2018 NFL SEASON
Tuesday’s Gone: Week 8 #NFL Game Reviews
Week 8 results: 10-4
(wins); 6-8 (v. spread); 8-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 79-40-2 .664
(wins); 58-60-3 .492 (v. sp); 65-55-1 .542 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
JJ
Watt has stayed healthy so far in 2018 and it's paid dividends for the
Houston Texans, winners of four straight after starting the season 0-3.
Miami Dolphins 4-3 (-7.5) @ Houston Texans 4-3 (44.5): Texans 27-20 Texans 42-23
Thursday, 8:20 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The
Dolphins started the season 3-0 and fools lined up to celebrate a team other
than New England winning the AFC East for the first time in what seems like
decades. Not so fast my friends, Lee Corso would say, because the Dolphins have
since gone 1-3 since then and now sit as the worst team in the NFL by far with
a winning record. Miami ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in both yardage
metrics and points scored; they rank 18th in points allowed (25.3
ppg). The only thing the Dolphins do well is ball hawk; they rank 1st
in INTs, which might come into play against the second-year quarterback Deshaun
Watson, who has been running for his life all season. Speaking of the Texans,
they’ve trended in the opposite direction of the Dolphins, winners of four
straight after starting the season 0-3. The offense has crept towards mediocre
while the defense, ranked 8th in PA (20.6 ppg) and 9th
in total defense, has begun to play like the Texans defenses we’ve come to
know, or better put, have played to their talent level, especially getting
after the quarterback, where they rank 8th in sacks. The Texans are
hot, playing well on defense and are at home. This should be a no-brainer, but
I don’t like spreads of touchdowns or more with unproven teams, especially on
Thursday Nights.
Deshaun Watson threw five touchdown passes
Thursday night, didn’t turn the ball over and wasn’t sacked. That’s a pretty
good way to get your name back in the “top quarterbacks in the league” conversation,
one he was a part of weekly last season before his devastating injury. The Dolphins
kept it close in the first half, 14-10, but the suddenly surging Texans blew
the game open in the second half, outscoring Miami 28-13 and sending the Dolphins
back to their confines of middling in the AFC East.
Philadelphia
Eagles 3-4 (-3) @
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4 (42.5): Eagles 24-17 Eagles 24-18
Sunday, 9:30AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Word on the street is
several defensive players from the Jaguars got arrested at a nightclub in
London after getting into a bar brawl over a $60K bill. If that’s true then
Jacksonville has even less of a chance against the returning Super Bowl
champions, especially with the Eagles fresh off giving up 21 4th
quarter points to the Carolina Panthers to lose 21-17 after leading 17-0 going
into the 4th quarter. In other words, the Eagles could be looking to take out
some frustration on a group of Jaguars clearly licking their wounds. The home
team Jaguars could be in trouble in front of the home crowd on their home pitch
Sunday. That’s a Shahid Khan joke.
My source was correct, the Jaguars did get into an
altercation that led to members of the team being detained. I’m quite sure it
didn’t affect their game status, as three of the involved players were active and one was
already questionable with an injury, but it clearly weighed on the team to some
degree because they lost, and now sit at 3-5, losers of four straight games
after starting the season 3-1 and looking like the new crown of the AFC after
beating New England Week 2. The Eagles look like they’re back on track and have
just traded for WR Golden Tate, which means maybe their season isn’t ruined
after all.
Denver
Broncos 3-4 (+10) @ Kansas City
Chiefs 6-1 (53.5): Chiefs 31-20 Chiefs 30-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny;
low 60s)
Reasons: The
last time the Broncos faced Wonder Boy Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying
Chiefs they made Kansas City look like a normal team…for a half. Then Patrick
went Mahomes on Denver in the altitude at Mile High and proved that the Broncos
AFC West run was indeed over. That game was in Denver. This game is in Kansas
City. I normally don’t like 10-point spreads, but when I do, it’s for the
Chiefs facing Denver at home in the toughest place to play in the NFL.
The
Chiefs led 30-14 in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos scored nine
unanswered 4th quarter points making the game appear much closer in
the box score than the game really was. Patrick Mahomes (303 passing yards; 4
TDs; 1 INT) is from another planet, or at least it would seem that way, but
when Sammy Watkins (8 receptions for 107 receiving yards; 2 TDs) is your fourth
skill option you have a deep team. The Broncos just traded off Demarius Thomas
and it would seem Denver has started to wave the white flag after being swept
by the clear new king of the AFC West.
Cleveland Browns 2-4-1 (+8)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2-1 (42):
Steelers 24-23 Steelers 33-18
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
60% rain; low 50s)
Reasons: The
last time these two teams faced each other they played to an uninspiring tie
opening week, the first of a few ties to start the 2018 NFL season, and not
much has changed for either team since. The Browns have played in a million OT
games and the Steelers have been wading in mediocrity and team drama as Le’Veon
Bell continues to play with their money and their emotions. The weather also
remains the same, although that won’t bother either of these teams. Rookie
Baker Mayfield (6 TDs; 5 INTs) has had an up-and-down season, which will
likely continue Sunday in Pittsburgh, but Mayfield is no punk, and he’d love
the chance to get that elusive win against the Steelers on the road, so those
eight points are almost an insult.
Things are starting to look normal again.
The Browns are now 2-5-1, the Steelers are 4-2-1, the Browns just fired head
coach Hue Jackson instead of terrible play-calling insubordinate Todd Haley,
and rookie quarterback and franchise savior Baker Mayfield has a major injury.
Looks like it’s on to 2019 for the Cleveland Browns, while the Steelers have
seemingly righted the ship, all the while without constant tease and holdout Le’Veon
Bell, as James Connor (24 carries for 146 yards; 2 TDs) has filled in nicely.
Antonio
Brown is as capable of jump kicking his own team as he is his
opponents, but the Steelers aren't the same team without him.
Washington
Football Team 4-2 (-1) @ New York
Giants 1-6 (42): WFT 27-24 WFT 20-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Cloudy; high 50s)
Reasons: The Giants are imploding
before our very eyes and have just traded off the remaining quality players on
defense other than Olivier Vernon, so imagine the disrespect Washington feels
being one-point favorites against these 1-6 Giants after going 3-1 in their
last four against quality competition (GB, NO, CAR & DAL) and leading the NFC
East. Blame it on history, but if we’re talking history, these Giants might be
the worst Giants team in their history.
Holy
sh*t the Giants are bad. It’s not like Washington isn’t good, because they are
certainly one of the better teams in the league, at least statistically, but
how does a team with as much talent as the New York Giants fail to win
even two games in the first half of the season? New York’s defense played well,
anchored by Olivier Vernon and Landon Collins, the only real talent left on the
defensive side of the ball, but they couldn’t contain Adrian Peterson (26
carries for 149 rushing yards; 2 total TDs), who was the difference in the
game.
Seattle
Seahawks 3-3 (+3): @ Detroit Lions 3-3 (49.5): Lions 24-23 Seahawks 28-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The take home message
with these two teams is they’re both better than we thought they’d be before
the season or even a few games into it, yet something has to give. Essentially,
we have one of the better offenses in the league taking on one of the better
defenses in the league, the latter of which is traveling across the country to
play in a 1:00 game. Las Vegas says they’re even, which they aren’t, but under
the transcontinental circumstances they probably are.
Don’t
look now, but the Seahawks aren’t bad. Russell Wilson threw for three
touchdowns, all in the second quarter, which was enough in itself to beat the
Lions Sunday. It didn’t hurt Seattle that Detroit turned the ball over three
times (1 INT; 2 FUM), two by Matt Stafford.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-3 (+4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-3 (54): Bengals 28-27 Bengals
37-34
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 50%
storms; high 50s)
Reasons: Well, it’s not prime
time so the Bengals have a chance. Featured in this match up are two of the
league’s worst defenses, hence the ridiculous 54-point O/U. Of the 13 combined
games these two teams have been featured in nine have breached at least 50
points and the remaining four have had combined scores of 44, 48, 48 and 49
points. I’m fascinated by the surge of points and touchdowns, specifically in
relation to the over/under, in which 50 is a relatively high number. Week 8
features six games with 50+-point O/Us, making that the fifth week in a row
with at least four games with such O/Us. The NFL says the fans want more
points, so tune in for this game if that’s the case. Bring an umbrella.
It
seems like these two teams are involved in a shoot-out every week and Sunday
was no different. Both teams combined for 978 total yards and 71 points, but in
the end, turnovers did the Bucs in. Jameis Winston threw another four INTs
Sunday, his 10th of the year in only four games. In fact, since
Winston’s return Week 4 he has thrown at least two INTs in every game, and
these aren’t the wide receiver’s fault, as Cris Carter claims nearly 60% are.
No these are terrible decisions by former top draft pick and only the second
freshman in NCAA history to win the Heisman Trophy, a quarterback with loads of
talent but not much of a head for the game. Meanwhile the Bengals continue to
confuse everyone, but have as much talent in the league in Joe Mixon (21
carries for 123 yards; 2 TDs) and Tyler Boyd (9 receptions for 138 yards; 1 TD)
to compliment AJ Green (5 receptions for 76 yards; 1 TD), who injured his foot
Sunday.
New York Jets 3-4 (+7.5) @ Chicago Bears 3-3 (45): Bears 27-21 Bears 24-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 80% rain; high
50s)
Reasons: This
game features one of the league’s best defenses (CHI) and good defenses
(NYJ) against offenses that have crept up on us at times in the 2018
season. Combine that with the potentially awful weather and we have a potential
dud here. Don’t necessarily trust me when it comes to the weather, but do you
trust Mitch Trubisky enough to give the Jets over a touchdown? I don’t,
although it’s getting harder not too.
Nothing to see here but your basic
football game played between two accurately described teams. I was, however, wrong
about Mitch Trubisky, who seems to becoming more of a real quarterback by the
week.
It's
been an up-and-down season for the rookie Sam Darnold, the 3rd pick in
the 2018 NFL Draft, but lucky for him Khalil Mack is questionable.
Baltimore
Ravens 4-3 (-2) @
Carolina Panthers 4-2 (44): Ravens
24-21 Panthers 36-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons: Talk
about a clash of titans. This game not only features two of the better defenses
in the NFL, but two of the biggest egos, between Cam Newton’s and the one
possessed by the Baltimore defense and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh. The
Ravens are coming off a devastating loss to the Saints after Justin Tucker
missed the tying PAT, while the Panthers are coming off a miraculous win of
sorts last week after they came back down 17-0 in the 4th quarter
against the Philadelphia Eagles to win 21-17. Seems to me the Ravens are still
hungry while the Panthers might be feeling a little blessed. That’s a bad
combination, one that’ll likely have Sour Cam out for the post-game presser.
Many people could have called the Panthers
winning the game at home, but few would’ve had the courage to say the Ravens
top-ranked defense would give up 36 points. Cam Newton led the team in rushing
again (10 carries for 52 yards; 1 TD) in addition to throwing for 219 yards and
two more touchdowns, essentially single-handily beating the Ravens at home. I
told you about those ego, and Cam’s came to play Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts 2-5 (-3) @ Oakland Raiders 1-5 (50): Colts 28-24 Colts 42-28
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: Only a
matter of time before Chucky trades himself out of Oakland, right?
This game featured five lead changes and
two horrible defenses. By today’s standards the game was great, and the
50-point O/U bore fruit, which I was hesitant about analyzing the game despite
the low ranking of both defenses. The Raiders took the 28-21 lead into the 4th
quarter, but 21 unanswered 4th-quarter points by Colts, mostly on the legs of
Marlon Mack (25 carries for 132 rushing yards; 2 TDs), sealed the victory. Both young(ish) quarterbacks
played well, but neither team is going anywhere anytime soon with their
defenses.
San Francisco 49ers 1-6 (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals 1-6 (42.5):
49ers 24-21 Cardinals
18-15
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Ew.
This was one of the worst football games
I’ve ever seen. Five or so years ago this score would’ve reflected these two
team's stellar defense, but it's 2018 and all this score does is reflect two atrocious
offenses. The bright spot for Arizona besides the win was rookie Josh Rosen leading the Cardinals to a win
in the 4th quarter after being down 15-3, throwing two
touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the process. Maybe Rosen is the next Brett Favre. Baby steps.
Green Bay
Packers 3-2-1 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
3-0 (56.5): Rams 30-20
Rams 29-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Clear; mid-60s)
Reasons: This
is the kind of game where Aaron Rodgers is so miffed about being the largest
underdog of his career that he single-handily takes the Packers and puts them
on his shoulders and wins the game against the Rams. Wait, that’s what Rodgers
does every game, hence the 9.5-point spread. The Packers absolutely suck,
despite their confusing defensive metrics, which make them look good on paper.
No, Green Bay is a one-dimensional team in that Rodgers is their one dimension,
assisted by All-Pro wide out Davante Adams. The Rams, conversely, are as far
from one-dimensional as a team could get, although one could argue the Rams are
truly one-dimension – they line up and smash you in the mouth with an All-Pro
offensive line and an All-Pro running back in Todd Gurley, who is my mid-season
candidate for runaway MVP. Las Vegas doesn’t get much wrong, so if they say the
Packers suck relative to the Rams, I believe it.
Of course Aaron Rodgers was so humiliated
by his underdog status and the 9.5 point spread that he came out and made sure any of us taking the Rams to cover suffered. Alas, Ty Montgomery fumbled a late 4th quarter kickoff
return, squabbling away any chance for Rodgers to be the hero again and beat
the Rams, not just cover. Montgomery was traded 72 hours later.
Drew Brees quietly has the New Orleans Saints sitting at 5-1 in the midst of another MVP-caliber season..err...career.
New
Orleans Saints 5-1 (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings
4-2-1 (52.5): Vikings
28-27 Saints 30-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis,
MN (Weather: Clear; high 30s Err, Indoors)
Reasons: The
Vikings seem to have righted their war ship just as the seas got really rough,
which is good considering the best team in the NFL still under the radar sails
into Minneapolis Sunday Night for the Game of the Week and Drew Brees is on a
mission. Let’s see what Everson Griffen has to say about Brees staying lit in
Minneapolis, because he’s back on the team after dealing with mental health issues,
and it was pretty clear the Vikings weren’t the same team without him. They
could be without Xavier Rhodes Sunday night, which could be a huge problem, but
if Rhodes is a go I wouldn’t expect the Saints to be firing on all cylinders in
the chill like they have been all season indoors or in great weather and
winning their fourth road game in five weeks.
If I told you Drew Brees threw for only 120
yards against the Vikings, would you give them any chance of winning? Probably not, but they
did, despite being outgained, out-possessed and out "first-downed". The problem is
always turnovers, and a key Adam Thielen fumble was returned 45 yards for
a touchdown by PJ Williams, which made a close 20-13 game with the Vikings
matriculating a 27-13 blowout that Minnesota couldn’t recover from. I'm also not really sure why I've always thought the Vikings played in an open stadium, a la Dallas. Maybe if people read my website that mistake would've been pointed out long before my cousin did. Thanks, Cousin Pauli. By the way, he doesn't read my site either, it just came up in conversation.
New England Patriots 5-2 (-14) @
Buffalo Bills 2-5 (44.5): Patriots 31-16 Patriots 25-6
Monday, 8:15
PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Reasons: Here
we go again, the Bills and Patriots involved in spreads of two or more
touchdowns. I hate touching these games, because it seems so obvious to not
pick a team favored by egregious amounts of points, as the Bills have proved
already on the road this season, and it would be an especially bad idea to bet
those points against the home team…right? Well, every time I bet against the
Patriots in similar spreads I get burned. The Patriots are on fire offensively
and the Bills couldn’t score when their quarterback situation wasn’t a
nightmare, so all signs point to the Patriots destroying the Bills in Buffalo.
Then you have to consider the history of these two teams and the fluky past
they have when it comes to home and away match ups between the Bills and
Patriots. Normally I’d never pick the Patriots to cover 14 points at Buffalo at
any point in the season, but these particular Bills at this particular point in
the season are particularly bad.
It was the Stephen show for the first
three quarters, with Gostkwoski (4) and Huaschka (2) trading field goals until
the 4th quarter when James White scampered into the end zone for a
1-yard touchdown run. Devin McCourty then secured the cover with a pick-6, the
Patriots first defensive touchdown in 40 games. In the end they were who we
thought they were.
BYEs: Atlanta;
Dallas; Tennessee; Los Angeles Chargers
Stay tuned for Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)coming Thursday & Sunday!
