Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Miami
Dolphins 10-5
(+3)
@ Buffalo Bills 12-3
*(43):
Dolphins
24-23 Bills 56-26
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Clearing; low 30s)
Keys: The Dolphins need to win or have several other teams (e.g. BAL; IND) lose to get into the playoffs, while the Bills need a win and a Steelers loss to take over the 2nd seed in the AFC, which means less now than it has in 25 years since the playoff format went from 10 to 12 teams. Even if the Bills secured the 2nd seed they’d still have to play Wild Card Weekend, so it almost makes more sense to sit key players and rest up for next week’s playoff game. Besides, the Bills would probably rather face Miami again then the Baltimore Ravens or the Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo claims to be resting no starters, but I’ll believe that when I see it.
I've believed in Buffalo all year, but I clearly don't know the team. The Bills put their stamp on 2020 by doing their part to send the Dolphins home early while setting up a potential playoff team against a much better opponent, but it's not as if confidence is one of the Bills weak points. It was a record-setting and tying day for Josh Allen (3 TDs; 1 INT) and the Bills, who set a record for passing yards and matched their record of 13 wins (twice), respectively. The Bills defense (1 TD) seems to be coming around at the right time, too, and I'm not just talking about their three-INT performance against Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins came up short, thanks to Tagovailoa and a host of other AFC teams, but Miami has a bright future, and I'm not just talking about the blinding Sun.
Baltimore
Ravens 10-5
(-12)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 4-10-1
*(44):
Ravens
27-20 Ravens 38-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts, but they still need to win. I don’t know about those 12 points, because these Bengals have proven time and time again they’re no door mat, despite the record, and especially ATS, and what better way to end the 2020 season at home than, well, a cover against the mighty Ravens.
The Bengals I raved - no pun intended - about all season couldn't even get me a lousy seven points to hit the over, but Baltimore was clearly on a mission to do their part to get into the playoffs. The Ravens held the ball for over 40 minutes while holding the Bengals to under 200 totals yards and ten first downs. They also forced two Brandon Allen INTs and watched Lamar Jackson (3 TDs; 1 INT) become the first QB to rush for over 1,000 yards two seasons in a row. The Ravens are hot at the right time entering the playoffs and could make a serious run at Super Bowl LV, just like we all expected to before this shit show of a year took flight.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 12-3
*(+9)
@
Cleveland Browns 10-5
(42):
Browns
24-20 Browns 24-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: The Steelers are resting their two most important players on offense (Ben Roethlisberger; Maurkice Pouncey) and defense (TJ Watt; Cam Heyward), among others, which means the Browns have a great opportunity to slide into the playoffs with a win, especially with the tiebreaker over the Indianapolis Colts. These are the Browns, however, and they will mess it up somehow, right? They almost already did when they lost their entire starting WR corp because of covid protocols. What do expect from a group led emotionally by OBJ? The Steelers could lose the 2nd seed if they lose and the Buffalo Bills win, but the 2nd seed doesn’t mean what it used to. Based on the Steelers recent play with those aforementioned starters, and the Browns desperation, I’ll actually give Cleveland the benefit of the doubt here, but I doubt they cover and they could possibly even lose.
Nick Chubb (14 carries for 108 rushing yards; 1 TD) pounded a second-string Steelers defense and the Browns held off a late rally by the Steelers to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
Minnesota
Vikings 6-9
(-6.5)
@ Detroit Lions 5-10
(54):
Vikings
31-24 Vikings 37-35
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I’m in danger of ending the year below .500 ATS and on the O/U, which would be rare for the former and a first for the latter by about 5/100s of a percent. Sorry, I mean I’ve never been <55% on O/U calls. Such is life in a covid world I suppose, but I’m a prideful man, so when I see games like this meaningless one it makes me cringe they could contribute to my first sub-50% season. This game is actually simple: The Vikings are more talented, especially on offense, and they’re basically at home playing on turf in front of a small group of the other team’s fans. It's like any Sunday. Let’s put it this way: The Vikings have a QB in Kirk Cousins about to throw 4,000 yards and 35 TDs, a RB in Dalvin Cook about to average 100 rushing yards and a TD per game, and two WRs that could surpass 1,000 receiving yards while combining for over 20 TDs (Justin Jefferson: 1,267 yards & 7 TDs; Adam Thielen: 868 yards & 14 TDs). How is this team 6-9? On the other side the Lions are banged up and awful to begin with. Has any team in NFL history wasted more talent than the Detroit Lions? The answer is no.
This game did contribute to a break-even finale, but at least PFM didn't dip below 50% for the season. I also predicted the amount of TD passes Kirk Cousins (3) threw, but it was Alexander Mattison (95 rushing yards; 1 TD), not Dalvin Cook, who crushed the run game. Detroit actually entered the 4th quarter with the lead on the arm of Matt Stafford (3 passing TDs) and the legs of a running game (129 yards; 5.9 ypc; 2 TDs), but the Lions did Lions things and inevitably lost the game. Has Cousins (4 total TDs; 405 passing yard) earned his money yet?
New
York Jets 2-13
(+3)
@
New England Patriots 6-9
(39.5):
Patriots
24-20 Patriots 28-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Clearing; high 40s)
Keys: Can you hear that? Someone is playing taps. The Patriots will end their season with a losing record for the first time since Bill Belichick's first season with the team in 2000. The next season Mo Lewis murdered Drew Bledsoe and a weight-lifting, nightshade-eating human named Tom Brady came in and the rest is history. The Patriots only missed the playoffs twice in those 20 years, once as an 11-5 team led by Matt Cassell in 2008 due to Brady’s destroyed knee. Now we’re back to the beginning and the old foe Jets are licking their foolish lips. A once zero-win team on track for the top draft pick or the rights to dangle in front of other pathetic teams, the Jets and a desperate Adam Gase have won two straight and essentially won themselves out of that spot, which was filled up by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who need a QB more than anyone. Pride is always on the line and Bill hates the Jets, so look for New England to end the season on a high note while making the Jaguars sweat out the math in the horrible chance they mistakenly pull off the win against the Indianapolis Colts (JAX won’t on purpose and IND needs to win), although the Patriots best offensive player, Nick Folk, is questionable. This is a tough one, and could likely end in a push, but I believe in Bill. I also believe in the Patriots secondary shutting down a terrible Jets passing game with no running game to set up the play action.
The Patriots trailed 14-7 a third way through the 3rd quarter, but then Cam Newton caught a TD pass and then threw two more to send Adam Gase packing. Newton (242 passing yards) picked a fine time to throw 3 TD passes, catch a TD pass and lead the team in rushing (11 carries for 79 yards).
Dallas
Cowboys 6-9
(-1.5)
@ New York Giants 5-10
(44.5):
Cowboys
27-21 Giants 23-19
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clearing; high 40s)
Keys: Imagine a game featuring two teams that have combined for 11 wins on the entire season being as relevant as any game Week 17? How ridiculous. One of these teams is likely winning the NFC East because the Washington Football Team is on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles and just released their 2019 first round draft pick and future franchise QB. I’m not saying Dwayne Haskins was going to be the difference in their game, I’m just saying that’s a lot to process for a team in one week with the pressures of winning a division you could’ve wrapped up weeks ago. You might think I’m talking about the wrong game, but I’m not, because it’s all relative in this pathetic NFC East division. The Cowboys have found a groove offensively while the Giants ended their five-game winning streak rather unceremoniously, although against playoff-bound competition. The Giants are simply too banged up on offense to keep up with the Cowboys recent outburst and the football gods have obviously set this up to have these Cowboys actually make the playoffs after all the preseason hype knowing this Dallas team can’t do anything with a playoff run. Ahhh, the irony.
I didn't get either of the NFC East games correct, but other than White Flag Gate and the conspiracy theories Giants fans and the media came up with, who the hell cares?
Atlanta
Falcons 4-11
*(+7)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-5
(50.5):
Buccaneers
27-24 Buccaneers 44-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Buccaneers have secured a playoff birth and can’t win the NFC South, so their move to not rest any starters is a questionable one. The Falcons, on the other hand, have nothing to play for other than pride and their hatred for TB12. The Falcons will be missing key guys Sunday (Julio Jones; Alex Mack), but so will the Buccaneers among their vaunted defense (e.g. Shaq Barrett). The Falcons lost a close game to Tampa Bay Week 15, and I expect the exact same thing Sunday, but I wouldn't surprised at all by a Falcons victory.
Whatever, it was 30-27 midway through the 4th quarter.
Green
Bay Packers 12-3
(-5.5)
@ Chicago Bears 8-7
(45):
Packers
27-20 Packers 35-16
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: The Packers need a win to secure a bye in the NFC and the Bears need to win just to get into the playoffs as they hold the 8-7 cringe-worthy “best win % in common games” tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals. The Packers received a huge blow with the injury to tackle David Bakhtiari (ACL tear), who might be the best offensive lineman in the NFL, but the Bears could be without Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks (Q), which would essentially even things out. The Packers are far too explosive on offense for the Bears offense or defense, so assuming the Bakhtiari injury doesn’t destroy them up front, this should be an easy win for a Packers team that seems to need the bye at this point.
One of four sweeps in Week 17 for PFM, introducing the NFC's highest and lowest playoff seed.
Las
Vegas
Raiders 7-8
(-2.5)
@ Denver Broncos 5-10
(51):
Broncos
27-23 Raiders 32-31
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: Before the Von Miller injury I expected these two teams to finish right next to each other, but more so in the 9-10 win range and fighting for a that 7th playoff spot in the AFC. I don’t think anyone expected these teams to finish anywhere near each other as the season progressed, yet here they are, in position to finish a game within each other and both with losing records. The NFL is a cruel world and the Raiders schedule is apparently even more difficult in 2021. History is also not on the Raiders side here, as they’ve struggled the last decade to win their season finale, and have lost four finales to the Broncos in that span. PFM doesn’t necessarily care about the past, but these are the stats that begin to define team culture. Look for the Broncos to keep that trend alive while the Raiders spend the entire off-season looking for answers.
Who knew a game between two of the league's biggest disappointments would be the most exciting game of Week 17? Raiders RB Josh Jacobs scored the go-ahead TD with 24 seconds remaining to seal the victory from the Broncos that included a 15-15 4th quarter that featured three lead changes and a tie. Unfortunately, Jacobs celebrated a little too much after the game and got a DUI.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 1-14
(+14)
@ Indianapolis Colts 10-5
(49.5):
Colts
33-17 Colts 28-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: What a crazy game. The Colts could end the season 11-5 with one of the better defenses and offensive lines in the NFL and not make the playoffs (first such occurrence since the 2008 New England Patriots), while the Jaguars have the #1 draft pick sealed up if they don’t win. That’s a pretty obvious call, considering both teams need to win and lose, but I hate 14-point spreads, although the Jaguars have lost three straight by more than 14 points and all to playoff-worthy teams like these Colts. Ok, obviously Jacksonville is trying to not only lose these games but make sure they lose these games and the Colts can’t afford to lose. I’ve been convinced.
The ol' push. Ugh. In other news the Colts might be the best lowest playoff seed in NFL history, while the Jaguars secured the services of Trevor Lawrence, assuming they still want him or Lawrence still wants the NFL.
Los
Angeles Chargers 6-9 (-3.5)
@ Kansas City Chiefs 14-1
(44):
Chargers
24-23 Chargers 38-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: The Chiefs are resting everyone and the Chargers have a chance to look back and think “2020 wasn’t that bad, we almost got to .500” despite the entire season being a shit-show. 2021 looks bright for LAC, but unlike the Chiefs, LAC will be waiting until September for their chance. The Chiefs have struggled ATS when they were firing on all cylinders, so I have no problem taking the Chargers and the points on the road against the same team that’s resting everyone. I’m not even sure resting all of their starters is the best idea, but I’m just an armchair QB. Get ready to shine, Le’Veon.
Nothing to see here, besides my awful Le'Veon Bell call. Honestly I just threw his name out there to have a possible monster day because I didn't know he needed any rest.
Arizona
Cardinals 8-7
(-3)
@ Los Angeles Rams 9-6
*(40.5):
Cardinals
26-24 Rams 18-7
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cardinals need a win and a Chicago Bears loss to make the playoffs, but if they beat the Rams handily and the Bears win, wouldn’t the Rams be on the outside looking in? LAR won the first game 38-28 Week 13 and holds % tiebreakers over Arizona, but would lose the divisional record tie-breaker if they lost to the Cardinals. What a whirlwind. Leonard Floyd and Cam Akers are questionable, which would be a huge blow to LAR if they didn’t go. There’s also the matter of Jared Goff, who seems to shrink in the biggest moments. Apparently he’s not playing anyway. What is it with that QB draft class? No. 1 & 2 turn out to be regular season heroes who end up with statues of other contemporary QBs outside their own stadiums. This is where we see what Kyler Murray is worth. Does he take the Cardinals on his shoulders and get them to the playoffs (assuming the Chicago Bears lose), or does he wilt under the pressure and prove another box office QB only applies to the regular season?
Once again a game Kyler Murray was involved in saw a QB lead their team in passing and rushing, but it wasn't Murray. No, he got hurt again. The dynamo award goes to none other than John Wolford (231 passing yards; 1 INT; 6 carries for 56 rushing yards). Who, you ask? Who the hell knows.
Seattle
Seahawks 11-4
(-6.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 6-9
(46):
Seahawks
27-23 Seahawks 26-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Isn’t it weird we pointed to Russell Wilson’s monstrous MVP-caliber season (4,031 yards; 38 TDs; 13 INTs) all year and the oft-ridiculed Kirk Cousins could end the season with the exact same numbers? I digress, but it’s worth a mention. The 49ers have worked miracles with a decimated team in 2020, which should earn Kyle Shanahan Coach of the Year considerations, but the Seahawks are trying to slide into the 2nd seed and home-field “advantage” until the NFC Championship game, if not hosting it. Could the 12th Man be in attendance by then??? Hell no, have you seen what's going on recently? Considering the stakes the call seems pretty easy, it’s the nearly TD cover that makes me uncomfortable.
Almost nailed it.
New
Orleans Saints 11-4
(-6.5)
@ Carolina Panthers 5-10
(47.5):
Saints
27-21 Saints 33-7
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Fog; high 60s)
Keys: The Saints hold the 2nd seed tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks, but will be without wunderkind Alvin Kamara, the latest victim of the NFL’s covid protocol. Looks like someone celebrated that record-tying performance last week instead of staying home. Par for the Saints playoff luck course, but a slide to the 3rd seed is the worse thing that could happen. Still, home field advantage is something worth fighting for and the Saints could have it the entire playoffs if the Green Bay Packers screw up. The loss of Kamara is devastating, though, and will likely bleed into the playoffs, but for now they have to worry about beating the Panthers, which shouldn’t be a problem. Covering nearly a TD, much like another game with playoff connections to this one (SEAvSF), could be a problem, though.
Apparently losing Alvin Kamara wasn't the end of the world and now the NFC South champion Saints are back to looking like a very dangerous team heading into the playoffs.
Tennessee
Titans 10-5
(-7.5)
@ Houston Texans 4-11
(56.5):
Titans
30-24 Titans 41-38
Sunday, 4:25 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Titans, seemingly like every other potential playoff team in the AFC, hold % tiebreakers over the Indianapolis Colts, so all they need to do is win against the Texans and they win the AFC South and make the playoffs. Seems easy enough against a four-win Texans team, right? Nothing is a sure shot against Deshaun Watson, and the Titans were just shellacked in Green Bay, although they might blame the snow, but these Titans are too good and too talented to leave their playoff hopes to computer algorithms. Look for Watson’s heroics to cover the 7.5 points, but not secure the win as the Titans win the AFC South and try to go on another deep playoff run for the second year in a row.
I should've made the Texans cover a Top-5 pick this week, because the Titans didn't come close to covering, despite Derrick Henry's annual monster Week 17 performance (34 carries for 250 rushing yards; 2 TDs), after the Texans flipped the game script on the Titans and outscored Tennessee 23-10 in the last 18 minutes of the game after being outscored 31-15 in the first 42 minutes.
Washington
Football Team 6-9
(-2)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 4-10-1
(43.5):
Eagles
23-21 Football Team 20-14
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Windy;
high 50s)
Keys: Washington and Philadelphia walk into a bar. Actually there’s no need for a joke when these two teams embody one. Washington just released their embattled franchise QB 19 months after drafting him in the first round in 2019, and Philadelphia benched their franchise QB weeks ago, and what’s worse, to better results and locker room chemistry. If Washington wins they’re in, which means there’s no chance on Earth they’re winning this game. As I said before, the football gods won’t allow it. They appreciate Ron Rivera, his struggle and his integrity, but the Football Team and their pathetic ownership doesn’t deserve it this season and the football gods are aware of this. Besides, they’ve already decided it’s much better for the NFL is the over-hyped Cowboys miraculously win the NFC East with a losing record after the season they just endured only to see them get destroyed Wild Card Weekend. This is what NFC East teams live for: Destroying the playoff chances of their bitter divisional rivals.
The only thing more fitting then this game crowning a division champion was the "fearless" Doug Pederson being caught up in a conspiracy theory that crashed into a wall of logic called "drafting the 6th pick instead of the 9th pick". It never had anything to do with the 6-10 New York Giants, but so much for those guts and "you play to win the game".
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