2017
NFL SEASON
C H R I S T M A S
E D I T I O N
Week 16: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Week
15 results: 14-2 wins (season*: 128-69; .650); 6-8-2 v. spread (season*:
91-102-4; .475)
The most hated
man in Green Bay, Wisconsin also happens to be the most beloved man in
Minnesota, MN.
Saturday, 4:30 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Rain; high 50s)
Reasons:
The Colts have nothing but pride to play for Saturday, while the Ravens are fighting
for a playoff spot. Fighting is a strange word considering the Ravens are still
one of the ten best teams in the NFL in several important metrics, on both
sides of the ball no less, but such is life in the NFC North against the like
of the Pittsburgh Steelers every year. The Ravens should cruise in the mud and
pouring rain Saturday, but I’m not sure if anyone is winning by two touchdowns
in the weather that’s predicted.
Minnesota Vikings 11-3 (-9) @ Green Bay Packers 7-7 (41):
Vikings 20-14
Reasons:
Well, the Aaron Rodgers experiment failed, albeit barely, and now the Packers
are left playing spoiler against their long-time division rival, or better put,
long-time division enemy. The Vikings are playing for a top seed and home field
advantage throughout the playoffs, and what better way to end the season
without a playoff run than ruining a hated rival’s chances of doing anything
special in their own playoff run? That’s what the season has come down to for
Green Bay, as the most exciting thing happening these days in Lambeau is a
disgruntled food vendor smashing into other employee’s cars in the team parking
lot.
Cleveland Browns 0-14 (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears 4-10 (38): Bears 21-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier
Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 80% snow;
mid-20s)
Reasons:
4-10 doesn’t really sound too much better than 0-14, especially considering the
latter gains the top draft pick with their continued ineptitude. Then again,
that hasn’t really worked out for the Browns, either. This is the most
forgettable game of the weekend, as it’s one of the few games that don’t have any
playoff implications.
Detroit Lions 8-6 (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-9
(44):
Bengals 23-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Wintry mix; mid-30s)
Reasons:
The Lions are fighting for their playoff lives Sunday, and might need a
Christmas miracle considering Detroit’s entire offensive line seems questionable,
the only thing attractive about Cincinnati is their defensive front, and the
Lions are a dome team about to play in snow and freezing rain. Regardless, they’re
playing the Bengals, certainly one of the more disappointing teams in the NFL
in 2017.
No need to look confused, Todd Gurley, you’re the best running back in
the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams 10-4 (-6.5) @ Tennessee Titans 8-6
(47.5):
Rams 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan
Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Chance
rain; mid-40s)
Reasons:
It might rain, which the Rams aren’t used to, but that’s about the only thing
that’s going to stop the Rams Sunday. The Rams are scoring more than 31 ppg and
holding opponents to fewer than 20 ppg, while the Titans, despite a winning record,
have actually given up nearly two more per game than they score. The Rams have
a chance to wrap up the NFC West, although the Titans are still fighting for
their playoff lives, too. I don’t see a Titans team that has lost to the
Cardinals and 49ers in consecutive weeks beating a Rams team that owns that
very division.
Miami Dolphins 6-8 (+10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 8-6 (43.5):
Chiefs 28-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead
Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Clear;
low 30s)
Reasons:
The Chiefs are in control of their own destiny, which is saying something for a
team that started the season 5-0 and then subsequently lost six of their next nine
games. The Dolphins are holding on to their playoff hopes for dear life, with
Jay Cutler at the wheel, so if I’m the Chiefs at home in Arrowhead I like my
chances.
Buffalo Bills 8-6 (+12) @ New England Patriots 11-3 (47): Patriots 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Reasons:
The Bills haven’t made the playoffs in 17 years, but they have a chance this
season, so of course Buffalo travels to New England in Week 16 to take on the
team that has owned them at Gillette Stadium almost as long as the Bills have
been in their playoff drought. The Patriots are coming off a two-game stretch
where they lost a game (Miami) and
then miraculously won a game (Pittsburgh),
so on one hand you might think they’re vulnerable, but the smart money says the
Patriots will take that miracle, button up, and prepare to get on track as the
playoffs near.
Atlanta Falcons 9-5 (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints 10-4
(52.5):
Saints 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Superdome,
New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Falcons just beat the Saints 20-17 two weeks ago, and as Atlanta gave the
Saints their second loss in three weeks, after New Orleans had won eight straight
games, I had a feeling Drew Brees and the Saints would be circling this game at
home to get revenge on their division rivals. New Orleans doesn’t have a choice,
as Atlanta has the tiebreaker advantage over the Saints, and the Carolina
Panthers are right there at 10-4 as well. The last time the NFC South was so
dominant it was all the way back in 2010 when the division had three teams with
10 or more wins. The NFC sent the Tampa Buccaneers packing with a 10-6 record
that year, and the same thing could happen to the Saints, Falcons or Panthers
this year; or all three could make the playoffs.
Drew Brees is quietly having another
MVP-caliber season and he has the New Orleans Saints right where they need to
be in a tough NFC South.
Los Angeles Chargers 7-7 (-7) @ New York Jets 5-9 (42.5): Chargers 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife
Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons:
The Chargers defense is no joke and the Jets offense is one, so considering Los
Angeles has to win or they’re out of the playoffs it’s a pretty safe bet the
Chargers take care of business. However, there’s that little matter of Los
Angeles traveling to New York to play a game at what seems like 9AM to them, but
I imagine Phillip Rivers will bounce back from one of his worst outings of the
season and keep the Chargers alive.
Denver Broncos 5-9 (+3.5) @ Washington Football Team
6-8 (40.5):
Washington 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx
Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Cloudy;
mid-40s)
Reasons:
The Broncos have a nice little two-game winning streak going, but it’s too
little too late for Denver. It’s over for Washington, too, and the interesting
thing will be what Washington does with Kirk Cousins, who will likely eclipse
4,000 yards passing (although that number
is inflated in the modern NFL), and could end up with 30 passing TDs and
probably a 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio. That’s pretty good, but what has it really done for Washington? Attrition
aside, once again Cousins contract status will dominate the off-season and by
the end of all of it Washington might end up paying him more than they would
have for a three-year contract three years ago. Denver has a lot to think
about, too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-10 (+10) @ Carolina Panthers 10-4 (46.5):
Panthers 24-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Bank of
America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Cloudy; low 50s)
Reasons:
What an awful year for Tampa Bay. A team with high hopes heading into the
season, the Buccaneers faced adversity right out of the gate with Hurricane
Irma postponing their first game, which erased the team’s bye week, and then
things just worse from there. From PED suspensions, to conduct suspensions, to
Jameis Winston being benched at times, to serious injuries 2017 was not the
Buccaneers year (place political joke
here). The Panthers have dealt
with their own adversity all year, too, but have channeled that adversity into
another potentially long playoff run.
Jacksonville Jaguars 10-4 (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers 4-10
(42):
Jaguars 27-20
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons:
The 49ers have won two straight games, and three of their last four, and newly
acquired quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is 5-0 in the NFL as a starter, but I
still don’t understand how Jacksonville is only favored by four points. I
suppose being on the road and playing a transcontinental game is good for four
points, but that’s about where it ends, because I’d expect the Jaguars to be
favored by at least a touchdown. Both teams may be hot, but only the Jaguars have
the top defense in the NFL and a top-five offense that scores nearly 27 ppg, and
the Jaguars just beat the only team that has beaten San Francisco in the last
month (Seattle).
Dallas Cowboys fans have waited a long
time for these two to be back on the field together and it comes just in time
for a playoff run…if they get in.
Seattle Seahawks 8-6 (+5) @ Dallas Cowboys 8-6 (47.5): Cowboys 24-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Ezekiel Elliot
is back and just in time to face a Seahawks defense that is suddenly
vulnerable, having given up an average of 36 ppg over their past two games,
although Seattle faced two of the best offenses in the NFL (LAR; JAX) in that stretch and have been
dealing with serious injuries. Still, it’s hard to think Elliot isn’t going to
come out of the gate roaring, and the statistics backing Dak Prescott’s
improved play with Elliot in the backfield are well documented. It’s hard to
believe both teams were potential Super Bowl contenders at the start of the
season (Elliot’s suspension being an
obvious obstacle), and now neither team has any room for error, as a loss
would eliminate either from playoff contention. You know what the NFL stands for,
right? Not For Long.
New York Giants 2-12 (+3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 6-8
(40):
Cardinals 21-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Giants could
theoretically end up tied for the worst record in the NFL. That’s quite a fall
from 11-5 last year, especially considering the Giants only got better on paper
heading into this season, if not by additions certainly by the previous years
experience. Such was not the case and New York’s fall seemed to come from atop
the Empire State Building. The Cardinals season wasn’t much better as they lost
their star running back David Johnson early in the year and then lost
quarterback Carson Palmer for the season about midway through.
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3 (-9.5) @ Houston Texans 4-10 (45): Steelers 27-20
Christmas, 4:30 PM, NRG
Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Unless the Steelers
are still pining over their loss to the New England Patriots last week by 4:30 Christmas
Day, which I wouldn’t be surprised to hear, the Texans have no shot. Even
without Antonio Brown the Steelers have so many weapons on offense, and the defense,
although shaky since the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier, only has one weapon
to worry about on the Texans side: DeAndre Hopkins. Houston is another team
that had high hopes heading into the 2017 season, but attrition took away their
best players, and here we are.
Oakland Raiders 6-8 (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles 12-2
(47.5):
Eagles 28-21
Christmas, 8:30 PM, Lincoln
Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Sunny; high 30s)
Reasons: How could we
mention disappointing seasons without mentioning the Raiders? The team everyone
thought might challenge the New England Patriots in the AFC won’t even make the
playoffs. What’s worse is Oakland’s offense, stacked from the offensive line to
the wide outs, has averaged a measly 20 ppg this season. It’s been the opposite
kind of season for the Eagles, who lost their star quarterback to a season-ending
knee injury and haven’t seemed to have skip a beat. The Eagles look to wrap up
the No. 1 seed in the NFC on Christmas, and I don’t think the Raiders pose much
of a threat to that. Merry Christmas, Eagles fans.
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 16 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday.
*Minus two weeks due to technical difficulties
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