2018 NFL SEASON
Week 10: #NFL Game Predictions (w/
spreads & analysis)
Week 9 results: 10-3
(wins); 4-9 (v. spread); 7-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 89-43-2
.674 (wins); 62-69-3 .473 (v. sp); 72-61-1 .541 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
As well as Cam Newton has played in the past the Carolina Panthers defense has mostly carried him; such is not the case in 2018.
Carolina
Panthers 6-2 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
Steelers 5-2-1 (52): Steelers 28-27
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Clear; low 40s)
Reasons: Long know for stifling
defenses, the Panthers head to Pittsburgh Thursday night to face one of the
most dynamic offenses in the NFL with their own highly-ranked dynamic offense.
That’s not to say both teams don’t possess good defenses, as both rank between 12th-15th
in total defense and points against, while the Panthers ranked 4th
in INTs and the Steelers rank 4th in sacks, both of which will come
into play Thursday night. No, this game is about two offenses that scores 28.5
ppg (PIT – ranked 9th) and 27.5 ppg (CAR – ranked 11th),
respectively. Besides being home, which the 2-2 Steelers don’t hold much of an
advantage so far this season, other than the Panthers poor road record (1-2),
Pittsburgh holds the ball (3rd TOP) and has the 5th-best
3rd-down efficiency in the NFL; in other words, keep the ball away
from Cam Newton and tire the Panthers defense. On the other hand, the Steelers are
the most penalized team in the league yardage-wise, while the Panthers, miraculously,
are one of the league’s most disciplined (5th). The Steelers
also turn the ball over (21st), while the Panthers don’t (4th).
As much as I like this rising Carolina team, the Steelers are hot and playing
home in the short week. If it were Sunday or in Carolina, I’d be inclined to
pick different. Panthers cover, but Pittsburgh escapes with the win.
New England
Patriots 7-2 (-6.5) @ Tennessee
Titans 4-4 (47): Patriots 28-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny;
low 50s)
Reasons: The
current Patriots face the old Patriots in Nashville Sunday as former Patriot
player/coach Mike Vrabel and a grip of former Patriots players (e.g. Malcolm
Butler; Deion Lewis; Logan Ryan) take on a current Patriots team that has
once again gone from getting hater’s hopes up to rounding into shape as the
best team in the AFC right when it counts. The Patriots are banged up, however, and Tennessee is trying to salvage their season after losing three straight,
before last week’s win at the Dallas Cowboys. The Titans also lost two of those three
games by a point (BUF; LAC) and, at the time, one of the best teams
in the league (BAL), and come into Sunday’s game with the 8th-ranked
total defense and the top-ranked scoring defense (17.6 ppg). This should
be interesting because the Patriots come into the game with the 9th-ranked
total offense and the 5th-ranked scoring offense (30.0 ppg) and
Bill Belichick doesn’t lose to his pupils often. Expect a highly-disciplined
game between teacher and student, from which the Patriots emerge victors.
Detroit Lions 3-5 (+6.5) @
Chicago Bears 5-3 (44): Bears 28-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field,
Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons: The
Lions are 1-3 on the road this year, although two of those losses have come by
three or fewer points, but they haven’t faced a defense like Chicago’s (4th PA; 5th total)
on the road yet. The Lions aren't exactly offensive world-beaters to
begin with (20th total
offense; 20th points scored). The Bears are an OT loss and a
close loss to the Patriots from a 7-1 record. Both teams get after the quarterback and
both teams keep the opposing offenses on the bench, but the Bears have the superior
defense, which is the cause in the discrepancy between turnover ratios (CHI: 2nd; DET: 22nd).
Detroit has struggled the past few weeks against good defenses, which will
likely continue Sunday against Chicago, who just happens to score the 6th
most points in the league (29.4 ppg).
New Orleans Saints 7-1 (-5.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-3 (54): Saints 33-28
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny;
mid-40s)
Reasons:
The Bengals lost to the Chiefs (7-1), the Steelers (5-2-1 before Thursday)
and Panthers (6-2 before Thursday)
this year, arguably three of the best teams in the NFL, and have the 10th-ranked
scoring offense (27.6 ppg). So why is
Cincinnati 5.5-point underdogs at home? For one, their defense gives up an astounding
29.6 ppg (30th) while
giving up the most yards in the league, they don’t sack the quarterback, aren’t
very disciplined (11th most
penalized offense) and keep their defense on the field longer than almost
every team in the league, hence the yards against totals. The Bengals just aren’t
very buttoned up, which is the opposite of the well-oiled Saints, who despite
possessing yet another terrible defense, is one of the best teams in the
league.
Matt
Ryan is playing at an MVP level again and the Atlanta Falcons are slowly
creeping towards salvaging a season that started 1-4 start
Atlanta
Falcons 4-4 (-6) @ Cleveland Browns 2-6-1 (50.5): Falcons 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Reasons: This is the second straight preview of a game involving a road
favorite of at least 5.5 points, against a team from Ohio, no less. The Falcons
have won three straight games after starting the season 1-4 and boast the 5th-ranked
total offense and 9th-ranked scoring offense in addition to being the
most efficient team in the league on 3rd-down. These six points come
from the lack of respect Las Vegas has for the Browns more than they come from
Atlanta’s superiority. The Browns are in disarray after firing
head coach Hue Jackson and naming Gregg Williams as interim coach as they watch
the nagging injuries pile up on rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Cleveland is
best at home, so we’ll see…
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-5 (+3)
@ Indianapolis Colts 3-5 (46.5): Colts 24-23
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
(Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: I’ve had to look at this point spread a million
times, but it only takes one look at the records to see why: These are two even
teams. Sacksonville is no more; they rank 25th in sacks. The intimidation
is no longer there. The loudest defensive backfield in the NFL is ranked 24th
in INTs. Somehow the Jaguars still rank 2nd in total defense and 8th
in PA (21.2 ppg), but no one scared
anymore, especially not a recharged Andrew Luck (23 TDs; 8 INTs), who leads the NFL’s 10th-ranked total
offense while scoring a 7th-best 28.9 ppg. That’s another thing I
had to look at a million times. It’s hard to fathom teams with top-10 offenses
and defenses fighting for their seasons at 3-5, but such is the AFC South.
Arizona
Cardinals 2-6 (+16.5) @ Kansas
City Chiefs 8-1 (49.5): Chiefs 30-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny;
mid-40s)
Reasons: The Chiefs have only played
in two games that began the week with O/Us under 50 points – Week 1 v. LAC (48)
and Week 5 against the then-stout Jaguars defense (48.5). Those are two great
defenses, or were in the case of Jacksonville, and the Cardinals, well, aren’t.
Basically Las Vegas sees Kansas City winning this game 33-17 considering the spread.
Arizona ranks 17th in points against, and before you argue against that
being “bad”, they give up 24.5 ppg. That’s today’s NFL, where giving up more
than three TDs and a FG makes you an average defense. Everyone knows about the
Chiefs so this game is really about how badly Kansas City beats the Cardinals.
Buffalo
Bills 2-7 (+7) @ New York Jets 3-6
(36.5): Jets 20-14
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Reasons: From games with inflated O/Us to the lowest O/U of
the 2018 season the Bills head to NJ to face the Jets in the Snooze Bowl. The
Jets rank 6th in INTs and could be picking of Nathan Peterman all
day, except they'll be picking off Matt Barkley instead. Then again, Sam Darnold is known for throwing to the other team, too, except
Darnold likely isn’t playing, either. In other words, as if two rookie quarterbacks with
combined 5-13 records facing off wasn’t cause enough to turn the channel, their
backups and third-stringers certainly will be.
Doug
Martin might not be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers anymore, but for all intents
and purposes it seems neither is Jameis Winston.
Washington
Football Team 5-3 (+3) @ Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 3-5 (51): Bucs 27-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Partly sunny; low
80s)
Reasons:
Washington was on their way to being respected around the league until
Atlanta destroyed them in their own house Sunday, forcing people to take a
closer look, exposing the fact Washington is one of only two teams in the NFL
with a negative point differential without a losing record (CIN,
coincidentally also 5-3). The Buccaneers might be the most exciting team in
football, from their high-flying offense (2nd total; 8th
PA 28.6 ppg) to their horrid defense (29th total; 32nd PA
34.4 ppg) to the quarterback carousel. If it weren’t for a historically bad
defense this Bucs team would be battling for the NFC South, but alas they’re
not. Meanwhile the Washington defense is the only thing keeping them ahead of
the NFC East.
Los Angeles Chargers 6-2 (-10) @ Oakland Raiders 1-7 (49.5): Chargers 31-17
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: Here’s another one of
those games where Las Vegas sees an obvious blowout as evidenced by an O/U less
than 50 with a spread of ten points. The intuitive numbers scream 30-20 Chargers,
but in reality, the Raiders would be lucky to score 20 points, although it’s
literally the average between what the Raiders score (17.6 ppg) and
what the Chargers give up (22.5 ppg), which begs insight into how Vegas really
does things. I digress. The bottom line is the Chargers are light years more talented
than the Raiders, who have been shipping off talent at a dictator’s pace.
Miami
Dolphins 5-4 (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers 3-4-1
(47.5): Packers 27-23
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Cloudy; mid-30s)
Reasons: The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing loss
to the New England Patriots and are watching the Bears take control of the
division, which may explain why after being 9.5- and 6.5-point road underdogs
the past two weeks they’re nearly ten-point favorites at home against a
Dolphins team with a better record. The Dolphins only do one thing well, pick
off the opposing quarterback, so they’ll be gunning for Aaron Rodgers (15 TD
passes; 1 INT) all day, especially considering he just “lobs it up
there” as Bill Belichick so eloquently put it. The Packers are far better
statistically then their record suggests and they have the most talented player
in the league in Rodgers; the Dolphins are none of those things. Green Bay has
given up more than 30 ppg the past four weeks, but the Dolphins struggle to
score at times and haven’t played a game in cold weather yet.
Seattle
Seahawks 4-4 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
8-1 (50): Rams 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons: The Seahawks were 3-1
after starting the season 1-2, on the backs of Russell Wilson (18 TDs; 5
INTs) and a defense ranked high enough (7th total defense; 5th
scoring defense – 19.5 ppg) you might think the Legion of Boom was still in
business. Earl Thomas must be rolling in his home. The Rams are, well, the
Rams. Los Angeles is 8-1 with their only loss of the season coming at New Orleans
in a 45-35 shootout, a tied game with ten minutes remaining in the 4th
quarter. The point spreads don’t really lie and this one telling us something we
already knew: The Rams are the far better team. I wouldn’t bet my money on the
9.5 points, though, considering Los Angeles isn’t very disciplined (29th
PEN) and the Seahawks are really more like Ballhawks (6th
INTs).
Ezekiel Elliot and
the Dallas Cowboys try to salvage their season after an embarrassing loss to
the Tennessee Titans at home last week.
Dallas Cowboys 3-5 (+7) @ Philadelphia
Eagles 4-4 (43.5): Eagles 24-20
Sunday, 8:20PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA
(Weather: Clear; mids-30s)
Reasons: Two teams with Ezekiel
Elliot, Amari Cooper, Carson Wentz, Zack Ertz, Alshon Jeffery and Golden Tate
are only worth 43.5 combined points in 2018. That has to tell us one of two things;
or maybe both. The Eagles and Cowboys possess stellar defenses, both ranked in
the top five in points allowed. The problem is both teams were known for the
offenses coming into the season, and neither has produced up to the expected
level; in fact, the Cowboys have been nothing short of abysmal (26th
points scored; 27th total offense; 27th PEN; 28th
3rd-down efficiency). The Eagles have underperformed as well,
but the trade for Golden Tate might’ve been just what the Eagles needed to open
up the run game and stretch the field away from Jeffery. The Cowboys may only
one be one game back behind the Eagles, but they’re moving in the opposite direction
fast.
New York
Giants 1-7 (+3) @ San Francisco
49ers 2-7 (44.5): 49ers 27-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear;
mid-50s)
Reasons: When the 49ers played
the Arizona Cardinals three weeks ago the Cardinals had one win. Last week the
49ers played the Oakland Raiders, who are 1-7. This week the 49ers get the
Giants, who are 1-7. You could say San Francisco has benefited from a weak SOS the
past three games (combined .167 winning %), but it’s not like the 49ers
have taken advantage of it, only going 1-1. The last time the 49ers played a one-win
team at home they crushed them. That was last week, and the taste is still
fresh, so lucky for them they’re facing Eli Manning (8 TDs; 6 INTs), but
apparently only because Eli’s replacement got arrested last week. The truth of
the matter is the Giants aren’t only bad in the standings, they’re bad on paper
and they’re terrible to the eye. The 49ers are a relatively good football team
when healthy, but no one ever is. I’m shocked the Giants are only three-point
underdogs; that spread wreaks of New York desperation. I’m not buying it.
BYEs: Baltimore; Denver;
Houston; Minnesota
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 10 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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