2020 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
6 Los Angeles Rams 10-6 (+7) @ 1 Green Bay Packers 13-3 (46.5): Packers 24-21 Packers 32-18
Saturday, 4:35 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 40% snow; low 30s)
Keys: This is a classic playoff game between arguably the best defense in the NFL v. arguably the best offense in the NFL. The game will also feature snow, which the Rams certainly aren’t used to. Los Angeles also happens to be the only team left in the playoffs with a negative TO differential (22nd w/ -3). However, the Packers will be missing All-World tackle David Bakhtiari (as well as potential reserves due to covid) against the scariest defense in the NFL because of two words: Aaron. Donald. The Rams expected points from defense is 107.58, which is more than 3x the next closest team. In other words, the Rams not only stop you, but they get to you and score off of you. Don’t be fooled by the TO differential, that’s Jared “Tiny Hands” Goff’s fault. The Packers respectable defense should be able to both force and handle the Rams 10th ranked run game (GB 7th v. pass; 8th RZ efficiency; 13th v, run), which puts the impetus squarely on the shoulders of the Rams top-ranked defense, which also happens to be 2nd in sacks (53). Normally this wouldn’t faze the Packers, who allowed the 3rd least sacks in the league (21), but again, that was with their all-Pro tackle. I’m not sure the Rams have the offensive power to score much on the Packers in the snow, but Los Angeles defense is so good they’ll slow down Green Bay enough to cover the seven points.
What excuse do you want to hear first, the Aaron Donald reaggravating a rib injury and only playing in 53% of the snaps excuse, the Rams offense not scoring despite three possessions after their final score excuse, or the defense giving up a crucial score in the mid-4th quarter, which combined to essentially account for two seven-point swings towards the end of the game, turning a possible cover and more likely push into loss excuse? None of them? I didn't think so. Donald did aggravate the injury, which made a an excellent Packers offensive line's job all the easier, despite missing Bakhtiari. The Packers ran the Rams into the ground (36 CAR; 188 YDS; 2 TDs) and the Rams couldn't move the ball at all (244 TOT YDS; 4.9 ypp), let alone score on the Packers defense in half the TOP (GB 36:12 to 23:48 LAR). What a terrible time to waste one of Jared Goff's most efficient game (21-27 passing). Los Angeles didn't record a sack against Green Bay and the rest is history. Did I mention Aaron Donald was hurt for half the game?
5 Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (+3) @ 2 Buffalo Bills 13-3 (49.5): Ravens 27-24 Bills 17-3
Saturday, 8:15 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 40% snow; low 30s)
Keys: The Bills are going to have a hard time containing Lamar Jackson and the “rest” of the Ravens offense, and they might have more trouble then they’re used to scoring on the Ravens defense. The only major defensive statistic the Ravens don’t crack the top-10 are sacks (14th) and RZ efficiency (18th). Obviously those are glaring flaws against the NFL’s 2nd ranked scoring offense and 3rd ranked passing offense, but with a limited run game (17th) the Ravens can force the Bills one-dimensional and use their 8th ranked run defense to keep Josh Allen in check, while their 7th ranked pass defense keeps everything in front of them. The snow won’t be an issue because the Ravens are the NFL’s top running game; the snow might actually effect the Bills passing game more. Both teams are similar in TO differential, which means the game will essentially come down to these two teams squaring off, and the Ravens are simply built better to do this, especially this time of year. Sorry Bills Mafia, but the Ravens take advantage of their collective playoff experience and the weather and chew up the clock on their way to a Divisional Round victory as the Bills circle the wagons for next year and a serious run at the Super Bowl. Ahhhh, stop spraying me with mustard!!!
The Ravens defense played as good a game as they could've hoped for, holding the mighty Bills offense to 220 total yards (4.0 ypp), with Josh Allen accounting for 85% of those yards in the air (206 passing yards minus the 18 yards lost to two Allen sacks), as the Bills only managed 32 yards on the ground v. Baltimore (2.0 ypc). Unfortunately, it was a classic bad game for Lamar Jackson (196 TOT YDS), who not only had a crucial turnover that swung the game wildly, but Jackson was also injured (concussed) and couldn't finish the game. That's not a knock on Jackson at all, it's just a testament to the Hardenesque usage rates Jackson has to endure in the Baltimore offense. Hats off to the Buffalo defense, which forced five fumbles (0 REC), recorded a pick-six, and sacked the Ravens QBs four times (Jackson: 3; Tyler Huntley: 1) while holding the Ravens to 4.7 ypp. Wait until Bills Mafia realizes they may not have to face Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship. Get your burgers out, Pinot Ron.
6 Cleveland Browns 11-5 (+10) @ 1 Kansas City Chiefs 14-2 (54): Chiefs 35-30 Chiefs 22-17
Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 30s)
Keys: Here’s the game everyone expects to be a blow out, especially overconfident Chiefs fans, who seem to forget this Chiefs team is far less imposing then the 2019 Chiefs team, and despite the 14-2 record, stacked underwhelming win after underwhelming win. The layoff for Kansas City is going to be a problem, especially against a hyper-emotional Browns team, but Cleveland is still reeling from their covid issues last week, and despite their 48-37 win in Wild Card Weekend, it should be noted they were outscored 37-20 after the 1Q. Of course that’s a young, emotional team letting their foot off the gas, but any team prone to that could fail miserably against these Chiefs. Kansas City’s issues became obvious towards the end – the defense simply wasn’t as good as they seemed on paper, other than a shiny points allowed metric (10th), and the Chiefs chocked in the Red Zone consistently (14th). One could argue that’s because the Chiefs don’t even need the Red Zone, but these are the playoffs. The Browns 9th ranked run game will try to pound the Chiefs 21st ranked run defense to death and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, but the Chiefs can produce so many points on so few plays in such little time will that even matter? I doubt the Browns win this game, but the long rest and the fact these Chiefs simply aren’t as dominant as people think they are means the Browns have an excellent chance at covering.
This game was brutal for both teams. The Browns were the victims of a terrible non-call that could've rectified a Cleveland touchback after Rashard Higgins fumbled out of the end zone. Had the officials realized Daniel Sorenson led with his helmet the Browns would've had a first down within two yards of the end zone and likely scored. The Browns came close after Patrick Mahomes left with a horrible looking concussion, and Cleveland will always wonder what could've been with consistent officiating, but mediocre days on the ground (Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt: 19 CAR; 101 YDs; 1 TD) and in the air (Baker Mayfield: 204 passing yards; 1 TD; 1 INT) won't beat the Kansas City Chiefs, even without Mahomes (67% passing for 255 yards; 2 TDs), evidently. The Chiefs might've won won the battle, but they may lose the war after losing Mahomes to a concussion that could keep him out of the AFC Championship against the Buffalo Bills.
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (+3.5) @ 2 New Orleans Saints 12-4 (49): Buccaneers 28-27 Buccaneers 30-20
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tom Brady has never lost to the same team twice in the regular season in his 20-year career until this year when he lost twice to these Saints. In fact, until this year Brady had only lost to the same team twice two times in twenty years, which obviously includes the playoffs (NJY 2010; DEN 2015, one game in OT). So what? So Tom Brady is not losing to the same team three times in the same year, especially if said game is in the way of Brady getting to his 10th Super Bowl. The interesting thing about this game is, despite the game featuring two (old) future HoF QBs that are literally battling each other as we speak for all-time passing records, it’s actually these two team’s defenses that have got them to this point. Both teams rank in the top-10 in scoring and total defense, sacks, run defense and TO differential. Both teams are also top-5 scoring offense, too, as well as top-7 in RZ efficiency, not to mention they’re two of the better ranking teams in the league in sacks allowed and 3rd down efficiency. In other words, these NFC South rivals are pretty evenly matched up and down the board. In fact, 0.1 ppg separates these two offenses and 1.1 ppg separates these two defenses. It doesn’t get much closer than that. This game comes down to the Buccaneers stopping the Saints run game and forcing Drew Brees to throw some ducks. The same can be said for the Saints, who will try to rattle Brady early and get him off his trademark game. Both are great possibilities, but at the end of the day the Buccaneers have more weapons on offense and I simply can’t see this alien named TB12 losing to the same team three times in one season.
If this was Drew Brees' last game it was not a memorable one. It wasn't exactly one for Tom Brady, either, as both QBs completed only around 55% of their passes and neither hit 200 passing yards. Brady threw 2 TDs, however, and Brees threw three INTs, and that was the game in a nutshell (NO had four TOT TOs). Brady suffered the only sack of the game so he'll be healthy and ready for what could shape up to be the most overhyped conference championship since the Peyton Manning v Brady days.
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