2017
NFL SEASON
Week 15: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Week
14 results: 8-8 wins (season*: 114-67; .630); 5-11 v. spread (season*: 85-94-2;
.470)
Remember this guy? Neither do Indianapolis Colts fans.
Denver Broncos 4-9 (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-10
(41):
Broncos 20-17
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Lucas Oil
Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: I bet either of
these teams would love to have Peyton Manning back, but he’s too busy making
hundreds of terrible Nationwideรข
commercials with Brad Paisley. We’ve been blessed with great Thursday Night
football games this season, after years of torment, but it seems our luck may
have run out this Thursday as the disapointing Broncos head to Lucas Oil
Stadium to face the dreadful Colts. The Broncos at least lead the NFL in yards
allowed (281 ypg) and have
recognizable players like DeMarius Thomas and Two Chainz; the Colts are
statistically the worst team in the NFL and their most recognizable player has
been secretly hidden away all season in an attempt to fool Colts fans into
thinking he’d be back any day. Nope, this game is going to be awful, featuring
two teams that combine for 33.9 ppg and have two of the worst point
differentials in the NFL. The Colts only chance is the Broncos have the
second-worst turnover ration in the league, but the Colts are so banged up it
wouldn’t matter anyway.
Chicago Bears 4-9 (+5) @ Detroit Lions 7-6 (44): Lions 24-20
Chicago Bears 4-9 (+5) @ Detroit Lions 7-6 (44): Lions 24-20
Saturday, 4:30 PM, Ford
Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Lions are a
mediocre to good team offensively, ranking as high as 5th in points
scored (26 ppg), and that has mostly
to do with Matt Stafford (3683 passing
yards; 23 TDs; 9 INTs) and wide receivers Marvin Jones and Golden Tate. The
problem for the Lions Saturday is the Bears are only good at two things: defending
the pass (9th) and sacking
the quarterback (9th). Chicago
rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season and
the Lions are an awful defensive unit, but Trubisky still struggles. Josh
Howard has already eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the season, and the Bears
will rely heavily upon him, but Stafford is hard to beat at home, right? Wrong,
the Lions are 2-4 this season. It’s not Stafford’s fault, he averages 302
passing yards per home loss.
Los Angeles Chargers 7-6 (-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-6 (46): Chargers 23-21
Los Angeles Chargers 7-6 (-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-6 (46): Chargers 23-21
Saturday, 8:25 PM, Arrowhead
Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Chance
rain; high 40s)
Reasons: I can’t get
over the fact these two teams were 0-4 and 4-0, respectively, through a quarter
of the season. The Chiefs were the league world-beaters and the Chargers were
squandering immense talent and one of Phillip Rivers’ last chances at a Super
Bowl title. Then a funny thing happened: The NFL. Kansas City was once
top-ten in everything, but they remain so in yards per play (2nd), turnover ratio (5th), yards gained (6th) and points scored (6th), despite dropping six of
their past eight games. Los Angeles has become the top-ten in everything team,
ranking so in points against (2nd),
turnover ratio (3rd), pass
defense (3rd), yards
gained (5th), sacks (5th), yards per play (6th) and yards allowed (10th). About the only thing
the Chargers are still bad at is stopping the run (29th), which could play right into rookie 1,000-yard
rusher Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs hands. That being said, the Chiefs rank
toward the bottom of the league in pass defense and sacks, which could play
right into the hands of the red-hot Rivers (3611
passing yards; 23 TDs; 7 INTs). The weather, Saturday night and Arrowhead
could be a problem, but the Chargers are just too hot right now.
Miami Dolphins 6-7 (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bills 7-6 (38.5): Bills 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Field, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Reasons: Both teams are
still alive in the AFC and the Dolphins are coming off their best win of the
season, beating New England 27-20, but Buffalo could be down to their
third-string quarterback (TJ Yates). Miami will think they’re feeling themselves after a big win, but will be
struggling to feel their fingers in the Buffalo cold.
He's baaaaaaaaaaaack....
Green Bay Packers 7-6 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 9-4 (47): Panthers
24-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons:
Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone after missing seven
weeks, but I’m not so sure this was the right game to come back to. The
Panthers rank in the top-ten defensively in run defense (4th), yards allowed (5th),
pass defense (7th) and
points allowed (10th), but
the thing Rodgers should be most concerned with is Carolina’s pass rush (3rd in sacks). The Packers
need to win every game going forward or they have no shot at making the
playoffs, which is why Rodgers steps into the fire right away.
Baltimore Ravens 7-6 (-7) @ Cleveland Browns 0-13 (40): Ravens 23-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 50% rain; low 40s)
Reasons:
The Ravens are a top-ten team offensively (9th,
24.5 ppg) and defensively (4th,
18.9 ppg), and numbers don’t lie, but they clearly don’t tell the whole
story, otherwise the Ravens wouldn’t be 7-6. The Browns are one of the worst
teams in the NFL in both of those metrics, but their numbers definitely tell
the whole story because they’re 0-13. The curse of Art Modell is apparently still
in full effect, if only Josh Gordon could do something about that.
Houston Texans 4-9 (+11) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4
(39):
Jaguars 28-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Jaguars have
proven themselves enough to warrant little explanation as to why they’ll wax
the Texans Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-8 (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 10-3
(42):
Vikings 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Cloudy; freezing)
Reasons: The Bengals are
the opposite of the Baltimore Ravens in the context that it’s hard to explain
why the Ravens only have seven wins in light of their statistical prowess; the
Bengals are statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL, yet they have five
wins. The Vikings have 10, and with Carson Wentz’s injury Sunday and the Eagles
win over the Rams in said game, the Vikings are well aware of their opportunity.
Drew Brees will be looking to get the New Orleans back on track Sunday against the New York Jets.
New York Jets 5-8 (+15.5) @ New Orleans Saints 9-4
(47.5):
Saints 30-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints have
had a rough month (2-2) after winning
seven straight games, that four-game stretch beginning with an overtime win versus Washington and
ended with a close 20-17 loss at Atlanta last Thursday night. Regardless, the
Saints remain one of the best team in the NFL, with the league’s top offense (401 ypg) and a defense just out of the
top-ten. The Jets are becoming the team most of us expected, and with the
Saints trying to keep pace in the NFC, it might not be a very good week for New York.
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 30s)
Reasons: The Eagles begin
life with Carson Wentz Sunday, but I’m in the minority of people that don’t
think Philadelphia falls off much without Wentz. MVP numbers and athleticism
aside, Nick Foles possesses a strong arm, a knowledge of the offense and has
played at a high level in the past. Besides, the Eagles aren’t just are
top-three offense, they’re a top-five defense, too. It may be Wentz-lyvania,
but the Eagles are the most well rounded team in the NFC, maybe even the NFL, save the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Giants are none of those things.
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: These teams are
very evenly matched in that they both rank in the bottom 25-50% of the league
in every worthy statistical metric, save the Cardinals ability to stop offenses
from gaining chunks of yardage (8th
yards allowed). This game basically comes down to Arizona playing at 9
AM on the other side of the country.
Los Angeles Rams 9-4 (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 8-5
(47.5):
Seahawks 28-27
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Rain; low 40s)
Reasons: The poor Rams.
After losing a close game to the best team in the conference, and maybe even the
NFL, they have to pick right up and travel to Seattle to face the division
rival Seahawks. Luckily for Los Angeles the Seahawks are hurting on defense to
put it mildly. Still, this is a tough stretch for the young Rams, and I’m not
sure they’re mature enough to put the close loss to the Eagles behind them
within a week and then travel to one of the NFC’s other best teams and beat
them, especially with Russell Wilson leading that team. As for the fans, we luck
out again as the Rams are featured in one of the best games of the season for
the second week in a row.
The New England Patriots play the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday for what could be home field advantage through out the playoffs.
New England Patriots 10-3 (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 11-2
(53.5):
Patriots 31-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Rain/snow; low 40s)
Reasons: There’s so much
that could be said about this game, specifically about the gaudy statistics
both offenses and defenses have put up, despite New England’s propensity to
give up tons of yards on both the ground and in the air. Truth be told, Tom
Brady and the Patriots have owned the Steelers, both home and away, for several
years now; Tom Brady’s entire career, in fact. That combined with Ryan Shazier’s
absence, which changes the dynamic of a Pittsburgh defense that was ranked in
the top-ten against the pass and run, and sacked the quarterback more than
anyone besides Jacksonville, makes Sunday’s match up against New England a much tougher task.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear; low 40s)
Reasons: The 49ers are
3-1 in their last four games, and if you’re paying attention that means all
three of San Francisco’s wins have come in the past four weeks. I’m sure it has
nothing to do with the arrival of one Jimmy G, lord and savior of the San
Francisco 49ers. Garoppolo is 2-0 as the 49ers starter, but you might even call
it 2.5-0 because he accounted for more than half the points the 49ers scored
against Seattle on only two pass attempts. The Titans like to beat up on really
bad teams, but I’m not so sure the 49ers qualify as a really bad team anymore;
I believe in Jimmy G that much.
Dallas Cowboys 7-6 (-3) @ Oakland Raiders 6-7
(46):
Cowboys 27-23
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Clear; low 40s)
Reasons: The Cowboys are
under some serious pressure to maintain until Ezekiel Elliot returns, but they
have a chance to keep pace against this historical rival in Oakland, because, quite simply,
the Cowboys are just the better team. The Raiders have underperformed all
season, due in part to attrition, but more due to locker room strife, Marshawn
Lynch being slightly less than Beast Mode, and a defense that continues to
struggle, despite Khalil Mack. The Cowboys are a good road team (4-2) and they need to win, so the stage
is set.
Atlanta Falcons 8-5 (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-9
(48.5):
Falcons 24-20
Monday, 8:30 PM, Raymond
James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather:
Cloudy; high 60s)
Reasons: The Falcons have
been inconsistent all season, but they seem to have locked in after winning
five of their past seven games; the two losses came to Carolina and Minnesota,
two of the best defenses in the NFL. During that stretch the Falcons have
suddenly become a top-ten team in yards gained (9th), points allowed (9th), yards allowed (7th),
yards per play (3rd) and
are the leagues most efficient team on 3rd down. Considering the
Falcons still possess many of the weapons that made them the top offense in the
NFL last season, Atlanta isn’t a team anyone wants to face right now, even
at home, as the Falcons are 4-2 on the road.
Stay
tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 15 #NFL Game Reviews coming
Wednesday.
*minus two weeks due to technical
difficulties
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