2018 NFL
SEASON
Week 3: #NFL Game
Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 3 results:
9-7 (wins); 7-9 (v. spread); 10-6 (O/U)
Season totals:
29-17-2 .604 (wins); 22-26 .458 (v. sp); 27-21 .563 (O/U)
Note/Key
(when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards
per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against
the spread (ATS).
New York Jets 1-1 (+3) v. Cleveland Browns 0-1-1 (41): Browns 24-20 Browns 21-17
Thursday,
8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low
70s)
Reasons:
After beating the Detroit Lions 48-17 in Sam Darnold’s NFL debut the New York
Jets came crashing back down to Earth versus the Miami Dolphins last week, in
part due to Darnold’s poor play (2 INTs). The Cleveland Browns, on the other
hand, remain winless, but could just as easily be undefeated; that’s something
Browns fans haven’t heard in decades. Cleveland is a Zane Gonzalez mistake
signing away from being 2-0 all the while playing two of the better teams in
the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers (home) and New Orleans Saints (away).
Having said that, Cleveland remains one of the worst teams in the league,
statistically, although not much can be taken from the first two games of the
season, which segues beautifully into my point about the Jets. New York has a
top-5 defense so far in 2018, and the offense, led by the rookie Darnold, is
middle-of-the-pack. That Detroit Lions game skews the numbers, however, so if
the Browns can keep the Jets running game under control we could be in line for
Cleveland’s first win in 20 games.
The Browns hadn’t been favored in a calendar year heading into the
game Sunday and had tied the Steelers and took the Saints to the wire on the
road in their first two weeks of the season. Something was brewing, but I’m not
sure anyone saw that brew fermenting from multiple injuries to Tyrod Taylor. It
was almost as if the Browns were sabotaging Taylor before the football gods
added injury to insult and so began the Baker Mayfield era – and boy did it
ever. Mayfield came into the game in relief of Taylor and went 17-23 passing
for 201 yards, setting up Carlos Hyde for the winning touchdown run. It was
certainly a tale of the two top quarterbacks taken in the 2018 NFL Draft
(Mayfield, 1st; Sam Darnold, 3rd), but Darnold’s tale
included another subpar performance and two more INTs. You can’t write dramas
this good.
New Orleans Saints 1-1 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (53): Saints 28-27 Saints 43-37
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes
Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Three weeks into the season and the NFC South is already turned on its head.
The Saints lost a shoot out to the Bucs, but then could barely get by the
Browns at home. The Falcons high-flying offense went missing in the NFL opener,
although the weather was terrible, just to come back Week 2 and score 31
against the Carolina Panthers stout defense. Las Vegas sees an evenly-matched shoot
out, which is likely, but I also see Drew Brees staying hot and taking
advantage of a banged-up Falcons team on the road.
Matt Ryan threw five touchdown passes and still lost at home. That’s
because he again faced the most underrated superstar the NFL has ever seen in
Drew “Sub-6” Brees. Ever notice that we obsess over Tom Brady being immortal
and was still peaking at 40 yet fail to mention Brees, who, only 18 months
younger than Brady (Brees will be 40 in January) far surpasses Brady’s
statistics. Does Brees only eat avocados, too? Just as we expected these two teams
racked up the offense, gaining 940 total yards and 56 combined first downs. The
Saints possessed the ball nearly eight minutes more than the Falcons; seven of
those came in OT and therein lies the story.
San Francisco 49ers 1-1 (+6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 (55.5): Chiefs 35-24 Chiefs 38-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM,
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons:
Patrick Mahomes has the whole league buzzing, and for good reason. No quarterback
has thrown 10 TD passes in the first two games of any NFL season, let alone a
rookie. The 49ers might have trouble keeping up with the Chiefs aerial weapons,
especially considering they’re towards the bottom of the league in passes
defended and INTs. The 49ers have failed to recapture that Jimmy G “magic” from
the team’s run at the end of the 2017 season, but even their mediocre offense
should score points on Kansas City. The 49ers don’t have much of a shot, but
the over certainly does.
You’d think the story would again be Chiefs rookie quarterback
sensation Patrick Mahomes, who threw three more TD passes Sunday, extending his
record for touchdown passes to start the season to 13. Again, this kid is a
rookie. No, unfortunately the story of this game was the other “rookie”, 49ers
franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a self-inflicted ACL tear
that ended his season and the 49ers hopes for 2018. Coooooolinnnnnnnn…
Oakland Raiders 0-2 (+3) @ Miami Dolphins 2-0 (43.5): Dolphins 23-21 Dolphins 28-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard
Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Reasons:
It’s been nearly ten years since Jon Gruden won an NFL game, and I’m starting
to wonder if some of the analysts are right: Gruden’s legend grew to mythical
heights while a Monday Night Football commentator and his abilities no longer,
or perhaps never did, match the hype. While probably an exaggeration, Gruden’s
early success came through offensive ingenuity (and a legendary defense handed
to him by Tony Dungy on a silver platter, but I digress), and so far, Derek
Carr has 1 TD and 3 INTs and Amari Cooper is nowhere to be found. The Dolphins,
on the other hand, are shocking people in their own way with their 2-0 start,
and it’s mainly due to their secondary (15 passes defended; 5 INTs). One could
argue that’s because Miami has faced Blaine Gabbert and the rookie Sam Darnold,
but regardless, the Dolphins are only giving up 16 ppg. What a coincidence,
that’s exactly what the Raiders offense is averaging.
10
years and $100M seems like the worst deal of the year, slightly edging the
trade that sent Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears from draft picks.
Buffalo Bills 0-2 (+16.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-0-1 (40.5): Vikings 28-13 Bills 27-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank
Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
The Vikings defense can’t be too pleased about surrendering 29 points to a
hobbled Aaron Rodgers, so I can imagine they’re salivating at the prospects of
rookie Josh Allen. Minnesota will be missing key guys on both sides of the ball
(e.g. Dalvin Cook; Everson Griffen), but it probably won’t matter against this
Bills squad. Having said that...16.5 points?
Everyone saw this coming. At least let this be a lesson to you: No
matter how terrible a team is, never give their opponent 17 points. Also, you
should probably be wearier of a team that just battled to the emotional letdown
of a 29-29 tie the week before.
Indianapolis Colts 1-1 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 (47.5): Eagles 21-20 Eagles 20-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln
Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 70% rain; high 60s)
Reasons:
This is an interesting game in the sense that the Colts are far better than
most people assumed they’d be heading into the season, and to say the Eagles
are worse than expected would be the understatement of the season so far. The
teams aren’t even that far apart statistically, which is the more surprising
thing relative to a two-week record, but the alarming thing from Philadelphia’s
perspective is the 385 ypg they’re giving on defense, with nearly 327 of those
yards coming in the air. So, on one hand Andrew Luck could have a field day,
but I doubt he will, because this time it is supposed to rain. Not exactly the
type of game Carson Wentz wants to come back to after being gone for nine
months with a knee injury, but you must get back on the Colt eventually.
I have to say the game went pretty much according to how I predicted
it, and with all that I admit I get wrong, I feel entitled to brag. Colts
receivers dropped four Andrew Luck TD passes in the endzone, so instead of Luck
having “field day” he had a poor to mediocre day as his WRs let ball after ball
slip through their rain-soaked glue gloves. Carson Wentz looked good in his
first game in nine months, but the Eagles didn’t overall. Despite possessing
the ball twice as long (40 minutes) and holding Indianapolis to 209 total yards
Philadelphia trailed 16-13 late in the fourth quarter at home.
Green Bay Packers 1-0-1 (-3) @ Washington Football Team 1-1 (45.5): Packers 24-20 WTC 31-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx
Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 70% rain; high 60s)
Reasons:
The Green Bay Packers and an Aaron Rodgers at 50% are favored by three points
on the road against Washington, which is all you to know about the level of
respect Las Vegas and the public have for the Washington Football Team.
Washington’s defense seems stout, allowing only 13.5 ppg, but they’ve faced
Arizona and Indianapolis, while the more battle-tested Packers have faced much
more serious defenses in Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay is beat up on
defense, but the rain will factor, so the over probably isn’t the best idea.
As the saying goes, the Packers were still licking their wounds from
a 29-29 tie with the Minnesota Vikings the week before at home and suffered a
serious letdown against Washington. The WTC never trailed in this game, Adrian
Peterson (19 carries for 120 rushing yards; 2 TDs) continued to prove his love
for gyms and Clay Matthews learned the NFL officials really hate his
commercials.
Cincinnati Bengals 2-0
(+3) @ Carolina Panthers 1-1 (43.5): Panthers 24-23 Panthers 31-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of
America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 30% rain; high 70s)
Reasons:
This game features two of the league’s better defenses as well as two of the league’s
better quarterbacks, but neither are best. In fact, both teams are constantly
hampered by high expectations and low production, and right on cue, as soon as
the Bengals offense begins rolling to their potential, starting center Billy
Price and starting running back and dynamic playmaker Joe Mixon are out. That
should bode well for Carolina, but the Panthers lack of weapons on offense is a
serious issue. This is one of the tougher Week 3 games to call.
Damn, Newton. That’s a pun. Cam Newton was responsible for four TDs
(2 passing; 2 rushing) Sunday and single-handily beat the upstart undefeated
Bengals. Christian McCaffery (26 carries for 184 rushing yards) was also
integral in the Panthers win, but so were Andy Dalton’s four INTs. Carolina
might be one of the better teams in the league, but this almost seems more like
the beginnings of a seemingly annual Cincy swoon.
Has
anyone seen Marcus Mariota?
Tennessee Titans 1-1 (+7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-0 (39.5): Jaguars 21-17 Titans 9-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA
Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 20% storms; high 80s)
Reasons:
Marcus Mariota isn’t listed on the injury report, but he was suited up last
week and didn’t play then, either, so who knows. We do know these Titans beat
these Jaguars in both of their games last season and considering Jalen Ramsey
and “Sacksonville” are on their world revenge tour and Mariota’s status is
uncertain, this seems like the Jaguars game to lose.
The Titans remain the Jaguars “kryptonite”, assuming Jacksonville is
any type of Superman, which it seems they’re not. We should probably pump the
brakes on that win against New England while we’re at it, too, because the
mighty Patriots just got embarrassed by the Detroit Lions, making that win
seem, well, much less impressive. Both teams combined for 465 yards, both
quarterbacks combined for 255 passing yards and no skill position player
managed more than 57 total yards. You can’t even blame turnovers, as there was
just one.
Denver Broncos 2-0 (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 1-1 (44): Ravens 23-20 Ravens 27-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T
Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Reasons:
The Broncos might be 2-0 so far in 2018, but those wins have come at home
against terrible competition (Seattle; Oakland), and by an average of 2 ppg. In
other words, Denver is lucky to be 2-0. Things won’t be so easy against the
Ravens, who destroyed the Bills to open the season, but were then destroyed
themselves by the Bengals on the road on a short week. This game is home for
Baltimore and on a long week, so I expect them to get all their running backs
involved in the terrible weather and keep Von Miller running right past the
play.
The rain came, but it was the Broncos running backs that got the
running game going (122 total yards on 24 carries), although to no avail. The
Ravens running backs did score TDs (2 total) and Von Miller was shut out of
this contest allowing Joe Flacco to throw for 277 passing yards and another
score as this game was over by halftime.
New York Giants 0-2 (+6) @ Houston Texans 0-2 (41.5):
Texans 21-20 Giants
27-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG
Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
This is the only game of the week featuring winless teams, yet both teams have
as much talent on the field on both sides of the ball of any match up in the
NFL Sunday. It’s amazing to consider the O/U at 41.5 for a game featuring Odell
Beckham Jr., Saqoun Barkley, Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. The fact Las
Vegas doesn’t even see six combined TDs out of that group is either a testament
to the stars on their respective defenses, or the fact that these teams have
serious issues ranging from the offensive line (New York) to coaches on the hot
seat (Houston), hence the records.
The Giants finally put a complete offensive game together Sunday
with Eli Manning throwing for multiple touchdowns, Saquon Barkley kept up his
All-Pro rookie pace and Odell Beckham Jr. found his old form catching nine
passes for 109 receiving yards. Deshaun Watson also shined, at least
statistically, throwing for 385 yards and two TDs. The problem was Watson also
threw an INT and Lamar Miller lost a fumble and that’s how the football bounces
in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers 1-1
(+7) @ Los Angeles Rams 2-0 (48): Rams 30-24 Rams 38-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles
Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Reasons:
It was only a matter of time before the two teams from the City of Angels (or
Carson) faced each other, and only a short time removed from when the devil
came and took these teams away from their adoring cities. The truth is both LA
teams are talented, but the team that actually plays in Los Angeles is much
better, evidenced by their 27.0-point differential through their first two
games. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a close game here; regardless, the over
seems like a great play.
The Chargers didn’t really do too much to lose, but they certainly
didn’t do enough to keep up with their cross-town rivals. The Rams outgained
the Chargers by 167 total yards and managed more than twice the first downs the
Chargers managed (16:33). Robert Woods (10 receptions for 104 receiving yards)
scored two touchdowns on passes from Jared Goff (354 passing yards; 3 TDs)
while Todd Gurley (23 carries for 104 rushing yards; 1 TD) continued to make
his early season MVP case after finishing second in 2017. These Rams are good.
Sam
Bradford likely won't be making this face while facing Khalil Mack Sunday.
Chicago Bears 1-1 (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 0-2 (38): Bears 24-17 Bears 16-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Bears offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, but the Cardinals
offense isn’t firing at all, so I can’t imagine Arizona gets it going against
the best pass rushing team in the NFL. Chicago leads the league in sacks, and
although they give up 20.5 ppg (12th), 35 of the 41 points the Bears
have given up have come in the 4th quarter or garbage time.
The Cardinals tried to pull a Browns and put rookie Josh Rosen into
the game in the 4th quarter to attempt to engineer a comeback
against the visiting Bears, but unfortunately for everyone involved on the
Arizona side it was Khalil Mack and the Chicago Bears…you know, the team that
terrorized quarterbacks in the first two games of their season. Alas, it didn’t
work, but at least Rosen has been named the starter and Sam Bradford can go
back to doing whatever it is he does for $10M guaranteed Do you realize this
dude has made almost $130M in the NFL. When you wake up from passing out reading
that, think about it…
Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (+1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 0-2 (41.5): Cowboys 21-20 Seahawks 24-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM,
CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly cloudy; mid-60s)
Reasons:
Seattle used to be a horrifying place for visiting teams to play in, unless you
were the St. Louis Rams, but that is no more without the Legion of Boom. Now
the Legion of Whom watches from the sideline as Russell Wilson runs for his
life and is reduced to his worst instincts, which are likely to get him killed
if the offensive line doesn’t improve, and how can it? I'm sure departed
Seahawks weep. The Cowboys, on the other hand, seem to be stuck in neutral now
that their famed offensive line is facing adversity, and until that’s fixed,
they’ll likely remain in neutral.
This game featured two of the worst teams in the NFL despite what
history and your brain is telling you. Despite handfuls of Super Bowl
appearances and wins this is 2018 and these teams struggle to score. The only
significant takeaway from the game were the performances of the starting
running backs – Ezekiel Elliot gained 127 on only 16 carries while Chris Carson
gained 102 rushing yards and a TD, although he needed 32 carries to gain those
yards. Come to think of it, the other significant moment came after Earl
Thomas’ second INT, at which point he ran to the Cowboys sideline and bowed,
most likely sarcastically, to mock the Cowboys for not trading for him in the
off-season. Something tells me it’s six of one and a half dozen of the other,
Earl.
New England Patriots 1-1
(-7) @ Detroit Lions 0-2 (+53.5): Patriots 31-23
Lions 26-10
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Ford
Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Suffice it to say Bill Belichick doesn’t lose to his former coaches often and I
certainly don’t see Matt Patricia succeeding in the task.
These are the moments I dread. I’m so confident about a prediction
that I come in and drop the mic with one sentence. This is the second week in a
row I’ve been clowned by that approach. On one hand the Patriots were a Tom Brady
strip-fumble away from potentially making it a 23-17 game late in the 4th
quarter. Then again, these same Patriots were the same situation from
potentially tying the Super Bowl, too, so it seems New England hasn’t
progressed much since February. You could chalk this game up to several
intuitive talking points: Matt Patricia know the Patriots, the Patriots defense
has no pass rush and the Patriots have zero skill players beyond James White
and Rob Gronkowski. The bottom line is Detroit nearly doubled the Patriots
yardage and first downs on exactly double the time of possession and Tom Brady
managed only 133 passing yards. Guess what? The Patriots are favored by seven
v. the Dolphins this Sunday. Fool me once…
Pittsburgh Steelers 0-1-1
(-1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-0 (54): Bucs 28-27 Steelers 30-27
Monday,
8:15 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Reasons:
These two teams are so far the opposite of what we expected coming into the
season. Tampa Bay fans hoped Ryan Fitzpatrick (818 passing yards; 8 TDs) would
keep the ship steady until Jameis Winston returned from suspension and all
FitzMagic (no trademark) has done is played well enough to take Winston’s job.
The Steelers are trending in the opposite direction. The defense hasn’t been
the same since they lost Ryan Shazier to a back injury last season and the
offense is in shambles without Le’Veon Bell (holdout) missing and Antonio Brown
(diva) out of tune with the rest of the offense. This will be the second week
in a row Pittsburgh gets down big and fails to recuperate.
Ryan Fitzpatrick seemed to lose his magic Monday night, throwing
three costly INTs, and the Bucs entered the second half down 30-10. The
Fitzmagic era in Tampa Bay was over as soon as it began. Then Fitzmagic found
his tracksuit and bling, went into the phone booth, and came out in the second
half firing on all cylinders. A third quarter field goal and two 4th
quarter touchdown passes from Fitzmagic made it a 30-27 game and suddenly it
looked like the Bucs might pull another game out of their treasure chest. Ryan
Fitzpatrick has now thrown for 400 yards and at least three TDs in three
straight game to open the season and is only two TD passes behind the record-setting
rookie Patrick Mahomes. In other words, Fitzpatrick went from most likely
losing his job despite his hot start to “Why the hell would we bench this dude”
again. I don’t have anything to add about the Pittsburgh Divas other than they
were lucky to win this game and avoid a 0-2-1 start.
Stay
tuned for Week 4: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Sunday!
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