Miami
Dolphins 0-2
(+3)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-1
(48.5):
Jaguars
28-23 Dolphins 31-13
Thursday, 8:20 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 20% rain; high 70s)
Keys: It’s a TNF battle in Florida, the state that reminds us of anything but football and sunshine these days. It’s also a battle of two mediocre football teams, one led by a guy that’s blowing our minds in Gardner Minshew and one that has occasionally blown our minds in the past in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Truth be told these are two decent teams. The Jaguars have played much better than expected and faced solid competition (IND; TEN); the same could be said about the Dolphins, but more so referencing the solid competition (BUF; NE) more so than exceeding expectations. I’m a little surprised the Dolphins are getting three points on the road, because they’re worse than Jacksonville on paper and they’re even worse in reality. The opening line suggests an even match, but I don’t buy it; even the shakeup at center shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Jaguars. Miami could have trouble against the Jaguars defensive front, and the Jaguars offensive weapons have been playing well, not to mention Minshew, who’s already thrown six TDs (and two INTs). Throw a few bucks on that over, too.
Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you.
Chicago
Bears 2-0
(+3)
@ Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (47.5):
Falcons
28-24 Bears 30-26
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Bears are 2-0, and have played relatively well, but let’s be honest, the competition hasn’t been all-world (DET; NYG), while the Falcons have faced the Seahawks and just last week v. Dallas became the first team in 441 games of NFL history to lose despite scoring 39 points and not committing a TO. The Bears can’t score enough points to keep pace with the Falcons at home and that’s pretty much it.
I hate Nick Foles. The dude failed me in fantasy football after making his name with the most efficient season in NFL history, he had no business winning the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots a few years ago, the guy stole money meant for Gardner Minshew, and Big Dick Nick comes into the effing game midway through and helps the Bears come back against the Falcons, their second such shocking loss in as many weeks. What do you say about a guy that can make the minimum and saves franchises, but the second you hand him the keys to the car he crashes into a wall? Better yet, what the hell do you say about the Falcons?
Los
Angeles Rams
2-0
(+2.5)
@ *Buffalo
Bills 2-0
(46.5):
Bills
24-21 Bills 35-32
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: I’m nervous about making this one of PFM’s Top 5 locks of the week, because this Bills offense is rolling, but this Rams defense is gelling by the week, and their strong secondary backs the best defensive player in the NFL in defensive linemen Aaron Donald. Josh Allen might not get loose, and if he does, he should be well covered. The Bills running game could get loose, but Donald can blow anything up. No, this game comes down to the Bills defense, which has been even more impressive than the offense, although expected, and should out-match a nearly as impressive Rams offense.
So much for the Bills defense. This game tied for the second-highest point total of Week 3 (DALvSEA scored 69 total points).
Washington
Football Team
1-1 (+7)
@
Cleveland Browns 1-1 (45):
Browns
26-20 Browns 34-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The WFT offense won’t be scoring much Sunday so it’s really just up to the Browns offense to score enough points against a solid Washington defense. Is that sound enough analysis? The Browns could have trouble going right, so they might attack Odell Beckham Jr.’s side with some fierceness to not only take advantage of Washington’s weak side, but also to continue a ridiculous trend to keep him happy.
Perhaps the Browns are finally coming to life as the Football Team finally comes back to Earth. Dwayne Haskins Jr. threw a TD with under two minutes remaining in the 1st quarter to put the WFT up 7-0. Then the wheels fell off as Haskins proceeded to throw three INTs. The Browns didn't do as much impressing as Haskins stunk up the joint.
Tennessee
Titans 2-0
(-2.5)
@ Minnesota Vikings 0-2
(49):
Titans
24-21 Titans 31-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings defense is no longer formidable and the offense is too inconsistent to beat the Titans, who despite having an easier schedule thus far, are nearly three-point favorites on the road because of the former. I’m not quite sure why the O/U is so high, as these two ground attacks should chew the clock, but my O/U track record thus far didn’t warrant a Top 5 lock of the week.
Imagine scoring 30 points against the Titans and losing because much-maligned K Stephen Gostowski hit six FGs? The same guy who almost lost a game earlier this season because he missed three FGs and a PAT (Note: The Titans still won). The Vikings have all but been eliminated from the playoffs already, which is interesting considering their expectations coming into 2020, but I suppose many in Minneapolis are still waiting for that supposed police defunding, so I guess the lesson is regular people rarely get what they expect, unless, of course, they expect the worst.
Las
Vegas Raiders 2-0
(+5.5)
@
New England Patriots 1-1 (47.5):
Patriots
22-20 Patriots 36-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Patriots came up a few yards short of starting 2-0 last week, and the Raiders are really banged up, but the Patriots strongest aspect this season has been their running game and they’ll be without center David Andrews Sunday, so no matter what match-up you want to key in on 5.5 points seems like a stretch.
The magic number was three: The number of Raiders TOs and also the number of Rex Burkhead TDs. I know, I'm technically a Patriots fan and even I have to remind myself Burkhead is on the team.
San
Francisco 1-1 (-3.5)
@ New York Giants 0-2
(41.5):
49ers
23-17 49ers 36-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The 49ers went from Super Bowl contenders to #1 draft pick contenders overnight after last week’s fate of attrition. San Francisco was already without the league's best TE and now they’re without the league’s best pass rusher, not to mention several other key players, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo. So how are they 3.5-point favorites on the road for an intercontinental 10am game? The Giants were that bad with Saquon Barkley, and now he’s gone for the season, too.
Of course the game Jimmy Garoppolo is injured Nick Mullens comes in and helps, optimal word, the 49ers score 36 points, their highest total of the season, second to 31 points last week, which the 49ers scored during a game in which Garoppolo was injured and had to leave the game. Seeing a pattern here? The MetLife turf monster struck again, which begs the question: How long before NFL teams boycott MetLife, home to the two worst teams in the NFL. If I were on the legal team for any NFL team playing at MetLife I'd argue for a forfeit, because you're likely winning anyway.
Cincinnati
Bengals 0-2
(+4.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 0-2
(47.5):
Eagles
24-23 TIE 23-23 OT
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 70% rain; high 60s)
Keys: Both of these teams were filled with promise entering 2020, but only one expected to struggle. These two teams seem to be going in opposite directions, but stumbling just the same. The Bengals have shown sparks on defense and offense, but have sputtered in both games. The Eagles are banged up already, both physically and mentally, and Carson Wentz’s FCS is really beginning to show. I suppose the Eagles are favored because they’re home and angry, but Philadelphia has been outscored 64-19 since the end of the first half against Washington Week 1, so I’m leaning towards the rookie Joe Burrow to cover this one.
Suffice it to say I almost nailed this game. As much as I want to blame Carson Wentz (55%; 1 TD; 2 INTs), his seven-yard scamper tied the game with 21 seconds left in regulation.
Houston
Texans 0-2
(+4)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0
(45):
Steelers
27-24 Steelers 28-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Deshaun Watson is the victim of giant holes in his offensive line that force him to scramble before making his first read on nearly every snap, and he doesn’t have Deandre Hopkins to bail him out anymore, so do we really expect anything different this week against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL? Perhaps. The Texans have played the toughest schedule by a long shot so far this season (BAL; KC), which is why they’re ranking out as one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks. The Steelers have had things relatively easy, but personnel tells the story here. There will be too much Watt-age (sorry) Sunday, and someone will make the big play to impress their sibling, but who will it be? Likely TJ the Younger, who has more help and has been much better anyway. Houston’s inexperienced LBs won’t help that second level much, so you can expect the Steelers to outpace the Texans, who will be running for their lives all day, and by “Texans” and “their” I mean Watson. They say money buys you happiness...
The Texans led 21-17 going into the second half, but the Steelers scored 11 unansewered points in that second half, led by 12 QB hits, five sacks and eight tackles for loss. In fact, Deshaun Watson outplayed Ben Roethlisberger, but until the Texans can get more than Larry Tunsil on the offensive line things aren't changing any time soon, maybe ever.
New
York Jets 0-2
(+11.5)*
@ Indianapolis Colts 1-1
(44):
Colts
23-17 Colts 36-9
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: This one is pretty simple. The Colts have largely underachieved in 2020 and I put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the guy responsible for most of San Diego’s underachieving all those years: Philip “Cry Me A” Rivers. The Jets are flat out one of the worst teams in the NFL, coached by the most miserable human being in football this side of Todd Haley and Jay Cutler, so why would they be a Top 5 lock of the week? 11.5 points is ridiculous in almost NFL game, and the Colts haven’t played well enough to be favorites by even half that amount.
You know that meme with Homer Simpson backing into the bush?
Carolina
Panthers 0-2 (+6.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 1-1
(43.5):
Chargers
26-16 Panthers 21-16
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Another game review, another star player out for the season. With Christian McCaffery gone for 2020 the Panthers can pack it up, because they weren’t winning the NFC South anyway, and now their chances of securing that ridiculous extra playoff spot have all but disappeared. Speaking of injured players, is the Chargers medical staff serious? They punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung injecting a shot into his ribs? Who the hell runs the show there, Dr. Nick??? There are easier ways to give up on Taylor like so many foolish teams have before Los Angeles, but this is taking things to new heights. The rookie Justin Herbert will start again in Taylor’s stead, but unlike last week, he’ll have more than 30 minutes to prepare and won’t be facing the Kansas City Chiefs, as the Run CMC-less Panthers have given up 32.5 ppg so far this season and won’t be scoring at nearly the same pace with McCaffery, although that wasn’t much, either (23.5 ppg).
The Chargers might be the most annoying team to ever grace the gridiron. Panthers K Joey Slye kicked five FGs ranging from only 21-31 yards, but hilariously missed a standard 33-yard PAT, which would've tied the game on his own. No need, no team finds a way to underachive like the Chargers, who lost three of four fumbles, including one from the rookie Justin Herbert, who alos threw an INT. Hopefully Teh-rod is on the mend.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 1-1
(-5.5)
@ Denver Broncos 0-2
(43):
Buccaneers
27-20 Buccaneers 28-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: The Golden Boy doesn’t fair well in Denver, but there’s no Von Miller to “chase” him. There’s also no Drew Lock, Davontae Harris, and there might be any Philip Lindsey or Jerry Jeudy, so the only thing Tom Brady might have to worry about Sunday is the thin air and his shaky history at Mile High Stadium.
Shaquil Barrett returned to the old home that sent him packing, fresh off a league-leading 19.5 sacks in 2019, and had two sacks and three tackles for loss in his triumphant return to the team that disgarded him because they had an embarrasement of pass rushing riches. How embarrased the Broncos must be, especially after losing Von Miller for the season. Oh yeah, Tom Brady (297 passing yards; 3 TDs) had a good game.
Detroit
Lions
0-2 (+5.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 2-0
(55.5):
Cardinals
31-20 Lions 26-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I’m sick of even analyzing the Detroit Lions. Suffice it to say I’ll be shocked if the Cardinals don’t cover these 5.5 points at home as Kyler Murray builds his MVP campaign. These teams average 49 ppg and give up an average of 51.5 ppg so I’m not sure how this O/U opened so high (lowest opening line was 51.5) and immediately settled at 55.5. The under almost made my Top 5 locks of the week, although my Top 5 record so far in 2020 is Lions-ish at best.
Kyler Murray certainly didn't help his MVP campaign. In fact, his three INTs gives him more INTs then passing TDs this season, although he added another rushing TD (4). Anyway, color me shocked.
Dallas
Cowboys 1-1 (+5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 2-0
(57):
Seahawks
30-24 Seahawks 38-31
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Partly cloudy; mid-60s)
Keys: The Cowboys needed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history to beat the Falcons last week after losing to the Rams Week 1 and Russell Wilson has two more incompletions so far this season than TD passes (11:9), hence the 5-point spread. On paper these two teams look like formidable opponents, but in reality, the Cowboys are wildly inconsistent, largely underachieving and have still refused to pay their supposed franchise QB, which has to tell you something. I’m reminded of Kirk Cousins, who despite also being a supposed franchise QB, was never paid by Washington, only to have Cousins end up with the Minnesota Vikings and a huge contract. How did that work out for Minnesota? Dak Prescott has tons of intangibles, and all signs point to him being a great human being, but the Cowboys don’t need that. The Cowboys need consistency and that lacks under Prescott’s leadership. It’s literally the opposite of the suddenly-swag-heavy Wilson, who could turn CenturyLink Field’s concession stand workers into All-Pro receivers while converting them to Christianity. Even Ezekiel Elliot will struggle Sunday, as the Seahawks LB core remains their only strong remnant from superior defenses past.
Russell Wilson threw five more TDs, increasing his season total to 14 TDs : 24 incompletions. If not for a DK Metcalf blunder Wilson would've had six TDs passes Sunday, and thus, 15 total passing TDs. The Seahawks were up 30-15 coming midway through the 3rd quarter, only to see the Cowboys make their second heroic comeback in as many weeks by taking a 31-30 lead on the leg of Greg Zuerlein, who kicked a 42-yard FG with 3:59 left in the 4th quarter on the second of two consecutive scoring drives. Ultimately, Metcalf redeemed himself with a 29-yard TD catch from Wilson with fewer than two minutes remamining in the game, marking Wilson's 131st 4th quarter comeback, while forcing the Cowboys to face the fact they should be 0-3 if not for the Atlanta Failures.
Green
Bay Packers 2-0 (+3)*
@ New Orleans Saints 1-1
(52.5)*:
Packers
30-28 Packers 37-30
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Are they seriously giving Aaron Rodgers and the Packers three points on Turf Nation T5? While we’re at it, these teams score a combined 70 ppg while giving up an average of 29 ppg each, so is this O/U seriously at 52.5? Rarely, if ever, does one game warrant two Top-5 locks of the week, but I can’t help myself here. The questionable status of Davante Adams is not enough to give the Packers three points, nor is it enough to take 10 points off the game total for two teams that have combined with their opponents to average 62.5 points per game, and consistently through both weeks I might add. Taking the over is an even safer bet than taking the points, but I recommend doing both.
You're welcome.
Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 (+3.5)* @ Baltimore Ravens 2-0 (54.5): Ravens 30-27
Monday, 8:15 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 40% rain; low 70s)
Keys: I don’t care how good the Ravens are, I’m never giving Patrick Mahomes 3.5 points. That’s like giving Jeff Bezos more money. That’s like giving Beyonce more bees. That’s like giving Andy Reid more food. They don’t need it. Both teams have beat up on the lowly Houston Texans by nearly identical scores, but the Chiefs needed OT to beat a Chargers team that had to start a rookie QB minutes before kickoff because the Chargers medical staff doesn’t know what they’re doing. Therein lies a key to the spread, in addition to a tale of two defenses – Baltimore’s is clearly superior. I can’t really imagine the Chiefs being brought to the brink two weeks in a row, but the scheduling gods can be cruel, and the Chargers are a stout defensive unit. Perhaps that plays into the Chiefs hands and they’re more prepared for the Ravens defense Monday night, but these Ravens seem like they’re on a mission and being home in the rain doesn’t hurt.
The Chiefs were up 27-10 within seconds of the two-minute warning in the first half so let's just say the Ravens were blown off their own field on MNF. Lamar Jackson had a TD pass dropped, but that really means the score simply would've been 34-24. I don't see many teams being favorered against the Chiefs going forward, so I hope you made a chunk off the Chiefs Monday night.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 4: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) THURSDAY EDITION coming Thursday!
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