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Thursday, October 11, 2018

Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUNDAY EDITION


2018 NFL SEASON

Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 5 results: 10-5 (wins); 5-9-1 (v. spread); 7-8 (O/U)
Season totals: 48-28-2 .615 (wins); 33-42-3 .423 (v. sp); 40-38 .513 (O/U)

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).


 The Philadelphia Eagles haven't flown anywhere so far in 2018, but at least quarterback Carson Wentz is finally back.



Philadelphia Eagles 2-3 (-3) @ New York Giants 1-4 (44): Giants 21-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 80% rain; low 60s)

Reasons: I’m sure when these two teams saw the Week 6 schedule they assumed one thing: Both teams would be in a much better position then they are coming into Thursday night’s game. The Giants have been much more predictable, from the mediocre play of Eli Manning (6 TDs; 3 INTs), to the constant Odell Beckham Jr. drama to the stellar play of rookie Saquon Barkley (582 total yards; 5 total TDs) despite the terrible play of one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Yes, the Giants remain stagnant, which wasn’t exactly predictable with Barkley drafted 2nd overall and OBJ coming back from injury, yet here they are, near the bottom of the league in points scored (20.8 ppg, 23rd), total offense (25th), time of possession (27th) and rushing (28th). The supposed Giants from New York still outscores Philadelphia (20.6 ppg, 25th), however, and although it’s only by a minuscule 0.2 ppg, 2017’s best team looks like a shell of their Super Bowl champion selves; even their 10th-ranked defense isn't as nasty and doesn’t sack the opposing quarterback at nearly the same rate, despite key off season additions. At some point the Eagles have get back on track, but at some point the Giants have to salvage their season, so I would expect something unusual on Thursday Night Football besides the standard close game between these NFC East opponents. Both teams are struggling, both teams are facing adversity and both teams are playing on a national stage on short rest in the pouring rain. Oh yeah, and both teams are bitter divisional rivals. The Eagles are favored by three on the road on short rest, but I’m not sure why.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-2 (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-4 (57.5): Falcons 31-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors) 

Reasons: Both teams come into Sunday on losing streaks of at least two games ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both total defense and points allowed, hence the 57.5 over/under. The Falcons are slightly better at home and could easily be 3-0 at home after losing an OT game to New Orleans Week 3 and by one point to Cincinnati Week 4. The Buccaneers got off to a hot start, with backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick starting even hotter, becoming the first NFL player to throw for 400+ yards in the first three games of the season, but things have since cooled for Tampa Bay and they come into Sunday arguably the worst defense in the NFL ranking at or near the bottom in takeaways and sacks in addition to giving up 34.8 ppg. The Falcons don’t turn it over (9th TO ratio) and they remain one of the most prolific offenses in the league (9th 26.6 ppg) and being at home should help their penalty woes (25th) despite the absence of Davonte Freeman. This should be one high-scoring mess.

Carolina Panthers 3-1 (+1) @ Washington Football Team 2-2 (45): WFT 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Partly sunny; mid-60s)

Reasons: This game features two disciplined teams with good defenses and mediocre offenses with great running games that don’t turn the ball over.  Neither defense gets after the quarterback, which bodes well for Cam Newton and Alex Smith as the game will most likely come down to which one of them makes the fewest mistakes.

Seattle Seahawks 2-3 (-3): @ Oakland Raiders 1-4 (48): Seahawks 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: London is a long way for two West Coast teams to travel, but hopefully the stadium isn’t too far for Londoners to travel to watch a terrible game. The Raiders are comically the 6th-ranked total offense, but that’s more of a function of the Raiders also being 2nd in offensive TOP then Oakland being a great offense. Seattle is the better team with a defense that ball hawks, but they’ll be without KJ Wright. Oakland also likes to turn the ball over, which plays right into the Seahawks hands.


 The Indianapolis Colts head to East Rutherford to face the NY Jets and a tough Jets defense Sunday.


Indianapolis Colts 1-4 (+2.5) @ New York Jets 2-3 (45): Jets 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cloudy; low 60s)

Reasons: The Jets are a disciplined good defensive team with a predictably inconsistent rookie quarterback who is about to face a team whose only qualities are getting after the quarterback and defending passes. The Jets happen to excel at the same thing, which doesn’t bode well for Andrew Luck and his terrible offensive line, but it seems Las Vegas might have a little more faith in Luck considering the Jets aren’t even getting the full three points at home; maybe it’s because they share a stadium with the Giants so they get docked a half point.

Arizona Cardinals 1-4 (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 2-2-1 (43): Vikings 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny; high 30s) 

Reasons: You know you’re bad when the most disappointing team in the NFL is giving you over 10 points, an insurmountable amount in the world of NFL spreads. Arizona is that bad.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2-1 (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-1 (53): Bengals 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 50% rain; high 50s)

Reasons: The Bengals haven’t beat the Steelers since 2015 and haven’t beat the Steelers at home since 2013. You could say Cincinnati is due. This is one of the deadliest rivalries in the NFL, a rule change inspiring rivalry, but these AFC North enemies come in to Sunday’s game with a different feel than in past games. For the first time in recent memory neither team comes into the game with a stout defense although the Steelers lead the NFL in sacks. Both teams do come in with great offenses with both teams averaging over 29 ppg (PIT: 28.6 ppg; CIN: 30.6 ppg), but Pittsburgh is the most penalized team in the NFL, something that could come into play in this vicious game. The only thing higher than the over could be the combination of penalties via helmet-to-helmet collisions. The Steelers have almost doubled up the Bengals in this rivalry approaching 100 games, but Cincinnati could get one back if Andy Dalton can stay upright.

Los Angeles Chargers 3-2 (-1) @ Cleveland Browns 2-2-1 (45): Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 60s

Reasons: The Browns have the chance to climb over .500 for the first time in four years Sunday, but I’m not sure the Chargers are the team they want to face to try and accomplish that feat. Los Angeles is better than their 3-2 record. They have a top-ranked offense (27.4 ppg) that doesn’t get penalized often (8th), they don’t cough up the ball but take it away (6th TO ratio) and they keep the ball away from their opponents (9th OTOP). The Browns are one of two teams in the NFL in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive TOP, which would be mathematically impossible if not for the Browns playing in an astounding three OT games already this season. Cleveland isn’t nearly as disciplined as LA, which is to be expected of a young team led by a rookie quarterback, but they do take the ball away (1st TO ratio), ball hawk (1st INTs) and sack the quarterback (10th). This game will come down to the veteran early season MVP candidate Phillip Rivers (1495 passing yards; 13 TDs; 2 INT) v. the rookie Baker Mayfield (838 passing yards; 3 TDs; 3 INTs).


JJ Watt is back after several injuries limited him the past several years, but just like the past several years, Watt's stellar play doesn't necessarily equal Houston wins.

Buffalo Bills 2-3 (+8) @ Houston Texans 2-3 (40): Texans 24-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Buffalo has the worst offense in the NFL, which is probably why the Texans are favored by eight points and the over/under is only 40, which basically means Las Vegas expects the Texans to win 24-16. That’s basically what the Bills average weekly score looks like, if Buffalo managed three more points per game.

Chicago Bears 3-1 (-3) @ Miami Dolphins 3-2 (41.5): Bears 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20% storms; low 80s)

Reasons: How the mighty have fallen. The Miami Dolphins were once 3-0 on top of the AFC East and feeling good about themselves until the New England Patriots started their quick descent into reality. After you clear the smoke and move the mirrors the Dolphins are only good at one thing – intercepting the ball (1st INTs). The Bears are good at that (3rd INTs), too, but they’re also good at most things on the defensive side of the ball. The troubling thing for Miami is Chicago is getting better on offense as well – the last time Mitch Trubisky took the field he threw six TD passes. The Bears are also disciplined (3rd PEN), take the ball away without coughing it up (3rd TO ratio) and keep their defense fresh and the opposing offense off the field (7th OTOP), while the Dolphins defense can’t seem to get off the field (29th DTOP). In other words, the Bears are everything the Dolphins were pretending to be.

Los Angeles Rams 5-0 (-7) @ Denver Broncos 2-3 (52.5): Rams 27-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: 90% snow; low 20s)

Reasons: The Broncos are a mediocre to poor football team with questionable wins facing the best team in the NFC, or maybe the NFL. The Rams are top-10 in every category except for playing in inclement weather – the Rams play in Los Angeles and the worst weather the Rams have had to face was overcast skies in Seattle last week. I’m not sure the Rams are built for snow, but I’m not sure the Broncos are built for the Rams. Every undefeated team has to lose at some point, and a snow storm in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL could be the perfect setting, but the way the games have gone this season it probably won’t even snow. The Rams keep rolling, but that over seems crazy in a potential snowstorm.

Baltimore Ravens 3-2 (-3) @ Tennessee Titans 3-2 (41): Ravens 21-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 50% storms; mid-60s)
Reasons: This should be a defensive battle of epic proportions, but mostly because the game features two top-7 defenses, or top-3 if we’re talking scoring defenses, and Joe Flacco v. Marcus Mariota in a potentially rain-soaked game. The Ravens offense sits just outside of the top-10 as well, but the same can’t be said for the Titans, who manage only 17.4 ppg. Tennessee has one of the smallest positive point differentials in the league (0.2 ppg), and for good reason - the Titans last four games since their opening week storm-delayed 27-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins have been decided by three or fewer points, including a one-point loss to the Buffalo Bills on the road last week. Expect another tight one Sunday, with the Titans ultimately singing the honkey tonk blues.

Jacksonville Jaguars 3-2 (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys 2-3 (40.5): Jaguars 21-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Jaguars are known as “Sacksonville” and their defensive exploits have been well chronicled the past few seasons, but I imagine far fewer people know about the Cowboys defense. Dallas ranks 8th in total defense, but 5th in points allowed at 19.2 ppg. Both teams also have big egos, which tend to hinder these teams as much as they help. The Jaguars are facing attrition on defense, but so are the Cowboys, who again are without defensive captain LB Sean Lee. This should be a low-scoring game, and only the Jaguars are accustomed to playing in those. The Cowboys have a lot to figure out, because being the 5th-ranked scoring defense means nothing in Dallas if the offense scores even fewer points (16.6 ppg) than their stout defense allows. 


 Bill Belichick and the infamous hoodie take on the red hot Kansas City Chiefs and Andy Reid in the Sunday Night Game of the Week.


Kansas City Chiefs 5-0 (+3.5) @ New England Patriots 3-2 (59.5): Patriots 31-27
Sunday, 8:20PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Clear; high 40s)

Reasons: Everyone knows the deal with this game and the much-talked about changing of the guard. Anyone who has sat on their couch on Sundays and watched the New England Patriots for the past 15 or more years knows how many times we’ve heard that statement only to see the Patriots rise to the top by the end of the year, usually at the expense of the very team that was supposed to supplant them. Just ask the Chiefs about 2017. Bill Belichick is 23-0 as a head coach facing quarterbacks under the age of 25, but if there was ever a kid to do it Patrick Mahomes III would be the high-pitched kid to do it, especially with the 2000 Rams-type arsenal of weapons at your disposal. I wonder if anyone taped the Chiefs practices? I kid, I kid, but this kid Mahomes isn’t kidding. The Patriots aren’t kidding, either, however, and the 38.0 ppg New England has averaged the past two games is probably the template for what we’re about to see the rest of 2018 rather than a temporary upswing towards the former New England norm. No, the Patriots are back to clicking on offense, and despite the Chiefs early season successes, New England has just rounded into the offensive shape it takes to win a shootout against Kansas City at home, where the Chiefs embarrassed the Patriots to open the 2017 season. Forget about these losses Dark Hoodie does not.

San Francisco 49ers 1-4 (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers 2-2-1 (46.5): Packers 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Clear; high 30s) 
 
Reasons: The 49ers gain marginal yards (15th total offense) and score marginal points (15th points scored); their defense doesn’t give up many yards (10th total defense), but allows lots of points (29th points allowed). So essentially the 49ers are a mediocre offense that just lost their franchise quarterback and a “break-but-don’t-bend” defense. San Francisco is not disciplined, they turn the ball over and they don’t get after the quarterback, the one chance the 49ers might have against Aaron Rodgers (1572 passing yards; 10 TDs; 1 INT) and the Green Bay Packers, who come into Monday Night Football with similar delusions as San Francisco. The Packers are the 4th-ranked total defense and the 10th-ranked total offense, yet Green Bay sits right in the middle of the pack averaging weekly scores of 23.0-22.8, hence the 2-2-1 record.  The Packers are also highly undisciplined (29th PEN) and have one of the worst turnover ratios in the league (24th), so basically, they’re lucky the get an equally bad to worse 49ers squad with no Jimmy Garoppolo, although I wouldn’t say 9.5 points worse.

BYEs: Detroit; New Orleans

Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 6 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday morning!

 

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