Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Green Bay Packers 5-2 (-5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 4-4 (50.5): Packers 27-21
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)
Keys: The 49ers were just getting back in rhythm before they lost Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle again last week, and Kittle isn’t coming back anytime soon. The Packers are dealing with their own attrition, losing both Aaron Jones for weeks and now his backup Jamal Williams. That hasn’t slowed the other Aaron, Aaron Rodgers (20 TDs; 2 INTs) or his top target, Davante Adams (504 receiving yards; 7 TDs despite missing time), but it’ll be a little harder to fake the hand off to a third-string RB assuming Jones (Q) can’t go. The Packers are fraudulent to some degree, with a defense that gives up nearly as many points and yards as the Packers offense scores, and Green Bay has the sixth-worst point differential of any winning team (+32 or 4.6 ppg); in fact, the 49ers have a better point differential at 4-4. However, Bill Parcells said it best, “The best ability is availability”, and many of the 49ers top weapons on both sides of the ball are simply unavailable.
Denver Broncos 3-4 *(+4) @ Atlanta Falcons 2-6 (50): Falcons 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Broncos have been doing the opposite of the Falcons lately, pulling wins from beyond what seemed like their week-to-week graves, while the Falcons seem to find new ways to blow giant leads to lose games week-to-week. You don’t have to dig too deep to find ways to justify taking the points here.
Seattle’s Seahawks 6-1 (-3) @ Buffalo Bills 6-2 (55): Seahawks 31-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The 6-2 Bills (-1 point) are part of a three-team club with winning records and negative point differentials, only surpassed by the 4-3 Raiders (-16 points) and the 5-3 Browns (-31 points). The Bills also have the best record of those three teams, but all is not well upstate. Josh Allen went from the MVP conversation to pundits again questioning his long-term effectiveness. Considering the Bills defense is no longer worth a mention, the Bills offense, the reason for their record, needs to get back on track to beat a similar, but even more impressive Seahawks team. Speaking of forgotten once-dominant defenses, the Seahawks and Bills should have no trouble surpassing a relatively high O/U.
Chicago Bears 5-3 (+6) @ Tennessee Titans 5-2 *(46.5): Titans 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Titans have lost two straight after starting the season 5-0 and the Bears couldn’t be a better team to get on track against. The Bears allow the 10th most rushing yards in the league and if anyone can chug in the heat it’s Derrick Henry. The Titans get back on track while the Bears slip closer to their preseason presumed mean.
Baltimore Ravens 5-2 (-1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 5-2 (47.5): Ravens 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: It doesn’t get much better than this mid-season match up. Both teams come in 5-2, both teams possess top offenses and defenses, both teams have point differentials of 8.9 (IND) and 10.1 (BAL) ppg, and the Ravens are undefeated on the road while the Colts are undefeated at home. Baltimore didn’t do so well against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers after their bye week, and the Colts aren’t any easier of a defensive test, as they stuff the run as well as anyone. Lucky for the Ravens, they’re not quite as sack happy as the Steelers, although conversely, the Ravens (5th sacks) might have trouble getting to Philip Rivers as the Colts allow the fewest sacks in the league.
Carolina Panthers 3-5 (+10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-1 (52.5): Chiefs 31-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: The Chiefs hit a few road bumps a quarter way through the season, but have since throttled two bad teams (DEN; NYJ) to regain their swagger. The Panthers, on the other hand, were making the best of a seemingly lost season before losing three straight, including games to the worst team with a winning record in the Chicago Bears and the Atlanta Falcons. The Chiefs should take care of business rather easily on what will seem like a summer day in Kansas City, but don’t be surprised if you sweat out the 10.5 points.
Detroit Lions 3-4 (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings 2-5 (52.5): Vikings 30-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Lions are running out of CBs and the Vikings just happen to have one of the best RBs in the NFL in Dalvin Cook (652 rushing yards; 5.34 ypc; 10 TDs) to help them set up the play action that will eventually run the Lions out of Minneapolis.
New York Giants 1-7 (+2.5) @ Washington Football Team 2-5 (42.5): Giants 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: There may be games with worse combined records Week 9, but few, if any, games are less compelling, even if you consider a win by the WFT and their claim to a piece of the NFC East compelling. As long as Daniel Jones keeps leading the Giants in INTs and rushing yards while the defense gives up nearly 25 ppg there’s not much hope for the Giants until the 2021 draft, assuming covid doesn’t ruin everything first. Then again, the Football Team is one drubbing of a wounded Dallas Cowboys from losing six straight after a Week 1 comeback win against the Philadelphia Eagles. In other words, take the 2.5 points.
Houston Texans 1-6 *(-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6 (50.5): Texans 31-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% storms; low 80s)
Keys: Few teams have underachieved like the Texans in 2020, so seven points against any team seems like a stretch, especially between two divisional opponents that look eerily similar on paper. Except in this case against the equally-pathetic Jaguars, who won’t even have Minshew Mania to rely upon, instead handing the keys to rookie Jake Luton as the Oregon State product relieves an injured Gardner Minshew. Look for this game to end much like their Week 5 match up.
Las Vegas Raiders 4-3 *(+1) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-5 (51.5): Raiders 26-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Fool me once, shame on the Chargers. Fool me five times and you can’t shame me enough. I’m running to the window to take the point and this battle-tested Raiders team.
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-1 (-14) @ Dallas Cowboys 2-6 (42): Steelers 35-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A 14-point spread with a predicted point total of 42 means Las Vegas thinks the Steelers will double up on the Cowboys, which given the fact the Steelers can make life a living hell for Ben DiNucci and Ezekiel Elliot is questionable, that’s not a bad assessment. Double-digit road favorites seems like a stay-away, but not for these Steelers and these Cowboys. As for the O/U, clearly the sharps don’t really see much of anything coming out of Dallas.
Miami Dolphins 4-3 (+4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 5-2 (48.5): Cardinals 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both teams enter Week 9 riding high, winners of three straight games. The Cardinals just beat the Seahawks in OT before their bye week last week, which just happens to be the last team the Dolphins lost to (Week 4). Miami likely won’t force four first half Cardinals TOs like they did to the LA Rams last week, but they’ve been playing well. In fact, these teams match up well on paper, except Kyler Murray-led Arizona is much more explosive on offense, averaging nearly 100 more offensive yards per game, including over 60 more ypg on the ground.
New Orleans Saints 5-2 (+4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-2 *(50.5): Buccaneers 33-24
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 70s)
Keys: Hollywood couldn’t write a better script. Both teams are fighting for the NFC South, the Buccaneers are already a game behind the Saints after their Week 1 match up, and the game features the two oldest QBs in the league, both well over 40, who also just happen to be within a TD pass of each other and the all-time NFL record (Tom Brady: 561; Drew Brees: 560). Oh yeah, and Antonio Brown is back. Let’s talk about another potential locker room problem in Michael Thomas, who is questionable, but so is his return to the Saints in general. Even if Chris Godwin can’t go Antonio Brown will almost assuredly take his place and then some, for better or worse. If the weather plays a role the Saints may struggle to cover the four points, but if the weather holds out they have a chance, just not much of one to win the game.
New England Patriots 2-5 (-7) @ New York Jets 0-8 (42): Patriots 24-16
Monday, 8:15 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Calm; low 50s)
Keys: These teams have combined for 13 losses already in 2020 and haven’t won a game in one (NE) to ten months (NYJ). Both teams could be missing key players again, which is part of the reason both teams stink. I’ve never had less faith in a Patriots team covering seven points against a terrible Jets team, but that’s what it’s come to after the worst start to a Patriots season in 20 years. Tom Brady is having a season down in Tampa Bay, but before the Brady fans scream “Told yah so!’, let’s not forget covid has effected New England as much as any team in the league between opt-outs and delays. Cam Newton also went from his MVP version to the version that most teams passed on, despite the bargain.
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