2018 NFL SEASON
Tuesday’s Gone: Week 9 #NFL Game Reviews
Week 9 results: 10-3
(wins); 4-9 (v. spread); 7-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 89-43-2 .674
(wins); 62-69-3 .473 (v. sp); 72-61-1 .541 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
This
week's Thursday Night Football game is a gem, featuring both Bay Area
NFL teams with a stellar combined record of 2-13 (.133).
Oakland
Raiders 1-6 (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers 1-7 (47):
49ers 24-22 49ers 34-3
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clear; high-50s)
Reasons: This is the second week in a row the 49ers play in a putrid
game. San Francisco can only be responsible for 50% of that and this week they
host the equally terrible Oakland Raiders, who just so happen to reside across
the Bay. These poor Bay Area football fans. Not only are Raiders fans losing
their team, but these fans are suffering through an unexpected rebuild with a
crazy person at the wheel. The 49ers were building a team themselves until
Jimmy Garoppolo made the most inexplicable “move” in his career and jeopardized
his, and the 49ers, future. These are two of the worst teams in the NFL. The
Raiders gain mediocre yard totals (17th) as they desperately try to keep up with
their opponents; the 49ers only allow a moderate number of yards (17th). Besides those metrics
both teams rank in the bottom 25% of the league in the important metrics from
points scored and allowed, to sacks and INTS and turnover ratios. I’d say this
game is about as unpredictable as Jon Gruden, especially considering we don’t
even know if Beat Hard’s wrist is healed.
Nick Mullins threw three touchdowns against the
Raiders to single-handily beat the Oakland Grudens Thursday night. Never heard
of Nick Mullins? Neither has anyone else. I wonder if he’s been hitting up
Gruden’s cell phone, too?
Chicago
Bears 4-3 (-9.5) @ Buffalo Bills 2-6 (37):
Bears 24-14 Bears 41-9
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons:
The Bears are quietly one of the best teams in football, despite their modest
4-3 record, which can largely be explained away by fluky or Patriots losses and
wins against teams with a combined 13-18 (.419)
record. Regardless, Chicago ranks in the top-10 in total offense and defense,
points scored and points against, turnover ratio, sacks, interceptions, 3rd-down
efficiency and time of possession. The Bills are ranked high in none of those
metrics, except total defense (6th).
Buffalo simply can’t score and will send Nathan Peterman to the slaughter
Sunday. Normally I’d stay clear of 9.5-point road favorites, but this is a
serious mismatch.
They were who we thought they were. – Dennis Green
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-4 (+6.5) @ Carolina Panthers 5-2 (55): Panthers 28-24 Panthers 42-28
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons: The
Bucs have gone with early season firecracker Ryan Fitzmagic (13 TDs; 5 INTs) against the Panthers
Sunday, benching Jameis Winston (7 TOT
TDs; 10 INTs; 4 FUM) for the millionth time in his short career. Tampa Bay
averages 28.7 ppg (7th)
and has the top-ranked total offense; they’re absolutely awful at everything
else. Fitzpatrick certainly gives the Bucs the best chance to win, but Cam
Newton (17 TOT TDs) and the Panthers
are 4-0 at home this season.
The Panthers put up 42 points on the worst defense in the NFL, which
shouldn’t surprise anyone, but it was interesting to see the Bucs put up 28 on
the Panthers great defense, which is Tampa Bay’s average and nearly a touchdown
more than the Panthers give up on average. Some won’t blink an eye, as the Bucs
can move the ball as well as anyone, but I’m looking towards future games
against teams like the New Orleans Saints. Tighten it up, Carolina.
Kansas City Chiefs 7-1 (-8.5) @
Cleveland Browns 2-5-1 (52): Chiefs 33-24 Chiefs 37-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Partly Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: I wish I could say something positive about the Browns, who
certainly look better than they have in a long time, yet remain 2-5-1 and in
turmoil. Cleveland just fired Hue Jackson, kept Todd Haley and promoted Gregg
“Bounty Gate” Williams. Are you effing kidding me? That’s about the worst
system you could surround rookie Baker Mayfield with. Cleveland has a winning
record at home (2-1-1), but are 1-4 in their last five games, averaging
only 21.8 ppg, with a 42-point game against the Raiders inflating things. It’s business as usual for the Chiefs, who
have rolled through every opponent they have faced expect the New England
Patriots, who they brought to the brink.
The Browns gave the Chiefs one of their biggest tests of the year,
which could’ve been expected as the new look Browns, as far as coaching is concerned,
should’ve come out with some fire lit under them. Unfortunately, that test only
lasted the first half and the Chiefs came out and dropped 13 in the 3rd
quarter alone and never looked back. Fake rookie Patrick Mahomes threw three more TDs
in his MVP campaign while the real rookie Baker Mayfield continued through the
learning process and was injured, again.
This is basically the only picture I can get of Sam Darnold that is licensed for reuse.
New York
Jets 3-5 (+3) @ Miami Dolphins 4-4 (45): Dolphins
24-23 Dolphins 13-6
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
(Weather: 20% rain; low 80s)
Reasons: Both of these teams suck at everything but intercepting the
ball (NYJ: 5th; MIA: 2nd)
so I would expect plenty of INTs Sunday.
Sam Darnold threw four INTs and made your boy feel
like a genius. Just kidding, anyone could’ve predicted that. If not for a 4th
quarter touchdown this is a field goal fest.
Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2-1 (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens 4-4 (47): Ravens
27-24 Steelers 23-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny;
high 50s)
Reasons: The Ravens have lost three of
their last four games and are suddenly .500 after starting the season 3-1,
while the Steelers have won three games in a row after starting the season
1-2-1, setting up the potential for Pittsburgh to get within smelling distance
of the AFC North lead after a disastrous start. Le’Veon Bell is still a
no-show, but that hasn’t slowed the Steelers top-5 offense. The defense has
been an issue, but it’s not the Baltimore offense Pittsburgh needs to be
worried about – it’s the Ravens defense. The Ravens have the top-ranked total
defense and lead the league in points against and sacks. Las Vegas is expecting
a defensive battle, which is strange for two teams averaging a combined 54.6
ppg. The rivalry is fierce and therein might lie the answer to a suppressed
O/U.
The Ravens have gone
from Super Bowl contenders to entering their mid-season swoon where Joe Flacco’s
horrible play actually starts to creep in and effect the entire Baltimore team. Flacco failed
to throw a single touchdown pass and the Ravens only managed 265 total yards
against a mediocre Steelers defense. You can argue about rivalries all you want;
this game was about the sudden collapse of what once was a scary Baltimore
team.
Detroit Lions 3-4 (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-3-1 (49.5): Vikings 27-24 Vikings 24-9
Sunday,
1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: If my
cousin hadn’t pointed out I’ve been writing about the Vikings playing in an
open stadium for two years I would’ve talked about how the Lions would be out
of their comfy confines of their dome and in the Minnesota cold, but alas, it’s
the same difference. There’s also not much difference between these two teams,
except for on paper the Vikings have a much better defense. The Lions just
traded away Golden Tate, which means they could be beginning to think about
waving the white flag. The Vikings at home could be a smart place to wave that
flag, although the Buffalo Bills won there.
The Vikings have to be happy with the win,
especially holding the Lions to nine points after Detroit has averaged 24.4 ppg all
season. However, the Vikings still have yet to put up the consistent dominating
performances we expected in 2018, or better put, their talent warrants. If
not for a Danielle Hunter fumble return touchdown midway through the 4th
quarter the Vikings offense would have been exposed, especially considering
the Lions are 26th in the league in points against (26.6 ppg). Regardless,
the Vikings remain in control of their destiny, which is all an NFL team can
ask for.
Atlanta Falcons 3-4 (+1.5) @ Washington Football Team 5-2 (47): WFT 26-24 Falcons 38-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field,
Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: Don’t
look now, but Washington is pretty good. Anchored by Alex Smith the game
manager and a resurgent Adrian Peterson on his way to another 1,000-yard
season, Washington also boasts a top-5 defense and have the 3rd-ranked
turnover ratio. The Falcons are essentially none of those things; in fact,
they’re one of the three worst defenses in the league. The Falcons can score
points (27.1 ppg 11th), however, and their seventh-ranked
offense is efficient (2nd in 3rd-down efficiency)
and deadly at times. This is one of the hardest games to call in Week 8, but
Washington is on a roll and Atlanta is unpredictable on the road.
You know it’s bad when Alex Smith leads the team
in rushing. The score almost seems flipped at first glance, especially considering Washington
came into the game with one of the best defenses in the NFL and were playing at
home. Such wasn’t the case, and Matt Ryan took advantage of the one weakness the
Washington defenses has, their inability to stop the pass, and threw four
passing touchdowns to Travis Coleman (2), Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who
continues to crush his rookie campaign.
DeAndre
Hopkins lost fellow wide out William Fuller IV to injury, but got
another wide out in Demarius Thomas via trade from the Denver Broncos.
Houston
Texans 5-3 (+1)
@ Denver Broncos 3-5 (46.5): Texans 24-21 Texans 19-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons:
The Texans and Deshaun Watson (16 TOT TDs; 7 INTs) are back to playoff
form, winners of five straight games after starting the season 0-3. The Broncos
are trending in the opposite direction, going 1-4 in the last five games, while
trading off one of their best offensive players in wide receiver Demaryius
Thomas, who was traded to, you guessed it, the Houston Texans, who were able to
replace the recently injured William Fuller IV. Thomas won’t replace Fuller
completely, but will certainly help stretch the field and keep DeAndre Hopkins
single-covered. The Broncos are home, but unfortunately that doesn’t mean much
anymore with a mediocre defense.
Demaryius
Thomas (3 REC for 61 YDs) was traded to the Texans, immediately plays the Broncos in Denver and helped
Houston escape with a win after Brandon McManus missed a 51-yard field goal as
time expired.
Los Angeles Chargers 5-2 (+1.5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 4-3
(48): Chargers 24-23 Chargers
25-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field,
Seattle, WA (Weather: 70% rain; high 50s)
Reasons: This is one of the sneaky best games of Week 8. The
Chargers have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league (6th total offense; 8th
points scored – 27.9 ppg), while the Seahawks have climbed back into the
ranks of the league’s best defenses (4th
PA – 18.7 ppg; 5th total defense) despite missing the Legion of
Boom. The Chargers are 2-1 on the road and are coming off their bye, they’re
disciplined (6th PEN) and
have one of the best turnover ratios in the league (4th) aided by their ball-hawking abilities (8th INTs). All of this should
be enough to overcome the 12th Man, where Seattle is only 1-1 so far
in 2018.
The Chargers continued to chip away at their place among the elite
in the AFC after beating the Seahawks in Seattle Sunday. Los Angeles held the
Seahawks to only 17 points, survived a late push from Russell Wilson (235 PASS YDS;
2 TDs; 1 INT) and the Chargers offense kept rolling with Keenan Allen (6 REC; 124 REC
YDS) and Melvin Gordon (16 CAR for 113 YDS; 1 TD) under the leadership of MVP
candidate Phillip Rivers (19 TDs; 114 RATING), who played in his 200th
consecutive game.
Los Angeles Rams 8-0 (+1.5)
@ New Orleans Saints 6-1 (60): Saints 31-30 Saints 45-35
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz
Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This game opened with a record-breaking O/U of 60 points,
narrowly edging out the then record-breaking opening 59.5 O/U in the KC vs NE
game Week 6. You can almost guarantee that O/U will be surpassed, if not
obliterated. This game features the NFL’s two offensive juggernauts, the 2nd-
and 3rd-ranked scoring offenses in the league separated by a mere
0.4 ppg. The difference in the game will likely be between the Rams stellar
defense (6th PA – 19.4 ppg; 8th
total defense; 9th sacks) and the Saints home field advantage,
which started slow with a loss and a near OT game with the Cleveland Browns,
but rebounded with a destruction of the Washington Football Team Week 5. Both
teams are relatively healthy and on fire. I expect a shoot out of epic
proportions, with the Saints slightly edging the Rams and giving Los Angeles
their first loss of the season.
The Saints proved they’re the cream of the NFL
crop Sunday, pushing aside the young undefeated Rams and handing them their
first loss, and a glimpse of life outside Los Angeles if they don’t secure home
field advantage, which will certainly be harder now. It’s interesting that
every other star in the league gets a pass for their shortcomings, yet here is
Drew Brees, playing without a defense again and the first truly dynamic running
back we’ve seen in New Orleans in years (Alvin Kamara: 19 CAR for 82 RUSH YDS;
2 TDs) at his usual All-Pro MVP status. Brees threw four more touchdowns
Sunday, his 18th of the year, on 346 passing yards, 211 of which
went to Michael Thomas, who paid homage to the old Joe Horn flip phone in the
end zone celebration dance with his only touchdown. The game was tied at the
ten-minute mark, but 10 unanswered points, including the aforementioned flip
phone TD, sealed the game for the Saints.
Green Bay Packers 3-3-1 (+6)
@ New England Patriots 6-2 (56.5):
Patriots 31*-27 Patriots 31*-17
Sunday, 8:20PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Cloudy; high-30s)
Reasons: The man crushing is over; the psychological mind games have
ceased and now two of the best quarterbacks of their generation battle Sunday
night in the NFL Game of the Week. The Patriots have silenced all of the haters
and Patriots-demise-hopeful critics, winning five straight after starting the
season 1-2. The Packers have been toiling in mediocrity all season, and would
have a losing record if not for a miraculous 4th-quarter comeback
against the Chicago Bears Week 1. Aaron Rodgers (13 TDs; 1 INT) is putting up MVP numbers, but something isn’t the
same and it goes beyond his injured knee. Tom Brady isn’t putting up MVP
numbers (16 TDs; 7 INTs), but once
again has his team in total control and on their way to dominating the AFC
again in 2018 after taking down the upstart Kansas City Chiefs Week 6. The
cheat sheet is out on these two teams: A dynamic offense (NE ranks 4th in points scored – 29.9 ppg) led by future Hall-of-Famer Brady
versus the dynamic offense known as future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers with two
mediocre defenses just hoping not to be embarrassed on national television.
Soak this game in folks, they don’t happen often.
Damn Packers ruined my two-team over parlay,
managing only a putrid 17 points against the team giving up over 23 ppg, despite
having the supposed best quarterback in the NFL at the helm in Aaron Rodgers (259
PASS YDS; 2 TDs). The play wasn’t really about the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks,
though, as the media had obsessed over. No, the game was about coaching and
Bill Belichick clearly won it, utilizing a quick pace method that had the
undersized Packers on their heels only to abandon the style once the Packers adapted. So
much of the NFL is about adjustments and New England simply makes more of the
right ones than most other teams, which was on display Sunday night.
The
Dallas Cowboys have relied on young stars Ezekiel Elliot and Dak
Prescott to varied results, so the addition of wide receiver Amari
Cooper via trade with the oakland Raiders should help.
Tennessee
Titans 3-4 (+6.5) @ Dallas
Cowboys 3-4 (41):
Cowboys 20-17 Titans
28-14
Monday, 8:15 PM, AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Simply put this game features two of the league’s best
defenses against two of the league’s worst offenses. Tennessee ranks 3rd
in points against (18.1 ppg) and 11th in total defense while
Dallas ranks 2nd in points against and 3rd in total
defense. The similarities don’t stop there; neither team ranks higher than 26th
in total offense or points scored, hence one of the lowest O/U total of the
season not involving the Buffalo Bills. Both teams have been a disappointment
so far in 2018, but what hasn’t been disappointing, but certainly surprising,
is Dallas’ home record (3-0), which for once could be the difference in
the game in their favor. Recently traded wide receiver Amari Cooper could be
another difference, but for some reason, I just don’t see it playing a factor…yet.
So much for the bye week. So much for the undefeated home record. So
much for giving up a first round draft pick for Amari Cooper. So much for
displaying that new toy on the national stage on Monday Night Football. Dak
Prescott was abysmal Monday night, committing two critical turnovers that led to 14
Tennessee points. Prescott (243 PASS YDS; 2 TDs) did find Cooper for a
touchdown, the first score of the game to be exact, but the thunderous roars of joy turned into a quiet murmur as the game progressed and Marcus Mariota (240 PASS YDS; 3
TOT TDs) torched one of the NFL’s best defenses in their own house. All is not
well in Dallas, and it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better anytime soon.
Stay tuned for Week 10: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Sunday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.