2017
NFL SEASON
W I L D C A R D R O U N D
Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
2017
regular season final wins record: 146-76 (.655): 66%
2017
regular season final spread record: 98-120-5 (.439): 44%
Note/Key: Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against
(PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone
TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover
ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).
The Kool Aide Man could have a one-way ticket to New England,
where they’ve been waiting for 18 weeks to exact revenge. The Titans should be
no problem, right?
Tennessee Titans #5 (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs #4 (44.5):
Chiefs 28-21
Saturday, 4:20 PM, Arrowhead
Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Sunny;
high 20s)
Reasons: Using the statistics
referred to in the note above the Titans come into the Wild Card Round of the
playoffs the weakest team of the eight. That’s not a hot take considering the
Titans are the 5th seed, but even the 6th-seeded Buffalo
Bills finished in the top-ten in twice as many of the aforementioned
statistics. Of those two metrics the only meaningful one may be the Titans
ability to get after the quarterback, where they ranked 5th with 43
sacks. Tucked away in Tennessee’s 13th-ranked total defense is a great
run defense (4th), which
will come in handy against a rookie running back who should not only win Offensive
Rookie of the Year, but could arguably be the league MVP in Kareem Hunt (1327 rushing yards; 8 TDs). Tennessee
will need that pass rush against a Chiefs offense that ranks in the top-ten in
point differential (10th),
time of possession (9th), points
scored (6th), yards gained
(5th), time of possession
(2nd) and yards per play (2nd), not to mention a
4,000-yard passer in Alex Smith (26 TDs;
5 INTs) and that Hunt guy we were talking about. Tennessee will also need a
big day from their own running back Derrick Henry considering DeMarco Murray is
out for the game, which could be easy considering Kansas City is 25th
against the run. The Titans had an inconsistent season to say the least, and
the same could be said about the Chiefs, but Kansas City is home at Arrowhead
with more talent than the Titans, despite various injuries, and the Chiefs season
was bookended by 5- and 4-game winning streaks, the latter of course being
current.
The potential NFL MVP Todd Gurley and the Rams offense could have his work cut out for him against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is almost as quick as he is.
Atlanta Falcons #6 (+6)
@ Los Angeles Rams #3 (48.5): Rams 27-23
Saturday, 8:15 PM, LA Coliseum,
Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Cloudy; high
60s)
Reasons: The reigning NFC
champs barely made it to the playoffs, which is actually quite a feat
considering the amount of teams that historically miss the playoffs the year
following a Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons did in part to a 6-2 second-half
record and in part by becoming one of the better defenses in the NFL, ranking
in the top-ten in points against (8th)
and yards allowed (9th), both
much better than a Rams defense that gets far more media coverage, while sacking
the quarterback 39 times (13th).
That’s not really surprising as the Falcons are coached by Dan Quinn, and actually
may even raise questions of “Why not sooner?” considering Quinn was the
mastermind behind many of those great recent Seattle Seahawks defenses. The
Falcons offense is a shell of it’s record-breaking 2016 self, but still remains
one of the most explosive offenses in the league (3rd yards per play; 8th yards gained) as well
as one of the league’s most efficient (1st
3rd-down efficiency). The Rams are simply one of the best teams
in the NFL, period. Los Angeles dominates both sides of the ball, anchored by
players like MVP-candidate Todd Gurley (1305
rushing yards; 13 TDs) on offense and Defensive Player of the Year
candidate Aaron Donald (11 sacks; 5 forced
fumbles; 1 TD) on defense. Combine a Rams team that is close to or
surpasses the Falcons in nearly every meaningful metric to the fact the Rams owned
Dan Quinn when he was a Seahawks coach and about the only thing left is the
Falcons playoff experience over the young Rams team that has exactly none. The Falcons
will get after Jared Goff, but that pass rush will likely only set up Gurley,
and the Rams are just too talented on both sides of the ball.
The Buffalo Bills need a healthy LeSean McCoy if they stand a chance against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their vaunted defense and McCoy is questionable.
Buffalo Bills #6 (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (39.5):
Jaguars 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Windy; mid-50s)
Reasons: The Buffalo
Bills do the “little” things right. They don’t commit a lot of penalties (9th), they hold on to the
ball (7th in turnover ratio)
and they are very efficient on 3rd down (6th). The Bills also ball hawk, ranking 6th in
the league in INTs (18). Buffalo also
backed into the playoffs in the most miraculous fashion imaginable, which,
after a 17-year playoff drought, might seem like the kind of miracle that has
destiny written all over it. I’m not so sure Destiny picked this route. The
Jacksonville Jaguars, for years the laughingstock of the AFC, and perhaps the
entire NFL, are suddenly ranked in the top-ten (top-six, technically) in ten of the 13 statistics mentioned in the
opening note in addition to ranking 11th in the league yards per
play (0.1 ypp separates 11th from
9th). The Jaguars are one clearly one of the best teams in the
NFL, but the defense really separates them from the rest of the league. In
addition to being the No. 2 defense in total defense and points allowed, the
Jaguars rank 2nd in both sacks (55)
and INTs (21). In other words, they’ll
smother Tyrod Taylor and put all the pressure on LeSean McCoy, which probably won’t
go so well. Interestingly the Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL in sacks
allowed, which should allow Blake Bortles (3,687
passing yards; 21 Ts; 13 INTs), largely considered to the Jaguars Achilles
Heal until this season, to operate freely while the Jaguars defense dominates
an overwhelmed Bills offense.
Cam Newton has carried the Carolina Panthers for much of his career on the offensive side of the ball and it'll take another Herculean effort from Newton to beat the Saints on the road Sunday.
Carolina Panthers #5 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints #4 (48): Saints 27-24
Sunday, 4:40 PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Conventional
wisdom says the Panthers won’t lose to their division rival three times in one
season, but the simple fact is the Saints are at home, making that task a
little non-conventional for Carolina. The Saints also won those two regular
season games 34-13 (Week 3) and 31-21
(Week 13), by an average margin of
15.5 points, and during bookend parts of the season in which both teams were well
established. In other words, it’s hard to point to many, if any, significant
reasons why the Saints would have dominated both games besides the fact they’re
the better team. If you want to point to Cam Newton still recovering from his
off-season surgery when the Saints beat Carolina Week 3 one could counter that
the Saints were 0-2 when they decidedly beat the Panthers that week. Most
people familiar with these two teams will immediately assume a classic defense
v. offense football game, in which the Drew Brees-led Saints try to air it out against
the vicious front seven of the vaunted Carolina defense. That still rings true
to some degree, but most fans would be shocked to see the Saints defense tied
the Panthers in points allowed (20.4 ppg;
11th). The Saints also get after the quarterback, ranking 7th
in the NFL with 42 sacks; by comparison the Panthers rank 3rd in the
NFL with 50 sacks, but Carolina doesn’t protect against the against the pass
rush as well as the Saints do, who ranked 2nd in the league in sacks
allowed (20), which means Drew Brees
could be upright most of the day. Cam Newton might not be upright all day, but
he’ll come into New Orleans fired up, where he is 3-4 all-time in the Superdome
with out any playoff games. I imagine the Saints will be a lot more fired up, and
let’s be honest; the Saints are a much better team at home (7-1 in 2017), and probably in general. I’m
not sure we’ve ever seen three teams from the NFC South make the playoffs,
especially considering the NFC South is usually trash, so it’ll be tough to have
to watch one of these teams go home after the Wild Card Round, because both are
capable of making their own long playoff runs.
Stay
tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 18 #NFL Reviews WILD
CARD ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.