Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
6 Los Angeles Rams 10-6 (+7) @ 1 Green Bay Packers 13-3 (46.5): Packers 24-21
Saturday, 4:35 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 40% snow; low 30s)
Keys: This is a classic playoff game between arguably the best defense in the NFL v. arguably the best offense in the NFL. The game will also feature snow, which the Rams certainly aren’t used to. Los Angeles also happens to be the only team left in the playoffs with a negative TO differential (22nd w/ -3). However, the Packers will be missing All-World tackle David Bakhtiari (as well as potential reserves due to covid) against the scariest defense in the NFL because of two words: Aaron. Donald. The Rams expected points from defense is 107.58, which is more than 3x the next closest team. In other words, the Rams not only stop you, but they get to you and score off of you. Don’t be fooled by the TO differential, that’s Jared “Tiny Hands” Goff’s fault. The Packers respectable defense should be able to both force and handle the Rams 10th ranked run game (GB 7th v. pass; 8th RZ efficiency; 13th v, run), which puts the impetus squarely on the shoulders of the Rams top-ranked defense, which also happens to be 2nd in sacks (53). Normally this wouldn’t faze the Packers, who allowed the 3rd least sacks in the league (21), but again, that was with their all-Pro tackle. I’m not sure the Rams have the offensive power to score much on the Packers in the snow, but Los Angeles defense is so good they’ll slow down Green Bay enough to cover the seven points.
5 Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (+3) @ 2 Buffalo Bills 13-3 (49.5): Ravens 27-24
Saturday, 8:15 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 40% snow; low 30s)
Keys: The Bills are going to have a hard time containing Lamar Jackson and the “rest” of the Ravens offense, and they might have more trouble then they’re used to scoring on the Ravens defense. The only major defensive statistic the Ravens don’t crack the top-10 are sacks (14th) and RZ efficiency (18th). Obviously those are glaring flaws against the NFL’s 2nd ranked scoring offense and 3rd ranked passing offense, but with a limited run game (17th) the Ravens can force the Bills one-dimensional and use their 8th ranked run defense to keep Josh Allen in check, while their 7th ranked pass defense keeps everything in front of them. The snow won’t be an issue because the Ravens are the NFL’s top running game; the snow might actually effect the Bills passing game more. Both teams are similar in TO differential, which means the game will essentially come down to these two teams squaring off, and the Ravens are simply built better to do this, especially this time of year. Sorry Bills Mafia, but the Ravens take advantage of their collective playoff experience and the weather and chew up the clock on their way to a Divisional Round victory as the Bills circle the wagons for next year and a serious run at the Super Bowl. Ahhhh, stop spraying me with mustard!!!
6 Cleveland Browns 11-5 (+10) @ 1 Kansas City Chiefs 14-2 (54): Chiefs 35-30
Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 30s)
Keys: Here’s the game everyone expects to be a blow out, especially overconfident Chiefs fans, who seem to forget this Chiefs team is far less imposing then the 2019 Chiefs team, and despite the 14-2 record, stacked underwhelming win after underwhelming win. The layoff for Kansas City is going to be a problem, especially against a hyper-emotional Browns team, but Cleveland is still reeling from their covid issues last week, and despite their 48-37 win in Wild Card Weekend, it should be noted they were outscored 37-20 after the 1Q. Of course that’s a young, emotional team letting their foot off the gas, but any team prone to that could fail miserably against these Chiefs. Kansas City’s issues became obvious towards the end – the defense simply wasn’t as good as they seemed on paper, other than a shiny points allowed metric (10th), and the Chiefs chocked in the Red Zone consistently (14th). One could argue that’s because the Chiefs don’t even need the Red Zone, but these are the playoffs. The Browns 9th ranked run game will try to pound the Chiefs 21st ranked run defense to death and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, but the Chiefs can produce so many points on so few plays in such little time will that even matter? I doubt the Browns win this game, but the long rest and the fact these Chiefs simply aren’t as dominant as people think they are means the Browns have an excellent chance at covering.
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (+3.5) @ 2 New Orleans Saints 12-4 (49): Buccaneers 28-27
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tom Brady has never lost to the same team twice in the regular season in his 20-year career until this year when he lost twice to these Saints. In fact, until this year Brady had only lost to the same team twice two times in twenty years, which obviously includes the playoffs (NJY 2010; DEN 2015, one game in OT). So what? So Tom Brady is not losing to the same team three times in the same year, especially if said game is in the way of Brady getting to his 10th Super Bowl. The interesting thing about this game is, despite the game featuring two (old) future HoF QBs that are literally battling each other as we speak for all-time passing records, it’s actually these two team’s defenses that have got them to this point. Both teams rank in the top-10 in scoring and total defense, sacks, run defense and TO differential. Both teams are also top-5 scoring offense, too, as well as top-7 in RZ efficiency, not to mention they’re two of the better ranking teams in the league in sacks allowed and 3rd down efficiency. In other words, these NFC South rivals are pretty evenly matched up and down the board. In fact, 0.1 ppg separates these two offenses and 1.1 ppg separates these two defenses. It doesn’t get much closer than that. This game comes down to the Buccaneers stopping the Saints run game and forcing Drew Brees to throw some ducks. The same can be said for the Saints, who will try to rattle Brady early and get him off his trademark game. Both are great possibilities, but at the end of the day the Buccaneers have more weapons on offense and I simply can’t see this alien named TB12 losing to the same team three times in one season.
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