Tuesday’s Gone:
Week 15 #NFL Game Reviews
2017
NFL SEASON
Week 15: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Week
15 results: 14-2 wins (season*: 128-69; .650); 6-8-2 v. spread (season*: 91-102-4;
.475)
Denver Broncos 4-9 (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-10 (41): Broncos 20-17 Broncos 25-13
Thursday, 8:25 PM,
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: I bet
either of these teams would love to have Peyton Manning back, but he’s too busy
making hundreds of terrible Nationwide commercials with Brad Paisley. We’ve
been blessed with great Thursday Night football games this season, after years
of torment, but it seems our luck may have run out this Thursday as the disappointing
Broncos head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the dreadful Colts. The Broncos at
least lead the NFL in yards allowed (281
ypg) and have recognizable players like DeMarius Thomas and Two Chainz; the
Colts are statistically the worst team in the NFL and their most recognizable
player has been secretly hidden away all season in an attempt to fool Colts
fans into thinking he’d be back any day. Nope, this game is going to be awful,
featuring two teams that combine for 33.9 ppg and have two of the worst point
differentials in the NFL. The Colts only chance is the Broncos have the
second-worst turnover ration in the league, but the Colts are so banged up it
wouldn’t matter anyway.
I
can’t believe I’m typing this, but the Colts led 10-0 before Brock Osweiler
went on a tear, accounting for three TDs (1 rushing; 2 passing), two of which went
unanswered, as the Broncos took control of the game and ultimately won 25-13.
CJ Anderson (30 carries for 158 rushing yards) helped set the tone for a
Broncos team that hasn’t had much to be happy about in 2017.
Chicago
Bears 4-9 (+5)
@ Detroit Lions 7-6 (44): Lions 24-20 Lions 20-10
Saturday, 4:30 PM,
Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Lions
are a mediocre to good team offensively, ranking as high as 5th in
points scored (26 ppg), and that has
mostly to do with Matt Stafford (3683
passing yards; 23 TDs; 9 INTs) and wide receivers Marvin Jones and Golden
Tate. The problem for the Lions Saturday is the Bears are only good at two
things: defending the pass (9th)
and sacking the quarterback (9th).
Chicago rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky is coming off his best game of the
season and the Lions are an awful defensive unit, but Trubisky still struggles.
Josh Howard has already eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the season, and the
Bears will rely heavily upon him, but Stafford is hard to beat at home, right?
Wrong, the Lions are 2-4 this season. It’s not Stafford’s fault, he averages
302 passing yards per home loss.
The
Lions led by as much as 20-3 until a few minutes remained in the game, and the
Detroit defense forced three INTs from rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky on
their way to making easy work of the Bears. Matt Stafford (2 TDs) once again
led the Lions to victory, one that extends their playoff chances.
Los Angeles
Chargers 7-6 (-1)
@ Kansas City Chiefs 7-6 (46): Chargers 23-21 Chiefs 30-13
Saturday, 8:25 PM,
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather:
Chance rain; high 40s)
Reasons: I can’t get over the fact these two teams
were 0-4 and 4-0, respectively, through a quarter of the season. The Chiefs
were the league world-beaters and the Chargers were squandering immense talent
and one of Phillip Rivers’ last chances at a Super Bowl title. Then a funny
thing happened: The NFL. Kansas City was once top-ten in everything, but
they remain so in yards per play (2nd),
turnover ratio (5th),
yards gained (6th) and
points scored (6th),
despite dropping six of their past eight games. Los Angeles has become the
top-ten in everything team, ranking so in points against (2nd), turnover ratio (3rd), pass defense (3rd),
yards gained (5th), sacks (5th), yards per play (6th) and yards allowed (10th). About the only thing
the Chargers are still bad at is stopping the run (29th), which could play right into rookie 1,000-yard
rusher Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs hands. That being said, the Chiefs rank
toward the bottom of the league in pass defense and sacks, which could play
right into the hands of the red-hot Rivers (3611
passing yards; 23 TDs; 7 INTs). The weather, Saturday night and Arrowhead
could be a problem, but the Chargers are just too hot right now.
It figures that I mentioned how the
script had flipped for these two teams heading into this game, only to have
both teams revert back to the original script. Phillip Rivers (3 INTs) was
awful Saturday night, the Arrowhead crowd having a lot to do with it, and
rookie sensation Kareem Hunt returned to form, rushing for 155 yards and a
touchdown.
Miami Dolphins 6-7 (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bills 7-6 (38.5): Bills 21-20 Bills
24-16
Sunday, 1:00
PM, New Era Field, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Cloudy; high 30s)
Reasons: Both teams
are still alive in the AFC and the Dolphins are coming off their best win of
the season, beating New England 27-20, but Buffalo could be down to their
third-string quarterback (TJ Yates).
Miami will think they’re feeling themselves after a big win, but will be
struggling to feel their fingers in the Buffalo cold.
Right
on time the man from Santa Claus, Indiana came to Buffalo and delivered three
gifts in the form of interceptions and helped the Bills keep their playoff
hopes alive.
Green Bay Packers 7-6 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 9-4 (47): Panthers 24-20 Panthers
31-24
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: Aaron
Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone after missing seven weeks, but
I’m not so sure this was the right game to come back to. The Panthers rank in
the top-ten defensively in run defense (4th),
yards allowed (5th), pass
defense (7th) and points
allowed (10th), but the
thing Rodgers should be most concerned with is Carolina’s pass rush (3rd in sacks). The Packers
need to win every game going forward or they have no shot at making the
playoffs, which is why Rodgers steps into the fire right away.
Aaron
Rodgers return came with mix reviews. Rodgers threw three TDs, but he also
threw three INTs, his first such game since 2009. Still, Rodgers got the Packers
within a touchdown and had them in a good position to tie before Green Bay
fumbled the chance and ultimately the game. Cam Newton (4 TDs) was electric and
seems to be getting into MVP mode as the playoffs near.
Baltimore Ravens 7-6 (-7) @ Cleveland Browns 0-13 (40): Ravens 23-17 Ravens
27-10
Sunday, 1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
50% rain; low 40s)
Reasons: The Ravens
are a top-ten team offensively (9th,
24.5 ppg) and defensively (4th,
18.9 ppg), and numbers don’t lie, but they clearly don’t tell the whole
story, otherwise the Ravens wouldn’t be 7-6. The Browns are one of the worst
teams in the NFL in both of those metrics, but their numbers definitely tell
the whole story because they’re 0-13. The curse of Art Modell is apparently
still in full effect, if only Josh Gordon could do something about that.
The
Browns came within a score as the 3rd quarter expired, despite
turning the ball over four times (2 DeShone Kizer INTs; 2 fumbles), but the
Ravens scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter, aided by a
Brandon Williams 1-yard fumble return, to turn the box score into a blowout.
Houston Texans 4-9 (+11) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (39): Jaguars 28-20 Jaguars 45-7
Sunday, 1:00
PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather:
Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Jaguars
have proven themselves enough to warrant little explanation as to why they’ll
wax the Texans Sunday.
If
Jalen Ramsey hadn’t tripped covering DeAndre Hopkins this might have been a
45-0 shut out. The Jaguars held the Texans to 186 total yards and outgained
Houston in first downs 25-9, while sacking TJ Yates four times and forcing an INT
on their way to routing the Texans. Keelan Cole (186 receiving yards 1 TD) had
a breakout game with a little help from Blake Bortles (3 TDs), who Jadeveon
Clowney still considers “trash”.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-8 (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 10-3 (42): Vikings 24-17 Vikings 34-7
Sunday, 1:00
PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather:
Cloudy; freezing)
Reasons: The Bengals
are the opposite of the Baltimore Ravens in the context that it’s hard to
explain why the Ravens only have seven wins in light of their statistical
prowess; the Bengals are statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL, yet
they have five wins. The Vikings have 10, and with Carson Wentz’s injury Sunday
and the Eagles win over the Rams in said game, the Vikings are well aware of
their opportunity.
The
Cincinnati Bengals are a disappointing bunch. Perhaps the news of Marvin Lewis’
impeding post-season departure was enough to get the Bengals off of their
mental game. I’m being facetious; the Bengals are terrible and the Vikings are
arguably the best team in the NFC. The Bengals didn’t score until 6:22 left in
the 4th quarter, and the Vikings defense held the Bengals to 189
total yards and eight first downs. Case Keenum (20-23 passing for 236 yards; 2
TDs) was masterful, and Teddy Bridgewater threw an INT on his only pass attempt
coming in for Keenum in a lopsided win, so there’s that.
New York Jets 5-8 (+15.5) @ New Orleans Saints 9-4 (47.5): Saints 30-21 Saints 31-19
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints
have had a rough month (2-2) after
winning seven straight games, that four-game stretch beginning with an overtime
win versus Washington and ended with a close 20-17 loss at Atlanta last
Thursday night. Regardless, the Saints remain one of the best team in the NFL,
with the league’s top offense (401 ypg)
and a defense just out of the top-ten. The Jets are becoming the team most of
us expected, and with the Saints trying to keep pace in the NFC, it might not
be a very good week for New York.
Any
spread over ten points begins to get a little ridiculous, but a 15.5-point
spread is almost downright disrespectful, especially considering the Jets have
five wins in 13 games. The Jets aren’t winless like the Browns, and the Saints
have struggled lately after looking like one of the best teams in the NFC for
most of the season. So instead of winning by a ridiculous 15+-point margin, they
won by a measly 12, although seven of those points came on a Mark Ingram touchdown
(74 rushing yards; 2 TDs) on the Saints last possession as New Orleans tried to
run the clock out.
Philadelphia Eagles 11-2 (-7.5) @ New York Giants 2-11 (40): Eagles 27-17 Eagles 34-29
Sunday, 1:00
PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; high 30s)
Reasons: The Eagles
begin life with Carson Wentz Sunday, but I’m in the minority of people that don’t
think Philadelphia falls off much without Wentz. MVP numbers and athleticism
aside, Nick Foles possesses a strong arm, a knowledge of the offense and has
played at a high level in the past. Besides, the Eagles aren’t just are
top-three offense, they’re a top-five defense, too. It may be Wentz-lyvania,
but the Eagles are the most well rounded team in the NFC, maybe even the NFL,
save the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Giants are none of those things.
Eli
Manning threw for a season-high 434 yards and three TDs, including a 57-yard
touchdown pass to Tavarres King to bring the Giants within two points (31-29)
towards the end of the 3rd quarter, but Manning’s only interception,
and the Giants only turnover, led to a Philadelphia touchdown, the difference
in the game, and one of four thrown by Nick Foles on the day.
Arizona Cardinals 6-7 (+4.5) @ Washington Football Team 5-8 (43): Washington 24-23 Washington 20-15
Sunday, 1:00
PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: These teams
are very evenly matched in that they both rank in the bottom 25-50% of the
league in every worthy statistical metric, save the Cardinals ability to stop
offenses from gaining chunks of yardage (8th
yards allowed). This game basically comes down to Arizona playing at 9 AM
on the other side of the country.
Phil
Dawson (5 FGs) could’ve beat Kirk Cousins (2 TDs) one-on-one, but Dawson was no
match for the combination of Cousins and Dustin Hopkins (2 FGs). What an awful
game this was.
Los Angeles Rams 9-4 (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 8-5 (47.5): Seahawks 28-27
Sunday, 4:05
PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Rain; low 40s)
Reasons: The poor
Rams. After losing a close game to the best team in the conference, and maybe
even the NFL, they have to pick right up and travel to Seattle to face the
division rival Seahawks. Luckily for Los Angeles the Seahawks are hurting on
defense to put it mildly. Still, this is a tough stretch for the young Rams,
and I’m not sure they’re mature enough to put the close loss to the Eagles
behind them within a week and then travel to one of the NFC’s other best teams
and beat them, especially with Russell Wilson leading that team. As for the
fans, we luck out again as the Rams are featured in one of the best games of
the season for the second week in a row.
I
clearly didn’t take the attrition on defense, and the Seahawks and Russell
Wilson’s abysmal history against the Rams into account, especially considering
those previous Rams teams weren’t even good. These Rams are, and showed us all they’re
one of the teams to beat in the NFC going forward as they had the Seahawks dropped
out of the sky by halftime.
New England Patriots 10-3 (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 11-2 (53.5): Patriots 31-27 Patriots 27-24
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Rain/snow; low 40s)
Reasons: There’s so
much that could be said about this game, specifically about the gaudy
statistics both offenses and defenses have put up, despite New England’s
propensity to give up tons of yards on both the ground and in the air. Truth be
told, Tom Brady and the Patriots have owned the Steelers, both home and away,
for several years now; Tom Brady’s entire career, in fact. That combined with
Ryan Shazier’s absence, which changes the dynamic of a Pittsburgh defense that
was ranked in the top-ten against the pass and run, and sacked the quarterback
more than anyone besides Jacksonville, makes Sunday’s match up against New
England a much tougher task.
This
game was the classic we’ve been anticipating all year, although no one
anticipated Antonio Brown tearing his calf muscle. I’m sure many anticipated a controversial
call that might affect the game, but the timing and type of call was certainly the
major turning point, and literally decided the game. Regardless of your team
affiliations, the call on the field was correct, and the Patriots managed to
take advantage of a mental mistake by Ben Roethlisberger, or more accurately, a
terrible audible, and intercepted the game-winning touchdown pass meant for the
end zone, escaping with the win.
Tennessee Titans 8-5 (+2) @ San Francisco 49ers 3-10 (44.5): 49ers 21-20 49ers 25-23
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clear; low 40s)
Reasons: The 49ers
are 3-1 in their last four games, and if you’re paying attention that means all
three of San Francisco’s wins have come in the past four weeks. I’m sure it has
nothing to do with the arrival of one Jimmy G, lord and savior of the San
Francisco 49ers. Garoppolo is 2-0 as the 49ers starter, but you might even call
it 2.5-0 because he accounted for more than half the points the 49ers scored
against Seattle on only two pass attempts. The Titans like to beat up on really
bad teams, but I’m not so sure the 49ers qualify as a really bad team anymore;
I believe in Jimmy G that much.
Say
it with me: Jimmy Garoppolo is 5-0 as a starter. He’s undefeated as quarterback
of two NFL teams, and is undefeated in two conferences. Garoppolo completed 31
of 43 passes for 381 passing yards and a touchdown, but his most impressive
plays were driving the 49ers down the field to put San Francisco in a position
to kick the game-winning field goal. Critics could point to Garoppolo’s last
three drives only producing enough yards for the 49ers to kick field goals of 50,
48 and 45 yards, but that would be nitpicking a rookie. The Titans continue to
mess up any progress they’ve achieved and look to be squandering Marcus Mariota’s
prime years.
Dallas Cowboys 7-6 (-3) @ Oakland Raiders 6-7 (46): Cowboys 27-23 Cowboys
20-17
Sunday, 8:30
PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather:
Clear; low 40s)
Reasons: The Cowboys
are under some serious pressure to maintain until Ezekiel Elliot returns, but
they have a chance to keep pace against this historical rival in Oakland,
because, quite simply, the Cowboys are just the better team. The Raiders have
underperformed all season, due in part to attrition, but more due to locker
room strife, Marshawn Lynch being slightly less than Beast Mode, and a defense
that continues to struggle, despite Khalil Mack. The Cowboys are a good road
team (4-2) and they need to win, so
the stage is set.
The
Raiders were the victims of terrible officiating this time, instead of benefitting
wildly from several ridiculous calls in the end zone to steal a win like they
did against Kansas City, which set up the game-winning field goal for Dallas to
steal a win in Oakland. The Cowboys were awarded a first down via folded index
card, in which the final spot was still challenged by several Raiders players;
the first down set up the game-winning field goal, even though, technically,
the Cowboys might not have actually gained a first down on the play. To
complicate matters the officials removed Michael Crabtree from the final play
of the game due to the concussion protocol, something many Raiders described as
being overly cautious, if not outright strange. Let’s not even mention Derek
Carr fumbling the ball out of the end zone on their final attempt to win the
game. I suppose it wouldn’t be a Cowboys game without some controversy, which
Dallas seems to thrive on.
Atlanta Falcons 8-5 (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-9 (48.5): Falcons 24-20 Falcons 24-21
Monday, 8:30 PM,
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather:
Cloudy; high 60s)
Reasons: The Falcons
have been inconsistent all season, but they seem to have locked in after
winning five of their past seven games; the two losses came to Carolina and
Minnesota, two of the best defenses in the NFL. During that stretch the Falcons
have suddenly become a top-ten team in yards gained (9th), points allowed (9th), yards allowed (7th),
yards per play (3rd) and
are the leagues most efficient team on 3rd down. Considering the
Falcons still possess many of the weapons that made them the top offense in the
NFL last season, Atlanta isn’t a team anyone wants to face right now, even at
home, as the Falcons are 4-2 on the road.
Jameis
Winston had one of his best games of the season (299 passing yards; 3 TDs), but
it wasn’t enough to overcome Davante Freeman (126 rushing yards; 1 TD) or the
Falcons defense (fumble return for TD), which was ultimately the difference in
the game. Winston’s touchdown pass to Adam Humphries with just over four
minutes remaining in the game brought the Buccaneers within three points, but
the 2nd quarter, which provided the fumble return for a touchdown and
a 57-yard field goal by Matt Bryant, proved to be the deciding quarter.
Stay tuned for Week 16: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming
Saturday morning.
*minus two weeks due to technical difficulties
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