.
Baltimore Ravens 1-0 (-7.5) @ Houston Texans 0-1 (50)*: Ravens 31-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I took it on the chin betting O/Us last week so it’s only fitting I chose three top five pick using the O/U. The Texans clearly have to figure out life after Deandre Hopkins, but if anyone can figure it out it’s the dynamic Deshaun Watson, outplayed by few QBs these days, except for the guy who just happens to be on the other side of the field. Suffice it to say I don’t expect the Texans to beat the Ravens Sunday, but Baltimore could score 35 points themselves; do we really think Watson, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller and David Johnson will be held to fewer than two TDs? I didn’t think so.
New England Patriots 1-0 (+4) @ Seattle Seahawks 1-0 (44.5): Seahawks 24-21
Sunday, 8:20 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Clearing; mid-60s)
Keys: The Patriots have morphed into a college team from the mid-90s behind a solid offensive line and QB Cam Newton, who carried the ball 15 times last week, the second most carries in his career. The Patriots defense also remains solid, with an elite secondary capable of shutting down Seattle’s outside weapons. So the game comes down to whether New England can run on Bobby Wagner and/or if Bill Belichick can come up with a plan to slow down Russell Wilson, who week after week continues to prove he’s actually the best overall QB in the NFL. Get used to the Patriots being dogs once in a while, especially on the road against QBs like Russell Wilson, so perhaps this is a chance to make some money, whether New England wins or not.
New Orleans Saints 1-0 (-5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders 1-0 (48.5): Saints 30-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If a team moves from Oakland to Las Vegas and builds a giant new stadium, but there are no fans inside, does it make a noise? Well, technically yes, because they’ll be pumping in artificial noise. The moment is finally here. Las Vegas. NFL. New team. New city. New stadium. Party. Gambling. And no fans. Now we also enter the era of visiting teams coming to Las Vegas and being lured by the lights, we’ll call it, and paying the next-day price. Perhaps we’re not quite there with Las Vegas essentially at half-capacity, and I’m not sure it would matter much against these Saints anyway. New Orleans has it’s own distractions, and more to the point, the Saints are the better team. Until Las Vegas returns to normal the city and the new stadium alike don’t offer much of an advantage.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 2 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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