2018 NFL SEASON
Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/
spreads & analysis)
Week 7 results: 10-4
(wins); 8-6 (v. spread); 7-6-1 (O/U)
Season totals: 69-36-2 .657
(wins); 52-52-3 .500 (v. sp); 57-49-1 .543 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
JJ Watt has stayed healthy so far in 2018 and it's paid dividends for the Houston Texans, winners of four straight after starting the season 0-3.
Miami Dolphins 4-3 (-7.5) @ Houston Texans 4-3 (44.5): Texans 27-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM,
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Dolphins
started the season 3-0 and fools lined up to celebrate a team other than New
England winning the AFC East for the first time in what seems like decades. Not so fast my friends, Lee Corso would say, because
the Dolphins have since gone 1-3 since then and now sit as the
worst team in the NFL by far with a winning record. Miami ranks in the bottom
25% of the league in both yardage metrics and points scored; they rank 18th
in points allowed (25.3 ppg). The only thing the Dolphins do well is
ball hawk; they rank 1st in INTs, which might come into play against
the second-year quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been running for his life
all season. Speaking of the Texans, they’ve trended in the opposite direction of the Dolphins,
winners of four straight after starting the season 0-3. The offense has crept
towards mediocre while the defense, ranked 8th in PA (20.6 ppg)
and 9th in total defense, has begun to play like the Texans defenses
we’ve come to know, or better put, have played to their talent level, especially
getting after the quarterback, where they rank 8th in sacks. The
Texans are hot, playing well on defense and are at home. This should be a
no-brainer, but I don’t like spreads of touchdowns or more with unproven teams,
especially on Thursday Nights.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-3 (+4.5)
@ Cincinnati Bengals 4-3 (54): Bengals 28-27
Indianapolis Colts 2-5 (-3)
@ Oakland Raiders 1-5 (50): Colts 28-24
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Philadelphia
Eagles 3-4 (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4 (42.5): Eagles 24-17
Sunday,
9:30AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Word on the street is several defensive players from the Jaguars got arrested
at a nightclub in London after getting into a bar brawl over a $60K bill. If
that’s true then Jacksonville has even less of a chance against the returning
Super Bowl champions, especially with the Eagles fresh off giving up 21 4th quarter points to
the Carolina Panthers to lose 21-17 after leading 17-0 going into the 4th quarter. In other words, the Eagles could be
looking to take out some frustration on a group of Jaguars clearly licking
their wounds. The home team Jaguars could be in trouble in front of the home
crowd on their home pitch Sunday. That’s a Shahid Khan joke.
Denver Broncos 3-4 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-1 (53.5): Chiefs 31-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons: The last time the Broncos faced Wonder Boy Patrick Mahomes and the
high-flying Chiefs they made Kansas City look like a normal team…for a half.
Then Patrick went Mahomes on Denver in the altitude at Mile High and proved
that the Broncos AFC West run was indeed over. That game was in Denver. This
game is in Kansas City. I normally don’t like 10-point spreads, but when I do,
it’s for the Chiefs facing Denver at home in the toughest place to play in the
NFL.
Cleveland Browns 2-4-1 (+8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2-1 (42): Steelers 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
60% rain; low 50s)
Reasons: The last time these two teams faced each
other they played to an uninspiring tie opening week, the first of a few ties to start the 2018
NFL season, and not much has changed for either team since. The Browns have played
in a million OT games and the Steelers have been wading in mediocrity and team
drama as Le’Veon Bell continues to play with their money and their emotions.
The weather also remains the same, although that won’t bother either of these
teams. Rookie Baker Mayfield (6 TDs; 5 INTs) has had an up-and-down
season, which will likely continue Sunday in Pittsburgh, but Mayfield is no
punk, and he’d love the chance to get that elusive win against the Steelers on
the road, so those eight points are almost an insult.
Antonio Brown is as capable of jump kicking his own team as he is his opponents, but the Steelers aren't the same team without him.
Washington Football Team 4-2 (-1) @ New York Giants 1-6 (42): WFT 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East
Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Reasons:
The Giants are imploding before our very eyes and have just traded off the
remaining quality players on defense other than Olivier Vernon, so imagine the
disrespect Washington feels being one-point favorites against these 1-6 Giants
after going 3-1 in their last four against quality competition (GB, NO, CAR & DAL) and leading the
NFC East. Blame it on history, but if we’re talking history, these Giants might
be the worst Giants team in their history.
Seattle Seahawks 3-3 (+3):
@ Detroit Lions 3-3 (49.5):
Lions 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford
Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The take home
message with these two teams is they’re both better than we thought they’d be
before the season or even a few games into it, yet something has to give.
Essentially, we have one of the better offenses in the league taking on one of
the better defenses in the league, the latter of which is traveling across the
country to play in a 1:00 game. Las Vegas says they’re even, which the aren’t,
but under the transcontinental circumstances they probably are.
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati,
OH (Weather: 50% storms; high 50s)
Reasons: Well, it’s not
prime time so the Bengals have a chance. Featured in this match up are two of
the league’s worst defenses, hence the ridiculous 54-point O/U. Of the 13
combined games these two teams have been featured in nine have breached at
least 50 points and the remaining four have had combined scores of 44, 48, 48
and 49 points. I’m fascinated by the surge of points and touchdowns, specifically
in relation to the over/under, in which 50 is a relatively high number. Week 8
features six games with 50+-point O/Us, making that the fifth week in a row
with at least four games with such O/Us. The NFL says the fans want more
points, so tune in for this game if that’s the case. Bring an umbrella.
New York Jets 3-4 (+7.5) @ Chicago Bears 3-3 (45): Bears 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago,
IL (Weather: 80% rain; high 50s)
Reasons: This game
features one of the leagues best defenses (CHI) and good defenses (NYJ) against offenses that have crept up
on us at times in the 2018 season. Combine that with the potentially awful
weather and we have a potential dud here. Don’t necessarily trust me when it
comes to the weather, but do you trust Mitch Trubisky enough to give the Jets
over a touchdown? I don’t, although it’s getting harder not too.
It's been an up-and-down season for the rookie Sam Darnold, the 3rd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but lucky for him Khalil Mack is questionable.
Baltimore Ravens 4-3 (-2) @ Carolina Panthers
4-2 (44):
Ravens 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons: Talk about a
clash of titans. This game not only features two of the better defenses in the
NFL, but two of the biggest egos, between Cam Newton’s and the one possessed by
the Baltimore defense and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens are coming
off a devastating loss to the Saints after Justin Tucker missed the tying PAT,
while the Panthers are coming off a miraculous win of sorts last week after
they came back down 17-0 in the 4th quarter against the Philadelphia
Eagles to win 21-17. Seems to me the Ravens are still hungry while the Panthers
might be feeling a little blessed. That’s a bad combination, one that’ll likely
have Sour Cam out for the post-game presser.
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: Only a matter of
time before Chucky trades himself out of Oakland, right?
San
Francisco 49ers 1-6 (+1)
@ Arizona Cardinals 1-6 (42.5): 49ers 24-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale,
AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Ew.
Green Bay Packers 3-2-1 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 3-0 (56.5): Rams 30-20
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)
Reasons: This is the kind
of game where Aaron Rodgers is so miffed about being the largest underdog of
his career that he single-handily takes the Packers and puts them on his
shoulders and wins the game against the Rams. Wait, that’s what Rodgers does
every game, hence the 9.5-point spread. The Packers absolutely suck,
despite their confusing defensive metrics, which make them look good on paper.
No, Green Bay is a one-dimensional team in that Rodgers is their one dimension,
assisted by All-Pro wide out Davante Adams. The Rams, conversely, are as far from
one-dimensional as a team could get, although one could argue the Rams are
truly one-dimension – they line up and smash you in the mouth with an All-Pro
offensive line and an All-Pro running back in Todd Gurley, who is my mid-season
candidate for runaway MVP. Las Vegas doesn’t get much wrong, so if they say the
Packers suck relative to the Rams, I believe it.
Drew Brees quietly has the New Orleans Saints sitting at 5-1 in the midst of another MVP-caliber season..err...career.
New Orleans
Saints 5-1 (+1)
@ Minnesota Vikings 4-2-1 (52.5):
Vikings 28-27
Sunday, 8:20 PM, US Bank
Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Clear;
high 30s)
Reasons: The Vikings seem
to have righted their war ship just as the seas got really rough, which is good
considering the best team in the NFL still under the radar sails into Minneapolis
Sunday Night for the Game of the Week and Drew Brees is on a mission. Let’s see
what Everson Griffen has to say about Brees staying lit in Minneapolis, because
he’s back on the team after dealing with mental health issues, and it was
pretty clear the Vikings weren’t the same team without him. They could be
without Xavier Rhodes Sunday night, which could be a huge problem, but if
Rhodes is a go I wouldn’t expect the Saints to be firing on all cylinders in
the chill like they have been all season indoors or in great weather and winning their
fourth road game in five weeks.
New England Patriots 5-2 (-14) @ Buffalo Bills 2-5 (44.5):
Patriots 31-16
Monday, 8:15 PM,
New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Reasons: Here we go
again, the Bills and Patriots involved in spreads of two or more touchdowns. I
hate touching these games, because it seems so obvious to not pick a team
favored by egregious amounts of points, as the Bills have proved already on the
road this season, and it would be an especially bad idea to bet those points
against the home team…right? Well, every time I bet against the Patriots in
similar spreads I get burned. The Patriots are on fire offensively and the
Bills couldn’t score when their quarterback situation wasn’t a nightmare, so
all signs point to the Patriots destroying the Bills in Buffalo. Then you have
to consider the history of these to teams and the fluky past they have when it
comes to home and away match ups between the Bills and Patriots. Normally I’d
never pick the Patriots to cover 14 points at Buffalo at any point in the
season, but these particular Bills at this particular point in the season are
particularly bad.
BYEs: Atlanta; Dallas;
Tennessee; Los Angeles Chargers
Stay tuned for the remaining Tuesday's Gone: Week 8 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
ProFootballMedia.com
@ProFootballMed
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