This is a website dedicated to pro football, football betting & Phish. All website content property of Faulkner Media unless otherwise stated.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Tuesday's Gone: Week 13 #NFL Game Reviews

2018 NFL SEASON

Tuesday's Gone: Week 13  #NFL Game Reviews

Week 13 results: 10-6 (wins); 8-7-1 (v. spread); 7-9 (O/U)

Season totals: 125-65-2 .658 (wins); 90-95-7 .487 (v. sp); 102-87-3 .540 (O/U)



Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).



Drew Brees is aiming for the record books this season, and the Saints defense is finally playing at a high level.


New Orleans Saints 10-1 (-7) @ Dallas Cowboys 6-5 (52): Saints 34-24 Cowboys 13-10

Thursday, 8:20 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: The Saints are the best team in the NFL, hands down. The offense speaks for itself (37.2 ppg), but it’s the top-ranked run defense that’s turning heads, especially the past three weeks (12.7 ppg allowed) after allowing 35 points Week 9 to the Los Angeles Rams. New Orleans is also 5-0 on the road this season, scoring just a point under their season scoring average at 36.2 ppg. The Cowboys just happen to play indoors, for all intents and purposes, so the Saints should feel right at home. The Cowboys are no slouches themselves, especially at home (4-1), for once, and are winners of three straight games and flying high after the acquisition of Amari Cooper. His presence has finally opened up the offense and allowed the run game to explode. It’s the Cowboys 7th-ranked total defense that has really kept Dallas in most games, however, allowing the 3rd-fewest points in the NFL (19.4 ppg). That defense will be tested on Thursday night, and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence put up plenty of bulletin board material with his profanity-laced tirade about beating New Orleans. The Saints are just the better team, perhaps even on the defensive side of the ball, because if any team can stifle Ezekiel Elliot, it’s the Saints, and despite how good the Cowboys defense has been, the Saints are a record-breaking type of offense. Saints should win and cover easily. 

It was a defensive battle for the ages in a potential preview of the NFC playoffs, and Dallas kept Drew Brees to one of his worst games of his distinguished career (127 passing yards; 1 TD; 1 INT). It is worth noting the Cowboys led 13-0 in the first half, before the Saints scored 10 unanswered 3rd quarter points, and, well, that's where it ends. 

Baltimore Ravens 6-5 (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-7 (48): Ravens 24-21 Ravens 26-16

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Ravens are 2-0 (after losing three straight) since going with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but Baltimore doesn’t even know who they’re starting Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for a team fighting for their playoff lives. It also doesn’t help when you’re on the road facing Matt Ryan and the Falcons stellar wide receivers. Having said that, the Ravens are the top-ranked defense across the board so those Falcons might stay grounded and lay another egg. 

The Falcons gained 131 total yards at home. Let that sink in.


Chicago Bears 8-3 (-4) @ New York Giants 3-8 (44.5): Bears 23-20 Giants 30-27 OT


Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Rain; high 50s)

Reasons: The Bears might be without quarterback Mitch Trubisky again Sunday and are still 4-point favorites on the road, which tells you as much about the Giants being terrible as it does about the Bears defense (7th sacks; 4th total defense; 3rd scoring defense; 2nd turnover ratio; 1st INT). The weather could be bad, which might stall the Giants passing game, otherwise New York is playing for their lives. If only their defense could take advantage of a backup quarterback. 

Six minutes into the 4th quarter the Giants led 24-14 with the aid of three Bears TOs, but then Chicago scored 10 unanswered points in the final 1:45, including a trick play TD pass from Tarik Cohen to Anthony Miller as time expired. The Giants ultimately won in OT, making both the NFC East and North much more interesting.


Buffalo Bills 4-7 (+4) @ Miami Dolphins 5-6 (40): Dolphins 21*-20 Dolphins 21*-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20% storms; low 80s)

Reasons: The Bills have the second worst offense in the league in both total offense and scoring (14.6 ppg), but have pretty good defense. The Dolphins are statistically terrible at everything except intercepting the ball (1st), as I say every week, but those INTs help the Dolphins with their turnover ratio (7th). The Bills have also won two-straight, although to weak competition (NYJ; JAX), while the Dolphins have lost two-straight, although to great competition (GB; IND). The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives so I suppose they get the nod.

The Bills led 17-14 in the 4th quarter before a Buffalo taunting penalty from that go-ahead TD helped set up the Dolphins game-winning TD.
 


 Von Miller will be looking for Andy Dalton Sunday, but he won't find him. 


Denver Broncos 5-6 (-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-6 (45): Broncos 27-24 Broncos 24-10

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: Things aren’t looking good for the Bengals, whose offense seems to be getting worse by the week and is beginning to look like their league-worst defense (32nd total defense & scoring defense). Now that Andy Dalton is gone, laugh if you want, but it’s over. The Broncos have life and a decent team to begin with.

The Bengals decided to lay over and die Sunday, destroying my 4-team parlay when Cincinnati couldn't even manage to cover a measly six points at home against a Broncos team that's suddenly in the playoff picture. 


Los Angeles Rams 10-1 (-10) @ Detroit Lions 4-7 (55.5): Rams 31-20 Rams 30-16

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Both of these teams are coming off long periods of rest, the Rams having their bye Week 12 and the Lions having played Thanksgiving, but only one of these teams is loaded with talent and good.  

The Lions were only down 16-13 in the 4th quarter and were marching down the field when Aaron Donald (2 sacks; 4 QB hits; 5 TFL) forced a Matt Stafford fumble, giving Todd Gurley (23 carries; 132 rushing yard) a short field to make it 23-13 in the blink of an eye. The Lions managed another FG, but another Gurley TD 60 seconds later sealed the cover for the Rams.

Indianapolis Colts 6-5 (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-8 (47): Colts 26-20 Jaguars 6-0
 
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Chance of rain; low 80s)

Reasons: The Colts have won five straight, but only two of those games have been close and one was against the division rival Jaguars, and that was in Indianapolis. Having said that, the Colts are still four-point favorites on the road, which tells us Jacksonville is in a tailspin of epic proportions. The Jaguars are without Leonard Fournette (SUS), and can’t score points anyway, while the Colts are averaging nearly 30 ppg, including 36 ppg during their five-game win streak. 

The Jaguars were all over Andrew Luck and the Colts receivers all day and played the physical brand of football they'd become known for. Too little, too late, however, as the Jaguars season is likely over. The Colts remain alive.



Cleveland Browns 4-6-1 (+6) @ Houston Texans 8-3 (47): Texans 24-21 Texans 29-16

Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Texans have won eight-straight games after starting 0-3 and suddenly they do everything well to exceptionally well, like sacking the quarterback (7th), for instance. The talent is finally living up to the hype and JJ Watt’s health has remained intact, so the Texans have a top-10 defense again to compliment an offense that can be explosive at times, as in last week’s game against the Titans stellar defense. The Browns broke several embarrassing streaks last week and have turned a new leaf, but their best chance Sunday is probably to cover. 

Baker Mayfield threw three INTs and the Texans won their franchise-record 9th straight game as Houston dominated on both sides of the ball, despite not registering a sack, and extended their AFC South lead to three games with the Indianapolis Colts loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. 


 Time to work that magic that everyone seems to think you possess, Aaron Rodgers.


Arizona Cardinals 2-9 (+14) @ Green Bay Packers 4-6-1 (44.5): Packers 24-13 Cardinals 20-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Wintry mix; low 30s) 

Reasons: The Cardinals haven’t been anywhere cold and wet in probably a year and the Packers are as desperate as they’ve ever been. I don’t give the Cardinals any shot at winning, but I hate 14-point spreads. In this case, however, it’s only because of the weather. 

Rookie Josh Rosen (11-26 for 149 passing yards) and the Cardinals went to Green Bay in the snow and beat the Packers. Think about the level to which Green Bay has sunk, especially considering the Packers are statistically better than their record would suggest and the fact they have Aaron Rodgers, which suddenly doesn't seem to mean as much as it used to, regardless of his ridiculous TD:INT ratio this season. Things have become so bad in Green Bay they fired Mike McCarthy following the game with four games still remaining, which sends a clear message. Whether Rodgers is the one who ultimately sent it is a question worth asking, but McCarthy's departure fixes nothing for Green Bay in today's NFL unless Sean McVay's twin brother exists and is looking for a head coaching job.



Carolina Panthers 6-5 (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7 (54.5): Panthers 30-27 Bucs 24-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Rain; low 80s)

Reasons: The last time these division rivals played the Panthers blew them out 42-28, but these Bucs are wild cards (not literally) and capable of anything, including offensive explosions any week with either Jameis Winston or Fitzmagic. Tampa Bay is just as capable of imploding with the help of their 31st-ranked scoring defense (30.7 ppg), but then again, so is Cam Newton and River Boat Ron. The Panthers should be able to take advantage of the turnovers Tampa Bay will undoubtedly supply (32nd TO ratio) and steal a win on the road to help increase their playoff chances. 

Cam Newton threw four INTs and the Panthers have now lost four straight games after starting the season 6-2, which means Carolina with Cam Newton continues to be the most inconsistent team in the league from year to year that I can think of and are no longer in control of their own destiny. 


New York Jets 3-8 (+8) @ Tennessee Titans 5-6 (40.5): Titans 23-17 Titans 26-22

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: The Titans had just turned the corner and were looking like a team on the rise before losing two games in a row by an average of 22.5 points ppg. The Jets, on the other hand, are just abysmal; New York has lost five straight games by an average of 17.2 ppg. The Titans are playing at home with playoff hopes, so they get the nod, but will they win by eight points when they can barely score 17 ppg?

The Jets once led this game 16-0 and then again 22-13 before the Titans scored 13 unanswered 4th quarter points to steal the win away from New York and keep their season alive.



Kansas City Chiefs 9-2 (-14.5) @ Oakland Raiders 2-9 (55.5): Chiefs 31-20 Chiefs 40-33

Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)

Reasons: The Chiefs were finally forced to come to public terms with Kareem Hunt’s alleged assault this week as video of the February event surfaced and Hunt was subsequently released. Kansas City is still loaded with talent, some of which somehow survived their own horrifying domestic assault case and remain in the NFL (Tyreek Hill), so they’ll be fine this week against the hapless Raiders, but things could get shaky heading towards the playoffs unless the Spencer Ware transition is seamless. 

The Raiders scored 24 of their points in the second half and turned this game into a shootout days after the Chiefs had to release Kareem Hunt, an obvious key to their 9-2 success. Oakland turned the ball over three times - all three fumbles by three different players not named Derek Carr - but remained in the game despite only getting one takeaway of their own. At the end of the day Patrick Mahomes balled out again, throwing four more TD passes, including the 4th quarter TD pass that put the Chiefs up 40-30 and put the game out of reach for the Raiders.
 


 Russell Wilson has the Seahawks in the playoff hunt again, and the defense hasn't skipped a beat since the Legion of Boom left.



San Francisco 49ers 2-9 (+10) @ Seattle Seahawks 6-5 (46): Seahawks 27-21 Seahawks 43-16

Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: The Seahawks are yet another 6-5 team clogged in the middle of the NFL looking to make the playoffs, so the floundering 49ers are the perfect team to slide into Seattle and get gutted. Enough fish puns, but the Seahawks should handle the 49ers with ease Sunday, they have to. I’m just not sure about those ten points, though. 

Russell Wilson threw four TD passes and Bobby Wagner returned an INT 98 yards for another TD and the Seahawks increased their playoff chances by destroying the 49ers.


Minnesota Vikings 6-4-1 (+5) @ New England Patriots 8-3 (49.5): Patriots 28-24 Patriots 24-10

Sunday, 4:25PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Rain; low 40s)

Reasons: The Vikings come into Foxborough needing a win to stay in the playoff race, but that might be tough considering the Patriots are doing Patriots things <insert cheating joke here> and it’s December, that time of year when New England turns it on. Add that to the fact the Vikings are no longer weather-tested and we begin to understand the five-point spread considering how well-matched these teams are statistically. It’ll be first-class offense versus first class defense as well as mediocre offense versus mediocre defense Sunday afternoon, as these two disciplined teams that excel in various different aspects of the game offer a view into a potential Super Bowl matchup. Don’t laugh… 

James Develin's two TD runs were the difference in a game in which the Patriots defense actually came to play, but the highlight of the game was undoubtedly when Bill Belichick told Adam Theilen to "Shut the f*ck up!" after a brief altercation on the sideline following a Belichick challenge. 


Los Angeles Chargers 8-3 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-1 (51.5): Steelers 27-24 Chargers 33-30

Sunday, 8:20 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 40s)

Reasons: If we thought the New England Patriots v. Minnesota Vikings was good get a load of this game, a potential AFC Championship preview between arguably the best two teams in the conference. If we’re talking total offense/defense and scoring offense/defense these teams are top-10 across the board, except the Steelers rank 12th in PA (22.6 ppg), a measly 0.2 ppg from 10th (Minnesota) in the league. The biggest difference is the Steelers turn the ball over too much (26th TO ratio) and aren’t very disciplined on offense (31st PEN), but the Chargers are without Melvin Gordon, which is a huge blow to overcome in the face of a Steelers team at home with a defense that has been playing much better. 

The Steelers were comically off-sides three times in a row as the Chargers tried to kick the game-winning FG as time expired, the third try being successful despite another off-sides penalty by Pittsburgh, but don't let that distract you away from the fact the Steelers blew a 23-7 first half lead and lost their first game in Pittsburgh after holding the lead at halftime in 222 games (220-0-2), an absolutely astounding statistic. The Chargers are becoming the team to match the talent everyone expected them to be, while the Steelers will either fall apart or use this loss to galvanize the team and go on an epic playoff run, one that could be spent largely on the road after Sunday's loss.



Washington Football Team 6-5 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 (45.5): Eagles 24-21 Eagles 28-13

Monday, 8:15 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 30s)

Reasons: This is your classic NFC East divisional battle with playoff implications towards the end of the season, and by classic, I mean no one expected Washington to be atop the division and only a few of us expected the Eagles to be this terrible. Yet, here we are, despite Washington being the only team in the NFL with a winning record and a negative point differential and Philadelphia being a returning Super Bowl champion that seemingly improved in the off-season. The Eagles still have a chance to turn their season around, but it’s only because they’re in a division with teams like Washington. You didn’t think those 6.5 points were because of Alex Smith, did you? 

The Eagles scored 14 unanswered 4th quarter points and turned a 14-13 nail-biter with the season on the line into what looked like a Monday Night Football blowout, turning the NFC East into a traffic jam with only four weeks remaining in the season. Washington could be done for the season after turning to Mark Sanchez after Colt McCoy's ankle injury, but the Eagles remain alive for whatever that's worth. 



Stay tuned for Week 14: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Sunday!




No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.