2020 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 3 #NFL Game Reviews
2020 WEEK 3 TOTALS:
10-5-1 .667 (WINS); 6-10 .375 (ATS); 9-7 .563 (O/U)
2020 SEASON TOTALS:
33-14-1 .700 (WINS); 23-25 .479 (ATS); 25-23 .521 (O/U)
TOP 5 GAMES 2020 SEASON TOTAL:
8-7 .500
Key (when applicable):
Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L
record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from
PFR); Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed
(YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google using Creative Commons license unless otherwise stated (including source)*
DISCLAIMER: PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA IS FOR ANALYZING NFL FOOTBALL GAMES AND IS NOT A BETTING WEBSITE
Last season PFM began the <
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5" segment, where PFM chooses their Top 5 Betting Games of the Week using either the spread OR O/U (denoted by an asterisk *). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Good
luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it
lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Miami
Dolphins 0-2
(+3)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-1
(48.5):
Jaguars
28-23 Dolphins 31-13
Thursday,
8:20
PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather:
20% rain;
high 70s)
Keys: It’s
a TNF battle in Florida, the state that reminds us of anything but
football and sunshine these days. It’s also a battle of two
mediocre football
teams, one led by a guy that’s blowing our minds in Gardner Minshew
and one that has occasionally blown
our minds in the past in Ryan
Fitzpatrick. Truth
be told these are two decent teams. The Jaguars have played much
better than expected and faced solid competition (IND;
TEN);
the same could be said about the Dolphins, but more so referencing
the solid competition (BUF;
NE)
more so than exceeding expectations. I’m
a little surprised the Dolphins are getting three points on the road,
because they’re worse than Jacksonville on paper and they’re even
worse in reality. The opening line suggests an even match, but I
don’t buy it; even the shakeup at center shouldn’t be much of an
issue for the Jaguars. Miami could have trouble against the Jaguars
defensive front, and the Jaguars offensive weapons have been playing
well, not to mention Minshew, who’s already thrown six TDs (and
two INTs).
Throw a few bucks on that over, too.
Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you.
Chicago
Bears 2-0
(+3)
@ Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (47.5):
Falcons
28-24 Bears 30-26
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Bears are 2-0, and have played relatively well, but let’s be
honest, the competition hasn’t been all-world (DET;
NYG),
while the Falcons have faced the Seahawks and just last week v.
Dallas became the first team in 441 games of NFL history to lose
despite scoring 39 points and not committing a TO. The Bears can’t
score enough points to keep pace with the Falcons at home and that’s
pretty much it.
I hate Nick Foles. The dude failed me in fantasy football after making his name with the most efficient season in NFL history, he had no business winning the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots a few years ago, the guy stole money meant for Gardner Minshew, and Big Dick Nick comes into the effing game midway through and helps the Bears come back against the Falcons, their second such shocking loss in as many weeks. What do you say about a guy that can make the minimum and saves franchises, but the second you hand him the keys to the car he crashes into a wall? Better yet, what the hell do you say about the Falcons?
Los
Angeles Rams
2-0
(+2.5)
@ *Buffalo
Bills 2-0
(46.5):
Bills
24-21 Bills 35-32
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: I’m
nervous about making this one of PFM’s Top 5 locks of the week,
because this
Bills offense is rolling, but this Rams defense is gelling by the
week, and their strong secondary backs the best defensive player in
the NFL in defensive linemen Aaron Donald. Josh Allen might not get
loose, and if he does, he should be well covered. The Bills running
game could get loose, but Donald can blow anything up. No, this game
comes down to the Bills defense, which has been even more impressive
than the offense, although expected, and should out-match a nearly as
impressive Rams offense.
So much for the Bills defense. This game tied for the second-highest point total of Week 3 (DALvSEA scored 69 total points).
Washington
Football Team
1-1 (+7)
@
Cleveland Browns 1-1 (45):
Browns
26-20 Browns 34-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Sunny;
low 80s)
Keys: The
WFT offense won’t be scoring much Sunday so it’s really just up
to the Browns offense to score enough
points against a solid Washington defense. Is that sound enough
analysis? The Browns could have trouble going right, so they might
attack Odell Beckham Jr.’s side with some fierceness to not only
take advantage of Washington’s weak side, but also
to
continue a ridiculous trend to keep him happy.
Perhaps the Browns are finally coming to life as the Football Team finally comes back to Earth. Dwayne Haskins Jr. threw a TD with under two minutes remaining in the 1st quarter to put the WFT up 7-0. Then the wheels fell off as Haskins proceeded to throw three INTs. The Browns didn't do as much impressing as Haskins stunk up the joint.
Tennessee
Titans 2-0
(-2.5)
@ Minnesota Vikings 0-2
(49):
Titans
24-21 Titans 31-30
Sunday,
1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Vikings defense is no longer formidable and the offense is too
inconsistent to beat the Titans, who despite having an easier
schedule thus
far,
are nearly
three-point favorites on the road because
of
the
former.
I’m
not quite sure why the O/U is so high, as these two ground attacks
should chew the clock, but my O/U track record thus far didn’t
warrant a Top 5
lock of the week.
Imagine scoring 30 points against the Titans and losing because much-maligned K Stephen Gostowski hit six FGs? The same guy who almost lost a game earlier this season because he missed three FGs and a PAT (Note: The Titans still won). The Vikings have all but been eliminated from the playoffs already, which is interesting considering their expectations coming into 2020, but I suppose many in Minneapolis are still waiting for that supposed police defunding, so I guess the lesson is regular people rarely get what they expect, unless, of course, they expect the worst.
Las
Vegas Raiders 2-0
(+5.5)
@
New England Patriots 1-1 (47.5):
Patriots
22-20 Patriots 36-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather:
Partly
Sunny; high 70s)
Keys:
The
Patriots came up a few yards short of starting 2-0 last week, and the
Raiders are really banged up, but the Patriots strongest
aspect this season has been their running game and they’ll be
without center David Andrews Sunday, so no matter what match-up you
want to key in on
5.5 points seems
like a stretch.
The magic number was three: The number of Raiders TOs and also the number of Rex Burkhead TDs. I know, I'm technically a Patriots fan and even I have to remind myself Burkhead is on the team.
San
Francisco 1-1 (-3.5)
@ New York Giants 0-2
(41.5):
49ers
23-17 49ers 36-9
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Partly
Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The
49ers went from Super Bowl contenders to #1 draft pick contenders
overnight after last week’s fate of attrition. San Francisco was
already without the league's best TE and now they’re without the
league’s best pass rusher, not to mention several other key
players, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo. So how are they 3.5-point
favorites on the road for an intercontinental 10am game? The Giants
were that bad with
Saquon Barkley, and
now
he’s gone for the season, too.
Of course the game Jimmy Garoppolo is injured Nick Mullens comes in and helps, optimal word, the 49ers score 36 points, their highest total of the season, second to 31 points last week, which the 49ers scored during a game in which Garoppolo was injured and had to leave the game. Seeing a pattern here? The MetLife turf monster struck again, which begs the question: How long before NFL teams boycott MetLife, home to the two worst teams in the NFL. If I were on the legal team for any NFL team playing at MetLife I'd argue for a forfeit, because you're likely winning anyway.
Cincinnati
Bengals 0-2
(+4.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 0-2
(47.5):
Eagles
24-23 TIE 23-23 OT
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
70% rain; high 60s)
Keys: Both
of these teams were filled with promise entering 2020, but only one
expected to struggle. These two teams seem to be going in opposite
directions, but stumbling just the same. The Bengals have shown
sparks on defense and offense, but have sputtered in both games. The
Eagles are banged up already, both physically and mentally, and
Carson Wentz’s FCS is really beginning to show. I suppose the
Eagles are favored because they’re home and angry, but Philadelphia
has been outscored 64-19 since the end of the first half against
Washington Week 1, so I’m leaning towards the rookie Joe Burrow to
cover this one.
Suffice it to say I almost nailed this game. As much as I want to blame Carson Wentz (55%; 1 TD; 2 INTs), his seven-yard scamper tied the game with 21 seconds left in regulation.
Houston
Texans 0-2
(+4)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0
(45):
Steelers
27-24 Steelers 28-21
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Partly sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Deshaun
Watson is the victim of giant holes in his offensive line that force
him to scramble before making his first read on nearly every snap,
and he doesn’t have Deandre Hopkins to bail him out anymore, so do
we really expect anything different this week against arguably the
best defensive line in the NFL? Perhaps. The Texans have played the
toughest schedule by a long shot so far this season (BAL;
KC),
which is why they’re ranking out as one of the worst teams in the
NFL through two weeks. The Steelers have had things relatively easy,
but personnel tells the story here. There will be too much Watt-age
(sorry)
Sunday, and someone will make the big play to impress their sibling,
but who will it be? Likely TJ the Younger, who has more help and has
been much better anyway. Houston’s inexperienced LBs won’t help
that second level much, so you can expect the Steelers to outpace the
Texans, who will be running for their lives all day, and by “Texans”
and “their” I mean Watson. They say money buys you happiness...
The Texans led 21-17 going into the second half, but the Steelers scored 11 unansewered points in that second half, led by 12 QB hits, five sacks and eight tackles for loss. In fact, Deshaun Watson outplayed Ben Roethlisberger, but until the Texans can get more than Larry Tunsil on the offensive line things aren't changing any time soon, maybe ever.
New
York Jets 0-2
(+11.5)*
@ Indianapolis Colts 1-1
(44):
Colts
23-17 Colts 36-9
Sunday,
4:05
PM, Lucas Oil Stadium,
Indianapolis, IN (Weather
Indoors)
Keys:
This
one is pretty simple. The Colts have largely underachieved in 2020
and I put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the guy responsible
for most of San Diego’s underachieving all those years: Philip “Cry
Me A” Rivers. The Jets are flat out one of the worst teams in the
NFL, coached by the most miserable human being in football this side
of Todd Haley and Jay Cutler, so why would they be a Top 5 lock of
the week? 11.5 points is ridiculous in almost NFL game, and the Colts
haven’t played well enough to be favorites by even half that
amount.
You know that meme with Homer Simpson backing into the bush?
Carolina
Panthers 0-2 (+6.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 1-1
(43.5):
Chargers
26-16 Panthers 21-16
Sunday,
4:05
PM, SoFi
Stadium, Inglewood,
CA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys:
Another
game review, another star player out for the season. With Christian
McCaffery gone for 2020 the Panthers can pack it up, because they
weren’t winning the NFC South anyway, and now their chances of
securing that ridiculous extra playoff spot have all but disappeared.
Speaking of injured players, is the Chargers medical staff serious?
They punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung injecting a shot into his ribs?
Who the hell
runs the show there, Dr. Nick??? There are easier ways to give up on
Taylor like so many foolish
teams
have before Los Angeles, but this is taking things to new heights.
The rookie Justin Herbert will start again in Taylor’s stead, but
unlike last week, he’ll have more than 30 minutes to prepare and
won’t be facing the Kansas City Chiefs, as the Run CMC-less
Panthers have given up 32.5 ppg so far this season and won’t be
scoring at nearly the same pace with McCaffery, although that wasn’t
much, either (23.5
ppg).
The Chargers might be the most annoying team to ever grace the gridiron. Panthers K Joey Slye kicked five FGs ranging from only 21-31 yards, but hilariously missed a standard 33-yard PAT, which would've tied the game on his own. No need, no team finds a way to underachive like the Chargers, who lost three of four fumbles, including one from the rookie Justin Herbert, who alos threw an INT. Hopefully Teh-rod is on the mend.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 1-1
(-5.5)
@ Denver Broncos 0-2
(43):
Buccaneers
27-20 Buccaneers 28-10
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather:
Partly cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: The
Golden Boy doesn’t fair well in Denver, but there’s no Von Miller
to “chase” him. There’s
also no Drew Lock, Davontae Harris, and there might be any Philip
Lindsey or Jerry Jeudy, so the only thing Tom Brady might have to
worry about Sunday is the thin air and his shaky history at Mile High
Stadium.
Shaquil Barrett returned to the old home that sent him packing, fresh off a league-leading 19.5 sacks in 2019, and had two sacks and three tackles for loss in his triumphant return to the team that disgarded him because they had an embarrasement of pass rushing riches. How embarrased the Broncos must be, especially after losing Von Miller for the season. Oh yeah, Tom Brady (297 passing yards; 3 TDs) had a good game.
Detroit
Lions
0-2 (+5.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 2-0
(55.5):
Cardinals
31-20 Lions 26-23
Sunday,
4:25
PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: I’m
sick of even analyzing the Detroit Lions. Suffice it to say I’ll be
shocked if the Cardinals don’t cover these 5.5 points at home as
Kyler Murray builds his MVP campaign. These teams average 49 ppg and
give up an average of 51.5 ppg so I’m not sure how this O/U opened
so high (lowest
opening line was 51.5)
and
immediately settled at 55.5. The under almost made my Top 5 locks of
the week, although my Top 5 record so far in 2020 is Lions-ish at
best.
Kyler Murray certainly didn't help his MVP campaign. In fact, his three INTs gives him more INTs then passing TDs this season, although he added another rushing TD (4). Anyway, color me shocked.
Dallas
Cowboys 1-1 (+5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 2-0
(57):
Seahawks
30-24 Seahawks 38-31
Sunday,
4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Partly
cloudy; mid-60s)
Keys: The
Cowboys needed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history to beat
the Falcons last week after losing to the Rams Week 1 and Russell
Wilson has two more incompletions so far this season than TD passes
(11:9),
hence the 5-point spread. On paper these two teams look like
formidable opponents, but in reality, the Cowboys are wildly
inconsistent, largely underachieving and have still
refused to pay their supposed franchise QB, which has to tell you
something. I’m reminded of Kirk Cousins, who despite also
being
a supposed franchise QB, was
never paid by Washington,
only to have Cousins end up with the Minnesota Vikings and a huge
contract. How did that work out for Minnesota? Dak Prescott has tons
of intangibles, and all signs point to him being a great human being,
but the Cowboys don’t need that. The Cowboys need consistency and
that lacks under Prescott’s leadership. It’s literally the
opposite of the suddenly-swag-heavy Wilson, who could turn
CenturyLink Field’s concession stand workers into All-Pro receivers
while converting them to Christianity. Even
Ezekiel Elliot will struggle Sunday, as the Seahawks LB core remains
their only strong remnant from superior defenses past.
Russell Wilson threw five more TDs, increasing his season total to 14 TDs : 24 incompletions. If not for a DK Metcalf blunder Wilson would've had six TDs passes Sunday, and thus, 15 total passing TDs. The Seahawks were up 30-15 coming midway through the 3rd quarter, only to see the Cowboys make their second heroic comeback in as many weeks by taking a 31-30 lead on the leg of Greg Zuerlein, who kicked a 42-yard FG with 3:59 left in the 4th quarter on the second of two consecutive scoring drives. Ultimately, Metcalf redeemed himself with a 29-yard TD catch from Wilson with fewer than two minutes remamining in the game, marking Wilson's 131st 4th quarter comeback, while forcing the Cowboys to face the fact they should be 0-3 if not for the Atlanta Failures.
Green
Bay Packers 2-0 (+3)*
@ New Orleans Saints 1-1
(52.5)*:
Packers
30-28 Packers 37-30
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: Are
they
seriously giving Aaron Rodgers and the Packers three points on Turf
Nation T5? While we’re at it, these teams score
a
combined
70 ppg while giving up an
average of 29
ppg each,
so is this O/U seriously at 52.5? Rarely, if ever, does one game
warrant two Top-5 locks of the week, but I can’t help myself here.
The questionable status of Davante Adams is not enough to give the
Packers three points, nor is it enough to take 10 points off the game
total for two teams that have
combined with their opponents to average 62.5 points per game, and
consistently through both weeks I might add. Taking the over is an
even safer bet than taking the points, but I recommend doing both.
You're welcome.
Kansas
City Chiefs
2-0
(+3.5)*
@ Baltimore Ravens 2-0
(54.5):
Ravens
30-27
Monday,
8:15
PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather:
40%
rain; low 70s)
Keys: I
don’t care how good the Ravens are, I’m never giving
Patrick
Mahomes 3.5 points. That’s like giving
Jeff Bezos more money. That’s like giving
Beyonce more bees. That’s like giving
Andy
Reid more food. They don’t need it. Both teams have beat up on the
lowly Houston Texans by nearly identical scores, but the Chiefs
needed OT to beat a Chargers team that had to start a rookie QB
minutes before kickoff because the Chargers medical staff doesn’t
know what they’re doing. Therein lies a key to the spread, in
addition to a tale of two defenses – Baltimore’s is clearly
superior. I can’t really imagine the Chiefs being brought to the
brink two weeks in a row, but the scheduling gods can be cruel, and
the Chargers are a stout defensive unit. Perhaps that plays into the
Chiefs hands and they’re more prepared for the Ravens defense
Monday night, but these Ravens seem like they’re on a mission and
being home in the rain doesn’t
hurt.
The Chiefs were up 27-10 within seconds of the two-minute warning in the first half so let's just say the Ravens were blown off their own field on MNF. Lamar Jackson had a TD pass dropped, but that really means the score simply would've been 34-24. I don't see many teams being favorered against the Chiefs going forward, so I hope you made a chunk off the Chiefs Monday night.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 4: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) THURSDAY EDITION coming Thursday!
