2018 NFL SEASON
Week 5: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Week 4 results: 9-6 (wins); 6-7-2 (v.
spread); 6-9 (O/U)
Season totals: 38-23-2 .623 (wins); 28-33-2
.459 (v. sp); 33-30 .524 (O/U)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on
the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA);
Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD
efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover
ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).
Things got back to normal for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots Sunday after beating the Miami Dolphins 38-0 at home, where the face the Indianapolis Colts Thursday Night.
Indianapolis Colts 1-3 (+10) @ New England Patriots 2-2 (51): Patriots 28-17
Thursday, 8:20PM,
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 30% rain; mid-50s)
Reasons: The
Colts and Patriots have a long history, both on and off the field, mostly dominated on the field by the Patriots for much
of the rivalry since the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning days. Not much has changed on the field
since Andrew Luck took over. Off the field the rivalry might be as hot as ever if
you consider Indianapolis’ attempt to sabotage Brady’s career with Deflate
Gate and New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels leaving Indianapolis at the head coaching alter in the off-season. If you look past the history and take the logos off of the helmets you wouldn't be able to tell these teams apart offensively: The Patriots
(23rd) gain only a quarter of a yard more per game than the
Colts (24th, 337 ypg) and score only 0.3 more ppg. New
England has the better overall defense (11th),
but the Colts are second in the league in sacks, the one thing that stunts the
Patriots, both on offense (keeping Brady upright) and defense (New England ranks
29th in sacks). Indianapolis
is the 4th-most penalized team in the NFL, while New England is the
second-least penalized team, but is that enough to warrant a 10-point spread considering all
this information? Sure it is when that aforementioned history still has Brady seething,
the Patriots get Julian Edelman back from PED suspension while TY Hilton is absent
due to injury, and the Colts just played five quarters of divisional football four
days ago. Patriots cover, but I’m weary of that over.
Miami Dolphins 3-1 (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 3-1 (49.5): Bengals 28-21
Oakland Raiders 1-3 (+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-2 (43.5): Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Tennessee Titans 3-1 (-3.5) @ Buffalo
Bills 1-3 (39): Titans 21-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
50% rain; low 70s)
Reasons: The Titans are a thunderstorm-forced
two-hour delay fluky opening week loss to the Miami Dolphins away from being
undefeated, and they’ve been doing it without Marcus Mariota part of the time.
Meanwhile, the Bills are one fluky 27-6 win on the road against the Minnesota
Vikings from being 0-4. Although both teams are similarly ranked on offense (TEN – 24th; BUF – 31st) and
defense (TEN – 16th; BUF – 15th),
the Titans get after the quarterback (7th
in sacks) and that’s not good news for rookie Josh Allen.
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati,
OH (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Reasons: The Dolphins were exposed
Sunday against the New England Patriots, losing 38-7 (the seven points coming late), tarnishing their reputation of being
undefeated. In all seriousness the Dolphins were smoke and mirrors as they
ranked in the bottom quarter of the NFL in bottom total offense (29th) and total defense (26th), and despite being 3-1,
lose their games by an average of 2 ppg. There aren’t many 3-1 teams in the NFL
with negative point differentials. The Bengals might come across to some as
equally illusional, but Cincinnati’s offense is ranked 15th in the
league and 4th in points scored (31.5
ppg). The Bengals underachieving defense is as bad as Miami’s, but that
shouldn’t be a problem against a struggling Dolphins offense at home.
Baltimore
Ravens 3-1 (-3) @ Cleveland Browns 1-2-1 (47):
Ravens 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First
Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 30%
storms; low 70s)
Reasons: The AFC North has just
received another competitor as the Browns have taken flight with rookie
quarterback Baker Mayfield. Cleveland was robbed of at least another tie last
week against the Oakland Raiders otherwise the Browns would be .500 or better
after four games for the first time since, well, who the hell knows; even
Browns fans have forgotten. Assisting Mayfield with his introduction into the
NFL is the Browns defense, ranked 7th in sacks, 3rd in
INTs and first in turnover ratio (+7).
Unfortunately for Cleveland they face the Ravens, who are ranked in the top-10
in both defense (2nd) and
offense (10th); Baltimore
also has one of the highest point differentials in the league (+14.6). The Ravens also get after the
quarterback and ball hawk themselves, so Mayfield has his work cut out for him.
Aaron Rodgers is back throwing darts, this time towards the Green Bay Packers coaching staff.
Green Bay Packers 2-1-1 (-1):
@ Detroit Lions 1-3 (+51):
Lions 27-24
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Ford Field,
Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Lions might be the best
1-3 team in the NFL, ranking 11th in total offense and 8th
in total defense. Detroit also beat the New England Patriots 26-10, a feat that
now seems remarkable, certainly relative to Week 3. The Lions also have the 4th
most sacks in the league, which doesn’t bode well for the healing Aaron
Rodgers. The Packers are another enigma, ranking 16th in total
offense, despite needing their offense to win games, and 6th in
total defense, despite Green Bay’s defense always seemingly their Achilles heel.
The wild thing is despite giving up only 3.3 ypg more than Green Bay, the Lions
give up 7.7 more ppg. Teams don’t gain yards against the Lions or Packers, but
teams certainly manage to score points on the Lions. The truth is the 2-1-1 Packers
22-0 shutout of the Buffalo Bills skews the numbers slightly, but Green Bay also
ranks 4th in sacks and 8th in INTs, meaning Matthew
Stafford could be in trouble, even if he escapes the rush, which depends on
Clay Matthews, who might still be struggling with the rules. Something doesn’t
quite seem right with Green Bay and the Lions seem to be trending upwards.
Where have we heard that before?
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1 (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs 4-0
(48.5): Chiefs 24-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: 90% rain; low 70s)
Reasons: The hype surrounding this
game revolves around the Chiefs top scoring offense led by rookie sensation Kermit
Mahomes (1200 passing yards; 15 total TDs)
against the league’s top scoring defense, but it’s really about the individual matchups,
the game being in Arrowhead and the fact the inconsistent Jaguars haven’t
played on the road since their Week 1 opener against the hapless New York Giants.
I doubt the rain effects Mahomes too much, but it could affect the over.
Denver Broncos 2-2 (-1) @ New York Jets 1-3 (42.5):
Jets 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East
Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: The Broncos might have
trouble acclimating to the 11am start Sunday, but Denver’s 13th-ranked
offense will likely have trouble moving the ball against the Jets, who came
into the 2018 season hyped on offense, but have relied much more on their 13th-ranked
defense. The Jets rank 5th in INTs, 7th in turnover ratio
and 12th in sacks and only allow 88 rushing yards per game. The true
test for Denver (148 rushing yards per
game) will be whether they can run the ball on New York; if they can’t the
Jets could cruise.
Atlanta Falcons 1-3 (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Steelers 1-2-1 (57): Steelers 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
20% storms; low 80s)
Reasons: A 57-point O/U for an early
October game in Pittsburgh seems high for any combination of teams and seems
more fitting for a game played in the comfy indoor confines of the Mercedes
Benz Stadium. Alas, it isn’t, so I’d take the under. This game features two of
the league’s best offenses, but also two of the league’s worst defenses and
most inconsistent teams. Both teams have also faced difficult schedules. Other
than the fact the Falcons will likely struggle in the weather, if it ends up
raining, no one knows what to expect in this game, which probably explains the
spread.
26 Bells and all is still not well in Pittsburgh, where Le'veon Bell continues to hold out while the locker room chemistry rots away.
New York Giants 1-3 (+7) @ Carolina
Panthers 2-1 (44.5): Panthers 24-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: 30% rain; mid-80s)
Reasons: It was only a matter of
time before Odell Beckham Jr. started unraveling. Talking about your sacrifices
for the team when said sacrifices include not being filed with lines white
powder next to you on social media is all one needs to hear to understand why
this team is going nowhere even if they traded someone on the Jets for a new
offensive line. Meanwhile the Panthers are coming off their bye with a rested
defense that ranks 6th in INTs and 8th in points allowed
and an offense that has the top rushing attack.
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: The Raiders were gifted
their only win by the officials last week and now the second-worst defense in
the league faces the 9th-ranked offense in Los Angeles, who also
happen to rank 6th in the league in INTs, which doesn’t bode well
for Derek Carr (7 INTs). I’m all out
on the Raiders.
Minnesota Vikings 1-2-1 (+3) @ Philadelphia
Eagles 2-2 (44.5): Eagles 24-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium,
Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Light rain; high 70s)
Reasons: When the NFL released the 2018
schedule people lost their minds about the Week 5 2017 NFC Championship rematch,
but instead we’re stuck with two teams that could easily be 1-3. Neither team
has lived up to the 2018 hype, and to make matters worse, both team’s defenses
seem like shells of their 2017 selves, despite Philadelphia being top-10 in
both scoring (9th) and total (10th)
while ranking 9th in sacks. Regardless of all the early season woes,
both talented teams could still wind up in the NFC Championship again in 2018,
although that would be tougher for the loser of three games in their first
five.
Arizona Cardinals 0-4 (+4) @ San Francisco
49ers 1-3 (41): 49ers 23-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
(Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Reasons: Gross.
Todd Gurley and the Los Angeles Rams look to continue rolling over teams Sunday when they take on the Oakland Raiders at home.
Los Angeles Rams 4-0 (-7) @ Seattle
Seahawks 2-2 (50.5): Rams 28-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
20% rain; high 50s)
Reasons: The Rams used to travel to
Seattle and beat the Seahawks when the Rams were still terrible and living in
St. Louis and the Seahawks were the Legion of Boom loudly encouraged by their
rabid neon 12th men (and women).
Imagine what’ll happen tomorrow?
Dallas Cowboys 2-2 (+3) @ Houston Texans
1-3 (45):
Cowboys 24-23
Sunday, 8:20 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: Don’t mess with Texas - as
in this is one of the worst games of the week. The Cowboys only remain relevant
because of geography and an influential owner, which is why the rest of the
country is stuck with the supposed Game of the Week featuring teams with 3-5
combined records. Even more troubling is the amount of talent on the field,
which may or may not be on display Sunday night.
Washington Football Team 2-1 (+6.5) @ New Orleans
Saints 3-1 (52.5): Saints 30-23
Monday, 8:15
PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Suffice it to say I don’t
give the WTC much of a chance against the Saints in New Orleans, even with
Alvin Kamara (275 rushing yards; 5 TDs),
because Week 5 marks the return of Mark Ingram from suspension. Washington’s 3rd-ranked
scoring defense and 2nd-ranked total defense looks great on paper,
but two of those games have come against the Arizona Cardinals and a wounded Green
Bay Packers team. Future 1st ballot Hall of Fame and the likely soon-to-be
owner of every NFL passing record Drew Brees should be able to carve up this
Washington defense at home.
BYEs: Chicago;
Tampa Bay
Stay tuned for the remaining Week 5: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Sunday!
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