Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
7 Indianapolis Colts 11-5 (+6.5) @ 2 Buffalo Bills 13-3 (52.5): Bills 30-24
Saturday, 1:05 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; high 20s)
Keys: The Bills ended the 2020 regular season the 2nd ranked total (t-396.4 ypg w/ TEN) and scoring offense (31.3 ppg), reminiscent of the Bills teams from the early 90s that featured several HoF players. Things have been different in Buffalo since the acquisition of Stephon Diggs (127 REC/1535 YDS/8 TDs), but the Colts defense (8th overall & 10th scoring) may have some answers. By some I mean Indianapolis has a chance at covering, but that’s about it. The Colts vaunted defense is built to stop the run and force teams one-dimensional, which Buffalo doesn’t mind at all because they don’t really run the ball (17th attempts). Much of Buffalo’s success comes on the arm and legs of MVP-candidate Josh Allen (45 total TDs), and the Bills give up the 9th-fewest sacks in the NFL, not that the Colts are horrifying pass rushers anyway (12th). Fan capacity will be around 10% Saturday after New York gave the team permission to host fans during the corona virus outbreak, which is equivalent to about 50% capacity in most other stadiums, so between the new found home field advantage, the Bills electric offense, and Phillip Rivers history of botching playoff games (5-6 record; 14 TDs & 10 INTs) this is a wrap. 6.5 points is almost an insult to Indianapolis, though, because it’s not like the Colts are slouches, and at least, Rivers has a lot of playoff experience.
6 Los Angeles Rams 10-6 (+5) @ 3 Seattle Seahawks 12-4 (42): Seahawks 23-20
Saturday, 4:40 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Chance rain; mid-40s)
Keys: This game seems pretty simple to me. Despite any issues the Seahawks have had on either side of the ball this season, especially lately, and no matter how unbelievable the Rams defense (1st overall & scoring defense) is most of the time and Aaron Donald is all the time, you cannot tell me John Wolford is traveling to Seattle, fans or not, and beating Russell Wilson (42 total TDs) and the Seahawks (8th scoring offense). Sean McVay can keep us in the dark all week about who’s playing QB, I’m not sure it really matters at this point in this season. There is, however, the matter of the five points. Part of the Seahawks issues have been along the offensive line, and they ranked 5th in 2020 giving up 56 sacks; the Rams just happen to rank 2nd in the NFL with 53 sacks. That doesn’t tell me the Rams are getting blown out, even if they start a financial advisor at QB in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Speaking of QBs, how many teams would love to redo that 2016 QB draft?
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (-6.5) @ 4 Washington Football Team 7-9 (46.5): Buccaneer 27-9
Saturday, 8:15 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Clear; mid-30s)
Keys: Washington’s defense might look great on paper (2nd overall; 4th scoring), but they haven’t faced many offenses like the Buccaneers (3rd scoring; 7th overall). Although it’s true Washington’s front four (6th sacks) could cause Tom Brady problems, as could the night for the old man (1-3 late games in 2020), Washington’s offense is non-existent, and, well, the Buccaneers defense isn't (5th sacks; 6th overall; 8th scoring). In fact, they might be better than Washington considering the difference in competition (TB +0.29 SoS). The only question here is the O/U, because the Football Team might not score a single point.
5 Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (-4) @ 4 Tennessee Titans 11-5 (54.5): Ravens 31-28
Sunday, 1:05 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: Clearly the best game of the Wild Card Round, it doesn’t get much better than one of the best defenses in the league (2nd scoring & 7th overall) facing its best RB in Derrick Henry (2,027 yards; 17 TDs) on one of the best offenses in the league (4th overall & scoring). The Titans defense (19th v. run) will have their hands full with Lamar Jackson (26 passing TDs; 1,005 rushing yards; 9 rushing TDs), however, and a Ravens offense that hammers people to death (1st rushing). There’s no love lost between these teams, either, which makes the game all the sweeter. The bottom line is the Ravens are more dynamic on defense, score a ton of points (7th scoring offense), pound the ball offensively which chews up the clock (7th TOP), and have been through as much adversity this season as any team in the NFL. Combine that with the Ravens big-game experience and we have the recipe for a victory, but not necessarily a cover as the Titans will rely on their ball hawk skills (1st TO differential) and their 2nd-ranked run game to keep the game close.
7 Chicago Bears 8-8 (+9.5) @ 2 New Orleans Saints 12-4 (48): Saints 27-20
Sunday, 4:40 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If the BALvTEN game was clearly the best game of the week this is clearly the worst. The Bears made the playoffs on a % technicality and have the same chance of beating the Saints Sunday as Washington has beating Tampa Bay Saturday. None. Much like Washington, Chicago doesn’t have an offense to speak of (22nd scoring; 26th overall) while the Saints are one of the best all-around teams in the NFL (4th overall defense; 4th scoring defense; 4th scoring offense; t-3rd TO differential). The Bears do have a decent defense (11th overall), however, which against the 42-year old Drew Brees missing Alvin Kamara (covid), might be their only chance...at covering 9.5 points.
6 Cleveland Browns 11-5 (+3.5) @ 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (47): Steelers 27-23
Sunday, 8:15 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Calm; low 30s)
Keys: We just saw this game eight days ago, but a lot has happened since then. The Browns have lost their top offensive lineman, head coach and six other players to covid and the Steelers are playing all their All-World starters they benched Week 17. Gulp. We could analyze this game to death, but the bottom line is the Steelers lost four of five games to end the season and no one is more aware of that fact than Pittsburgh. Considering the last loss on that list featured the Steelers B-squad, the A-Team has had two weeks to rest, and the Browns are scrambling to deal with a covid situation that effected some of their key pieces at the worst possible time, the first playoff run in 18 years is going to be a quick one for the Cleveland Browns.
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