2018 NFL SEASON
Tuesday’s Gone: Week 7 #NFL Game Reviews
Week 7 results: 10-4
(wins); 8-6 (v. spread); 7-6-1 (O/U)
Season totals: 69-36-2 .657
(wins); 52-52-3 .500 (v. sp); 57-49-1 .543 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
Von
Miller will try to add to his 2018 sack total against the rookie
quarterback Josh Rosen as the Denver Broncos take on the Arizona
Cardinals on Thursday Night Football.
Denver
Broncos 2-4 (-1)
@ Arizona Cardinals 1-5 (42): Broncos 23-20 Broncos
45-10
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Univ.
of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The
Cardinals have yet to win at home this season and the Broncos haven’t won a
road game yet. Something has to give. That something could likely be Josh Rosen
(626 passing yards; 2 TDs; 2 INTs) giving in to Von Miller (5.5.
sacks; 2 FF) as Rosen has been sacked at least once in every game he’s
played in, including four suffered to the Minnesota Vikings last week, while
the Broncos are one sack away from ranking in the top-10. Neither team has an
offense worth mentioning, other than maybe the Cardinals fighting the Buffalo
Bills for Worst Offense, but both teams have top-10 total defenses, although
both teams surrender over 23 ppg. Every time two terrible offenses play two
decent defenses on a short week I predict a defensive battle rife with
mistakes, so the way my TNF predictions have gone so far this season we should
expect a perfectly executed shoot out.
Welcome to the NFL, Josh Rosen. The rookie quarterback threw three
INTs, two of which were returned for touchdowns, as the Cardinals were shot out
of the sky Thursday night against the Broncos at home. Denver didn’t even play
that well considering they scored 45 points and held the Cardinals to 10, but
five total turnovers is a lot to overcome, Arizona is that bad and Josh Rosen
has that far to go.
Tennessee Titans 3-3 (+6.5) @ Los
Angeles Chargers 4-2 (45): Chargers 24-20 Chargers 20-19
Sunday, 9:30AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The Titans had won three straight games Weeks 2-4 and were
riding high on a defense ranked in the top-10 in both total defense and scoring
despite the offense averaging a putrid 17 ppg. Well, now the offense is ranked
30th at 14.5 ppg and Tennessee has now lost two straight games, one game
to one of the best teams in the NFL (BAL) and one to one of the worst (BUF).
The Chargers are trending in the opposite direction, winners of three straight,
and are suddenly a team to be reckoned with considering their only two losses
have come in Weeks 1 & 3 to the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams and
they don a top-7 offense (5th scoring; 7th total)
led by early season MVP candidate Phillip Rivers (15 TDs; 3 INTs) and
Melvin Gordon (466 rushing yards; 6 TDs). The Chargers also have a
defense that ball hawks (7th INT) and remains relatively good
despite missing Joey Bosa all season. The only issue Los Angeles might have
could be traveling twice the distance Tennessee has to travel to play a morning
game in dreary old London.
Nothing to see here, chap, other than a solid American
football game between two good (TEN) to great (LAC) teams. Phillip River (306
passing yards; 2 TDs) added to his MVP candidacy as did the Chargers, who aren’t
really home, yet won their fourth straight game and
are looking more and more like one of the teams to beat in the AFC by the week.
New England Patriots 3-2 (-3) @ Chicago Bears 3-2 (49): Patriots 24-23 Patriots 38-31
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: This game features the 4th-ranked scoring offense that
hasn’t won on the road yet versus the 4th-ranked scoring defense
that hasn’t lost at home yet, although the sample size for both teams is only
two games. The Bears put out a great defense, led by Khalil Mack, that not only
sacks the quarterback (7th) but also takes the ball away (3rd
TO ratio) and usually by way of INT (2nd). The way New
England had been playing prior to Julian Edleman’s return I’d say that all
spells disaster for the Patriots, but New England looks like a new offense
between Edleman’s return and rookie Sony Michel’s (400 rushing yards; 4 TDs)
emergence. Chicago gets no respect at home against the returning AFC champions,
but would you trust Mitch Trubisky over Tom Brady?
The Patriots have come
alive offensively and have now provided two of the best games in recent memory
in back-to-back weeks. This game was so close that Kevin White was literally
stopped at the one-foot line trying to tie the game on a Mitch Trubisky (333
passing yards; 2 TDs; 2 INTs) hail Mary with two seconds left in the game. Both
teams committed TOs and both teams suffered their own attrition as the Bears
played slightly out of character, gaining far more yards than they’re accustomed
to while giving up far more. Tom Brady (277 passing yards; 3 TDs; 1 INT) threw
two TDs and helped the Patriots go up big in the 4th quarter before
the Bears late surge made it a much closer game.
Cleveland
Browns 2-3-1 (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
Buccaneers 2-3 (50): Bucs 28-27 Bucs 26-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Partly sunny; low
80s)
Reasons: The Bucs have one of the most
high-powered offenses in the league, gaining nearly 450 yards of total offense
and scoring over 28 ppg. The trouble is Tampa Bay also gives up over 440 yards
of total offense and surrender far more points at 34.6 ppg. The Browns are an
undisciplined team with a rookie quarterback in Baker Mayfield and an
under-achieving defense, but Mayfield can be electric and the Browns have the 2nd-ranked
TO ratio, aided by their ball-hawking defense (4th INTs).
These teams are pretty evenly-matched, but the Browns might have a hard time
keeping up with the Bucs on the scoreboard.
The Browns played in their
fourth OT game in seven weeks (CLE @ NO Week 2 was nearly an OT game as well) and
also played in a game decided by four or fewer points in their sixth of seven
games. That’s pretty remarkable for any team, especially one led by a rookie
quarterback. Alas, the Buccaneers won out on an OT record-breaking 59-yard FG off
the embattled foot of Chandler Catanzaro, despite Tampa Bay turning the ball
over four times, including two INTs from Jameis Winston (365 passing yards).
Baker Mayfield may become disillusioned, but it’s far more likely he comes out
a battle-tested star quarterback of the future.
Cam
Newton is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, but the Carolina
Panthers can live and die by their captain's emotions, which will be
high versus the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.
Carolina Panthers 3-2 (4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 3-3 (45.5): Eagles 23-21 Panthers 21-17
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lincoln Financial
Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: This is a tale of two top-10
scoring defenses and superstar quarterbacks with recent history. The Eagles
have finally found some ground – or sky I should say – after beating up
on the hapless New York Giants, while the Panthers barely beat those same
Giants 33-30 the week before. The Panthers haven’t won on the road this season,
and Lincoln Financial doesn’t seem like the first place that’s going to happen.
The Eagles led the Panthers 17-0 heading into the
4th quarter at home before Cam Newton (269 passing yards; 49 rushing
yards; 2 TDs) and the Panthers exploded for 21 unanswered points in the 4th
quarter sending the Eagles to 3-4 on the season and a Super Bowl Champion
uninspiring 2-2 at home. Carolina made a statement with the road win against the
defending champions, but the Panthers need to work on starting so slow as other
playoff-bound teams without Super Bowl hangovers loom and won’t be so
unfocused. The Eagles are by no means panicking, but the defense is nowhere
near where it was last season, and giving up 21 unanswered 4th quarter
points to lose a game you led at home in the 4th quarter is unacceptable against any opponent.
Minnesota Vikings 3-2-1 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 3-3 (46.5): Jets 24-23 Vikings 37-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: Both the Vikings and Jets have been
surprising this season, but only the Jets have been a pleasant one. The Jets
are a disciplined team (30th PEN) that doesn’t turn the ball
over (8th TO ratio) and takes the ball away (2nd
INTs). New York evens averages 27.5 ppg, although that number is inflated
by three huge games. The Vikings have been largely disappointing, especially on
the defensive side of the ball (24.7 ppg allowed, ranked 18th)
and the addition of Kirk Cousins was expensive, but also didn’t add much more
value than Case Keenum gave Minnesota last season.
The uninspiring Kirk
Cousins (241 passing yards; 2 TDs) held serve in my otherwise awful prediction
of a narrow Jets victory. New York committed four turnovers, including three
more INTs from the rookie Sam Darnold, and the Vikings scored 13 points off of
those TOs on a Cousins TD pass and two Dan Bailey field goals, ten of which
came in a 17-point 4th quarter. Latavius Murray (330 rushing yards;
3 TDs) also rushed for 69 yards and two TDs in the absence of Dalvin Cook.
Darnold has now thrown 10 INTs on the season to go along with 10 TD passes.
Detroit
Lions 2-3 (-2.5) @ Miami
Dolphins 4-2 (46.5):
Lions 27-24 Lions 32-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
(Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Reasons: The Dolphins have quietly turned
into the worst 4-2 team in the NFL, perhaps ever, ranking in the bottom third
of the league in yards gained, yards allowed, points scored, offensive time of
possession and sacks. The Lions aren’t much better, but at least their record
reflects it.
Brock Osweiler came back down
to Earth, Kenyon Drake didn’t cry, relatively unknown Kerryon Johnson ran for
158 rushing yards for Detroit and Matt Prater’s four field goals (12 points) were
literally the difference in the game as the Lions and rookie head coach Matt
Patricia hit .500 for the first time this season while the Dolphins rapidly swim back towards it.
Buffalo
Bills 2-4 (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-5 (43.5): Colts 24-21 Colts 37-5
Sunday,
1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Cringe Bowl features two teams
with three combined wins and the team with only one of those wins if favored by
over a touchdown, which says a lot about how bad Las Vegas considers Buffalo.
The Bills have arguably the worst offense in the NFL, ranked 31st in
yards gained and last in points scored (12.7 ppg); coincidentally, the
Colts defense ranks 27th in yards allowed and 30th in
points allowed, so perhaps this is the game the Bills finally score some points,
right? Wrong, because the Bills could be marching Chris Anderson out on the
field Sunday instead of the human INT machine in Nathan Peterman. That probably
won’t work considering the Colts rank 5th in sacks while Bills have
allowed the second most sacks in the league. Can the Bills pull of another road
upset? In terms of covering they certainly can.
What did we really expect
from a team starting Derek Anderson? Not much, which rang true after the Bills
turned the ball over five times, including three Anderson INTs while the Colts
managed 37 points off only 376 total yards. All this game made me wonder is how
the Colts have only managed to win two games so far this season.
It's
been an up and down season for the Houston Texans and DeAndre Hopkins,
who face another test at home Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Houston Texans 3-3 (+5) @
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3 (42): Jaguars 24-23 Texans 20-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium,
Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons: What happened to the Jaguars? Once
a fierce defense and loud and proud at 3-1, Jacksonville has now lost two
straight games, and not just lost, but were whooped, giving up an
average of 35 ppg to the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys. Conversely, the
Texans are winners of three straight and now sit at 3-3 with a 9th-ranked
total offense and an 11th-ranked total defense while giving up the
11th-fewest points in the league at 22.8 ppg, slightly worse than
the world beater Sacksonville defense. The Jaguars don’t even rank in the top
half of the league in sacks by the way. Another problem the Jaguars have is
turning the ball over (31st TO ratio) and they leave their
defense on the field too long (9th DTOP), but the Texans are
even worse (6th DTOP), so something has to give. The Jaguars
are desperate, their pride is hurt and they’re at home for the first time in
three weeks so I’d say the Jaguars are a safe bet. Considering the weather and
the way these two defenses have played at points throughout the season I’d say
the over is a safe bet, too.
Of course, my review ends
with “the over is a safe bet” and the game comically comes in over two
touchdowns below the O/U. At least I nailed the win, which clearly wasn’t a
tough task considering the tail spin the Jaguars are in, and the spread, which
was ridiculous considering the tail spin the Jaguars are in. Yes, Sacksonville
is in trouble, from the lack of the very thing they’re known for right to the
benching of their fumble-prone starting quarterback Blake Bortles to “put some
fire” into the team as head coach Doug Marrone put it. It won’t work.
New Orleans Saints 4-1 (+2.5)
@ Baltimore Ravens 4-2
(50.5):
Ravens 27-26 Saints
24-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny;
low 50s)
Reasons:
What an incredible game this should
be. New Orleans enters the game winners of four straight after losing an
opening week shoot out to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as their typical selves, a
dynamic offense (1st points
scored; 3rd total offense)
led by future HOFer Drew Brees (1658
passing yards; 11 TD) with a mediocre defense that helps make Brees the
stat-padder he is (26th PA).
The battle-tested Ravens also enter Sunday’s game with a typically stout
defense; in fact, the Ravens are the best defense in the NFL across the board,
including sacks. It’s the offense (9th
total offense; 12th points scored) that comes as surprise and
helps make Baltimore the proverbial dark horse of the AFC. If this game was in
New Orleans it would be a different story, obviously, but it’s not, obviously,
and considering the Raven’s strengths, it’s not looking good for Brees and the
Saints. Obviously. Right?
Justin Tucker missed a rare
PAT after a Joe Flacco touchdown pass to Josh Brown made it 24-23 with 24
seconds remaining, and the most accurate kicker in NFL history failed to tie
the game leading to the Ravens third loss while sending the Saints to a lucky
win and a 5-1 start. Tucker has been the hero many times in Baltimore, so chalk
this game up to a fluke loss, but this one hurts considering the Saints are one
of the best teams in the NFL and the Ravens had largely taken care of business
to give themselves a chance at home. 2018 has been the year of the terrible
kicker, so it was only a matter of time before the best one in the game got
stung.
Dallas Cowboys 3-3 (+1.5) @ Washington Football Team 3-2 (41.5): WFT 21-20 WFT 20-17
Sunday,
4:25 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The Cowboys have won over 61% of
the games in this rivalry spanning 114 meetings, including four straight, a
streak that may continue Sunday. The Cowboys are suddenly one of the best
defenses in the NFL, ranking 2nd in points allowed, 4th
in total defense and 7th in sacks. That could pose a problem for the
offensively-inept WFT, which ranks 25th in both total offense and
points scored. The funny thing is the Cowboys are even worse on offense (26th points scored; 29th
total offense), and despite their outlier 40-point exploits versus the
Jacksonville Jaguars, they could struggle against a Washington defense (5th total defense; 8th
PA) that ranks almost as high as the Cowboys. In other words, these are
basically the same teams facing each other Sunday in another NFC East classic
showdown. This game could come down to a crucial turnover, something the WFT
likes to capitalize on (4th TO
ratio).
Prestin Smith returned a Dak
Prescott (273 passing yards; 2 total TDs) strip-sack fumble one yard with 4:55
left in the game to go up 20-10 on the Cowboys, making the possibility for a tie
even remote. Well, that remote chance occurred after a 1-yard Prescott touchdown
run made it a 20-17 game with 1:37 left and Dallas had a chance to tie the game
with a field goal with three seconds remaining after forcing a Washington punt
on the preceding possession. A bogus snap violation was called on Dallas and
made what would’ve been a 47-yard FG a 52-yard FG and Brett Maher ended up missing his first
FG since opening week. The Zebras must talk to their horse cousins about these
Cowboys because something is up.
Los
Angeles Rams 6-0 (-9.5) @ San
Francisco 49ers 1-5 (52): Rams 33-24 Rams 39-10
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons: Holy crap does this game have trap
written all over it. Arguably the best team in the NFL, the Rams come into the
game ranked 1st in total offense, 3rd in points scored, 7th
in points scored and only 11th in total defense because teams spend
the entire second half of every game desperately trying to come back. The three
young stars of Los Angeles in Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and Robert Woods are on
pace for 4,500 yards passing, 1,400 yards rushing and 1,200 receiving,
respectively. San Francisco is arguably one of the most forgettable teams in
the NFL now that “Jimmy G” is gone for the foreseeable future and the 49ers are
owners of the worst turnover ratio in the league (-11). No, the 49ers
don’t stand much of a chance against the Rams Sunday, but two of the 49ers five
losses have come by three or fewer points to very solid to good football teams
(GB; LAC), so the 9.5 points might be little much, especially at
home.
I honestly thought the
49ers would keep it with 10 points Sunday at home, but San Francisco continued
their woeful turnover issues and surrendered four more turnovers to the Rams Sunday,
who capitalized on three of those turnovers via two Todd Gurley rushing TDs and a Jared Goff TD
pass. Los Angeles only needed 331 total yards to drop 39 points on San Francisco
and it was clear from the beginning of the game the Rams were simply too
stacked on both sides of the ball and clearly overwhelmed the 49ers.
Andy Reid the Kool Aide Man has almost rookie Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs off to a hot start, but they'll be tested at home Sunday versus the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2 (+6) @ Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 (58): Chiefs 31-28 Chiefs 45-10
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: Clear; low 40s)
Reasons: The Bengals are an illegal pick by
the Pittsburgh Steelers from being 5-1 like the Chiefs, but regardless of the
details of that game or the analytics involved in this game, it’s safe to say
we’re primed for another shootout between these two teams, who have either done
so with every opponent they’ve faced or just buried every opponent they’ve
faced. The highest O/U in NFL history was last week’s KC v. NE game, which
tipped off at 59.5; this game is at 58 and the Bengals are no New England
Patriots team. Expect points in bunches Sunday night and the Chiefs to roll on
as the Bengals ultimately fail in the toughest place to play on the road in the
NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals have to be the most
infuriating team in the NFL from their fan’s perspective. At least the, say, Cleveland Browns
fans expect to lose. The Bengals will end a season 13-4, their only four losses
coming in every prime time game they played in the regular season and then the
first round of the playoffs. The Chiefs, conversely, are firing on all cylinders
offensively, no matter what stage they're on, and even with one of the worst defenses in NFL history unfolding
before our eyes, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes (358 passing yards; 4 TDs; 1
INT) have Kansas City at a level most teams can’t keep pace with, while the basically rookie quarterback continues his MVP campaign.
New
York Giants 1-5 (+4.5) @ Atlanta
Falcons 2-4 (54.5): Falcons
28-24 Falcons 23-20
Monday,
8:15 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Giants are absolutely terrible,
ranking in the bottom third of the league in total offense, points scored,
points allowed, sacks and turnover ratio, not to mention ranking 1st
in the NFL in unnecessary drama. The Falcons are just as bad on defense,
ranking 30th in total defense and 31st in points allowed
while also struggling to pressure the quarterback (26th sacks), although they do ball hawk (10th INTs). The big
difference between the Giants and Falcons is offense, where Atlanta excels,
ranking in the top-10 in total offense and points scored as well as 7th
in turnover ratio. That TO ration could be the difference in the one win
separating these two terrible teams, but let’s be honest: Atlanta is the better
team.
The end is nigh for Eli Manning, who made 399
passing yards look as pathetic as only Eli Manning could make it look at this
point in his career. Now we get to second guess the Giants decision to pass on a supposed
franchise quarterback in the draft for generational talent in Saquon Barkley, which
should tell you everything you need to know about the value of quarterbacks in
the NFL. The Falcons aren’t doing much better, but at least they have excuses.
BYES: Green Bay; Oakland; Pittsburgh; Seattle
Stay tuned for Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Sunday morning!
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