2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 15 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 14 results: 11-5 (WINS); 8-8 (ATS); 10-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 136-70-2 .660 (WINS); 98-103-7 .488 (ATS); 112-93-3
.546 (O/U)
Note/Key
(when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
Andy Reid has the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC driver's seat heading into the playoffs, which can only mean one thing: A probable early exit from the playoffs.
Los
Angeles Chargers 10-3 (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 11-2 (56.5): Chiefs 28-27
Thursday, 8:20 PM,
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Wintry mix; high 30s)
Reasons: Assuming the weather predictions hold
true Kansas City could have two decided advantages heading into Thursday night’s
game, because let’s be honest, whether the Chargers hail from San Diego or Los
Angeles or somewhere near those places in a town called Carson, the Chargers
are not built for bad weather. To make matters worse, no team is built to play
in Kansas City, where the Chiefs home crowd will make things miserable for
Phillip Rivers (29 TDs; 6 INTs),
especially if Melvin Gordon can’t go, because his back-up Austin Eckler is out
for the game. The Chiefs are well known by now, with MVP candidate and virtual
rookie Patrick Mahomes throwing 43 TDs with two games remaining, and
now that Justin Houston is back a historically bad defense suddenly seems
legit, at least as far as pressuring the quarterback goes (2nd sacks). If this game were in Fresno or Riverside or
even Carson I’d be inclined to pick the Chargers to win as Los Angeles dominates
both sides of the ball, but the game is at Arrowhead with a chance for wintry weather,
meaning the Chargers chances are as good as hitting the over.
Houston
Texans 9-4 (-6.5) @ New York Jets 4-9 (42.5): Texans 24-20
Saturday, 4:30 PM,
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Rain; mid-40s)
Reasons: The Jets season is over, but the
Texans’ season isn’t and Houston missed an opportunity to win the division last
week by beating the Indianapolis Colts and owning the 2-0 head-to-head tie-breaker
(in the event both teams ended the season 10-6). What a perfect way to get back
on track, facing a Jets team ranked in the lower third of the league in total
offense and defense, points scored and allowed, sacks, turnover ratio and offensive
penalty yards. The Texans might struggle in the rain on the road, so maybe the
6.5 point is a bad idea, but a win is inevitable.
Cleveland Browns 5-7-1 (+4)
@ Denver Broncos 6-7 (44.5): Broncos 24-23
Saturday, 8:20 PM,
Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 30s)
Reasons:
Believe
it or not this game has playoff implications. Yes, the Cleveland Browns are
still relevant in Week 15; both teams are mathematically still in the so-called
“playoff hunt”, and even more astonishing is the Browns are the team with a chance
at winning the division, although the odds of that are, well, much better than
you think. Cleveland could win the AFC North through one of several complicated
situations considering they tied and lost to the Steelers and beat the Ravens
with a Week 17 match up looming, but the Browns should just focus on the
Broncos. The fact remains Mile High Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play, and not
just because of the altitude; it’s because the crowd comes with the same energy
as the Arrowhead crowds and have been doing it a lot longer than the CenturyLink
crowds. These teams match up well, right up to Baker Mayfield’s rookie status
matching Case Keenum’s underwhelming status, so what we have here is a true “Who
wants it more” game between two teams that will likely both be home by Week 18.
Arizona
Cardinals 3-10 (+10) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (44): Falcons 24-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: This game has zero playoff
implications. Perhaps these teams become relevant in Weeks 16 a/o 17 as spoilers.
The Green Bay Packers season is on the line Sunday, and for Green Bay to have any chance against the Chicago Bears Aaron Rodgers will have to play as well as he did in their Week 1 match up.
Green Bay Packers 5-7-1 (+5)
@ Chicago Bears 9-4 (46.5): Bears 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons:
Since
Aaron Rodgers became the Packers starting quarterback in 2008 Green Bay has only
lost to the Bears four times. In 23 games the Bears have won four, including a
playoff game in 2011, a ridiculous recent domination over a division rival in
which Sunday will be the 198th meeting between the two teams (Green Bay leads the all-time series 94-97-6,
including the playoffs). Two of those four wins have come at Green Bay, but
the last time the Bears won in Green Bay was in 2015 and the Bears haven’t
beaten them since, anywhere. We all remember the most recent match up, that
stellar Week 1 performance from Rodgers, in which he led the Packers from down
23-0 in the 4th quarter to win 24-23. Those days are likely gone.
Chicago has improved everywhere since that Week 1 matchup and the Packers are
reeling, having fired head coach Mike McCarthy as well as a few assistants.
Rodgers is sure to conjure up some old demons, as he has the flair for the
dramatic, but these Bears are on a mission and flying high after a defensive
domination of the Los Angeles Rams. Many expect a Chicago letdown, but that’s
ridiculous considering these two team’s histories. Green Bay’s only chance,
once again, remains Aaron Rodgers.
Detroit
Lions 5-8 (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 4-9
(38): Bills 23-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Fog; high 30s)
Reasons: This game has zero playoff
implications. Perhaps these teams become relevant in Weeks 16 a/o 17 as
spoilers.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 5-8 (+8.5) @
Baltimore Ravens 7-6 (47.5): Ravens 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Rain;
low 40s)
Reasons:
The
Joe Flacco era is over in Baltimore, at least in terms of him being the
starting quarterback, as the Ravens have given the nod to rookie Lamar Jackson
as they make a desperate push for the playoffs, which somehow includes a
possible division title considering how terrible the AFC North has become.
Perspective: The Cleveland Browns could win the division. Despite entering the
game with an underwhelming combined 13-14 record, this game actually features
the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense (18.5
ppg) in the Ravens against the Buc’s 2nd-ranked total offense
and 10th-ranked scoring offense (25.5
ppg). It’s not as if the Ravens are offensively-inept, averaging nearly 25
ppg (13th), but the Bucs certainly
are defensively, ranking 27th in total defense and 30th
in scoring defense (29.5 ppg). In other
words, a hungry Ravens team playing at home with the best defense in the league
should be trouble for the Bucs, who are 1-5 on the road.
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 50s)
Reasons:
This
game has zero playoff implications. Perhaps these teams become relevant in
Weeks 16 a/o 17 as spoilers.
One of the New York Giants two superstars will be sidelined Sunday, making life slightly more difficult for the other star.
Tennessee Titans 7-6 (+3) @ New York Giants 5-8 (43.5): Giants 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford,
NJ (Weather: Rain; high 30s)
Reasons: Imagine how embarrassed the Titans
have to be being three-point underdogs to the 5-8 Giants without Odell Beckham
Jr.? I’m sure by the time the news hits the airwaves regarding OBJ’s absence Las
Vegas will have adjusted the point spread based on incoming money and the line
will be closer to one point, but the fact the Giants are favored at all, even
at MetLife Stadium, is interesting. Perhaps it’s because Tennessee recently
joined the exclusive club of two NFL teams with winning records with negative
point differentials (Minnesota has a
negative point differential with a .500 record). Losing OBJ for the game
makes New York even more one-dimensional, as in Saquonensional, but even one
dude might be enough to beat a Titans offense that can’t even score 20 ppg (19.3 ppg, 27th).
Miami
Dolphins 7-6 (+9.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 6-6-1 (44): Vikings 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Remember those other two teams I
talked about being in the club with the Tennessee Titans as winning teams with
negative point differentials? Well, they’re both featured in this game. The
Dolphins shouldn’t have a winning record considering their fluke win over the
New England Patriots last week, but they do, despite owning a -4.2 ppg differential,
by far the worst in the NFL. The Vikings are technically a .500 team, but they
still own a -0.2 ppg differential, despite being loaded with talent on both
sides of the ball. Both of these teams are still in the “playoff hunt”, but neither
team will be there in January.
Washington Football 6-7 (+8.5) @
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 (36): Jaguars 20-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium,
Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons: This game has playoff implications because
technically Washington has a chance at winning the NFC East. Everyone in the
world knows that’s not going to happen. The Jaguars aren’t even worth talking
about.
Dallas Cowboys 8-5 (+3) @ Indianapolis
Colts 7-6 (47): Colts 26-24
Sunday, 1:00PM,
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in
the NFL, winners of five straight games and coming back from the dead after sitting
at 3-5 at the mid-season point, with the addition of Amari Cooper being the
obvious catalyst for the Cowboys recent success. The Colts were the hot team
not too long ago, having won five straight games of their own before division rival
Jacksonville put the kibosh on that. The Colts have been streaky all year, but
in chunks, and quickly got back to winning last week by ending the Houston
Texans nine-game winning streak, so clearly the Colts showed not only the
mental fortitude of a playoff team, but showed they can play with the big dogs,
of which Dallas has suddenly become. It’s the formerly elusive late-season “top-four
defense (DAL: 2nd scoring; 4th
total) versus top-eight offense (IND:
8th-ranked total & scoring)” match-up, which has become more
common in recent years, but in the end this game will come down to which team
can actually hold serve on 3rd down and whether the Cowboys stellar
linebacking crew can contain Eric Ebron, who has 12 TDs in 13 games with the
Colts after scoring just 11 TDs in his previous 56 NFL games.
Russell Wilson is playing as well as he ever has and the Seattle Seahawks are primed for another playoff run.
Seattle Seahawks 8-5 (-5.5) @ San Francisco
49ers 3-10 (44.5): Seahawks 27-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara,
CA (Weather: Heavy rain; low 60s)
Reasons: A month ago the Seahawks had lost a close game
to the Los Angeles Rams in which they had a chance to win, and suddenly Seattle
found themselves 4-5 and scrambling to find an identity that involved both
their quality defense and an offense led by Russell Wilson, a dark horse MVP
candidate. Fast forward to mid-December and the Seahawks have won four straight
and now own the 6th-ranked scoring defense (20.5 ppg) and 9th-ranked scoring offense (26.2 ppg); Wilson remains a dark horse
MVP candidate (29 TDs; 6 INTs). The
49ers, well, they should serve as a perfect springboard towards a Seahawks Wild
Card berth.
New England
Patriots 9-4 (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
Steelers 7-5-1 (49.5): Patriots 28-27
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Rain; low 40s)
Reasons: The most
overstated point regarding this game is the Patriots dominance over the Steelers
in recent years. I’m a regression-to-the-mean type guy, and what we have here
are two desperate teams. The Steelers have lost three straight games and
suddenly find themselves fighting for their playoff lives and maybe even their
jobs. The Patriots lost a lateral heart-breaker to the Miami Dolphins last week
and find themselves 2-2 in a time of year when they dominate, while Tom Brady’s
play has been just underwhelming enough to spark debates about his longevity
again. Add this to the fact the Patriots can’t afford to lose home field
advantage at this point in Brady’s career and the Patriots suddenly become
desperate themselves. The truth is these teams are pretty evenly-matched, with
nearly identical scoring averages (NE:
28.0-22.5; PIT: 28.2-23.5), but the game comes down to whether Brady can
escape Pittsburgh’s pressure (PIT 1st
sacks) and/or Ben Roethlisberger can avoid turning the ball over (NE: 5th INTs & 10th
TO ratio; PIT: 27th TO ratio).
Philadelphia
Eagles 6-7 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 11-2 (54): Rams 30-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Los Angeles
Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Cloudy; mid-50s)
Reasons: The Rams are looking to bounce
back after their worst game of the season losing 15-6 to the Bears in Chicago,
while the Eagles are just looking to get this season over with. It was
announced this week Carson Wentz would miss the remainder of the season with
what could be a broken back. Ask Tony
Romo how that went. Philadelphia is in danger of becoming the first team since the
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have a losing record following a Super Bowl-winning
season; I predicted the Eagles would go 6-10, so I’ve been patting myself on
the back for weeks, but they need to win at least two more games or risk joining
the Bucs in that infamous post-2000 club. Let’s be honest, this nose dive
started when head coach Doug Pederson went on an off-season book tour for a
book titled “Fearless”. You’re basically asking for it at that point.
New
Orleans Saints 11-2 (-7) @
Carolina Panthers 6-7 (54): Saints 28-23
Monday, 8:15 PM,
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Clear; high 30s)
Reasons: MVP-candidate Drew Brees (35 total TDs; 4 INTs) and the Saints
haven’t quite looked the same the past two weeks, but Carolina hasn’t looked
the same for over a month, specifically Cam Newton, who has thrown eight of his
12 INTs in the past four weeks over the Panthers five-game losing streak. Cam
Newton is clearly not 100%. The Panthers play well at home (5-1), but the Saints play well on the
road (6-1), and the Panthers defense
is nothing like in years past, while the Saints could say the same about themselves,
but in a positive context (3rd
sacks; 10th scoring defense: 21.8 ppg). Carolina will also be
without kicker Graham Gano, which has huge implications. The Saints have
already won the NFC South, but the only let down I see happening here is for
people that take the Saints and the points, as pride is about the only thing
Carolina is playing for at this point.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 15 #NFL Game Reviews coming Tuesday!
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