2018 NFL SEASON
Tuesday's Gone: Week 10 #NFL Game Reviews
Week 10 results: 8-6
(wins); 6-6-2 (v. spread); 9-5 (O/U)
Season totals: 97-49-2 .664
(wins); 68-75-5 .476 (v. sp); 81-66-1 .551 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
As well as Cam Newton has played in the past the Carolina Panthers defense has mostly carried him; such is not the case in 2018.
Carolina Panthers 6-2 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2-1 (52): Steelers 28-27 Steelers 52-21
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Clear;
low 40s)
Reasons: Long known
for stifling defenses, the Panthers head to Pittsburgh Thursday night to face
one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL with their own highly-ranked
dynamic offense. That’s not to say both teams don’t possess good defenses, as
both rank between 12th-15th in total defense and points
against, while the Panthers ranked 4th in INTs and the Steelers rank
4th in sacks, both of which will come into play Thursday night. No,
this game is about two offenses that scores 28.5 ppg (PIT – ranked 9th) and 27.5 ppg (CAR – ranked 11th), respectively. Besides being home,
which the 2-2 Steelers don’t hold much of an advantage so far this season,
other than the Panthers poor road record (1-2),
Pittsburgh holds the ball (3rd
TOP) and has the 5th-best 3rd-down efficiency in the
NFL; in other words, keep the ball away from Cam Newton and tire the Panthers
defense. On the other hand, the Steelers are the most penalized team in the
league yardage-wise, while the Panthers, miraculously, are one of the league’s
most disciplined (5th).
The Steelers also turn the ball over (21st),
while the Panthers don’t (4th).
As much as I like this rising Carolina team, the Steelers are hot and playing
home in the short week. If it were Sunday or in Carolina, I’d be inclined to
pick different. Panthers cover, but Pittsburgh escapes with the win.
I can’t imagine the Panthers are too thrilled about giving up the
52-point O/U by themselves, 14 of them off of Carolina turnovers. Ben Roethlisberger
threw five TDs to five different receivers and the Steelers had the game won
five minutes into the second quarter.
New England Patriots 7-2 (-6.5) @
Tennessee Titans 4-4 (47): Patriots 28-20 Titans 34-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The
current Patriots face the old Patriots in Nashville Sunday as former Patriot
player/coach Mike Vrabel and a grip of former Patriots players (e.g. Malcolm
Butler; Deion Lewis; Logan Ryan) take on a current Patriots team that has
once again gone from getting hater’s hopes up to rounding into shape as the
best team in the AFC right when it counts. The Patriots are banged up, however,
and Tennessee is trying to salvage their season after losing three straight,
before last week’s win at the Dallas Cowboys. The Titans also lost two of those
three games by a point (BUF; LAC) and, at the time, one of the best
teams in the league (BAL), and come into Sunday’s game with the 8th-ranked
total defense and the top-ranked scoring defense (17.6 ppg). This should
be interesting because the Patriots come into the game with the 9th-ranked
total offense and the 5th-ranked scoring offense (30.0 ppg)
and Bill Belichick doesn’t lose to his pupils often. Expect a
highly-disciplined game between teacher and student, from which the Patriots
emerge victors.
I
nailed this one.
Detroit
Lions 3-5
(+6.5) @ Chicago Bears 5-3 (44): Bears 28-21 Bears
34-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons: The Lions are 1-3 on the
road this year, although two of those losses have come by three or fewer
points, but they haven’t faced a defense like Chicago’s (4th PA; 5th total) on the road yet. The
Lions aren't exactly offensive world-beaters to begin with (20th total offense; 20th points scored). The Bears are an OT
loss and a close loss to the Patriots from a 7-1 record. Both teams get after
the quarterback and both teams keep the opposing offenses on the bench, but the
Bears have the superior defense, which is the cause in the discrepancy between
turnover ratios (CHI: 2nd; DET: 22nd). Detroit has struggled
the past few weeks against good defenses, which will likely continue Sunday
against Chicago, who just happens to score the 6th most points in
the league (29.4 ppg).
Another
game that was over several minutes into the 2nd quarter, Mitch
Trubisky threw for 355 yards and three TDs and ran for another in their dismantling
of the Lions, the Bears first divisional win since the 2016 season.
New
Orleans Saints 7-1 (-5.5) @
Cincinnati Bengals 5-3 (54): Saints 33-28 Saints 51-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny;
mid-40s)
Reasons: The Bengals lost to the
Chiefs (7-1), the Steelers (5-2-1 before Thursday) and Panthers (6-2 before Thursday) this year, arguably three of the best teams
in the NFL, and have the 10th-ranked scoring offense (27.6 ppg). So why is Cincinnati 5.5-point underdogs at home? For one, their
defense gives up an astounding 29.6 ppg (30th) while giving up the
most yards in the league, they don’t sack the quarterback, aren’t very
disciplined (11th most penalized offense) and keep their defense
on the field longer than almost every team in the league, hence the yards against
totals. The Bengals just aren’t very buttoned up, which is the opposite of the
well-oiled Saints, who despite possessing yet another terrible defense, is one
of the best teams in the league.
If
the Saints defense is going to play like this against top-10 offenses on the
road then the rest of the NFL is in trouble. Drew Brees threw three TD passes,
all in the first half, and passed Brett Favre for 2nd all-time while
Andy Dalton threw two INTs and moved, well, one TD pass closer to Brett Favre.
Matt
Ryan is playing at an MVP level again and the Atlanta Falcons are slowly
creeping towards salvaging a season that started 1-4 start.
Atlanta
Falcons 4-4 (-6) @ Cleveland Browns 2-6-1
(50.5): Falcons 30-27 Browns 28-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Reasons: This is the second
straight preview of a game involving a road favorite of at least 5.5 points,
against a team from Ohio, no less. The Falcons have won three straight games
after starting the season 1-4 and boast the 5th-ranked total offense
and 9th-ranked scoring offense in addition to being the most efficient
team in the league on 3rd-down. These six points come from the lack
of respect Las Vegas has for the Browns more than they come from Atlanta’s
superiority. The Browns are in disarray after firing head coach Hue Jackson and
naming Gregg Williams as interim coach as they watch the nagging injuries pile
up on rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Cleveland is best at home, so we’ll
see…
I
should’ve known that right as the Falcons started lifting off they’d come
crashing back down to Earth, so of course it would be against the two-win
Browns. If not for a late 4th-quarter TD pass to Austin Hooper it
would’ve looked even worse. Baker Mayfield (216 passing yards; 3 TDs) and Nick
Chubb (176 rushing yards; 1 TD) offered a glimpse of the future of the Browns
offense. Now they just need a coach.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 3-5 (+3) @
Indianapolis Colts 3-5 (46.5): Colts 24-23 Colts 29-26
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil
Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: I’ve had to look at this
point spread a million times, but it only takes one look at the records to see
why: These are two even teams. Sacksonville is no more; they rank 25th
in sacks. The intimidation is no longer there. The loudest defensive backfield
in the NFL is ranked 24th in INTs. Somehow the Jaguars still rank 2nd
in total defense and 8th in PA (21.2 ppg), but no one scared
anymore, especially not a recharged Andrew Luck (23 TDs; 8 INTs), who leads the NFL’s 10th-ranked
total offense while scoring a 7th-best 28.9 ppg. That’s another
thing I had to look at a million times. It’s hard to fathom teams with top-10
offenses and defenses fighting for their seasons at 3-5, but such is the AFC
South.
The Jaguars scored 10 unanswered 2nd-half
points, but it was enough to overcome the 1st-half flurry by Andrew Luck
(285 passing yards), who threw three TD passes, two to Eric Ebron. Ebron also added
a rushing TD and suddenly the Colts are making noise in the AFC while the Jaguars
are slipping away loudly into oblivion.
Arizona
Cardinals 2-6 (+16.5) @ Kansas
City Chiefs 8-1 (49.5): Chiefs 30-20 Chiefs 26-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny;
mid-40s)
Reasons: The Chiefs have only
played in two games that began the week with O/Us under 50 points – Week 1 v.
LAC (48) and Week 5 against the then-stout Jaguars defense (48.5). Those are
two great defenses, or were in the case of Jacksonville, and the Cardinals,
well, aren’t. Basically Las Vegas sees Kansas City winning this game 33-17
considering the spread. Arizona ranks 17th in points against, and
before you argue against that being “bad”, they give up 24.5 ppg. That’s
today’s NFL, where giving up more than three TDs and a FG makes you an average
defense. Everyone knows about the Chiefs so this game is really about how badly
Kansas City beats the Cardinals.
Was anyone expecting anything different? I
mean, come on, 16.5 points is crazy.
Buffalo
Bills 2-7 (+7) @ New
York Jets 3-6 (36.5): Jets 20-14 Bills 41-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; mid-40s)
Reasons: From games with inflated
O/Us to the lowest O/U of the 2018 season the Bills head to NJ to face the Jets
in the Snooze Bowl. The Jets rank 6th in INTs and could be picking
of Nathan Peterman all day, except they'll be picking off Matt Barkley instead.
Then again, Sam Darnold is known for throwing to the other team, too, except
Darnold likely isn’t playing, either. In other words, as if two rookie
quarterbacks with combined 5-13 records facing off wasn’t cause enough to turn
the channel, their backups and third-stringers certainly will be.
I give up trying to figure this Bills team
out. Matt Barkley beat Josh McCown, but the game was over in the 1st
quarter after a LeSean McCoy TD run and a Jason Croom fumble return.
Doug
Martin might not be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers anymore, but for all intents
and purposes it seems neither is Jameis Winston.
Washington Football Team 5-3 (+3)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-5 (51): Bucs 27-23 WFT 16-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Bay, FL (Weather: Partly sunny; low 80s)
Reasons:
Washington was on their way to being respected around the league until
Atlanta destroyed them in their own house Sunday, forcing people to take a
closer look, exposing the fact Washington is one of only two teams in the NFL with
a negative point differential without a losing record (CIN, coincidentally
also 5-3). The Buccaneers might be the most exciting team in football, from
their high-flying offense (2nd total; 8th PA 28.6 ppg)
to their horrid defense (29th total; 32nd PA 34.4 ppg) to the
quarterback carousel. If it weren’t for a historically bad defense this Bucs
team would be battling for the NFC South, but alas they’re not. Meanwhile the
Washington defense is the only thing keeping them ahead of the NFC East.
I didn’t think I’d say the Bucs won a game
because of their defense this season, but they did, and at the perfect time considering
their offense scored about half the points they score on average. To make
matters worse for Washington, Tampa Bay even turned the ball over four times.
This is also one of the few games, if not the first, where the O/U was 50+
points and the teams combined for fewer than 20. I wouldn’t bet any futures on
that trend.
Los Angeles Chargers 6-2 (-10)
@ Oakland Raiders 1-7 (49.5): Chargers 31-17 Chargers 20-6
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: Here’s another one of
those games where Las Vegas sees an obvious blowout as evidenced by an O/U less
than 50 with a spread of ten points. The intuitive numbers scream 30-20 Chargers,
but in reality, the Raiders would be lucky to score 20 points, although it’s
literally the average between what the Raiders score (17.6 ppg) and
what the Chargers give up (22.5 ppg), which begs insight into how Vegas really
does things. I digress. The bottom line is the Chargers are light years more
talented than the Raiders, who have been shipping off talent at a dictator’s
pace.
The Raiders are absolutely awful, acknowledged
even by their owner, who also acknowledged Chucky is going nowhere. Awesome.
Neither are the Chargers, who rolled over Oakland on their way a 7-2 record, keeping
pace with the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. The Chargers could be dangerous going forward, but we've all read that book before.
Miami
Dolphins 5-4 (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers 3-4-1
(47.5): Packers 27-23 Packers 31-12
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Cloudy;
mid-30s)
Reasons: The Packers are coming
off of an embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots and are watching the
Bears take control of the division, which may explain why after being 9.5- and
6.5-point road underdogs the past two weeks they’re nearly ten-point favorites
at home against a Dolphins team with a better record. The Dolphins only do one
thing well, pick off the opposing quarterback, so they’ll be gunning for Aaron
Rodgers (15 TD passes; 1 INT) all day, especially considering he
just “lobs it up there” as Bill Belichick so eloquently put it. The Packers are
far better statistically then their record suggests and they have the most talented
player in the league in Rodgers; the Dolphins are none of those things. Green
Bay has given up more than 30 ppg the past four weeks, but the Dolphins
struggle to score at times and haven’t played a game in cold weather yet.
The Dolphins managed a measly 12 points on
the feet of Jason Sanders, and because of that, Miami was already done nine
minutes into the 1st quarter. The Packers rolled, but the Dolphins
are awful and it was freezing out. Both teams committed turnovers and only
combined for 671 yards, nothing by today’s NFL standards. Even Aaron Rodgers (199
passing yards; 2 TDs) failed to impress, but a win is a win, right? Is Brock Osweiler still
excited?
Seattle
Seahawks 4-4 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
8-1 (50): Rams 27-24 Rams 36-31
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons: The Seahawks were 3-1
after starting the season 1-2, on the backs of Russell Wilson (18 TDs; 5
INTs) and a defense ranked high enough (7th total defense; 5th
scoring defense – 19.5 ppg) you might think the Legion of Boom was still in
business. Earl Thomas must be rolling in his home. The Rams are, well, the
Rams. Los Angeles is 8-1 with their only loss of the season coming at New Orleans
in a 45-35 shootout, a tied game with ten minutes remaining in the 4th
quarter. The point spreads don’t really lie and this one telling us something
we already knew: The Rams are the far better team. I wouldn’t bet my money on
the 9.5 points, though, considering Los Angeles isn’t very disciplined (29th
PEN) and the Seahawks are really more like Ballhawks (6th
INTs).
Wow. The Rams helped obliterate another
O/U, this time at the expense of the Seahawks, although Seattle pushed Los
Angeles to the brink, even leading at two points during the game. That might seem
like a small deal, but the Rams are a one-loss team, arguably the best team in
the NFL, playing at home as 9.5-point favorites. A relatively evenly-played
game, the Seahawks one turnover, a Russell Wilson (176 passing yards; 3 TDs)
fumble on a strip sack by the newly acquired Dante Fowler, was the difference
in the game as nine seconds later Brandin Cooks scampered into the endzone on a
nine-yard run. The Seahawks story is a good one, but the Rams story is better
and their stars were shining Sunday.
Ezekiel Elliot and
the Dallas Cowboys try to salvage their season after an embarrassing loss to
the Tennessee Titans at home last week.
Dallas Cowboys 3-5 (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4-4
(43.5): Eagles 24-20 Cowboys 27-20
Sunday,
8:20PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Clear;
mids-30s)
Reasons: Two teams with Ezekiel
Elliot, Amari Cooper, Carson Wentz, Zack Ertz, Alshon Jeffery and Golden Tate
are only worth 43.5 combined points in 2018. That has to tell us one of two
things; or maybe both. The Eagles and Cowboys possess stellar defenses, both
ranked in the top five in points allowed. The problem is both teams were known
for the offenses coming into the season, and neither has produced up to the
expected level; in fact, the Cowboys have been nothing short of abysmal (26th
points scored; 27th total offense; 27th PEN; 28th
3rd-down efficiency). The Eagles have underperformed as well,
but the trade for Golden Tate might’ve been just what the Eagles needed to open
up the run game and stretch the field away from Jeffery. The Cowboys may only
one be one game back behind the Eagles, but they’re moving in the opposite
direction fast.
The Cowboys never trailed on the road
Sunday night, which is almost as amazing as how badly the Eagles season has
gone. So much for Golden Tate (2 rec; 19 yards) saving the day. Take note I predicted the Eagles would miss the playoffs in the beginning of the season. Philadelphia sacked Dak Prescott (270 passing yards; 1 TD) four times and forced Prescott
and Ezekiel Elliot (19 carries; 151 yards; 1 TD) to fumble, but not recover,
and Zack Ertz (14 rec; 145 yards;, 2 TDs) had a monster game dialed in with
Carson Wentz all night (360 passing yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT). Alas, Dallas won in
the champ’s house and saved their season, plummeting Philadelphia’s chances of
making the playoffs down to 35% in the process (although, coincidentally, the
Cowboys playoff chances are pretty much the same as Philadelphia’s).
New York Giants 1-7 (+3)
@ San Francisco 49ers 2-7 (44.5): 49ers 27-23 Giants 27-23
Monday, 8:15
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-50s)
Reasons: When
the 49ers played the Arizona Cardinals three weeks ago the Cardinals had one
win. Last week the 49ers played the Oakland Raiders, who are 1-7. This week the
49ers get the Giants, who are 1-7. You could say San Francisco has benefited
from a weak SOS the past three games (combined .167 winning %), but it’s
not like the 49ers have taken advantage of it, only going 1-1. The last time
the 49ers played a one-win team at home they crushed them. That was last week,
and the taste is still fresh, so lucky for them they’re facing Eli Manning (8
TDs; 6 INTs), but apparently only because Eli’s replacement got arrested
last week. The truth of the matter is the Giants aren’t only bad in the
standings, they’re bad on paper and they’re terrible to the eye. The 49ers are
a relatively good football team when healthy, but no one ever is. I’m shocked
the Giants are only three-point underdogs; that spread wreaks of New York
desperation. I’m not buying it.
Nothing like nailing the score with the wrong teams.
Nick Mullens (250 passing yards; 1 TD; 2 INTs) came back down to Earth Monday
night and Matt Breida’s (17 carries; 101 yards; 1 TD) big night wasn’t enough
to take down the hapless Giants, arguably the worst team in the NFL, as Odell
Beckham Jr. (4 receptions for 73 yards; 2 TDs) had his best game to date this
season and Eli Manning (188 passing yards; 3 TDs) was able to keep the wolves
at bay for another week.
BYEs: Baltimore; Denver; Houston;
Minnesota
Stay tuned for Week 11: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Sunday!
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