2017
NFL SEASON
T U E S D A Y ’ S G O N E :
D I V I S I O N A
L R O U N D
Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Wild Card Round: 2-2 wins; 3-1 v. spread
Divisional Round: 2-2 wins; 2-1-1 v. spread
Note/Key: Statistical
analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF);
points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed
(YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).
Saturday, 4:35 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia,
PA (Weather: Clearing; high 30s)
Reasons:
The Falcons seem like the hottest team in the NFL right now, and the case could
be made; Atlanta is 4-1 over their last five games and has only allowed an
average of 16.8 ppg over that span. Conversely, the Eagles went from the
favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl with MVP-candidate quarterback
Carson Wentz at the helm to losing Wentz for the season and going 3-2 over
their last five games of the regular season with an average point differential
of 0.2 ppg over that span, compared to having the best point differential in
the NFL during the regular season (10.1
ppg). Neither team gets after the quarterback consistently, although the
Falcons seemed to have found a new gear over their last several games, but the
Eagles league-leading run defense should put the game squarely on Matt Ryan’s
shoulders. That could go either way because although Ryan is inconsistent at
best, the Eagles pass defense is mediocre at best and Mohammed Sanu has become
a serious threat opposite Julio Jones. The Falcons have a slight advantage in
the kicking game, but equalizing atmospheric pressure will create just enough
wind to make kicking a challenge, so the game could come down to two extremely
important but often overlooked stats: time of possession and turnovers. If the Falcons
(18th) can secure the ball
as well as the Eagles did all year (4th)
and keep the Eagles from hoarding the ball (1st
in time of possession) this game could come down to something as silly as a
missed extra point. Having said that, the suddenly hot Falcons could
realistically come in and destroy the rested-in-a-negative-way Eagles, lest we
forget, no top seed has ever been an underdog in their opening playoff game.
Damn, Falcons fans
must be sick of this stuff happening. The Eagles turned the ball over twice - the
only turnovers of the game - missed an extra point and gave the Falcons four
chances to score the go-ahead touchdown with 80 seconds left in the game from within
the 9-yard line and THE FALCONS STILL LOST. Matt Ryan (22-36 passing for 210 yards; 1TD) threw three passes to
arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Julio Jones (9 receptions; 101
receiving yards) from within the 9-yard line and the Falcons came up empty. Jones
came close on one of those passes, but this ain’t horseshoes and it ain’t hand
grenades so the Eagles essentially won the game on two unanswered field goals
off the foot of the same guy (Jake Elliot) who missed an extra point in the second
quarter. The Falcons certainly lost the game more than the Eagles won it, but
such is the NFL and the NFC Championship is a new game and another home game for
the Eagles. The Falcons, meanwhile, get to ponder another horrific playoff loss
the entire off-season. Hey, at least they weren’t up 28-3 in the Super Bowl.
Tennessee Titans #5 (+13.5) @
New England Patriots #1 (48): Patriots 27-20 Patriots 35-14
Saturday, 8:15 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 70% rain; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Patriots come into the game banged up with a patchwork offensive line and
key skill position guys either missing or questionable (O: Chris Hogan, Rex Burkhead, James White; D: Alan Branch, Marquis
Flowers) and the Patriots are still going to manhandle the Titans. I could
on analytically for paragraphs why the Patriots match up well with Tennessee
and will overwhelm the Titans in every aspect of the game Saturday, save perhaps
the Titans 4th-ranked run defense, which would only put more of the
onus on Tom Brady to step up, which has never been a problem in the first
place, but, especially not when a young cocky defensive player from the
opposition (Free safety Kevin Byard)
opens his mouth during the week and provides bulletin material. Truth be told,
the media provided all the bulletin material the Patriots needed to galvanize
the team with the bombshell story that the Patriots had cracked from within and
that ownership, Brady and Bill Belichick were at serious odds. Even if true,
which it could very well be, to think the Patriots won’t use this excuse to
circle the wagons would mean you haven’t been paying attention to New England
since Bill Belichick took over. The Patriots only statistical weakness is on
yardage allowed, including the worst pass defense in the NFL despite a
defensive backfield that boast Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler
and Patrick Chung, but much of that can be explained away by garbage yardage
statistics perpetuated by teams desperately trying to come back on a team that
beat teams by an average of 10 ppg this season, best in the NFL. The Titans
only chance of winning in Foxborough Saturday is if their 5th-ranked
pass rush (43 sacks) gets to Brady
early and often and Derrick Henry carries the ball 40 times and burns 38 or
more minutes of the clock. Neither is out of the realm of possibilities.
The Titans led 7-0
heading into the second quarter, but that’s where Tennessee’s season ended. The
Patriots, declared dismantled from within due to a week of internal turmoil
between team owner Bob Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom
Brady, also know in New England as the Holy Trinity, subsequently rolled off 35
unanswered points and put any claims the Patriots might be in trouble to rest.
Consider those supposed distractions added to the fact both coordinators were
being coveted throughout the week, with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia
taking the head-coaching job in Detroit, and what we have is the most disciplined
team in NFL history; or the most sensationalizing media. I suppose in the era
of fake news the latter is just as possible, but I digress. The Titans 5th-ranked
pass rush didn’t sack Brady (35-53 passing for 337 yards; 3 TDs) once, yet the
supposedly horrible Patriots defense broke their own playoff record with eight
sacks. The Patriots supposedly horrible run defense also held Derrick Henry to 28
yards on 12 carries; in fact, Marcus Mariota led the Titans in rushing (37
yards). The Patriots not only looked primed against the Titans, but their
envied discipline was on full display while they kept one of the best pass
rushing units in the NFL from sacking Brady and only touching him four times.
Looks like “Sacksonville” might have their work cut out for them as they travel
to New England to face the Patriots in the AFC Championship, New England’s
record-extending seventh straight.
Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (+7) @ Pittsburgh
Steelers #1 (41):
Jaguars 24-23 Jaguars 45-42
Sunday, 1:05
PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
20% snow; low 20s)
Reasons:
Star running back Le’Veon Bell was out of this game until the late hours of
Friday night, meaning that even if he plays he’s not going to be 100%. Spare me
the “No one is 100% at this point in the season” talk because no one is
randomly listed as “OUT” if the have a few scratches. Guess who else is
questionable? Antonio Brown. That’s just the Steelers two best skill position
player. Center Maurice Pouncey was listed as OUT Friday night as well, meaning
the Steelers would have their work cut out for them against the Cleveland
Browns, let along the best defense in the NFL. The Jaguars come into
Pittsburgh, a team they beat 30-9 while intercepting Ben Roethlisberger five
times Week 5, ranked 2nd in points allowed, yards allowed sacks,
interceptions while boasting the league’s top pass defense. Offensively the
Jaguars rank 6th in yards gained (366 ypg), 5th in points scored (26.1), 3rd in point differential (9.2), and 2nd in red zone efficiency. Using statistical
analysis and taking the Steelers attrition at key positions into account, not
to mention the shell of the former defense the Steelers have been without Ryan
Shazier, and I can’t come up a single reason why the Steelers would be giving
seven points to the Jaguars. Even the argument that the Steelers match up with
or surpass the Jaguars in by the same metrics and are playing at home doesn’t
explain seven points, especially when Pouncey, Bell and Brown could be less
than 100% or even absent. Las Vegas is really leaning on Pittsburgh’s
top-ranked pass rush and 5th-ranked pass defense to beat up on poor
old Blake Bortles. Even if true, I wouldn’t hang my hat on that against this
Jaguars defense.
It’s amazing when I predict
a close score for a game with a large spread and I end up being right, but with
a score twice what I predicted. This game went down to the wire, but got there
in a fashion I don’t think anyone besides Calais Campbell imagined (Campbell
predicted the exact score earlier in the week when asked about a potential defensive
battle). The Jaguars went up 21-0 on three rushing touchdowns (Fournette twice;
Yeldon) within 19 minutes on Pittsburgh’s 10th-ranked run defense. After
Ben Roethlisberger connected with Antonio Brown (7 receptions for 132 receiving
yards; 2 TDs) to make it 21-7 the Jaguars stripped Roethlisberger and ran the
fumble into the end zone making it a 28-7 game as the two-minute warning approached.
Roethlisberger (37-58 passing for 469 yards; 5 TDs; 1 INT) connected with Martavis
Bryant as the half closed and then connected with Le’Veon Bell (16 carries for
67 rushing yards; 1 TD) for the only score of the 3rd quarter and
suddenly it was a 28-21 game as the 4th quarter began. That’s when
the shit show started. Two of the best defenses in the NFL combined to give up
38 4th-quarter points, trading scores twice before Jaguars kicker Josh
Lambo’s 45-yard field goal made it a 10-point game with 1:45 remaining in the 4th
quarter. The Steelers still had nearly two minutes to figure something out, but
this Steelers coaching staff has proven over the years they’re not very good at
those things and really just rely on the “Killer B’s”. It ultimately failed,
and instead of kicking a field goal and then attempting an onside kick for a
chance at a game-tying touchdown, the Steelers ended up padding Roethlisberger’s
stats with a 5th, yet meaningless, touchdown with one second left on
the clock. Despite the Jaguars blowing the game wide open early the game came
down to two Pittsburgh turnovers, one of which ultimately decided the game, and
Jacksonville’s historic defense gave up 42 points and 567 yards while “Sacksonville”
only managed two sacks. The Patriots offense they face next week in the AFC
Championship doesn’t get any easier, so let’s hope for the Jaguars sake the
young team can maintain focus against a New England team playing in their
record-extending seventh-straight AFC title game.
New Orleans Saints #4 (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings #2 (46.5): Saints 24-21 Vikings 29-24
Reasons:
How lucky are the New Orleans Saints? Not only do they get the 4:40 Sunday
afternoon slot again this week, but also their away game is in the comfy
confines of a domed stadium, just like home. And before we go on and on about
how great the Vikings defense is, and it most certainly is (allowing 11.4 ppg over their last five games),
let’s not forget two things: The Minnesota Vikings are basically noobs at this
playoff thing as of late, while the Sean Payton-Drew Brees combo is most
certainly not new to this playoff thing, and Drew Brees might be the greatest
statistical quarterback we’ve ever seen. Much of Brees’ career has been plagued
by the presence of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but the truth is Brees holds
the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in NFL history and is
slowly creeping up on the greats in many other passing metrics, which isn’t
surprising considering Brees has thrown for over 5,000 yards five times; no
other quarterback comes close. Any time you have a transcendent player like
Brees anything is possible, and this Saints defense is quietly becoming as
interesting as the vaunted Vikings defense. Consider: The Vikings are ranked 2nd
in both total defense (276 ypg) and
scoring defense (15.8 ppg), but
aren’t really ball hawks and don’t really get after the quarterback; the Saints
give up far more yards, but rank 10th in points allowed (20.4 ppg) and are the top-seven in both
sacks (42) and interceptions (20; 5th). While we’re at it,
though, we might as well praise a Vikings offense that surprisingly keeps pace
with the Saints, much in the same way the Saints defense keeps pace with the
Vikings defense. The Vikings are no barnburners, but they rank 11th
in yards (357 ypg), 10th
in points scored (23.9 ppg), 9th
in red zone efficiency (44%), 3rd
in third-down efficiency and were 15 seconds from being the league leader in
time of possession. So while the Saints defense stacks up against the defense
the media has raved about all season, the same could be said about the Vikings
offense relative to the high-flying Saints. Expect an amazing game where the
experience of Sean Payton and Drew Brees play out right on that beautiful dry
turf grass.
This game featured
the first ever “walk-off” touchdown in NFL playoff history. A game that
resembled the AFC Divisional game earlier in the day, the Vikings went up big
on the Saints early and went into the half leading 17-0; Drew Brees had thrown
both of interception in the first half and things were looking bleak. Then New
Orleans went Who Dat on the Vikings and three minutes into the 4th quarter
Drew Brees (25-40 passing for 294 yards; 3 TDs; 2 INTs) hit Michael Thomas (7
reception for 85 receiving yards; 2 TDs) with a 3-yard TD to make it a 17-14
game. The Saints and Vikings traded scores before Wil Lutz kicked a 43-yard
field goal with 25 seconds remaining to put New Orleans up 24-23 (Note: Pay no
attention to how close I came to predicting the score of the game. Just
kidding, hire me because of it). Then the Miracle at Minneapolis occurred. A play
that even the casual fan has heard about by now, the Vikings, simply trying to
get enough field position to kick a potential miracle field goal, instead got a
miracle botched defensive play from an inexperienced Michael Williams, who dove
towards Stephon Diggs, who had just hauled in a Case Keenum pass, and missed
badly on the attempted tackle. Diggs was able to keep his balance, stay in
bounds and score the first walk-off touchdown in NFL playoff history sending
the Vikings to the NFC Championship game. A hilarious side note to the game was
the importance of the PAT or two-point conversion. Because dejected Saints
players walked off the field with the game technically unfinished, the Mike
Zimmer-led respectful Vikings elected to kneel rather than kick or attempt two
points. That means the Saints (+5) lost by five and Las Vegas got the push.
About the only thing more miraculous than the ending to this game is how Las
Vegas continues to do this on a weekly basis.
Stay
tuned for Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis) CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION coming Sunday.
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