Tuesday’s Gone:
Week 14 #NFL Game Reviews
2017
NFL SEASON
Week 14:
#NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week
14 results: 8-8 wins (season*: 114-67; .630); 5-11 v. spread (season*: 85-94-2;
.470)
New Orleans
Saints 9-3 (-1.5)
@ Atlanta Falcons 7-5 (53.5): Saints 27-24 Falcons 20-17
Thursday, 8:25 PM,
Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints
survived a divisional showdown with the Carolina Panthers last week to claim
sole possession of the NFC South, and despite the Falcons hot hand (Atlanta had won three straight before a Week
13 lose 10-2 Minnesota), I don’t see Drew Brees relinquishing that
lead considering how tight the NFC South is and how tight the NFC playoff race
is in general. The Falcons have won and lost in chunks this season, and
have played eight games decided by six or fewer points (4-4), which basically means the only thing Atlanta is good at is
keeping us guessing. The Falcons don’t give up many yards (8th yards allowed), but their defense stays on the field
a long time, which plays right into the hands of the Saints (6th in time of possession),
which also just happens to be one of the three best offenses in the NFL (2nd yards gained; 3rd
points scored), not to mention the most dynamic (Alvin Kamara) and most explosive (1st yards per play).
The
Saints held a 17-10 lead until nearly halfway through the 4th quarter
before the Falcons scored 10 unanswered points between the 10- and 4-minute marks
of the 4th quarter to make it a 20-17 game for a Drew Brees (26-35 passing for 271 yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT)
special 2-minute drill for the win. Such did not happen as Brees was
intercepted by Deion Jones, and despite Matt Ryan’s (15-27 passing for
221 yards; 1 TD) three interceptions, the Falcons squeaked
out a win and stayed with the Saints and Panthers in the NFC South.
Indianapolis
Colts 3-9 (+3)
@ Buffalo Bills 6-6 (39.5): Bills 21-17 Bills 13-7
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Snow; low 30s)
Reasons: Both teams
come into Sunday 1-4 in their last five games, but at least the Bills have the
excuse of having played the Saints, Chargers and Patriots. The Bills used to have one the
top defenses in the league, but the Colts were good once, so the past means
nothing. Regardless, the Bills are still alive and the Colts are aiming
for a top draft pick. The Bills playoff hopes are riding on Nate Peterman.,
though, so...
This
was one of the coolest games I’ve ever seen. The snow fell at rates of a few
inches per hour, and at one point there was over 6” of snow on the field. Nate Peterman
threw a touchdown pass to Kelvin Benjamin in a game with no offense as the
first half expired to go up 7-0 (Peterman was injured in the game, which whites
out any hopes of the Bills making noise in the playoffs if they end up making
it), but the game was decided in the final 1:33 and overtime. The Colts scored on
a 3-yard Jacoby Brissett toss to tight end Jack Doyle, with 1:33 remaining,
only to have the two-point conversion called back on a penalty. The Colts had
no choice other than to kick the extra point, so Snow God Adam Vinatieri
punched in the nearly 30-yard kick to tie the game 7-7. The Bills were
subsequently intercepted, giving Vinatieri the chance to be the hero again; it
didn’t happen and the game went to overtime. That’s when the other Snow God LeSean
McCoy (156 rushing yards on 32 carries), the king of blizzard conditions, scampered
21 yards for the game-winning touchdown.
Chicago
Bears 3-9 (+6.5)
@ Cincinnati Bengals 5-7 (38.5): Bengals 21-20 Bears 33-7
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-30s)
Reasons: It’s funny
that in a week when nearly every game has playoff implications we get this
stinker. The Bears and Bengals are almost identically terrible at
possessing the ball, 3rd-down efficiency, and gaining yards or
stopping their opponents from gaining yards. The Bengals are coming off a short
week after a brutal battle with the Steelers, so I wouldn’t expect much out of
them, even against the hapless Bears.
The
Bengals clearly hadn’t recovered mentally from that Monday Night game against the
Steelers, because the Bears came in and whooped the Bengals, as the Chicago offense
and rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky (25-32 passing for 271 yards; 1 TD) had their
best games of the season. That doesn’t bode well for a Cincinnati team that was
barely hanging on to the string wound by their defense. The Bears possessed the
ball for nearly 39 minutes and the defense forced two Bengals turnovers, as the
Bengals kissed another season goodbye. Don’t worry, Marvin Lewis will be back.
He’ll always be back.
Oakland
Raiders 6-6 (+4)
@ Kansas City Chiefs 6-6 (48.5): Chiefs 24-21 Chiefs 26-15
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)
Reasons: The last
time these two teams played they were miles apart in the standings; then the
Chiefs gifted the game to the Raiders after committing several penalties in the
Red Zone and end zone to give Oakland myriad undeserved chances to win, which
they eventually did 31-30, and Kansas City began their pre-humous tribute to
Tom Petty (Free Fallin' for all you
slower folks). Fast-forward seven weeks and everyone is locked up at 6-6, the
Raiders are treading water and the Chiefs are falling apart. This
should be interesting.
The
Chiefs held the ball for nearly 37 minutes, outgained the Raiders by 140 yards,
forced three Oakland turnovers and shut them out 26-0 until Marshawn Lynch
scored on a 22-yard run with just under nine minutes remaining and began the
Raiders late campaign to make a blowout not look like one.
Dallas
Cowboys 6-6 (-3.5)
@ New York Giants 2-10 (41.5): Cowboys 24-17 Cowboys 30-10
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 30s)
Reasons: I think Eli
Manning is starting this game. How big of a shit show have the New York
Giants become? In other news, did you hear about Derek Jeter pulling
the biggest heist in Major League Baseball history? Fear not New York, you’re
relevant once again.
Eli
Manning was starting again; the Giants wore their old school uniforms and the home
crowd roared on their champion quarterback. Then the fans, and Eli alike,
returned to Earth and Manning (2 INTs) returned to his mediocre self as the
Cowboys went to MetLife Stadium and secured an important, although relatively
easy, divisional road win. Dak Prescott (20-30 passing for 332 yards; 3 TDs)
returned to form, Sean Lee didn’t leave the game hurt, and despite the quality
backup play, Ezekiel Elliot’s return is on the horizon. The Cowboys are fast
becoming a team the NFC doesn’t want to face.
Detroit Lions 6-6 (-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-8 (43.5): Lions 24-23 Lions 24-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: Matthew
Stafford is questionable, which means if he doesn’t play, the Lions can
basically kiss this game goodbye. Not because the Buccaneers are any good, but
because the Lions without Stafford are like the Green Bay Packers without Aaron
Rodgers.
Well,
Matt Stafford played, but he threw two interceptions; he also set up the
game-winning field goal to keep the Lions alive in the NFC. This was a pretty
ugly game, which despite featuring 834 combined yards and 49 combined first
downs, also featured eight combined turnovers (DET: 3; TB: 5).
Minnesota
Vikings 10-2 (-2.5)
@ Carolina Panthers 8-4 (40): Vikings 23-20 Panthers 31-24
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons: The Vikings
getting the three points the Panthers should be getting at home tells you
everything you need to know about people’s confidence in Minnesota relative to
Carolina. Both teams come into Sunday with top-ten defenses, the Vikings
ranking 2nd in points and yards allowed, and each team chews up the
clock, which means the game could come down to a few throws, and believe it or
not, the smart money says you’d probably rather have Case Keenum make those
throws, at least this season.
The
Panthers have to be the most interesting teams in the NFL. Only Carolina would lean
on their defense most of the season, but give up 24 points, just to have
Jonathan Stewart (3 TDs) run all over one of the best run defenses in the NFL
to help secure the late season win over arguably the best team in the NFC at
home, where they’d only been 3-2 up to that point.
Green Bay
Packers 6-6 (-3)
@ Cleveland Browns 0-12 (39.5): Packers 23-21 Packers 27-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Snow; low 30s)
Reasons: The Packers
will be right at home in the snow, and despite their Aaron Rodgers-less woes,
Green Bay has developed quite a nice little running game, which will also play
well in the weather. Imagine a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers
being favored on the road by three points? That’s how bad the Browns
are. Word on the street is they’re looking for a quarterback in this year's
draft. “The wheels on the bus go ‘round and ‘round…”
This
one really has to hurt. The Browns were home, rookie DeShone Kizer (20-28 passing
for 214 yards; 3 TDs; 1 INT) had played perhaps his best game of the season,
Josh Gordon looked great and the defense had held the packers to seven points
through three quarters. Then it was as if the ghost of Aaron Rodgers impending
return arose and performed an early holiday miracle, as Green Bay scored 20
unanswered points in the 4th quarter and overtime, including two
Brett Hundley to Davante Adams connections, to steal the win from the still
winless Browns.
San
Francisco 49ers 2-10 (+2.5) @ Houston Texans 4-8 (45): Texans 24-21 49ers
26-16
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The 49ers
come into the game with their shiny new toy, but unfortunately for the Texans
their own new toy is on the shelf for the rest of the season and beyond. Such
has made for rather boring and sad seasons, respectively. Perhaps the Texans
are still alive mathematically, but both of these teams are looking towards
the draft at this point.
DeAndre
Hopkins is so nice he stole the show in a loss. Hopkins gained 146 yards and scored
the Texans only two TDs on 11 catches, but it wasn’t enough to beat Jimmy Garoppolo
(20-33 passing for 334 yards; 1 TD; 1 INT), who threw for a career high as he
led the 49ers to their second straight win.
New York
Jets 5-7 (-1)
@ Denver Broncos 3-9 (41.5): Jets 20-17 Broncos 23-0
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather:
Clear; low 50s)
Reasons: The Jets
are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive when they face the Broncos
on the road Sunday. You have to read that a few times and then Google it so see
if it’s even true, then scratch your head at the reality.
Just
when you start having faith in the New York Jets, or none in the Denver
Broncos, the betting gods laugh and give you something like we saw in Denver
Sunday. Truth be told, I was hesitant to pick the Jets on the road, and
considering I can’t pick a score that reflects the spread, I decided three
points was nice and pretty; however, I almost picked the Broncos several times
before posting the article. What I didn’t expect at all was the Jets offense to
collapse, which wasn’t just shut out, but only gained 100 total yards and six
first downs. Jeez, this wasn’t even the snow game.
Tennessee
Titans 8-4 (-3)
@ Arizona Cardinals 5-7 (46.5): Titans 24-20 Cardinals 12-7
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: It’s hard
to believe that during the Titans 4-1 stretch following their bye week that
Marcus Mariota (10 TDs; 12 INTs)
would be the worst part of it. Luckily for Tennessee they have two of the
best running backs in the league in DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.
The Cardinals aren’t so lucky, and haven’t been all season, as Arizona will now
be without Adrian Peterson for the game. I’m not buying Mariota throwing the
ball on this Cardinals secondary, so I suppose it comes down to that Titans
one-two punch.
The
Titans offense was so bad Sunday that four second half Phil Dawson field goals
was enough for the Cardinals to beat them. Both teams were terrible, gaining a
combined 465 total yards, but Marcus Mariota (16-31 passing for 159 yards; 2
INTs) was atrocious. It has become clear the Titans don’t possess consistency
or the quarterback play to challenge other playoff teams from the AFC, so Tennessee
needs to do something other than remain in the AFC South, because power running
backs don’t stay fresh for years.
Washington
Football Team 5-7 (+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers 6-6 (46.5): Chargers 27-23 Chargers 30-13
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather:
Sunny; low 80s)
Reasons: The
Chargers are 6-2 in their last eight games, after starting the season 0-4, and
those two losses came to the 10-2 Patriots and the 8-4 Jaguars, two of the top
teams in the NFL. The Chargers are firing on all cylinders, finally, with an
offense to match their top-ten defense. Washington is an interesting team; they
scored 3o and 31 points against two of the best defenses in the NFL (MIN; NO), respectively, yet only managed
to score half of that total against two of the worst defenses in the NFL (NYG;DAL). Washington is capable of
beating anyone on any given day, but that won’t be the Chargers Sunday.
The
Chargers remained hot Sunday scoring 30 points, largely on the arm of Phillip
Rivers (18-31 passing for 319 yards; 2 TDs), while holding Washington to 201
total yards while forcing a Kirk Cousins interception.
Philadelphia Eagles 10-2 (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams 9-3 (48): Rams 27-24 Eagles
43-35
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Reasons: You can’t
script this stuff. The two top picks in the 2016 draft are leading the two best teams in
the NFC in a battle that might decide the conference’s top seed.
Philadelphia and Los Angeles are so evenly matched that they’re tied as the
league's top scoring offense (30.1 ppg)
and have the 6th and 7th-ranked scoring defenses,
respectively. The Eagles also have the largest point differential in the
league; guess who’s second? Buckle up.
Take
the Brandon Graham fumble return from the desperation lateral chaos away and
what we have here is a situation in which the Eagles won the battle 37-35, but
may have lost the war considering they lost their MVP-candidate quarterback in
Carson Wentz (23-41 passing for 291 yards; 4 TDs; 1 TD) for the season to a
knee injury. Philadelphia possessed the ball nearly twice as long (39+ minutes)
and the Rams turned the ball over twice, yet the Eagles essentially won by
kicking two unanswered field goals to go up 37-35 after the Rams took the lead
on a Todd Gurley (13 carries for 96 yards; 2 TDs) touchdown run early in the 4th
quarter. This game didn’t disappoint, and it’s likely we could have a rematch
in the playoffs, although, unfortunately, that game won’t feature Wentz
Seattle
Seahawks 8-4 (+2.5)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 8-4 (40): Jaguars 21-20 Jaguars 30-24
Sunday,
4:25 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather:
Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: Russell
Wilson has single-handedly kept the Seahawks offense from being a
laughingstock, and he’s done it largely running for his life. It’s about to get
a whole lot worse Sunday, as the Jaguars come into the game with the
league’s top defense and their specialty is getting after the quarterback.
The problem is the Seahawks are no slouches on defense themselves, and the
Jaguars are led by Blake Bortles, literally the opposite of Russell Wilson. It’s
time for the Jaguars to show us they’re for real.
The
Jaguars led 27-10 deep into the 4th quarter, but then MVP Flavor of
the Week Russell Wilson turned a nightmare game (3 INT) into what was almost a
game by throwing two of his three touchdown passes in the 4th quarter
to make it a 30-24 headline barnburner, which in reality was a domination by
the new kid on the block. The Jaguars crowd proved they weren’t ready for the
new role, however, as Jacksonville fans threw drinks at Quinton Jefferson as he
was escorted off of the field, ejected for an on-field fight that led to no
suspensions, and sparked the player-fan interaction debate once again. Here’s
what I know: You’re not throwing those drinks at Jefferson in a face-to-face
situation.
Baltimore
Ravens 7-5 (+4.5)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 10-2 (43.5): Steelers 23-20 Steelers 39-38
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Cloudy; mid-20s)
Reasons: I’m not
sure I can handle another AFC North game right now after what we
witnessed Monday night.
Ben
Roethlisberger threw for 506 yards, the third time Roethlisberger has thrown
for 500+ yards in his career (no other NFL quarterback has more than one), on
his way to setting up 10 unanswered 4th quarter points, leading the
Steelers to a comeback win over the rival Ravens. A divisional game usually known
for big hits and little offense, and for a game that just happened to feature
two of the top defenses in the NFL, you’d never know it; the two teams combined,
relatively evenly, for 77 points, 958 total yards and 57 first downs. Baltimore
led by as much as 38-29 with less than seven minutes remaining in the game
before Roethlisberger and the Steelers willed the spirit of Ryan Shazier and
snatched the victory from the Ravens at home.
New England
Patriots 10-2 (-11)
@ Miami Dolphins 5-7 (47.5): Patriots 27-17 Dolphins 27-20
Monday,
8:30 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
Clear; mid-50s)
Reasons: There’s a
lot of controversy surrounding the Patriots this week, which means Belichick
circled the wagons and got to business during the workweek, especially with
planning to play without Rob Gronkowski, suspended for his dirty hit on Bills
cornerback Tre’Davious White. We’re all well aware of the Patriots abilities (3rd points scored; 8th points allowed),
but you might not know the Dolphins are statistically one of the worst teams in
the league, despite their 5-7 record. These late season AFC East road games have
been tough for the Patriots, historically, but I don’t see any issues
here. Tom Brady takes his media frustration out on the Dolphins, so long as
they keep Cameron Wake away from him.
Two
parts of those last two sentences were true, but unfortunately for Tom Brady
and the Patriots, it was the “late AFC East road games have been tough” and the
“So long as they keep Cameron Wake away from him” part. New England led at one
point, but it was early, and it was only 7-6. Besides that the Dolphins
dominated, save for a 4th quarter desperation 10-point outburst by
the Patriots to make the score look respectable. Brady threw two interceptions
and was sacked twice and hit six times as he was under pressure most of the
night.
Stay
tuned for Week 15 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis) coming Thursday and Sunday mornings.
*minus two weeks due to technical
difficulties
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