2018 NFL SEASON
Week 3: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Week 2 results: 11-4-1 (wins); 8-8 (v.
spread); 8-8 (O/U)
Season totals: 20-10-2 .625 (wins); 15-17
.469 (v. sp); 17-15 .531 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
The days of wearing bags over their heads to games may be over for fans of the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets.
New York Jets 1-1 (+3) v. Cleveland
Browns 0-1-1 (41): Browns 24-20
Thursday, 8:20
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly
cloudy; low 70s)
Reasons: After beating the Detroit Lions 48-17 in Sam Darnold’s NFL debut the New York Jets came crashing back down to Earth versus the Miami Dolphins last week, in part due to Darnold’s poor play (2 INTs). The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, remain winless, but could just as easily be undefeated; that’s something Browns fans haven’t heard in decades. Cleveland is a Zane Gonzalez mistake signing away from being 2-0 all the while playing two of the better teams in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers (home) and New Orleans Saints (away). Having said that, Cleveland remains one of the worst teams in the league, statistically, although not much can be taken from the first two games of the season, which segues beautifully into my point about the Jets. New York has a top-5 defense so far in 2018, and the offense, led by the rookie Darnold, is middle-of-the-pack. That Detroit Lions game skews the numbers, however, so if the Browns can keep the Jets running game under control we could be in line for Cleveland’s first win in 20 games.
Reasons: After beating the Detroit Lions 48-17 in Sam Darnold’s NFL debut the New York Jets came crashing back down to Earth versus the Miami Dolphins last week, in part due to Darnold’s poor play (2 INTs). The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, remain winless, but could just as easily be undefeated; that’s something Browns fans haven’t heard in decades. Cleveland is a Zane Gonzalez mistake signing away from being 2-0 all the while playing two of the better teams in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers (home) and New Orleans Saints (away). Having said that, Cleveland remains one of the worst teams in the league, statistically, although not much can be taken from the first two games of the season, which segues beautifully into my point about the Jets. New York has a top-5 defense so far in 2018, and the offense, led by the rookie Darnold, is middle-of-the-pack. That Detroit Lions game skews the numbers, however, so if the Browns can keep the Jets running game under control we could be in line for Cleveland’s first win in 20 games.
New Orleans Saints 1-1 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (53): Saints 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Three weeks into the season and the NFC South is already turned on its head. The Saints lost a shoot out to the Bucs, but then could barely get by the Browns at home. The Falcons high-flying offense went missing in the NFL opener, although the weather was terrible, just to come back Week 2 and score 31 against the Carolina Panthers stout defense. Las Vegas sees an evenly-matched shoot out, which is likely, but I also see Drew Brees staying hot and taking advantage of a banged-up Falcons team on the road.
San Francisco 49ers 1-1 (+6.5) @ Kansas City
Chiefs 2-0 (55.5): Chiefs 35-24
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: Patrick Mahomes has the whole league buzzing,
and for good reason. No quarterback has thrown 10 TD passes in the first
two games of any NFL season, let alone a rookie. The 49ers might have
trouble keeping up with the Chiefs aerial weapons, especially considering
they’re towards the bottom of the league in passes defended and INTs. The 49ers
have failed to recapture that Jimmy G “magic” from the team’s run at the end of
the 2017 season, but even their mediocre offense should score points on Kansas
City. The 49ers don’t have much of a shot, but the over certainly does.
Oakland Raiders 0-2 (+3) @ Miami Dolphins 2-0 (43.5): Dolphins 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
30% storms; low 80s)
Reasons: It’s been nearly ten years since Jon Gruden
won an NFL game, and I’m starting to wonder if some of the analysts are right:
Gruden’s legend grew to mythical heights while a Monday Night Football
commentator and his abilities no longer, or perhaps never did, match the hype.
While probably an exaggeration, Gruden’s early success came through offensive
ingenuity (and a legendary defense handed to him by Tony Dungy on a silver
platter, but I digress), and so far, Derek Carr has 1 TD and 3 INTs and
Amari Cooper is nowhere to be found. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are
shocking people in their own way with their 2-0 start, and it’s mainly due to
their secondary (15 passes defended; 5 INTs). One could argue that’s
because Miami has faced Blaine Gabbert and the rookie Sam Darnold, but regardless,
the Dolphins are only giving up 16 ppg. What a coincidence, that’s exactly what
the Raiders offense is averaging.
10
years and $100M seems like the worst deal of the year, slightly edging
the trade that sent Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears fro draft picks.
Buffalo Bills 0-2 (+16.5) @ Minnesota
Vikings 1-0-1 (40.5): Vikings 28-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Vikings defense can’t be too pleased about surrendering 29 points to a hobbled Aaron Rodgers so I can imagine they’re salivating at the prospects of rookie Josh Allen. Minnesota will be missing key guys on both sides of the ball (e.g. Dalvin Cook; Everson Griffen), but it probably won’t matter against this Bills squad. Having said that...16.5 points?
Indianapolis Colts 1-1 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 (47.5): Eagles 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Vikings defense can’t be too pleased about surrendering 29 points to a hobbled Aaron Rodgers so I can imagine they’re salivating at the prospects of rookie Josh Allen. Minnesota will be missing key guys on both sides of the ball (e.g. Dalvin Cook; Everson Griffen), but it probably won’t matter against this Bills squad. Having said that...16.5 points?
Indianapolis Colts 1-1 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 (47.5): Eagles 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium,
Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 70% rain; high 60s)
Reasons: This is an interesting game in the sense that the Colts are far better than most people assumed they’d be heading into the season, and to say the Eagles are worse than expected would be the understatement of the season so far. The teams aren’t even that far apart statistically, which is the more surprising thing relative to a two-week record, but the alarming thing from Philadelphia’s perspective is the 385 ypg they’re giving on defense, with nearly 327 of those yards coming in the air. So, on one hand Andrew Luck could have a field day, but I doubt he will, because this time it is supposed to rain. Not exactly the type of game Carson Wentz wants to come back to after being gone for nine months with a knee injury, but you must get back on the Colt eventually.
Green Bay Packers 1-0-1 (-3) @ Washington
Football Team 1-1 (45.5): Packers 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
70% rain; high 60s)
Reasons: The Green Bay Packers and an Aaron Rodgers at
50% are favored by three points on the road against Washington, which is
all you to know about the level of respect Las Vegas and the public have for
the Washington Football Team. Washington’s defense seems stout, allowing only
13.5 ppg, but they’ve faced Arizona and Indianapolis, while the more battle-tested
Packers have faced much more serious defenses in Chicago and Minnesota. Green
Bay is beat up on defense, but the rain will factor, so the over probably isn’t
the best idea.
Cincinnati Bengals 2-0 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 1-1 (43.5): Panthers 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: 30% rain; high 70s)
Reasons: This game features two of the league’s better
defenses as well as two of the league’s better quarterbacks, but neither are best.
In fact, both teams are constantly hampered by high expectations and low
production, and right on cue, as soon as the Bengals offense begins rolling to
their potential, starting center Billy Price and starting running back and
dynamic playmaker Joe Mixon are out. That should bode well for Carolina, but
the Panthers lack of weapons on offense is a serious issue. This is one of the
tougher Week 3 games to call.
Has anyone seen Marcus Mariota?
Tennessee Titans 1-1 (+7) @ Jacksonville
Jaguars 2-0 (39.5): Jaguars 21-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 20% storms; high 80s)
Reasons: Marcus Mariota isn’t listed on the injury report, but he was suited up last week and didn’t play then, either, so who knows. We do know these Titans beat these Jaguars in both of their games last season, and considering Jalen Ramsey and “Sacksonville” are on their world revenge tour and Mariota’s status is uncertain, this seems like the Jaguars game to lose.
Denver Broncos 2-0 (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 1-1 (44): Ravens 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 20% storms; high 80s)
Reasons: Marcus Mariota isn’t listed on the injury report, but he was suited up last week and didn’t play then, either, so who knows. We do know these Titans beat these Jaguars in both of their games last season, and considering Jalen Ramsey and “Sacksonville” are on their world revenge tour and Mariota’s status is uncertain, this seems like the Jaguars game to lose.
Denver Broncos 2-0 (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 1-1 (44): Ravens 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore,
MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Reasons: The Broncos might be 2-0 so far in 2018, but those wins have come at home against terrible competition (Seattle; Oakland), and by an average of 2 ppg. In other words, Denver is lucky to be 2-0. Things won’t be so easy against the Ravens, who destroyed the Bills to open the season, but were then destroyed themselves by the Bengals on the road on a short week. This game is home for Baltimore and on a long week, so I expect them to get all their running backs involved in the terrible weather and keep Von Miller running right past the play.
Reasons: The Broncos might be 2-0 so far in 2018, but those wins have come at home against terrible competition (Seattle; Oakland), and by an average of 2 ppg. In other words, Denver is lucky to be 2-0. Things won’t be so easy against the Ravens, who destroyed the Bills to open the season, but were then destroyed themselves by the Bengals on the road on a short week. This game is home for Baltimore and on a long week, so I expect them to get all their running backs involved in the terrible weather and keep Von Miller running right past the play.
New York Giants 0-2 (+6) @ Houston Texans
0-2 (41.5):
Texans 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: This is the only game of the week featuring
winless teams, yet both teams have as much talent on the field on both
sides of the ball of any match up in the NFL Sunday. It’s amazing to consider
the O/U at 41.5 for a game featuring Odell Beckham Jr., Saqoun Barkley, Deshaun
Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. The fact Las Vegas doesn’t even see six combined
TDs out of that group is either a testament to the stars on their respective defenses,
or the fact that these teams have serious issues ranging from the offensive
line (New York) to coaches on the hot seat (Houston), hence the
records.
Los Angeles Chargers 1-1 (+7) @ Los Angeles
Rams 2-0 (48):
Rams 30-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium,
Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Reasons: It was only a matter of time before the two
teams from the City of Angels (or Carson) faced each other, and only a
short time removed from when the devil came and took these teams away from
their adoring cities. The truth is both LA teams are talented, but the team that
actually plays in Los Angeles is much better, evidenced by their 27.0 point differential
through their first two games. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a close game
here; regardless, the over seems like a great play.
Sam Bradford likely won't be making this face while facing Khalil Mack Sunday.
Chicago Bears 1-1 (-5.5) @ Arizona
Cardinals 0-2 (38): Bears 24-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Bears offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, but the Cardinals offense isn’t firing at all, so I can’t imagine Arizona gets it going against the best pass rushing team in the NFL. Chicago leads the league in sacks, and although they give up 20.5 ppg (12th), 35 of the 41 points the Bears have given up have come in the 4th quarter or garbage time.
Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (+1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 0-2 (41.5): Cowboys 21-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Bears offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, but the Cardinals offense isn’t firing at all, so I can’t imagine Arizona gets it going against the best pass rushing team in the NFL. Chicago leads the league in sacks, and although they give up 20.5 ppg (12th), 35 of the 41 points the Bears have given up have come in the 4th quarter or garbage time.
Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (+1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 0-2 (41.5): Cowboys 21-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Mostly cloudy; mid-60s)
Reasons: Seattle used to be a horrifying place for
visiting teams to play in, unless you were the St. Louis Rams, but that is no
more without the Legion of Boom. Now the Legion of Whom watches from the
sideline as Russell Wilson runs for his life and is reduced to his worst instincts,
which are likely to get him killed if the offensive line doesn’t improve, and
how can it? I'm sure departed Seahawks weep. The Cowboys, on the other hand, seem to be stuck in neutral now
that their famed offensive line is facing adversity, and until that’s fixed, they’ll
likely remain in neutral.
New England Patriots 1-1 (-7) @ Detroit Lions 0-2 (+53.5):
Patriots
31-23
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: Suffice it to say Bill Belichick doesn’t lose
to his former coaches often and I certainly don’t see Matt Patricia succeeding
in the task.
Pittsburgh Steelers 0-1-1 (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-0 (54):
Bucs 28-27
Monday, 8:15
PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Reasons: These two teams are so far the opposite of
what we expected coming into the season. Tampa Bay fans hoped Ryan Fitzpatrick (818
passing yards; 8 TDs) would keep the ship steady until Jameis Winston
returned from suspension and all FitzMagic (no trademark) has done is
played well enough to take Winston’s job. The Steelers are trending in the opposite
direction. The defense hasn’t been the same since they lost Ryan Shazier to a
back injury last season and the offense is in shambles without Le’Veon Bell (holdout)
missing and Antonio Brown (diva) out of tune with the rest of the offense. This will
be the second week in a row Pittsburgh gets down big and fails to recuperate.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 3 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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