2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 8:
14-1 .933 (WINS); 8-6-1 .571 (ATS); 9-5 .643 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
81-39-1 .675 (WINS); 66-52-2 .559 (ATS); 68-49-3
.618 (O/U)
WEEK 8 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-2-1 (.500)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
23-15-2 (.605)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
San
Francisco 49ers
7-0
(-10)
@ Arizona Cardinals 3-4-1
(43): 49ers 31-13
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: About the only disadvantage the 49ers have is three fewer hours rest and a short flight to Phoenix. Besides that, Cardinals head coach Cliff Kingsbury is about to see what the true future of the NFL looks like, because he'll be across the field suffering it. The San Fransisco 49ers are arguably the best team in the NFL. The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, are the 29th-ranked defense, and only gain 5.7 net yards per attempt in the air. Arizona could also be down to their 3rd-string RB after losing Chase Edmonds Sunday. Edmonds was the Cardinals only chance of any potential mismatches, and even that would've been a stretch. It's about time people recognize these 49ers as the best team in the NFL, not that the Cardinals are the barometer by which to be measured. Don't be fooled by talk of a short-week home field bounce-back game for the Cardinals, the 49ers are for real and their trip is short.
Sunday,
9:30
AM,
Wembley
Stadium, London,
England
(Weather:
50%
rain;
high 50s)
Keys: This
game comes down to the Texans revamped offensive line protecting
Deshaun Watson long enough for him to get the ball to his various
weapons. That
could be hard against Calais
Campbell and the Jaguars
pass
rush,
4th
in the league in sacks, but
Houston's new addition Laramy Tunsil is the second-rated pass protecting tackle
in the league. Speaking of weapons, Jaguars DJ Chark is quietly
having an All-Pro season as the league’s 5th-rated WR according to Pro Football Focus. These
teams also have two of the best running games in the NFL, but only
the Texans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Look for Houston to give Watson just enough time to take advantage of their
mismatches with the Jaguars secondary.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: Everyone
outside of Buffalo have expected the Bills to come back down to Earth any
week and assumed it started with the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.
Before you go assuming the Pigskins are the perfect bounce back game,
the Bills 24th-ranked scoring offense might even
have
trouble scoring points against the Pigskins
19th-ranked scoring defense. On offense Washington is
going to
have to figure
it out,
or
else
rely
on
catastrophic TOs, because the Pigskins have one
of the three worst offenses
in the NFL
and the Bills only allow 17.4 ppg. I’m
not sure the Bills offense is good enough to lay 9.5 on any team in the NFL, but the win is a lock as the Bills need to get on
track to stay in the playoff race.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: Just
to give you an idea of how close these two teams are, according to
Pro Football Reference’s SRS metric (SOS:point
differential)
the Vikings are ranked 4th in the NFL and the Chiefs are ranked 5th.
In a healthy world this would be the Chiefs high-powered offense(2nd
passing; 4th
points; 5th
yards)
at Arrowhead hosting arguably the best team in the NFL (Vikings
O: 10th
points & 3rd
yards; Vikings D: 3rd
points allowed & 5th
yards allowed).
It’s not a healthy world, however, and Patrick Mahomes is doubtful, which
makes things very difficult for Kansas City. Even
if Mahomes played I’d be incline to pick the Vikings, because,
among other things, the Chiefs can’t stop the run and Dalvin Cook
and the Vikings run all over everyone (160
rush ypg). But the Chiefs can’t lose four straight home games, can
they?
It's always best when Bag Man could be either team's fan.
New
York Jets
1-6
(-3)
@ Miami Dolphins 0-7
(40.5):
Jets
24-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
40%
storms; low 80s)
Keys: These
are the type of games that aren’t even worth writing about because
no one in their right mind is going to bet on it, but here we go. The
only thing that separates these terrible teams is the Jets defense
allows
7.4
fewer
points
allowed per game
on
defense and scores 0.1 ppg more on offense (both
teams average 11 ppg).
If Sam Darnold can cut out the TOs the Jets should be able to help
their defense keep those
7.4 points off the board and cover easily.
Chicago
Bears
3-4
(+6.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 4-4
(47.5):
Eagles
24-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Sunny;
high 50s)
Keys: It
wasn’t long ago when the Bears were Super Bowl LIV contenders, their
defense was historically great and Mitchell Trubisky was a sleeper
MVP candidate. Well, then the Bears played some games. Now those same
Bears have lost three straight, all
at home, on
their way to a losing record, the defense is carrying the entire load
and Trubisky is
the
lowest rated QB in the NFL with
over 200 snaps according
to Pro Football Focus; only Josh Rosen grades
lower on
only 56% of the snaps (Trubisky
has 344 snaps).
The Eagles haven’t fared much better, but the situation at QB is
the polar opposite, as Carson Wentz is the 3rd-rated QB in
the league by
the same metrics. Any
short comings in Philadelphia can be attributed to attitude and
attrition, where most of the issues in Chicago are at QB and don’t
seem fixable. Look for the Eagles to remain on track at home, while
the Bears stare blankly back at the 2017 NFL Draft board.
*Indianapolis
Colts 5-2 (+1)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-4
(43):
Colts
23-21
Keys: Every
game the Colts have been involved in has been a one-possession game. The
same applies
to
the Steelers in four of their seven games. I
suppose it applies to a lot of teams in a parody-driven league, but
the Colts bring it to another level. Every
game?
This is tale of two teams on both ends of mediocre. The Colts are a
tweak away from being a serious contender; the Steelers are already
there defensively, but have no offense to speak of. Speaking
of the defense, the Steelers strengths lie on the defensive line; it
just so happens the Colts offensive line is elite. There’s a reason
the opening lines ran from -1 to PK to +1: These teams match up well
and
their point differentials are only separated by 0.3 ppg.
In
this particular game, the
Steelers home field advantage is negated by the Colts edge
in talent.
Besides,
the Steelers are almost always home. I’ve
been riding the Colts for most of the season and I’m not stopping
now. * = IND COVER
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Sunny;
high 50s)
Keys: The
Titans went to Ryan Tannehill in
the middle of the game against the Broncos three
weeks ago and
he hasn’t lost a start since (2-0).
In fact, besides the Week 1 43-point outburst against what would
become the same old Cleveland Browns, the Titans averaged 13.8 ppg
under Marcus Mariota; Tennessee
averages 25 ppg under Tannehill. If the Titans could consistently
score 25 ppg they’d be hard to beat considering their defense is
ranked in the top-10
in points allowed (4th),
yards allowed (9th)
and forced TO (9th).
The Panthers are ball hawks, too, ranking 3rd
in the NFL in takeaways, but statistically the Panthers look like the
Titans would if you averaged Tennessee’s offense and defensive
stats together.
So
what gives with Carolina laying four points? For starters, the Titans
are on the road and don’t have MVP-candidate Christian McCaffery,
but the spread is more a reflection the level of competition as the
Panthers have faced a much tougher schedule.
Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, which is custom in Detroit.
Detroit
Lions
3-3-1
(+2)
@
Oakland Raiders 3-4
*(50.5):
Raiders
28-27
Sunday, 4:05
PM,
Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather:
Sunny;
low 70s)
Keys:
The
Lions rush for about the same amount of yards (96.9
ypg)
the Raiders give up (92.9
ypg),
and vice versa. The problem is the Raiders rush for over 130 ypg, so
the Lions could have
their hands full if they can’t get off to a quick start or they
don’t score every time they have the ball. That might not be
difficult because the Raiders defense is atrocious and
the Lions have high quality talent at the skill positions led by
Matthew Stafford. The
Lions defense is
atrocious, too,
hence the 50.5-point game total. At least the Raiders play the run
well, and the Lions don’t do anything well on defense, so Oakland
should be able to control the clock with
rookie sensation Josh Jacobs,
and eventually the game. * = OVER
*Tampa
Bay Buccaneers
2-5
(+6.5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 6-2
(51.5):
Seahawks
24-23
Sunday,
4:05
PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Mostly cloudy; mid-50s)
Keys: These
are two interesting teams. According to Pro Football Reference, using
point differential analytics, the overachieving
Seahawks
should be 4-4 and the underachieving
Buccaneers
should be 3-4. Take
home message: The Seahawks have been lucky. Perhaps until now. The
loss of Seahawks center Justin Britt is huge, but
the name of this game is TOs.
The
Buccaneers are 30th
in the league in TOs thanks to Jameis Winston, and the Seahawks are
5th
in takeaways. The Seahawks are also 5th
in TOs, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Buccaneers, ranked
7th
in takeaways themselves, can get Seattle to cough it up. Britt’s
absence comes into play most
there,
besides weakening
an already weak offensive line. If
Winston has his contacts in and throws it to the guys white and red
he’ll be connecting with arguably the best WR corps in the NFL; if
he throws it to the Seahawks it won’t matter how many offensive
lineman Seattle loses. Speaking of WR, Josh Gordon just went from MA to WA, where the hash flows a little heavier. Good luck, Flash. * = TB COVER
Keys: The
Browns are two losses away from being on to 2020, because they’re
the 12th
seed in the AFC now and 2.5 games back from the 8th
seed. Even one more loss and a win by the Jacksonville
Jaguars
and Tennessee
Titans
would put them 3.5 games back with only eight games remaining. The
Broncos seem to be in the same mess, but a bounce here and there and
Denver might be 5-3. Besides, most of Denver’s issues can be
attributed to head coach Vic Fangio’s really
old coaching style and Joe Flacco. It’s unfortunate, because the
Broncos misfortunes have sullied and otherwise amazing performance by
the defense so far this season (8th
points allowed; 4th
yards allowed).
The bottom line is the Browns are backed against a wall and the
Broncos had already given up when they traded Emmanuel Sanders, but
now Joe Flacco is on the IR. Wait, is that a bad thing?
*Green
Bay Packers 7-1
(-3.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 3-5
(47):
Packers
28-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM
Stub Hub
Field, Carson, CA (Weather:
Sunny; high
70s)
Keys:
The
Chargers are one of the more frustrating teams in the NFL and have
been for quite some time. Besieged by major injuries over the past
few years, things got worse when the Chargers relocated to Los
Angeles by way of Carson, CA, where they’ve toiled in obscurity for the
past few seasons. You might not think it’s any big deal, but
imagine not having a home for a season? Now imagine several
seasons. The
Packers are literally the opposite, having resided in the Green Bay
area since the inception of the NFL 100 years ago. The fans “own”
the team and would fill Lambeau Field if the Packers were 1-7. Aaron
Rodgers kind of looks like his MVP version again,
and
mostly without Davante Adams, who could be back this week. You could
attribute that to the youthful injection of new head coach Matt
LaFleur or the best
running game and
defense the Packers have had in years, with
the Smith Bros. setting the edges.
Speaking
of edges, the Packers great tackles (David
Bakhtiari & Bryan Bulaga) bookend an offensive line that likely won’t let Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram get much done. * = GB COVER
New
England Patriots
8-0
(-3.5)
@ Baltimore Ravens 5-2
(45):
Patriots
27-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather:
Clear;
high
30s)
Keys: I’m
not sure there’s been a better match up yet in 2019. The Patriots
come in with the top defense in the NFL (1st
points & yards allowed and takeaways),
in history as a matter of fact, and if they beat the Ravens in
Baltimore the well-deserved chatter of a weak first-half schedule
will begin to subside. That’s because the Ravens are the 2nd-ranked
offense (points
& yards allowed)
and rank 5th
in TOs. The
Patriots offense has struggled mightily, despite being the top
scoring team in the NFL, but luckily for New England these
Ravens are nothing on defense like the Patriots have faced in the past.
Baltimore still ranks 16th
in points and yards allowed, and 3rd
in rush yards allowed, meaning Tom Brady is going to have to step
back and throw it at some point. That shouldn’t be an issue,
because the Ravens don’t get after the QB. The Patriots do (1st
sacks),
however, but they need to worry more about containing Lamar Jackson than
sacking him. Therein lies the key: Lamar Jackson. This is the Ravens
chance to prove they’re the class of the AFC at home, but the
Patriots are 6-2 ATS this season, and one of those losses includes a
back door cover attained via blocked punt return for a TD and a
Jarrett Stidham pick-six in mop up duty. Love ‘em or hate ‘em,
the Patriots rake. Go with Bill Belichick returning home against the
young QB, where mobility is nullified by a historically-great
defense.
Monday,
8:15
PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Clear;
low 40s)
Keys: The
Giants have now lost two one-possession games in a row, and one could
argue pretty convincingly the Giants could be 4-4. If
someone told you at mid-season the Giants would be a half game behind
the Cowboys in the loss column led by Daniel Jones you’d think they
were crazy. Maybe I am for diving so deep into this hypothetical. The
point is don’t be fooled by these team’s records or by what
people have told you about either of these teams. The Giants are
better than you think they are and the Cowboys are worse. Dallas' entire offensive line is questionable, too. I'm not kidding. The
Cowboys are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Giants, and have scored
30+ points in four of those contests. Dallas averages 27.1 ppg (7th)
this season and that includes a recent three-game losing streak in which they
only averaged 22 ppg. The
Giants have the talent on offense to catch an underwhelming Cowboys
defense off guard, but probably only on the order of covering. * = NYG COVER
Week 9 Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 9: #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
