Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Arizona Cardinals 6-3 (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks 6-3 (57): Cardinals 33-27
Thursday, 8:20 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 40% rain; high 40s)
Keys: The Seahawks are spiraling into the ocean, losing three of their past four games, which started with an OT loss to these Cardinals Week 7 in Arizona. The Seahawks are pretty banged up, especially along the offensive line, and the Cardinals defense isn’t half bad. The Seahawks defense is all bad. Seattle allows by far the most yards in the league (448.3 ypg) and gives up 29.6 ppg (28th), which is 0.5 points from being second worst in the league. The Cardinals just so happen to be the most explosive offense in the league, led by sophomore Kyler Murray, and lead the league in rushing and total yards. Coincidentally, Arizona scores 29.6 ppg (6th), which isn’t ranked first, of course, because that spot belongs to the Seahawks (32.2. ppg). What a whirlwind. The bottom line is the Russell Wilson, despite all his greatness, is clearly no miracle worker and these Cardinals are just too explosive for the worst defense in the league, although the one thing Seattle does well defensively is stop the run (5th). Go figure.
Philadelphia Eagles 3-5-1 (+3) @ Cleveland Browns 6-3 *(47.5): Browns 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 90% rain; high 40s)
Keys: Again with the torrential downpours??? Apparently it hasn’t stopped raining in northern Ohio for almost a month <insert election joke here> but now Cleveland’s running game (3rd ypg & ypc) is back to full speed with the return of Nick Chubb, so let the mudding begin against the league’s 7th-worst run defense. On a basic stat sheet (ppg; yards; yards allowed) you can barely tell these two teams apart; in fact they have nearly identical negative ppg point differentials (CLE: -3.1 ppg; PHI: -3.2 ppg). But before we can point to SoS, the Eagles play in arguably the worst division in the NFL and sit atop that scrapheap two games under .500 more than halfway through the season. The Eagles just qualify as a top-10 running team themselves (9th-ranked LAC rushes for almost +10 rypg while the 11th-13th-ranked teams rush for within -2 rypg of PHI), but the Browns happen to be one of the best run defenses in the league (T-6th ypc; 8th rypg allowed).
Atlanta Falcons 3-6 (+4) @ New Orleans Saints 7-2 (52): Saints 26-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I hope the Falcons defense has been staying loose because they’re about to have a bunch of balls thrown their way. Jameis Winston gets the nod Sunday with the injury to Drew Brees so it’s interesting to note that Las Vegas has them giving four points. Wait...Winston’s not even starting? Taysom Hill is?! Now the line makes zero sense, because Hill is essentially a larger Julian Edleman, and I don’t want a 3rd-string gimmick QB in charge of a divisional game in a tight divisional race. The Falcons have won all three of their games over the past four and have had a week to prepare for, well, probably Winston before Sean Payton threw this change-up at Atlanta. In New Orleans’ current six-game winning streak they’ve had two one-possession wins v. terrible teams, two OT wins v. bad teams, one win v. a depleted team and a win against Tampa Bay past Tom Brady’s bedtime. In other words, I’m taking the four points.
Cincinnati Bengals 2-6-1 (+1.5) @ Washington Football Team 2-7 (47): Bengals 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Keys: Oy vey. Do we have to? Let me keep this one quick: I’m running to the window to take the 1.5 points against Washington, I don’t care what their passing defense is ranked against the mediocre competition they’ve faced all year. I’m on this hypothetical, alternate universe, “if only X they’d be 7-2” Bengals train sink or swim.
Detroit Lions 4-5 (-1.5) @ Carolina Panthers 3-7 (47): Panthers 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: Another dozy. The Lions got a gift in the form of a questionable roughing the passer call last week against the previously glossed-over Washington Football Team that ultimately led to a game-winning FG instead of OT. Hey, at least the rookie defender who made the mistake claimed he “learned from his mistake, but would do the same thing over again”. Wait, that was the last preview. Never mind. The point here is Detroit likely won’t get that lucky again, but they may not need it against a Panthers team with a questionable Teddy Bridgewater and who is again without Run CMC indefinitely. The Lions have their own attrition issues, but this is anybody’s game.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-0 (-10.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-8 (46): Steelers 33-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: Everyone is on upset alert, but that’s because it’s so obvious. 9-0 v. 1-8. Divisional game. The notion that Pittsburgh has to lose at some point, which, of course, is ridiculous. Oh, Jacksonville brought the Packers to the brink? The Packers are an overrated team with a terrible defense led by one of the mot arrogant people in the league. You really think the Packers weren’t looking past the Jacksonville Jaguars in the snow at home in Green Bay? Mike Tomlin and the Steelers will make no such mistake Sunday as the league’s best overall defense lays waste to the team that gives up as many points as the Steelers average on offense (30.1 ppg).
Tennessee Titans 6-3 (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 6-3 (49.5): Ravens 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: Arguably the week’s best game, the Titans come into Sunday needing a win to keep pace with the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South and the Ravens need a win or risk third place in their own division in a year when many people though this team was running away with the Super Bowl if not for the Kansas City Chiefs. The way things are going for both of these teams they’re lucky the NFL has that extra playoff spot or they both could potentially be screwed. The Titans are pretty bad defensively, but they’re abysmal against the pass (28th), which is good considering the Ravens are one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL (31st at 184 ypg). Baltimore is, however, the league’s best running game (164 ypg) and the Titans are mediocre at best defending the run. Both teams come in banged up, but the Titans are hurting. Look for the Ravens to take advantage of the Titans on the ground, as long as Lamas Jackson can handle it, but the way Tennessee holds onto the ball (1st TO ratio) combined with the air of desperation is certainly cover-worthy.
New England Patriots 4-5 (-2) @ Houston Texans 2-7 (48.5): Patriots 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: How the mighty have fallen. Just a few short years ago the Texans seemed to try and failed to dethrone the Patriots annually, but the Tom Brady era seems like a distant memory in New England at this point and the Deshaun Watson era in Houston stagnated under Bill O’Brien, especially after the Deandre Hopkins trade. So what we have here is a game between two teams that likely won’t even make the playoffs this season, unless the Patriots and Cam Newton can get back to their dominating run game, which could happen against the league’s worst run defense in Houston. Considering Houston’s pass defense is middle-of-the-road, the game plans seems pretty obvious, which means Bill Belichick will do the opposite of what everyone’s thinking. Wait though, doesn’t that mean Belichick will know what everyone is thinking and will do the opposite of the opposite of what everyone thinks he’ll do? Keep that brow unfurled everyone, the Patriots will chew this clock and run all over their former defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel.
Miami Dolphins 6-3 *(-3.5) @ Denver Broncos 3-6 (45): Dolphins 30-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Keys: Tua Tagovailoa can become the 2nd QB to start his career 4-0 and the Dolphins could be winners of six straight if they can climb 5,280 feet from sea level dropping 40º F and beat a team they match up pretty well with in yardage totals, both gained and allowed, and both on the ground and in the air. They even sack the QB at basically the same rate. So what gives between two teams so evenly matched, yet couldn’t be further apart in point differential; in fact, they’re polar opposites (DEN: -7.5 ppg; MIA: +7.7 ppg)? TOs. The Dolphins are +5 (4th), while the Broncos are an astonishing -12 (31st). Therein lies the key to the NFL.
New York Jets 0-9 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-7 (46.5): Chargers 30-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Jets are putrid, and the Chargers, a mere two games better in the record column, simply aren’t. They’ve just shot themselves in the foot as much as any team in the league, in addition to other issues, most glaring of which could be their TO ratio (25th at -3), because as bad as the Jets are their TO ration is 0, which explains and average team having seven losses in nine games, and it’s not because of their rookie QB (LAC: 7th passing yards; 10th passing TDs; 11th fewest INTs; 11th ypa)
Green Bay Packers 7-2 (+1.5) @ *Indianapolis Colts 6-3 (50.5): Colts 30-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: The Packers and Colts have sacked the QB nearly the same amount of times, which doesn’t really make much sense considering the Colts destroy the Packers in every important defensive metric, including pressure percentage and QB hits. So what gives? Blitz rate – the Colts blitz about 6% less, which explains the disparity in every pass rush metric but actual sacks. The problem there is the Packers give up the 3rd-fewest sacks (11), and possess one of the best overall offenses in the NFL to offset their terrible defense. The Colts offense is nothing to sniff at, however, and their defense is one of the best in the league. Considering neither team turns the ball over this game comes down to whether or not the Packers can get the ground going well enough to take the Colts 2nd-ranked pass defense off their backs. That might be a tough task – the Colts rank 4th against the run. Unless the Aaron’s and Davante Adams can somehow take over the game, and Aaron Rodgers has dominated the turf in three games this season, the Colt should have not trouble covering the 1.5 points, if not completely exposing the Packers.
Dallas Cowboys 2-7 (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-5 (48): Vikings 30-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings have spent the month of November beating the NFC North to get closer to .500, including an impressive win over the Green Bay Packers, but the Vikings remain a team rife with issues with the exceptions of one of the best offensive line in the league (1st ypc; 3rd sacks allowed; 5th rushing yards), Dalvin Cook (954 rushing yards; 5.5 ypc; 12 TDs), Justin Jefferson (762 receiving yards; 18.1 ypc) and Adam Thielen (9 TDs). Ok, their offense. The point is their defense is terrible, but no matter, the entire Cowboys team is terrible now.
Kansas City Chiefs 8-1 (-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders 6-3 *(57): Chiefs 34-24
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Are the Chiefs really going to lose to the division rival Raiders twice in a row and let them hang around the AFC West? One might think it’s possible since the Raiders are home and Josh Jacobs could open up the run game, but there are no fans in Las Vegas yet and there's just now way these speedsters don’t enact revenge on the indoor turf against the only team that’s beaten them in nearly two seasons.
Los Angeles Rams 6-3 (+4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-3 *(48.5): Buccaneers 27-24
Monday, 8:15 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Clear; high 60s)
Keys: The last time the Rams faced Tom Brady they lost to him in Super Bowl LIII, and it wasn’t because of the defense. Aaron Donald and company (3rd sacks) will be salivating, including Jalen Ramsey of the old New England Patriots punching bag Jacksonville Jaguars, to get to Brady while the Rams try to keep pace with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. There are many similarities between these teams - from yards to points to sacks – but one glaring difference is TOs (LAR: 0; TB: +5), although if you deleted those four first half TOs against the Miami Dolphins three weeks ago those numbers would be close, too. The Rams have to stay with the Seahawks, but the Buccaneers need to win to stay with the Saints and are home on the other side of the country with an extra day to prepare. It’s hard to bet against Tom Brady in any uniform in that scenario. The money line, that is.
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