2018 NFL SEASON
Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/
spreads & analysis)
Week 8 results: 10-4
(wins); 6-8 (v. spread); 8-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 79-40-2 .664
(wins); 58-60-3 .492 (v. sp); 65-55-1 .542 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
This week's Thursday Night Football game is a gem, featuring both Bay Area NFL teams with a stellar combined record of 2-13 (.133).
Oakland Raiders 1-6 (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers 1-7 (47): 49ers 24-22
Thursday, 8:20 PM,
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear; high-50s)
Reasons: This
is the second week in a row the 49ers play in a putrid game. San Francisco can
only be responsible for 50% of that and this week they host the equally
terrible Oakland Raiders, who just so happen to reside across the Bay. These poor
Bay Area football fans. Not only are Raiders fans losing their team, but these
fans are suffering through an unexpected rebuild with a crazy person at the
wheel. The 49ers were building a team themselves until Jimmy Garoppolo made the
most inexplicable “move” in his career and jeopardized his, and the 49ers,
future. These are two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Raiders gain mediocre yard
totals (17th) as they desperately try to keep up with
their opponents; the 49ers only allow a moderate number of yards (17th). Besides those metrics both
teams rank in the bottom 25% of the league in the important metrics from points
scored and allowed, to sacks and INTS and turnover ratios. I’d say this game is
about as unpredictable as Jon Gruden, especially considering we don’t even know
if Beat Hard’s wrist is healed.
Chicago Bears 4-3 (-9.5) @
Buffalo Bills 2-6 (37): Bears 24-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY
(Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The Bears are quietly one of the best teams in football,
despite their modest 4-3 record, which can largely be explained away by fluky or
Patriots losses and wins against teams with a combined 13-18 (.419) record. Regardless, Chicago ranks
in the top-10 in total offense and defense, points scored and points against,
turnover ratio, sacks, interceptions, 3rd-down efficiency and time
of possession. The Bills are ranked high in none of those metrics, except total
defense (6th). Buffalo
simply can’t score and will send Nathan Peterman to the slaughter Sunday.
Normally I’d stay clear of 9.5-point road favorites, but this is a serious
mismatch.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers 3-4 (+6.5) @ Carolina
Panthers 5-2 (55): Panthers 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons:
The Bucs have gone with early season
firecracker Ryan Fitzmagic (13 TDs; 5
INTs) against the Panthers Sunday, benching Jameis Winston (7 TOT TDs; 10 INTs; 4 FUM) for the
millionth time in his short career. Tampa Bay averages 28.7 ppg (7th) and has the top-ranked
total offense; they’re absolutely awful at everything else. Fitzpatrick
certainly gives the Bucs the best chance to win, but Cam Newton (17 TOT TDs) and the Panthers are 4-0 at
home this season.
Kansas City Chiefs 7-1 (-8.5) @
Cleveland Browns 2-5-1 (52): 33-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Partly Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: I wish
I could say something positive about the Browns, who certainly look better than
they have in a long time, yet remain 2-5-1 and in turmoil. Cleveland just fired
Hue Jackson, kept Todd Haley and promoted Gregg “Bounty Gate” Williams. Are you
effing kidding me? That’s about the worst system you could surround rookie
Baker Mayfield with. Cleveland has a winning record at home (2-1-1), but
are 1-4 in their last five games, averaging only 21.8 ppg, with a 42-point game
against the Raiders inflating things. It’s
business as usual for the Chiefs, who have rolled through every opponent they
have faced expect the New England Patriots, who they brought to the brink.
This is basically the only picture I can get of Sam Darnold that is licensed for reuse.
New York Jets 3-5 (+3)
@ Miami Dolphins 4-4 (45): Dolphins 24-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20% rain; low
80s)
Reasons: Both of these teams suck at everything but
intercepting the ball (NYJ: 5th;
MIA: 2nd) so I would expect plenty of INTs Sunday.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 4-2-1 (+3) @
Baltimore Ravens 4-4
(47): Ravens 27-24
Sunday, 1:00
PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: The Ravens have lost three of their last four games
and are suddenly .500 after starting the season 3-1, while the Steelers have
won three games in a row after starting the season 1-2-1, setting up the potential
for Pittsburgh to get within smelling distance of the AFC North lead after a disastrous
start. Le’Veon Bell is still a no-show, but that hasn’t slowed the Steelers
top-5 offense. The defense has been an issue, but it’s not the Baltimore offense
Pittsburgh needs to be worried about – it’s the Ravens defense. The Ravens have
the top-ranked total defense and lead the league in points against and sacks.
Las Vegas is expecting a defensive battle, which is strange for two teams
averaging a combined 54.6 ppg. The rivalry is fierce and therein might lie the
answer to a suppressed O/U.
Detroit
Lions 3-4 (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings
4-3-1 (49.5): Vikings
27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis,
MN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: If my cousin hadn’t pointed
out I’ve been writing about the Vikings playing in an open stadium for two
years I would’ve talked about how the Lions would be out of their comfy
confines of their dome and in the Minnesota cold, but alas, it’s the same difference.
There’s also not much difference between these two teams, except for on paper
the Vikings have a much better defense. The Lions just traded away Golden Tate,
which means they could be beginning to think about waving the white flag. The
Vikings at home could be a smart place to wave that flag, although the Buffalo
Bills won there.
Atlanta
Falcons 3-4 (+1.5) @ Washington
Football Team 5-2
(47): WFT 26-24
Sunday, 1:00
PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: Don’t look now, but Washington is pretty good. Anchored by Alex Smith
the game manager and a resurgent Adrian Peterson on his way to another
1,000-yard season, Washington also boasts a top-5 defense and have the 3rd-ranked
turnover ratio. The Falcons are essentially none of those things; in fact, they’re
one of the three worst defenses in the league. The Falcons can score points (27.1
ppg 11th), however, and their seventh-ranked offense is efficient
(2nd in 3rd-down efficiency) and deadly at times.
This is one of the hardest game to call in Week 8, but Washington is on a roll
and Atlanta is unpredictable on the road.
DeAndre Hopkins lost fellow wide out William Fuller IV to injury, but got another wide out in Demarius Thomas via trade from the Denver Broncos.
Houston Texans 5-3 (+1) @ Denver Broncos 3-5
(46.5): Texans
24-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The
Texans and Deshaun Watson (16 TOT TDs; 7 INTs) are back to playoff form,
winners of five straight games after starting the season 0-3. The Broncos are
trending in the opposite direction, going 1-4 in the last five games, while
trading off one of their best offensive players in wide receiver Demarius
Thomas, who was traded to, you guessed it, the Houston Texans, who were able to
replace the recently injured William Fuller IV. Thomas won’t replace Fuller
completely, but will certainly help stretch the field and keep DeAndre Hopkins
single-covered. The Broncos are home, but unfortunately that doesn’t mean much
anymore with a mediocre defense.
Los
Angeles Chargers 5-2 (+1.5) @
Seattle Seahawks 4-3 (48): Chargers 24-23
Sunday,
4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 70% rain; high 50s)
Reasons: This is
one of the sneaky best games of Week 8. The Chargers have one of the most
dynamic offenses in the league (6th
total offense; 8th points scored – 27.9 ppg), while the Seahawks
have climbed back into the ranks of the league’s best defenses (4th PA – 18.7 ppg; 5th
total defense) despite missing the Legion of Boom. The Chargers are 2-1 on
the road and are coming off their bye, they’re disciplined (6th PEN) and have one of the
best turnover ratios in the league (4th)
aided by their ball-hawking abilities (8th
INTs). All of this should be enough to overcome the 12th Man,
where Seattle is only 1-1 so far in 2018.
Los
Angeles Rams 8-0 (+1.5) @ New Orleans Saints 6-1 (60): Saints 31-30
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This game opened with a record-breaking O/U
of 60 points, narrowly edging out the then record-breaking opening 59.5 O/U in the KC vs NE game
Week 6. You can almost guarantee that O/U will be surpassed, if not obliterated.
This game features the NFL’s two offensive juggernauts, the 2nd- and
3rd-ranked scoring offenses in the league separated by a mere 0.4
ppg. The difference in the game will likely be between the Rams stellar defense
(6th PA – 19.4 ppg; 8th
total defense; 9th sacks) and the Saints home field advantage, which
started slow with a loss and a near OT game with the Cleveland Browns, but
rebounded with a destruction of the Washington Football Team Week 5. Both teams are
relatively healthy and on fire. I expect a shoot out of epic proportions, with
the Saints slightly edging the Rams and giving Los Angeles their first loss of the season.
Sunday,
8:20PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Cloudy; high-30s)
Reasons: The man crushing is over; the psychological
mind games have ceased and now two of the best quarterbacks of their generation
battle Sunday night in the NFL Game of the Week. The Patriots have silenced all
of the haters and Patriots-demise-hopeful critics, winning five straight after starting the
season 1-2. The Packers have been toiling in mediocrity all season, and would
have a losing record if not for a miraculous 4th-quarter comeback
against the Chicago Bears Week 1. Aaron Rodgers (13 TDs; 1 INT) is putting up MVP numbers, but something isn’t the
same and it goes beyond his injured knee. Tom Brady isn’t putting up MVP
numbers (16 TDs; 7 INTs), but once
again has his team in total control and on their way to dominating the AFC
again in 2018 after taking down the upstart Kansas City Chiefs Week 6. The
cheat sheet is out on these two teams: A dynamic offense (NE ranks 4th in points scored – 29.9 ppg) led by future Hall-of-Famer Brady
versus the dynamic offense known as future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers with two
mediocre defenses just hoping not to be embarrassed on national television.
Soak this game in folks, they don’t happen often.
The Dallas Cowboys have relied on young stars Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott to varied results, so the addition of wide receiver Amari Cooper via trade with the oakland Raiders should help.
Tennessee Titans 3-4 (+6.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys 3-4 (41): Cowboys 20-17
Monday,
8:15 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Simply
put this game features two of the league’s best defenses against two of the
league’s worst offenses. Tennessee ranks 3rd in points against (18.1
ppg) and 11th in total defense while Dallas ranks 2nd
in points against and 3rd in total defense. The similarities don’t
stop there; neither team ranks higher than 26th in total offense or
points scored, hence one of the lowest O/U total of the season not involving
the Buffalo Bills. Both teams have been a disappointment so far in 2018, but
what hasn’t been disappointing, but certainly surprising, is Dallas’ home record
(3-0), which for once could be the difference in the game in their
favor. Recently traded wide receiver Amari Cooper could be another difference,
but for some reason, I just don’t see it playing a factor…yet.
BYEs: Arizona; Cincinnati; Indianapolis; Jacksonville; New York (N); Philadelphia
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 9 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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