Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Indianapolis Colts 5-3 (+1.5) @ Tennessee Titans 6-2 (48.5): Colts 27-24
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: The Colts gave away the game to the Baltimore Ravens Sunday, while the Titans, who have been struggling lately, beat a Bears team that had a puncher’s chance at a miraculous win. What that says to me is the Colts and Titans could be in opposite positions if not for a few plays and the stakes Thursday are high. This is the first of two games between these teams over the next three weeks, so a loss Thursday night would put the Colts in a precarious position. That doesn’t mean anything at the 10th week, per se, but a two game deficit with serious potential for three game deficit to the same divisional opponent by Week 12 is plenty of motivation. This will be a battle on the ground between two of the best ground games on both sides of the ball in the NFL (IND: 2nd 3.3 ypc allowed; TEN; 6th in rushing yards & 7th in ypc), which could open the passing game for the Titans, but the Colts happen to be good at defending that, too (7th ypa). This is a tough one, because the Titans are 4-1 at home, but the Colts simply can’t afford to lose and there’s no weather to mess with their indoor sensibilities.
Houston Texans 2-6 (+3) @ Cleveland Browns 5-3 *(49.5): Browns 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Windy, 80% rain; high 50s)
Keys: This game may not even happen due to covid shutting down the Browns facility this week, but just in case the NFL finds more positive cases and decides it’s totally justified to have dozens of people that were around the positive cases continue on 48 hours later, we’ll go on reviewing the game. These teams couldn’t have more different records, yet a quick glance at the stats would make that hard to decipher. Both teams possess glaring negative point differentials (CLE: -3.8 ppg; HOU: -6.2 ppg) and have similar yards gained/allowed. The Browns scored six points against the Raiders at home two weeks ago and then had two weeks to plan for life after OBJ, which will be tough. You can probably take 10 ppg from the Browns considering they don’t have OBJ as a threat with or without the ball. Cleveland does get Nick Chubb back, at some capacity, so the Browns may become mudders from here on out, which is fine because they were one of the better running teams in the league anyway (HOU: 31st in ypc allowed). The Texans haven’t improved much since their coaching and front office two-birds-with-one-stone change; their only two wins all season have come against their division rival and punching bag Jacksonville Jaguars. The last time the Browns were home two weeks ago they laid an egg in the wind and pouring rain. Guess what? Hey, at least they’re playing the Texans this time, and being an indoor team is one of the many obstacles Houston has to overcome Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles 3-4-1 (-3.5) @ New York Giants 2-7 (44.5): Eagles 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Eagles started the season looking like the pre-Clean Air & Water Act days and have begun to rebound like the bird they’re named after. The Giants season has mirrored the inside of Golden Tate’s head, which also seems to only be winning about 22% of the time. The Giants are the team that started the Eagles current two-game winning streak, but before anyone gets too excited, that other win was against the Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia also needed to score 12 unanswered points late in the 4th-quarter, after being down 21-10, just to pull the win from their derriรจre, so come to think of it, nothing about the Eagles play of late has been inspiring in the least. Add the inclement weather and this game is a toss away. Advantage bye week team.
Washington Football Team 2-6 (+3.5) @ Detroit Lions 3-5 (45.5): Lions 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Ugh. The Lions are capable of scoring in bunches, but they don’t often do. Washington can’t score or gain yards to save their lives, but they can stop teams from scoring, especially bad ones, which is interesting because that’s what Matt Patricia was hired to do in Detroit, yet the Lions give up a lot of yards (24th) and points (28th). The interesting thing here is the Lions are banged up at wide out and Washington happens to defend the pass better than anyone (1st ypa allowed), assuming you want to ignore the competition. Another year, another “wait ‘til next year”.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-7 (+13.5) @ Green Bay Packers 6-2 *(50.5): Packers 28-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: %70 wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: The Jaguars rank 28th against the pass and they’ll be playing in wintry conditions. There isn’t much else to say other than the under is in play and the Packers might have trouble covering just because of the conditions, assuming the weather doesn’t flip.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-3 *(-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers 3-6 (50.5): Buccaneers 30-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 20% rain; low 70s)
Keys: Last week I forgot about Christian McCaffery and almost paid for it. I haven’t forgotten this week, but he’s out anyway after suffering another injury Sunday. The Buccaneers happen to be stout run defenders (1st yards allowed & ypc), so perhaps the stat line from earlier in the season (McCaffery: 18 carries, 59 yards, 2 TDs) wouldn’t have been that much different. The long and short of it is Tom Brady can’t afford to lose another divisional game, which is strange territory for Brady, especially at this point in the season.
Los Angeles Chargers 2-6 (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins 5-3 *(48.5): Dolphins 30-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: If Tua Tagovailoa can stay upright against the Chargers he might be able to take advantage of Los Angeles’ poor secondary with his talented, but under-the-radar WRs. Either way, the Dolphins have been playing great, winning four straight games. Expect more of the same Sunday, as Miami is turning into one of the better teams in the AFC, while the Chargers toil with attrition and OT and one-possession losses.
Denver Broncos 3-5 (+5) @ Las Vegas Raiders 5-3 (50.5): Raiders 30-24
Sunday, 4:05PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I took the Broncos last week +4 and got burned, so despite some of the Broncos heroics lately, it might be tough to take the Broncos again, even at +5. What won’t be tough to take it the over, because these teams combine to allow nearly 56 ppg, and the Broncos have averaged nearly 26 ppg since Week 4. Then again, Denver has only averaged a mediocre 23 ppg since Drew Lock’s return Week 6 and the Raiders average 27.3 ppg on the season for a grand total of 50.3 ppg, which could trick one into thinking they know how Las Vegas sets the lines of these games.
Buffalo Bills 7-2 (+1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 5-3 (56.5): 33-30
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Kyler Murray and Josh Allen might look drastically different, but the results on the field are eerily similar. Both QBs have cannon arms, both have rushing skills and both share most of the load for their respective offenses. Obviously Murray is clearly the better rusher (543 yards, 7.2 ypc, 8 TDs), looking more like a punt returner than a QB sometimes, but Allen has five rushing TDs himself and clearly posses the threat. That’ll come into play Sunday, because these two teams rank right next to each other in the lower third of the league defending the run. Both teams are also middle-of-the-pack defending the pass, so expect fireworks from two likely playoff teams, whose points allowed don’t reflect having played offenses like each other, as both try to stay atop or keep pace in their respective divisions.
Cincinnati Bengals 2-5-1 (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8-0 *(47): Steelers 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Windy, 80% rain; high 50s)
Keys: I keep calling the Bengals the best two-win team through nine weeks in NFL history, but these 8-0 Steelers aren’t playing cupcakes, and they possess a 9.3 ppg point differential. Pittsburgh has largely lucked out with attrition and covid, save their early bye week issues, which is why their elite defense continues to suffocate teams. The Bengals are kind of hurting, and are on the road, albeit a short distance, so they probably don’t have much of a chance to win the game, but they can play in inclement weather, so a cover isn’t totally out the window. That is unless the Steelers pass rush mobs Joe Burrow, in which case the Bengals won’t come close to covering.
San Francisco 49ers 4-5 (+9) @ New Orleans Saints 6-2 (49): Saints 30-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Saints have won two OT games in the past four weeks, while the 49ers have been dealing with as much attrition as any team in the NFL. The point is these records could easily be reversed and we’d be pondering the 49ers giving nine points. San Francisco has proven that no matter the circumstance, nine points is too much for the Kyle Shanahan-led 49ers. Well, except for that loss ATS/outright versus Miami when they were giving nine points. And that loss at Seattle ATS/outright when they got three points. And the loss ATS/outright versus the Packers when they got 5.5 points. I sense a trend.
Seattle Seahawks 6-2 (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 5-3 (55.5): Rams 30-28
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Unless the Rams fixed their TO woes over the bye week, the Seahawks could easily lose by just one point; hell, they could win. Seattle comes into Sunday limping, with their running game hurting and a starting center that hasn’t played a snap yet in 2020, but even if Aaron Donald has free reign won’t Russell Wilson just escape (7.2 ypc; 3 sacks surrendered/game)? It might be tough with a limited running game against a defense with a good secondary, and the Almighty Donald. I mean Aaron, you fool. Something tells me Sean McVay saw an opportunity lost in Miami and made some improvements over the bye week to make sure they even the NFC West playing field as the mid-season mark passes.
Baltimore Ravens 6-2 (-7) @ New England Patriots 3-5 (43.5): Ravens 28-20
Sunday, 8:20PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Gusty, 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Patriots had trouble with the Ravens when Tom Brady was a perennial MVP candidate and the Ravens were run by Joe Flacco, so one can only look with wonder at how much the tables have turned in just a few short years. Now the Ravens represent the cream of the NFL while unrealistic Trevor Lawrence talk permeates Boston area sports radio. That’s not to say those old Ravens were like the current Patriots, quite the opposite in fact, but the point is the teams were evenly matched if not tipped in New England’s favor and they still struggled with Baltimore. I had trouble giving the Patriots seven points against the Jets, and the Patriots nearly lost, so I’m not making that mistake against these Ravens, road game in the wind and rain, or not.
Minnesota Vikings 3-5 (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears 5-4 (43): Vikings 24-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear; low 40s)
Keys: The 3-5 Vikings being 2.5-point favorites tells you all you need to know about the Bears, who have lost three straight games, and could just as easily have lost nine straight games (-0.75 overall ppg point differential; +4.0 ppg point differential in their five wins). Dalvin Cook (858 rushing yards; 6.0 ypc; 12 TDs in 6.5 games) has been living up to his surname all season, and the Bears give up almost 117 ypg on the ground. The Vikings will need to get Cook going, because the Vikings have a laughable passing game and the Bears rank 7th against the pass and have Kahlil Mack. I just can’t buy into the Bears, but it’s not like the Vikings instill any confidence. This is a pick for Dalvin Cook, who barely slows in outdoor games or on grass.
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