2018 NFL SEASON
Week
11: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 10 results: 8-6 (wins); 6-6-2 (v. spread); 9-5 (O/U)
Season totals: 97-49-2 .664 (wins); 68-75-5 .476 (v. sp); 81-66-1
.551 (O/U)
Note/Key (when applicable):
Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points
scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG);
Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency
(3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play
(YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread
(ATS).
Russell Wilson has helped turn the Seattle Seahawks season around, but they face a relatively tough test on the short week at home v. the Green Bay Packers Thursday night.
Green Bay Packers 4-4-1
(+3) @
Seattle Seahawks 4-5 (48): Seahawks 27-23
Thursday,
8:20 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 40% rain; low 50s)
Reasons: The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss on the road
against the Los Angeles Rams while the Packers just dismantled the Miami
Dolphins in Green Bay Sunday, but Week 11 is a short one and the Seahawks didn’t
have to travel far last week and don’t move at all Thursday. Both teams are 2-3
in the last five games, both defenses are banged up, and neither team is
stellar at home or on the road; in fact, the Packers are 0-4 on the road so far
in 2018. The Seahawks allow exactly one more yard per game (12th), but give up 2.7 fewer
ppg, which is good for 9th in the league, and that’s after giving up
36 to the Rams Sunday. The Packers sack the quarterback more than any team in
the league, however, which means Russell Wilson will once again by running for
his life as he matriculates the Seahawks mediocre offense down the field.
Meanwhile the Seattle ball-hawking defense (4th
TO ratio; 7th INT) will be trying to take advantage of any bad
decisions made by Aaron Rodgers, who leads the league’s 7th-ranked
total offense (400 ypg). Expect a
sloppy game considering the weather, the short week and the fact both these
teams are two of the most penalized in the league offensively (GB: 5th; SEA: 6th).
Cincinnati
Bengals 5-4 (+4) @
Baltimore Ravens 4-5 (39): Ravens 23-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Cloudy; high 40s)
Reasons: A long time ago in an NFL far, far away these teams were 3-1;
the Ravens were even being talked about as dark horse favorites to
represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Not such much anymore. No one outside of Hamilton
County expected the Bengals to do anything, but I’m not sure they expected to
have the worst defense in the league, either. The Ravens still have one of the
best defenses in the league and are at home, which is the perfect place to snap
a three-game losing streak. These teams average nearly 50 combined points per
game so I have no idea why the O/U is so low. Maybe it’s because the Ravens have
averaged fewer than 14 ppg their last five games (1-4).
Carolina Panthers 6-3 (-4)
@ Detroit Lions 3-6 (51): Panthers 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field,
Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Panthers aren’t very
good on the road, but the Lions aren’t very good at all. Still, Carolina will
have to improve on their sub-20.0 ppg performance their past three road games
if they want to beat Detroit, who’ll be playing their fourth-straight game
against good defenses and their second without Golden Tate. They’re also
missing Marvin Jones, so it doesn’t look good for the Lions.
Tennessee
Titans 5-4 (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts 4-5 (48.5): Titans 23-21
Sunday,
1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The
Colts are on a three-game winning streak, but the competition has been
laughable, while the Titans have been through the gauntlet the past four game (2-2),
and are 2-0 since coming off the bye. The Titans also have a top-6 defense and
are the most disciplined offensive team in the league. The Colts are a great
story and Andrew Luck (26 TDS; 9 INTs) is having a Comeback Player of the
Year-type season while leading the Colts top-10 offense (28.9 ppg), but they’re
running into a buzz saw Sunday.
It's do-or-die time for both the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons, who face each other in Atlanta Sunday.
Dallas
Cowboys 4-5 (+3) @ Atlanta
Falcons 4-5 (48): Falcons
28-24
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The
Falcons horrendous defense has to face the Cowboys just as Dallas' season was
brought back from the dead after a win at the Philadelphia Eagles, while Atlanta
just lost to a Cleveland Browns team that just lost their head coach. The
Falcons top-10 offense hosts the Cowboys top-10 defense and what looks to be a
shoot-out, which is why I find a 48-point O/U strange, especially considering the
Carolina @ Detroit game is 51 points. The Cowboys are lacking depth along the
defensive line due to attrition, so Matt Ryan might have plenty of time to find
his many weapons.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers 3-6 (-1) @ New York
Giants 2-7 (42): Giants 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Cloudy; high 40s)
Reasons: The Buccaneers still gain the most yards per game of any team
in the league and average nearly 26 ppg, but they’ve scored fewer points in each
of their three-straight losses (34-28-3),
which isn’t a good trend facing any team, even the lowly Giants. New York is
feeling themselves after their road win at the San Francisco 49ers, but I’m not
really sure what that means for a 2-7 team. Clearly Las Vegas doesn’t have much
hope for this game with a 1-point spread and an O/U more than a field goal
below their combined season average.
Houston Texans 6-3 (-3)
@ Washington
Football Team 6-3 (42.5):
Texans 24-20
Sunday, 1:00
PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Cloudy;
high 40s)
Reasons: Both of these teams are leading their divisions, which is
not only a surprise from the preseason, but a surprise just from several weeks
ago. The Texans were 1-3 five weeks ago, and Washington 2-2, and neither team
was leading their division, although Washington could’ve been log jammed in a
terrible NFC East back then. The Texans are suddenly a top-10 disciplined (8th PEN) offense on a five-game
winning streak traveling (3-2
away) to Washington to play a good defense with the 3rd-best turnover ratio in
the league on their own little five-game streak (4-1). Washington is no longer one of the two teams in the NFL with
a negative point differential and a winning record (+0.1), but they remain fraudulent. Expect the averages in this one,
which means the over…barely.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 6-2-1 (-5.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-6 (46.5): Steelers 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida (Weather:
Partly Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Jaguars have lost five straight and the Steelers have
won five straight. The Steelers have a top-4 offense and have become the 8th-ranked
total defense, while the Jaguars top-10 defense is really an illusion at this
point considering they’ve allowed 28.6 ppg during their five-game losing
streak. Jacksonville just isn’t the same team anymore, and it doesn’t get any
easier for Blake Bortles against a Pittsburgh team with the 2nd-most
sacks in the league.
Old Man [Phillip] Rivers is once again quietly putting together an MVP-caliber season as the 7-2 Los Angeles Chargers try to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.
Denver
Broncos 3-6 (+6) @
Los Angeles Chargers 7-2 (46.5): Chargers
28-21
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The
Broncos and Von Miller play the Chargers and Phillip Rivers tough, and Carson,
CA isn’t much of home advantage for Los Angeles, but the Chargers are simply
too good. Add a Chargers five-game winning streak to the possibility of a Joey
Bosa comeback and the Broncos don’t stand much of a chance.
Oakland
Raiders 1-8 (+5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 2-7 (40.5): Cardinals 21-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix
Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Las Vegas expects a 23-17 Cardinals win, which makes perfect sense considering
the Raiders have given up, but should score their season average, while the
Cardinals should score somewhere between their putrid season average (13.8
ppg – 31st) and what the Raiders horrendous defense gives up (30.2
ppg – 30th). Oakland's only win this season came in OT versus
the Browns, but the Cardinals have only won two games this season themselves
and they’ve both come against a 2-8 San Francisco 49ers team. What an awful
game this is going to be.
Philadelphia
Eagles 4-5 (+8.5) @ New Orleans Saints 8-1 (56): Saints 30-21
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Eagles
lost at home to the Dallas Cowboys last week and suddenly their season is in jeopardy,
because they face the Saints at the Superdome Sunday, and their only two wins
in their past five games have come against the New York Giants (2-7) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6). Fortunately, the play three straight divisional games following their
trip to New Orleans so all is not lost if they lose to the Saints, which is
likely because MVP-candidate Drew Brees (21 TDs; 1 INT)
is leading an offense that scores a league-high 36.7 ppg and the Eagles aren’t
getting nearly the pressure on quarterbacks they did in 2017.
Minnesota Vikings 5-3-1 (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears 6-3 (45): Bears 26-23
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear; low 30s)
Reasons: The
Bears have won three straight games after losing a close game to the New
England Patriots following a heartbreaking OT loss to the Dolphins, which hypothetically means Chicago could be 8-1 hosting the Vikings and a full two
games ahead in the NFC North. The Vikings, on the other hand, are 2-1-1 in one-possession
games, meaning they could easily be even further behind. Alas, hypotheticals
don’t mean anything in the NFL, so instead we have an incredible divisional
battle between two of the more talented defenses in the league that also get after
the quarterback featuring two offenses that can score points in bunches; in
fact, Mitch Trubisky has the 5th-ranked Bears eating with nearly 30
ppg. I expect a defensive battle that hits the over if that makes any sense.
Let's just blame Rodger Goodell for the Mexico City field mess.
Kansas
City Chiefs 9-1 (+3.5) @ Los Angeles
Rams 9-1 (63.5): Rams
33-31
Monday, 8:20 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los
Angeles, CA (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 60s) NOTE: MOVED FROM MEXICO CITY TO LAR
Reasons: The
game was supposed to be played in Mexico City, but then Shakira ruined
everything. What is there to say, this is one of the best Monday Night Football
games in recent memory featuring two of the most dynamic offenses in NFL
history, averaging a combined 68.8 ppg, which is higher than the 63.5-point
spread, another NFL record, the third of its kind this season. ”The
times they are a changin’", said Bob Dylan, but he wasn't talking about football. Much in this game will depend on Kansas City’s bend-don’t-break
defense, as even the stellar Chiefs offense will have a hard time keeping up
with the Rams at home, but the true test will be which offensive line can keep
a clean pocket the longest as both of these teams get after the quarterback.
Getcha’ popcorn ready.
BYEs: Buffalo;
Cleveland; Miami; New England; NY Jets; San Francisco
Stay
tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 11 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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