2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday’s Gone: Week 16 #NFL Game Reviews
Week 16 results: 11-5 (WINS); 8-7-1 (ATS); 10-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 155-83-2 .651 (WINS); 115-117-8 .496 (ATS); 130-107-3
.549 (O/U)
Note/Key
(when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
The Tennessee Titans have been up and down all season, much like quarterback Marcus Mariota, whose window seems to be closing.
Washington
Football 7-7 (+10) @ Tennessee Titans 8-6 (37): Titans 21-13 Titans 25-16
Saturday,
4:30 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Mostly Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons:
One of these teams will be going home after the game, but you’re right: Both
teams might as well go home. The Titans have won three straight games to come
back from the dead, largely on the legs of Derrick Henry, who has rushed for
408 yards on nearly 10 ypc the past two games and has finally learned how to
run the ball in the NFL after a pep talk from Eddie George. Unfortunately for
Washington their once proud defense has been shriveling by the week, and their
run defense remains in the bottom half of the league, meaning the Titans could
jump on Henry’s shoulders again Saturday and ride them all the way to the
playoffs. Washington can barely move the ball, but either can the Titans unless
Henry is running, which chews up the clock, meaning less points even for the
Titans. 10-point spread in this game? Maybe that makes sense: The Titans have
won three straight game by an average of 14 ppg; Washington is 1-2 in the same
stretch, losing games by an average of…14 points. Washington may not score, but
who ever said the Titans do?
This terrible game only got more terrible when Josh Johnson threw
an INT in Washington’s last two possessions, the latter being returned
for a pick-6 to not only seal the game, but turned a total of 35 points into 41
and ruined the beginning of Week 16 for all of us who took the under.
Baltimore
Ravens 8-6 (+4.5) @ Los
Angeles Chargers 11-3 (44.5): Chargers 24-21 Ravens 22-10
Saturday,
8:30 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Partly clear; low 50s)
Reasons: Both
teams are fighting for their respective divisions, which makes this game one of
the most intriguing of Week 16. The Chargers 10-1 in their last 11 games, the
one loss coming to the Denver Broncos 23-22 on a FG as times expired, and are
in the dRiver’s seat (Get it?) after
coming back from down 14 points to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 29-28 last week.
The Ravens are 4-1 in their last five after a mid-season skid, the one loss in
their past five games coincidentally coming in OT 27-24 to the aforementioned
Chiefs. Los Angeles also managed to come back against Kansas City without
Melvin Gordon or Keenan Allen, not only the Chargers two best skill players,
but two of the best in the NFL. Those guys will be back Saturday, which means
the Ravens need to rush the ball 60 times and chew up 45 minutes of the clock
if they want to beat one of the most skilled teams on both sides of the ball in
the NFL. There’s a lot of money coming in on the under, especially the first
half under, but I’m here to preview the full game and the Chargers don’t need
much time to score in bunches, just ask the Chiefs.
The Ravens went to neutral ground and beat the Chargers soundly, on perhaps Philip Rivers worst game of the season (181 passing yards; 2 INTs), holding the Chargers to only 10 points in a game that could’ve helped Los Angeles seal the AFC West. Alas, it never happened, but the Chargers lucked out with another Kansas City Chiefs loss.
Buffalo Bills 5-9 (+12.5) @
New England Patriots 9-5 (45): Patriots 24*-17 Patriots 24*-12
Sunday,
1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather:
Chance snow; high 30s)
Reasons:
While you might think the Patriots lucked out again facing the Buffalo Bills
Week 16, I point to the Patriots late season away troubles with AFC opponents,
which occur for many reasons, most notably the opposing team’s chance to ruin
some aspect of the Patriots impending playoff run. Well, actually, that doesn’t
happen with the Bills. In fact, since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick became a
thing the Bills have only beaten New England at home three times (2003; 2011; 2015). That’s absurd. This
time the Bills could sink New England to a lower seed, say the 3rd
seed, in which the Patriots might have to host the Baltimore Ravens. Talk about
late season troubles; suffice it to say the Patriots don’t want that scenario
playing out. While one might point to Josh Allen being more of a dynamic runner
than the Patriots are used to facing, I would point to Tyrod Taylor and put
those claims to bed. The Patriots are absolutely awful; the skills position
players are hurt or haven’t recovered from being hurt, and the defensive front
seven can’t stop anybody. However, they’re the Patriots and they’re coached by
Bill Belichick. Knowing what they face in the playoffs I expect the Patriots to
win and control their own destiny; covering 12.5 points is another story,
although my track record with New England ATS is atrocious.
Tom Brady looked absolutely awful (126 passing yards; 1 TD; 2 INTs),
but luckily Bill Belichick has seen the writing on the wall and decided to hand
it off 47 times for 273 rushing yards against one of the better passing
defenses in the NFL and held the ball for 36 minutes. The Patriots won their 10th
straight AFC East title, which means absolutely nothing at this point.
New York Giants 5-9 (+9) @ Indianapolis
Colts 8-6 (46.5): Colts 24-13 Colts 28-27
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
(Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Odell Beckham Jr. is out again, which means the Colts 6th-ranked
rush defense will stack the box against Saquon Barkley and force Eli Manning to
embarrass himself. The Colts are battling for the 6th seed, or are
they? The AFC South has three teams also battling for playoffs spots, although
Houston has a two-game advantage with two games remining. Yet there are many
tiebreakers to be sorted should the Colts, or Titans, win out and the Texans
lose out. Regardless, the Colts have everything to play for while the Giants
don’t.
The Giants put up a fight; even Eli Manning ran for a TD. It wasn’t
enough, so the Giants move on to the 3-5th pick in the 2019 NFL
Draft, where they hope to land a mediocre quarterback, while the Colts move on
to Week 17 and play the only meaningful game to end the 2018 NFL regular season.
This is the idea, but it won't be on the wings of Carson Wentz for the second season in a row.
Houston Texans 10-4 (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles 7-7 (45.5): Texans 27-24 Eagles 32-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial
Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons:
What a coincidence, we just talked about the Houston Texans, and here they are,
facing the one team in the NFL no one wants to face right now with zero room
for error and two divisional teams breathing down their backs for the AFC South
title. What a scenario for a team that had won nine straight games and was the
hottest team in the NFL until they lost a Week 14 game to the one team they
couldn’t affords to lose to (IND) and
suddenly aren’t even locks to make it the playoffs, let alone win the AFC South
title. The Texans attrition levels haven’t quite reached the Eagles levels, but
it’s not looking good heading down the stretch. Will Nick Foles turn into Saint
Nick and bring gifts to Philadelphia or will the Texans recognize the situation
and get the win they need to put all the doubts to rest?
It was the battle most of us expected, and the Eagles almost
squandered their season, but a Jake Elliot FG as time expired after losing a 13-point
lead in the 4th quarter sealed the victory for the Eagles, keeping
their playoff hopes alive, while sending the Texans into panic mode as they now
have to wait until Week 17 – and win – to win their division after a season in
which they won nine straight games and looked like the best team in the NFL
only three weeks ago. Imagine the New England Patriots cheering for the Eagles?
It happened.
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-10
(+4.5) @
Miami Dolphins 7-7 (39): Dolphins 20-17* Jacksonville 17*-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
The Florida Bowl should be a fun one. The Jaguars might be the worst NFL team
east of the Mississippi River and the Dolphins wouldn’t even be relevant if it
weren’t for the Miracle in Miami. So next time someone gets excited that “14 of
16 games have playoff implications”, remember they’re talking about statistical
improbabilities like this game when they’re saying that.
The Florida Bowl lived up to its shitty potential. Bye, Miami.
Green
Bay Packers 5-8-1 (+1) @ New York Jets 4-10 (44):
Packers 24-20 Packers 44-38
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons: This game
has zero playoff implications and I wouldn’t count on Aaron Rodgers to help you
in any fantasy capacity. Green Bay gets their first road win of the year.
Las
Vegas got it right again, at least from the perspective that it took OT for the
Packers and their golden quarterback to beat the lowly Jets with their rookie
quarterback. When I saw one-point in the spread I laughed, but in most cases, Las
Vegas gets the last laugh. Not the case this time as anyone with a brain knew
the Packers couldn’t lose to the Jets after blaming their season woes on Mike
McCarthy.
Cincinnati
Bengals 6-8 (+7) v. Cleveland Browns 6-7-1 (45.5): Browns 24-19 Browns
26-18
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Snow;
low 30s)
Reasons:
The Bengals started the season 4-1 and the Browns started the season as the
Browns, but what difference 10 weeks makes. Suddenly the Bengals might actually
consider firing Marvin Lewis and Baker Mayfield might run away with the 2018
ROY, even if Saquon Barkley amasses 2,000 yards from scrimmage and owns the
rookie TD record. What Mayfield has done for the Browns is nothing short of
amazing, especially considering the coaching inconsistencies, to put it
politely. The only shot the Bengals have is if they suddenly come to life and
live only to ruin Cleveland’s season, but these young kids are hungry. 1-31 to
a serious shot at the playoffs and a distant shot at the AFC North title. Holy
shit.
The Browns have officially turned things around, but let’s see how
long it lasts. The only real question is, Will the Bengals finally fire Marvin
Lewis? The answer is probably not.
If the Dallas Cowboys want to win out it's going to take efforts from both of the guys pictured here.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 5-9 (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys 8-6 (46.5):
Bucs 23-21 Cowboys
27-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
I don’t trust the Cowboys at all and the Buccaneers are the last type of team
Dallas wants to face right now, because if Tampa Bay has anything left to play
for it might be Jameis Winston’s pride and even his place with the organization
after an up-and-down year, but one in which Jameis is the 5th-rated
QB in the league since getting the starting job back from FitzMagic. The
Cowboys are banged up and feeling themselves, a horrible combination in Week
16. The Bucs will face their third top-10 defense in a row, which has made
people forget this team can put up 30 points any given Sunday, but the truth is
this Cowboys team is as good as any of them, and does so without the fresh legs
the Baltimore Ravens defense enjoys. Any other team with these numbers would
get the no-brainer nod, but I’m sticking to my “Dallas goes 8-8 this season”
guns, because I simply don’t trust them in clinching situations.
This push was almost as annoying as Skip Bayless is about to become
regarding these mediocre NFC East winners.
Minnesota
Vikings 7-6-1 (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions 5-9 (43.5): Vikings 21-17 Vikings 27-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field,
Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Vikings are atrocious on the road, going 2-4-1 averaging fewer than 13.5
ppg with an offense that includes Stephon Diggs, Adam Theilen, Kyle Rudolph and
Dalvin Cook. Oh yeah, and Kirk Cousins. You
like that?! Neither do I, and the ineptitude could likely cost them a trip
to the playoffs. The Lions are averaging 17.8 ppg over their last nine games
since coming back from their bye week, so we’re in for a doozy.
The Vikings took care of Detroit and now must win Week 17 to earn a playoff
berth, which will be tough considering they play the Chicago Bears, who need a
win for a shot at the 2nd seed and home field advantage. The Eagles
lurk, which is another reason I need Minnesota to win; I predicted the Eagles would
go 6-10 and miss the playoffs.
Atlanta
Falcons 5-9 (+4) @ Carolina Panthers 6-8 (50): Falcons 24*-21 Falcons 24*-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny;
low 50s)
Reasons:
Cam Newton is done for the season. So are the Panthers and Falcons.
Both of these teams went to the Super Bowl in the past few seasons.
The NFL stands for Not For Long. Jerry was a Falcon, too.
Chicago Bears 10-4 (-4) @ San Francisco
49ers 4-10 (42.5): Bears 23-17 Bears 14-9
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons:
This would be the perfect trap game for the Bears, no pun intended, but then again
it wouldn’t be a trap if the Bears just put out the reserves or played to stay
healthy for the playoffs. No, the Bears have seeding to play for, and the 49ers
aren’t going away quietly, especially after it was reported this week how hard
the 49ers went to the hoop on Khalil Mack, just to be denied. I can imagine
keeping Mack in the Bay was something the Oakland Raiders wanted no part of.
This is the perfect game for the Bears to stay sharp, as Nick Mullens is no
practice squad defensive back anymore, and the 2nd seed means
staying home instead of taking Mitch Trubisky on the road for the playoffs. The
real question is, how badly will the Bears miss Eddie Jackson?
The Bears defense is on fire, but the Bears offense is a dumpster fire,
lowering their season average by over 3 ppg (29 ppg to 26 ppg) in just two
weeks. The Bears have a chance to secure the 2nd seed in the
playoffs next week and enjoy home field advantage until at least the NFC
Championship, something these Bears likely desperately need heading into the
playoffs with their suddenly defunct offense. Maybe Mike Nagy has something
hidden up his sleeve, like a veteran playoff quarterback.
The
Los Angeles Rams aren’t the same team without a healthy Todd Gurley.
Los Angeles Rams 11-3 (-14) @ Arizona Cardinals 3-11 (47.5): Rams 27-17 Rams 31-9
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: 11-3 v. 3-11. 14-point
spread. One team is supposed to win the Super Bowl. One team is arguably the
worst team in the NFL. So why does this feel so weird? I guess it’s because the
Rams have lost two straight, new ground for this Hollywood scripted team, and
with Todd Gurley banged up and Cooper Kupp gone, this offense isn’t the same.
The defense also never lived up to the hype, although most of us knew that
beyond Aaron Donald there was a lot of smoke and mirrors. Los Angeles can’t
lose, literally and figuratively, but 14 points is a lot, even for the Rams,
who have only won three games by 14 or more points this season (14 being a push, keep in mind), although
one of those was a 34-0 blowout of these very Cardinals.
The Rams did
what they had to do Sunday, now they have to win Week 17 and have the Bears
lose to secure the 2nd seed in the NFC. It’s funny how teams can go
from Super Bowl Champion favorites on paper to perhaps playing on the road for
the entire playoffs. Life comes at you fast, especially in the NFL, which is
why we play the games; all 16 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5-1 (+6)
@ New Orleans Saints 12-2 (57): Saints 27-24 Saints 31-28
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints have been
a shell of themselves the past few weeks, and to make things even stranger than
Drew Brees averaging fewer than 200 passing ypg the past four games, the Saints
defense has been the reason the Saints are still the NFC’s top seed. The
Steelers are reeling, 1-3 in their last four games, that one win a 17-10
squeaking by the tired skill-less New England Patriots, averaging 21 ppg over
that stretch, about a TD less than they’ve been averaging all season. Much like
the Saints, the Steelers defense has come alive and kept the Steelers alive,
but they haven’t faced a team like the Saints at home in that stretch.
Please don’t
tell me how great of a coach Mike Tomlin is ever again.
Kansas City Chiefs 11-3 (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 8-6 (53.5): Seahawks 24-23 Seahawks 38-31
Sunday,
8:20 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Rain; mid-40s)
Reasons: Home underdogs is a
strange place to be for the Pete Carrol-coached Seahawks, but then again, the
Seahawks don’t see many quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes (48 total TDs; 11 INTs) or the explosive Kansas City Chiefs. That
explosiveness has dwindled the past few weeks with the absence of Kareem Hunt,
and the depth at WR has been affected by the absence of Sammy Watkins, who,
despite your laughter, can still spread the field and provides the same level
of speed the Chiefs are accustomed to. Then there’s the Seattle weather. The
Chiefs aren’t quite the same team everyone has come to fear, while the Seahawks
are the team everyone is talking about hating to face right now. Apparently,
Las Vegas agrees to an extent, making Seattle 2.5-point underdogs at home,
which means on paper the Chiefs should probably win, but in reality, they
probably won’t. The young Chiefs could be glued to that television screen
Saturday night, which could be a good or bad thing for Sunday’s game.
The Game of
the Week proved to all of us that Russell Wilson is every bit as good as the
Great Patrick Mahomes, he’s just a lot shorter. No look passes, touch passes,
scrambles, bullets, lobs, needle-threading…we saw it all from Wilson (271
passing yards; 3 TDs), who led his team to victory, a playoff berth, and will
head into the playoffs one of the toughest match ups in what was supposed to be
a rebuilding year. Chris Carson added two TDs on 116 rushing yards and proved
Seattle could be the best running team heading into the playoffs, too. The Chiefs
looked as strong as they have all season, especially Mahomes (273 passing
yards; 3 TDs…look familiar?), but the defense, despite their ability to sack
the quarterback, will prove to be this team’s Achilles heel.
Denver Broncos 6-8 (-2.5)
@ Oakland Raiders 3-11 (45): Broncos 20-17 Raiders 27-14
Reasons: Aren’t games like
this exactly what the flex schedule is for? Oakland tanks and aims for 14 first
round picks in next year’s NFL draft.
The Raiders won their final game in Oakland Coliseum and it was as
boring and wet and muddy and gross as the past few years have been for Oakland football,
so besides the win, things ended in Oakland as they seem to have the past few
years, one of the myriad reasons the Raiders are [probably] moving to Las Vegas.
Stay tuned for Week 17: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & some analysis)
coming Sunday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.