2017 NFL SEASON
Week
14: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis)
Week
13 results: 12-4 wins (season: 106-59; .642); 9-7 v. spread (season: 80-83-2;
.485)
Julio Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the
NFL, but his inconsistent play has been a microcosm of the Atlanta Falcons
season.
Thursday, 8:25 PM,
Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints survived
a divisional showdown with the Carolina Panthers last week to claim sole possession
of the NFC South, and despite the Falcons hot hand (Atlanta had won three straight before a Week 13 lose 10-2 Minnesota),
I don’t see Drew Brees relinquishing that lead considering how tight the NFC
South is and how tight the NFC playoff race is in general. The Falcons have won
and lost in chunks this season, and have played eight games decided by six or
fewer points (4-4), which basically
means the only thing Atlanta is good at is keeping us guessing. The Falcons don’t
give up many yards (8th yards
allowed), but their defense stays on the field a long time, which plays
right into the hands of the Saints (6th
in time of possession), which also just happens to be one of the three best
offenses in the NFL (2nd yards
gained; 3rd points scored), not to mention the most dynamic (Alvin Kamara) and most explosive (1st yards per play).
Indianapolis Colts 3-9 (+3) @ Buffalo Bills 6-6 (39.5): Bills 21-17
Seattle Seahawks 8-4 (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 8-4 (40): Jaguars 21-20
Baltimore Ravens 7-5 (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 10-2 (43.5): Steelers 23-20
New England Patriots 10-2 (-11) @ Miami Dolphins 5-7 (47.5): Patriots 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Snow; low 30s)
Reasons: Both teams come
into Sunday 1-4 in their last five games, but at least the Bills have the
excuse of having played the Saints, Chargers and Patriots. The Bills used to
have one the top defenses in the league, but the Colts were good once, so the
past means nothing. Regardless, the Bills are still alive and the Colts are
aiming for a top draft pick. The Bills playoff hopes are riding on Nate
Peterman., though, so...
Chicago Bears 3-9 (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-7
(38.5):
Bengals 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-30s)
Reasons: It’s funny that
in a week when nearly every game has playoff implications we get this stinker.
The Bears and Bengals are almost identically terrible at possessing the ball, 3rd-down
efficiency, and gaining yards or stopping their opponents from gaining yards.
The Bengals are coming off a short week after a brutal battle with the
Steelers, so I wouldn’t expect much out of them, even against the hapless
Bears.
Oakland Raiders 6-6 (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-6 (48.5):
Chiefs 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)
Reasons: The last time
these two teams played they were miles apart in the standings; then the Chiefs
gifted the game to the Raiders after committing several penalties in the Red
Zone and end zone to give Oakland myriad undeserved chances to win, which they
eventually did 31-30, and Kansas City began their pre-humous tribute to Tom Petty (Free Fallin' for all you slower folks) . Fast-forward seven weeks and everyone is locked up at
6-6, the Raiders are treading water and the Chiefs are falling apart. This
should be interesting.
Things are getting ugly in Kansas City, and it doesn't get any prettier versus the Raiders Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Dallas Cowboys 6-6 (-3.5) @ New York Giants 2-10
(41.5):
Cowboys 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 30s)
Reasons: I think Eli
Manning is starting this game. How big of a shit show have the New York Giants become?
In other news, did you hear about Derek Jeter pulling the biggest heist in
Major League Baseball history? Fear not New York, you’re relevant once again.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons:
Matthew Stafford is questionable, which means if he doesn’t play, the Lions can
basically kiss this game goodbye. Not because the Buccaneers are any good, but
because the Lions without Stafford are like the Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers.
Minnesota Vikings 10-2 (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers 8-4 (40):
Vikings 23-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons:
The Vikings getting the three points the Panthers should be getting at home
tells you everything you need to know about people’s confidence in Minnesota
relative to Carolina. Both teams come into Sunday with top-ten defenses, the
Vikings ranking 2nd in points and yards allowed, and each team chews
up the clock, which means the game could come down to a few throws, and believe
it or not, the smart money says you’d probably rather have Case Keenum make
those throws, at least this season.
Green Bay Packers 6-6 (-3) @ Cleveland Browns 0-12 (39.5): Packers 23-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Snow; low 30s)
Reasons:
The Packers will be right at home in the snow, and despite their Aaron
Rodgers-less woes, Green Bay has developed quite a nice little running game,
which will also play well in the weather. Imagine a Packers team without Aaron
Rodgers being favored on the road by three points? That’s how bad the Browns
are. Word on the street is they’re looking for a quarterback in this year's draft. “The wheels on
the bus go ‘round and ‘round…”
Patience, Packers fans, patience.
San Francisco 49ers 2-10
(+2.5) @ Houston Texans 4-8 (45): Texans 24-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The 49ers come into the game with their shiny new toy, but unfortunately for the
Texans their own new toy is on the shelf for the rest of the season and beyond. Such
has made for rather boring and sad seasons, respectively. Perhaps the Texans
are still alive mathematically, but both of these teams are looking towards the
draft at this point.
New York Jets 5-7 (-1) @ Denver Broncos 3-9 (41.5): Jets 20-17
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather:
Clear; low 50s)
Reasons:
The Jets are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive when they face the
Broncos on the road Sunday. You have to read that a few times and then Google it
so see if it’s even true, then scratch your head at the reality.
Tennessee Titans 8-4 (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals 5-7
(46.5):
Titans 24-20
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
It’s hard to believe that during the Titans 4-1 stretch following their bye
week that Marcus Mariota (10 TDs; 12 INTs)
would be the worst part of it. Luckily for Tennessee they have two of the best
running backs in the league in DeMarco Murray and Derrick
Henry. The Cardinals aren’t so lucky, and haven’t been all season, as Arizona
will now be without Adrian Peterson for the game. I’m not buying Mariota throwing
the ball on this Cardinals secondary, so I suppose it comes down to that Titans
one-two punch.
Washington Football Team 5-7
(+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers 6-6
(46.5):
Chargers 27-23
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather:
Sunny; low 80s)
Reasons:
The Chargers are 6-2 in their last eight games, after starting the season 0-4,
and those two losses came to the 10-2 Patriots and the 8-4 Jaguars, two of the
top teams in the NFL. The Chargers are firing on all cylinders, finally, with an
offense to match their top-ten defense. Washington is an interesting team; they
scored 3o and 31 points against two of the best defenses in the NFL (MIN; NO), respectively, yet only managed to score half
of that total against two of the worst defenses in the NFL (NYG;DAL). Washington is capable of
beating anyone on any given day, but that won’t be the Chargers Sunday.
It's number one versus number two, and that has meaning on many levels, as the Philadelphia Eagles fly to Los Angeles to face the Rams.
Philadelphia Eagles 10-2 (+1) @ Los
Angeles Rams 9-3 (48): Rams 27-24
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Reasons:
You can’t script this stuff. The two top picks in the 2016 draft are leading
the two best teams in the NFC in a battle that might decide the conference’s
top seed. Philadelphia and Los Angeles are so evenly matched that they’re tied
as the league's top scoring offense (30.1 ppg)
and have the 6th and 7th-ranked scoring defenses,
respectively. The Eagles also have the largest point differential in the
league; guess who’s second? Buckle up.
Seattle Seahawks 8-4 (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 8-4 (40): Jaguars 21-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: Russell Wilson
has single-handedly kept the Seahawks offense from being a laughingstock, and
he’s done it largely running for his life. It’s about to get a whole lot worse Sunday,
as the Jaguars come into the game with the league’s top defense and their
specialty is getting after the quarterback. The problem is the Seahawks are no
slouches on defense themselves, and the Jaguars are led by Blake Bortles,
literally the opposite of Russell Wilson. It’s time for the Jaguars to show us
they’re for real.
Baltimore Ravens 7-5 (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 10-2 (43.5): Steelers 23-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Cloudy; mid-20s)
Reasons:
I’m not sure I can handle another AFC North game right now after what we
witnessed Monday night.
New England Patriots 10-2 (-11) @ Miami Dolphins 5-7 (47.5): Patriots 27-17
Monday, 8:30 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Clear; mid-50s)
Reasons:
There’s a lot of controversy surrounding the Patriots this week, which means
Belichick circled the wagons and got to business during the workweek,
especially with planning to play without Rob Gronkowski, suspended for his
dirty hit on Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White. We’re all well aware of the
Patriots abilities (3rd points scored; 8th points allowed), but you might not know the Dolphins are statistically one of the worst
teams in the league, despite their 5-7 record. These late season
AFC East road games have been tough for the Patriots, historically, but I don’t
see any issues here. Tom Brady takes his media frustration out on the Dolphins,
so long as they keep Cameron Wake away from him.
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 14 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday.
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