Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Green
Bay Packers 5-2
(-5.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 4-4
(50.5):
Packers
27-21 Packers 37-17
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)
Keys: The 49ers were just getting back in rhythm before they lost Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle again last week, and Kittle isn’t coming back anytime soon. The Packers are dealing with their own attrition, losing both Aaron Jones for weeks and now his backup Jamal Williams. That hasn’t slowed the other Aaron, Aaron Rodgers (20 TDs; 2 INTs) or his top target, Davante Adams (504 receiving yards; 7 TDs despite missing time), but it’ll be a little harder to fake the hand off to a third-string RB assuming Jones (Q) can’t go. The Packers are fraudulent to some degree, with a defense that gives up nearly as many points and yards as the Packers offense scores, and Green Bay has the sixth-worst point differential of any winning team (+32 or 4.6 ppg); in fact, the 49ers have a better point differential at 4-4. However, Bill Parcells said it best, “The best ability is availability”, and many of the 49ers top weapons on both sides of the ball are simply unavailable.
The Packers led 34-3 in the 4th quarter and Aaron Rodgers added four more TDs passes to his "See, I'm still top State Farm guy" campaign. The 49ers are decimated, so there's no call for bragging rights here, just another way to fool people into thinking the Packers are world beaters.
Denver
Broncos 3-4
*(+4)
@ Atlanta Falcons 2-6
(50):
Falcons
27-24 Falcons 34-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Broncos have been doing the opposite of the Falcons lately, pulling wins from beyond what seemed like their week-to-week graves, while the Falcons seem to find new ways to blow giant leads to lose games week-to-week. You don’t have to dig too deep to find ways to justify taking the points here.
The Broncos had to outscore the Falcons 21-7 in the 4th quarter just to make this look like a game, or you could look at the 4th quarter like there was actually a chance the Falcons blew another huge lead. What the hell is wrong with these Falcons keeping leads? It reminds me of a story from the state of Georgia last week...
Seattle’s
Seahawks 6-1
(-3)
@ Buffalo Bills 6-2
(55):
Seahawks
31-27 Bills 44-34
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The 6-2 Bills (-1 point) are part of a three-team club with winning records and negative point differentials, only surpassed by the 4-3 Raiders (-16 points) and the 5-3 Browns (-31 points). The Bills also have the best record of those three teams, but all is not well upstate. Josh Allen went from the MVP conversation to pundits again questioning his long-term effectiveness. Considering the Bills defense is no longer worth a mention, the Bills offense, the reason for their record, needs to get back on track to beat a similar, but even more impressive Seahawks team. Speaking of forgotten once-dominant defenses, the Seahawks and Bills should have no trouble surpassing a relatively high O/U.
With all due respect to the Bills, the Seahawks turned the ball over four times. Even the mighty DangerRuss Wilson, who managed to cut the lead in half in the 4th quarter, can't overcome that.
Chicago
Bears 5-3 (+6)
@ Tennessee Titans 5-2
*(46.5):
Titans
27-20 Titans 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Titans have lost two straight after starting the season 5-0 and the Bears couldn’t be a better team to get on track against. The Bears allow the 10th most rushing yards in the league and if anyone can chug in the heat it’s Derrick Henry. The Titans get back on track while the Bears slip closer to their preseason presumed mean.
The Bears turned the ball over twice, one a fumble returned for a TD, and trailed 24-3 before the Bears made it appear like a game by scoring 14-unanswered points on a pair of late Nick Foles TD passes late in the 4th quarter. The Bears out-gained the Titans 375:228 and had 11 more first downs, so the near comeback should be the least of the Titans worries exiting this game.
Baltimore
Ravens 5-2
(-1.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 5-2
(47.5):
Ravens
24-23 Ravens 24-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: It doesn’t get much better than this mid-season match up. Both teams come in 5-2, both teams possess top offenses and defenses, both teams have point differentials of 8.9 (IND) and 10.1 (BAL) ppg, and the Ravens are undefeated on the road while the Colts are undefeated at home. Baltimore didn’t do so well against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers after their bye week, and the Colts aren’t any easier of a defensive test, as they stuff the run as well as anyone. Lucky for the Ravens, they’re not quite as sack happy as the Steelers, although conversely, the Ravens (5th sacks) might have trouble getting to Philip Rivers as the Colts allow the fewest sacks in the league.
This game was eerily similar to the CHIvTEN game in that one team was dominated on the stat sheet, but crushed on the scoreboard partly due to TOs, one of which being a TD fumble returned. The Ravens held the ball longer, but were out-gained by the Colts 339:266; Philip Rivers wasn't even sacked (in fact, both QBs were only hit twice), while Lamar Jackson was sacked twice. Nothing in this game points to the Ravens winning, except the two TOs, which led to 14 points.
Carolina Panthers 3-5 (+10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-1 (52.5): Chiefs 31-20 Chiefs 33-31
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: The Chiefs hit a few road bumps a quarter way through the season, but have since throttled two bad teams (DEN; NYJ) to regain their swagger. The Panthers, on the other hand, were making the best of a seemingly lost season before losing three straight, including games to the worst team with a winning record in the Chicago Bears and the Atlanta Falcons. The Chiefs should take care of business rather easily on what will seem like a summer day in Kansas City, but don’t be surprised if you sweat out the 10.5 points.
Whoops, someone forgot about Run CMC.
Detroit
Lions 3-4
(+4)
@ Minnesota Vikings 2-5
(52.5):
Vikings
30-24 Vikings 34-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Lions are running out of CBs and the Vikings just happen to have one of the best RBs in the NFL in Dalvin Cook (652 rushing yards; 5.34 ypc; 10 TDs) to help them set up the play action that will eventually run the Lions out of Minneapolis.
Basically what I said.
New
York Giants 1-7
(+2.5)
@ Washington Football
Team 2-5
(42.5):
Giants
21-20 Giants 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: There may be games with worse combined records Week 9, but few, if any, games are less compelling, even if you consider a win by the WFT and their claim to a piece of the NFC East compelling. As long as Daniel Jones keeps leading the Giants in INTs and rushing yards while the defense gives up nearly 25 ppg there’s not much hope for the Giants until the 2021 draft, assuming covid doesn’t ruin everything first. Then again, the Football Team is one drubbing of a wounded Dallas Cowboys from losing six straight after a Week 1 comeback win against the Philadelphia Eagles. In other words, take the 2.5 points.
This was a tale of two halves, but it was also a tale of five Washington TOs, including three INTs from Alex Smith. I haven't seen someone drop the ball this badly in Washington DC since last Tuesday.
Houston
Texans 1-6
*(-7)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6
(50.5):
Texans
31-17 Texans 27-25
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% storms; low 80s)
Keys: Few teams have underachieved like the Texans in 2020, so seven points against any team seems like a stretch, especially between two divisional opponents that look eerily similar on paper. Except in this case against the equally-pathetic Jaguars, who won’t even have Minshew Mania to rely upon, instead handing the keys to rookie Jake Luton as the Oregon State product relieves an injured Gardner Minshew. Look for this game to end much like their Week 5 match up.
Of course the second I have faith in the Texans and not the Jaguars the teams almost flip the script on me. This ended up being one of the most evenly-played games of the week and everyone had the Texans crushing, including me. I'll just take the time now to apologize for my 1-4 Week 9 Top 5 performance. Hey, remember last week when I went 5-0? No? Ugh...
Las
Vegas Raiders 4-3
*(+1)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 2-5
(51.5):
Raiders
26-24 Raiders 31-26
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Fool me once, shame on the Chargers. Fool me five times and you can’t shame me enough. I’m running to the window to take the point and this battle-tested Raiders team.
A classic AFC West battle between two teams that are much closer in reality than they are on paper, which is strange, because at the beginning of the year you could have argued the inverse for both teams.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 7-1
(-14)
@ Dallas Cowboys
2-6
(42):
Steelers
35-10 Steelers 24-19
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A 14-point spread with a predicted point total of 42 means Las Vegas thinks the Steelers will double up on the Cowboys, which given the fact the Steelers can make life a living hell for Ben DiNucci and Ezekiel Elliot is questionable, that’s not a bad assessment. Double-digit road favorites seems like a stay-away, but not for these Steelers and these Cowboys. As for the O/U, clearly the sharps don’t really see much of anything coming out of Dallas.
The Cowboys turned the ball over twice and were outscored 15-0 in the 4th quarter and still only lost by five points. Add the fact the Steelers only got to Garrett Gilbert, don't ask me who that is, twice and you have the recipe for a Pittsburgh team that might've been overlooking these Cowboys.
Miami
Dolphins 4-3
(+4.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 5-2
(48.5):
Cardinals
27-24 Dolphins 34-31
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both teams enter Week 9 riding high, winners of three straight games. The Cardinals just beat the Seahawks in OT before their bye week last week, which just happens to be the last team the Dolphins lost to (Week 4). Miami likely won’t force four first half Cardinals TOs like they did to the LA Rams last week, but they’ve been playing well. In fact, these teams match up well on paper, except Kyler Murray-led Arizona is much more explosive on offense, averaging nearly 100 more offensive yards per game, including over 60 more ypg on the ground.
Wow, the future looks bright. The Dolphins scored the first seven points and the last ten to snatch victory from the equally upstart Cardinals. Kyler Murray won the individual battle, throwing for three TDs and running for another, but ended up losing the war to rookie Tua Tagovailoa (2 TD passes). This could be the Super Bowl in a few years.
New
Orleans Saints 5-2
(+4)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-2
*(50.5):
Buccaneers
33-24 Saints 38-3
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 70s)
Keys: Hollywood couldn’t write a better script. Both teams are fighting for the NFC South, the Buccaneers are already a game behind the Saints after their Week 1 match up, and the game features the two oldest QBs in the league, both well over 40, who also just happen to be within a TD pass of each other and the all-time NFL record (Tom Brady: 561; Drew Brees: 560). Oh yeah, and Antonio Brown is back. Let’s talk about another potential locker room problem in Michael Thomas, who is questionable, but so is his return to the Saints in general. Even if Chris Godwin can’t go Antonio Brown will almost assuredly take his place and then some, for better or worse. If the weather plays a role the Saints may struggle to cover the four points, but if the weather holds out they have a chance, just not much of one to win the game.
I can't stop laughing. Tom Brady's buddy loses the election in a landslide, Antonio Brown makes no difference whatsoever, Gronk caught one of six targets for two yards and now the Bucs have a glaring tiebreaker loss in the event the NFC South comes down to the Saints and Buccaneers. Don't take my gloating as bitterness; I wanted Brady out of New England long before TB12 arrived, it's just nice to see selfish phonies not get what they want sometimes.
New
England
Patriots 2-5
(-7)
@ New York Jets 0-8
(42):
Patriots
24-16 Patriots 30-27
Monday, 8:15 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Calm; low 50s)
Keys: These teams have combined for 13 losses already in 2020 and haven’t won a game in one (NE) to ten months (NYJ). Both teams could be missing key players again, which is part of the reason both teams stink. I’ve never had less faith in a Patriots team covering seven points against a terrible Jets team, but that’s what it’s come to after the worst start to a Patriots season in 20 years. Tom Brady is having a season down in Tampa Bay, but before the Brady fans scream “Told yah so!’, let’s not forget covid has effected New England as much as any team in the league between opt-outs and delays. Cam Newton also went from his MVP version to the version that most teams passed on, despite the bargain.
It took a comeback (13-unanswered 4th-quarter points) to beat the worst team in the league, on the feet of Cam Newton no less, but these aren't the old Patriots so a win wasn't a foregone conclusion before the game and a comeback victory shouldn't surprise anyone. The way the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are playing it's become clear the Patriots reign over the AFC East is officially over...for now.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.