Tuesday's Gone: Week 2 #NFL Game Reviews

2018 NFL SEASON

  

Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 2 results: 11-4-1 (wins); 8-8 (v. spread); 8-8 (O/U)
Season totals: 20-10-2 .625 (wins); 15-17 .469 (v. sp); 17-15 .531 (O/U)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).

The Cincinnati Bengals have a fierce defense, anchored by two of the best defensive linemen in the NFL in Carlos Dunlap (96) and Geno Atkins (97).

Baltimore Ravens 1-0 (-1) v. Cincinnati Bengals 1-0 (44): Bengals 23-20 Bengals 34-23

Thursday, 8:20 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 70s)

Reasons: Both teams are coming off Week 1 victories, but both quarterbacks will see much different defenses Thursday night. Joe Flacco won't have as easy a time against the Bengals front line as he had against the Bills front line last week and the same could be said about Andy Dalton versus the Ravens defense after facing the Colts Week 1. Both teams managed only two sacks against our Thursday Night Football starters, and were only hit a total of five times. By comparison the Bengals hit Andrew Luck nine times; the Ravens sent Nathan Peterman and rookie Josh Allen to the ground nine times as well, but their hits resulted in six sacks. Essentially what we have here is the first game of the season on a short week between two teams that won their opening games, but were probably expected to win those games considering their inferior - as in two of the worst teams in the NFL - opponents. Considering the jury was still out on these two teams coming into the season I would say this is anybody's game.

Andy Dalton hit AJ Green for three quick touchdowns in the first 17 minutes of the game and it was over with three minutes left in the half after Dalton's fourth touchdown pass. The same couldn't be said for Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who was sacked four times on his way to throwing two INTs and losing a fumble. 

Carolina Panthers 1-0 (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 0-1 (44.5): Falcons 24-20 Falcons 31-24

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Falcons nearly beat the defending champion Eagles on the road, but it wasn’t because of their supposedly explosive offense. Instead it was the Atlanta defense that shined, holding the Eagles to 232 total yards; but they lost. The Panthers are no slouches on defense, themselves, and they’ll need every bit of their defensive prowess to contain the Falcons on the road, but not because the Falcons are juggernauts at home – Atlanta averaged less than a ppg at home v. the road in 2017. No, it’s because the Falcons are home and can’t start the season 0-2, but 5.5 points is crazy. Both teams are already decimated on offense though, and neither team scores to their offensive ability, so the under is a great play.

The Falcons found the end zone from the red zone, scoring on four of four opportunities a week - and an entire 2017 season - after not being able to capitalize on any red zone opportunities. Cam Newton outplayed Matt Ryan, from the pocket no less, but it was the Falcons that were able to spread the field more and get the running game going. Rookie Calvin Ridely scored his first NFL TD and gave the league a glimpse of what the Atlanta wide receiving corps could have in store the rest of 2018.

Los Angeles Chargers 0-1 (-7.5) @ Buffalo Bills 0-1 (43): Chargers 27-17 Chargers 31-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: Despite the Chargers consistent terrible injury luck I’m not sure the Bills can beat Los Angeles at home, especially considering this is Josh Allen’s first NFL start. Add that to the fact it’ll be sunny and in the low 80s and suddenly the Chargers feel at home against a team with far more questions than answers. This is one of those rare games when a road team is favored by more than a touchdown and it isn’t a bad idea.

This was a 31-13 game until Josh Allen hit Kelvin Benjamin with a 3-yard pass in the end zone with 38 seconds left in the game. The game belonged to Phillip Rivers (2 TD passes) and Melvin Gordon (3 total TDs), who helped make it a 28-3 game by the two minute warning in the first half. 

Minnesota Vikings 1-0 (-1) @ Green Bay Packers 1-0 (46): Vikings 23-21 TIE 29-29

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: This might sound like the most obvious statement ever made, but the game completely depends on Aaron Rodgers, specifically whether he plays. The last time these Vikings came into town and Rodgers wasn’t playing due to injury Minnesota won 16-0; the reason Rodgers was hurt was because the Vikings knocked him out for the season 10 weeks prior. The Vikings are for real and haven’t lost a step with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Even if Rodgers plays he won’t be 100%, which is what he needs to be for the Packers to have any chance at beating this defense. 

Not again. For the first time since 1971 the NFL suffered two ties in consecutive weeks to open the season. I'm not sure if two rookie kickers missed two potentially game-winning field goals in those 1971 games, but it happened this season with the Browns and now the Vikings. You'll be shocked to know both kickers are without jobs as I type this. Kirk Cousins (4 TDs on 425 passing yards) continues to justify his huge off-season contract, but it was surprising to see Minnesota surrender 29 points to a hobbled Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings need to pieces these games together if they want to dominate as advertised. 

Aaron Rodgers managed to stay upright most of the day Sunday and willed his team to a tie.

 

Houston Texans 0-1 (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans 0-1 (44.5): Titans 21-20 Titans 20-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 40% rain; low 80s)

Reasons: The battle of the Bill Belichick coaching tree sets off Sunday in Nashville and it could be a wet one. Both teams lost their opening week games and in the past 10 years fewer than 10% of teams that go 0-2 make the playoffs. Both teams have young mobile quarterbacks with the ability to explode or implode if the pressure of going 0-2 gets to be too much, which one might assume would be the less talented Titans – that’s if either quarterback even plays, because both are questionable. My bet is on the outdoor home team in the questionable weather.  

The Titans went up 14-0 early via two TD passes, neither of which came from quarterback Marcus Mariota. No, these touchdown passes came from safety Kevin Byard on a fake punt and then backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert, but it took two 4th quarter Ryan Succup field goals, the second with exactly a minute remaining, to beat the Texans at home despite being out-gained by over 150 totals yards.  

Cleveland Browns 0-0-1 (+9) @ New Orleans Saints 0-1 (49.5): Saints 35-24 Saints 21-18

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Cleveland Browns announced plans to release Josh Brown as I type this, days after listing him as a starting wide receiver. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but it’s not a sign that stability has taken over the Browns. The Saints, on the other hand, will be looking for exactly that Sunday – stability. New Orleans understands the position they’re in if they lose Sunday, and the Browns simply don’t have the fire power to keep up with the Saints in any venue, especially at the Superdome. The Saints could easily cover and probably come close to the over on their own.

The only thing speedy about former Browns kicker Gonzalez was how fast he was fired after missing two extra points and two field goal, but it was Zane-y the way this dude squandered two opportunities to win the Browns first two games after Cleveland had lost 17 straight dating back to their last win v. the Chargers (20-17) in Week 16 of the 2016 season and then tying the first game of the 2018 season. I'm a little shocked the Saints struggled so much at home, but the Cleveland defense is much better than even I give it credit for, and I've been saying it for, well, since the beginning of the season. 

Miami Dolphins 1-0 (+2.5) @ New York Jets 1-0 (43.5): Jets 23-20 Dolphins 20-12

Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: Divisional games between two mediocre teams are difficult calls to begin with, evidenced by the 2.5 points the Jets are getting, despite being home in great weather. New York thinks they may have found their savior in Sam Darnold, while, well, the Dolphins are still looking regardless of what their cap sheet tells you. I wouldn’t take much from New York’s Week 1 win versus an overwhelmed Matt Patricia, but the Lions have similar weapons with a similar quarterback and look what the Jets did to them. I don’t have much hope for the Dolphins, or the over. 

Ahh, the ol' regression to the mean. Sam Darnold threw two INTs and the Jets lost an additional fumble to a feisty Dolphins defense and the Dolphins led 20-0 at the half and never looked back. In fact, I don't think anyone went back to this game after the half, it was terrible.

Kansas City Chiefs 1-0 (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 0-0-1 (52.5): Chiefs 28-27 Chiefs 42-37

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: The Chiefs haven’t had much luck in Pittsburgh in recent years – or decades - but something about these two teams feels different. Maybe it’s because this Kansas City is run by  the rookie gunslinger in Patrick Mahomes Ben Roethlisberger used to be and Tyreek Hill has become the show stopper Antonio Brown used to be. The Chiefs are lightning in a bottle offensively, but their defense is nothing like the past several years. The Steelers could score in bundles, but they’ll need to if they want to keep pace with these new Chiefs. 

The Chiefs are rollin' with Mahomes, amirite? This kid is unbelievable. On Sunday the rookie, and likely consecutive AFC Player of the Week award winner, Patrick Mahomes II broke the all-time NFL record for TD passes in the first two games of any season (10) for any player, let alone a rookie. Mahomes threw six touchdown passes in Week 2 to the loaded Chiefs team, including scores to Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (2). Kansas City scored three first quarter TDs, but Pittsburgh scored three touchdowns of their own in the second quarter, before the Chiefs blew the game open 21-7 in the second half. A late safety and subsequent Steelers score late in the fourth quarter display a close score that misrepresents the final as the Steelers were thoroughly dominated for three quarters of the game.

 Carson Wentz was cleared for contact this week and will start Week 3, which is music to Philadelphia fan's ears.

Philadelphia Eagles 1-0 (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-0 (44): Eagles 24-23 Bucs 27-21

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Partly sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: Eagles fans probably scoffed when they saw this was the first road game on the schedule, which might have been misinformed anyway, and that was before Captain Fitzpatrick came to the rescue. What is with the Ryan Fitzpatricks and Matt Flynns of the world? Overachieving quarterbacks who periodically come onto our television screens to set a game or two on fire, get a giant inexplicable contract, and then disappear for a time, only to reappear and begin the cycle anew. The Eagles get to face that recycled Fitzpatrick on the road Sunday, but lucky for them they face a Bucs defense already facing attrition. The same could be said about the Eagles offense, however, so what we have is a evenly matched game most likely won by Philadelphia’s defense.

Oh, oh, it's Fitzmagic. Holy cow, will this dude supplant Jameis Winston as the Bucs starting quarterback? I can already see Winston squinting. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw four more TD passes (8 total on the season) on over 400 yards passing...again. Fitzpatrick became only the third quarterback in NFL history to start the season with consecutive 400+ yard passing games (Tom Brady 2011; Cam Newton 2011), and has developed a great rapport with DeSean Jackson, right down to borrowing his track suit and bling and wearing them out to the post-game press conference. Clearly the Bucs are feeling themselves after a 2-0 start, including this huge win at home against the struggling defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. 

Indianapolis Colts 0-1 (+6) @ Washington Football Team 1-0 (45.5): Washington 26-21 Colts 21-9

Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 50% rain; high 70s)

Reasons: The weather could be an issue Sunday, which would also be an issue for the climate-controlled Colts. Assuming left tackle Moses Morgan is healthy, Washington should be able to control the pace of the game and clock, while the weather limits Andrew Luck and the one-dimensional Colts. 

Suffice it to say it didn't really rain and apparently I don't really know anything about either of these teams. 

Arizona Cardinals 0-1 (+13) @ Los Angeles Rams 1-0 (45): Rams 31-17 Rams 34-0

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: The largest spread (13) of the week is such for many reasons, but quite simply the Rams are at home in great weather and light years more talented then the Arizona Cardinals

Suffice it to say I did a much better job analyzing this game then the previous game. 

Detroit Lions 0-1 (+6) @ San Francisco 49ers 0-1 (48): 49ers 24-20 49ers 30-27

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Reasons: The Lions fell flat in rookie head coach Matt Patricia’s debut, but they head to the Bay Area to face Jimmy Garoppolo, the man who faced Patricia’s Patriots defense in practice for years. One could argue that match up either way but suffice it to say Las Vegas and the betting public certainly have feelings about the direction they think the game will head. Both teams are equally banged up along their offensive lines, and both former Patriots employees failed to impress on opening day of the 2018 season, so it’ll probably come down to who best retained Bill Belichick’s advice on how to rebound from a terrible game. My bet is Kyle Shanahan gets revenge for the Super Bowl loss he suffered to Patricia while coaching the Falcons. 

The Lions outgained the 49ers in total yardage, gained more first downs, possessed the ball longer and sacked Jimmy Garoppolo six times, but turnovers rule the NFL and the Lions had the only turnover of the game, a Matt Stafford fumble. Stafford also threw three TD passes, but it wasn't enough to overcome Garoppolo's two passing touchdowns and Matt Breida's 138 rushing yards.

 Khalil Mack is no longer with the Oakland Raiders and the effects have been felt for two straight weeks to open the season.

Oakland Raiders 0-1 (+6) @ Denver Broncos 1-0 (46): Broncos 24-17 Broncos 20-19

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 60s)

Reasons: The Raiders are down a few defensive tackles, Chucky is already blaming quarterback Derek Carr for misreads, and Khalil Mack is never coming back. Both quarterbacks threw three INTs in their opening game, but only the Broncos have the skill players to take advantage of those types of opportunities, should they arise again. AFC West divisional games are always battles, and therefore relatively tough games to call at any point in the season, but something just doesn’t seem right in Oakland; Las Vegas clearly feels the same way considering the 6-point spread. Maybe it’s the fact that just like the Chucky doll horror film series, the game has simply passed by Chucky the coach…by like 20 years.

Oakland led 12-0 at the half, their second such lead at some point in the first half of both of their games to open the season, but once again the offensive guru without a defense in Jon Gruden couldn't hold the lead and the Raiders ultimately lost. Maybe it's because they traded the NFL's best defensive player days before the season started. Never mind. A relatively evenly-matched game, Oakland led 19-7 with 21 minutes remaining, but the Broncos kicked a field goal, scored a touchdown and then kicked another field goal in 19 of those minutes scoring 13 unanswered points on drives of 10 plays, 12 plays and 10 plays, respectively. Those drives took nearly 12 of those remaining 19 minutes and sealed the game.

New England Patriots 1-0 (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0 (45): Patriots 27-23 Jaguars 31-20

Sunday, 4:25 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)

Reasons: Running backs will be at a premium Sunday, as the Patriots will be without three of theirs while the Jaguars will be without their star Leonard Fournette. That means New England will be airing it out versus one of the best secondaries in the NFL, a group whose talent is only surpassed by their trash talk. We’re going to see many Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski connections Sunday, and assuming everything stays clean and healthy, even these Jaguars will again struggle to contain them. The much-discussed hot weather shouldn’t be a factor considering the Patriots have been experiencing 90-degree heat all summer, so if anything slows the Patriots down, it’ll be up to the Jaguars defense again, which evidently will include Myles Jack.

Bill Belichick said it best: [PARA] "We didn't do anything in any phase of the game good enough to beat this talented and well-coached [Jaguars] team." 

New York Giants 0-1 (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys 0-1 (42): Cowboys 23-21 Cowboys 20-13

Sunday, 8:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The injuries and subsequent shakeups to the Cowboys offensive line and a lack of wide receivers were highlighted Sunday and the results were simple: contain Ezekiel Elliot and the Cowboys don’t move, let alone score. The Giants suffered a similar fate in their opening game, but both could be written off considering both teams played stellar defenses (Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively). Neither team has a stellar defense coming into Sunday night’s game, so perhaps we see fireworks between two teams with plenty of fire power to set off, from the aforementioned Elliot to the Giants’ young star in the making in Saquon Barkley. The low O/U reflects how dysfunctional Las Vegas considers these two teams, because any game with Elliot, Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. must be worth 45 points alone.

The Cowboys don't exactly inspire their fans with their play, especially considering how bad their offensive line looks relative to the past few seasons, but the New York Giants are absolutely awful. Speaking of offensive lines, or just plain offensive, the Giants "pass protectors" gave up six sacks, and it seemed like 60. Eli Manning was under duress all night, barely getting out the three measly passes to Odell Beckham Jr. he did manage to release, and rookie sensation Saquon Barkley continued to impress making first tacklers miss, but that's more because these dudes were in the backfield the second Barkley got the ball. There is no way this Giants offense is sustainable, whether from a healthy Eli Manning perspective to OBJ losing his mind and imploding. The Cowboys aren't much better off so far in 2018, but I'd rather be a Dallas fan...for now. 

Seattle Seahawks 0-1 (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears 0-1 (43): Bears 21-17 Bears 24-17

Monday, 8:25 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 70s)

Reasons: The clearest example of two opposite trending defenses, Seattle’s Legion of Boom terrorized teams for half a decade until the locker room became so divided over the past year the Seahawks had to ship most of the members out. The Bears, on the other hand, had been the pillar of defensive stability for what seemed like their entire existence until the past few seasons, when the Bears ranked among some of the league’s worst defenses. Chicago got better through the draft, and then capped it off with a blockbuster trade this off-season that sent Khalil Mack their way. Now the Seahawks are rebuilding while the Bears have already begun terrorizing their opponents, nearly beating the explosive Packers on the road Week 1. Russell Wilson will be running for his life all night Monday, but it’ll be up to Chicago quarterback Mitch Trubisky to make sure he doesn’t squander another solid defensive effort. 

Russell Wilson was hit seven times and sacked six times as the ferocious Bears chased Wilson all night, forcing two fumbles and taking a Wilson INT to the house for a pick-6. This game belonged to the Bears defense, as Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense struggled, managing fewer than 300 total yards, while Trubisky threw two INTs of his own despite not being under duress (2 sacks; 2 QB hits) nearly as much as Wilson. Chicago's defense is something to watch as the season progresses, but if the Bears want to advance when it counts they're going to have to start scoring points. The Seahawks, on the other hand, should be figuring out how to keep Wilson from getting killed while they figure out how to score points before they've already lost the game.

Stay tuned for Week 3: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Sunday!
 

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