2017
NFL SEASON
D I V I S I O N A L R O U N D
Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Wild Card Round: 2-2 wins; 3-1 v. spread
Note/Key: Statistical
analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF);
points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed
(YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).
That's right, Matt Ryan, you're the first road favorite against a top conference seed in NFL history, which means the NFL flavor-of-the-month could see a few flying batteries.
Saturday, 4:35 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia,
PA (Weather: Clearing; high 30s)
Reasons:
The Falcons seem like the hottest team in the NFL right now, and the case could
be made; Atlanta is 4-1 over their last five games and has only allowed an
average of 16.8 ppg over that span. Conversely, the Eagles went from the favorites
to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl with MVP-candidate quarterback Carson
Wentz at the helm to losing Wentz for the season and going 3-2 over their last
five games of the regular season with an average point differential of 0.2 ppg
over that span, compared to having the best point differential in the NFL
during the regular season (10.1 ppg).
Neither team gets after the quarterback consistently, although the Falcons seemed
to have found a new gear over their last several games, but the Eagles
league-leading run defense should put the game squarely on Matt Ryan’s
shoulders. That could go either way because although Ryan is inconsistent at
best, the Eagles pass defense is mediocre at best and Mohammed Sanu has become
a serious threat opposite Julio Jones. The Falcons have a slight advantage in
the kicking game, but equalizing atmospheric pressure will create just enough
wind to make kicking a challenge, so the game could come down to two extremely
important, but often overlooked stats: time of possession and turnovers. If the
Falcons (18th) can secure
the ball as well as the Eagles did all year (4th) and keep the Eagles from hoarding the ball (1st in time of possession)
this game could come down to something as silly as a missed extra point. Having
said that, the suddenly hot Falcons could realistically come in and destroy the
rested-in-a-negative-way Eagles, lest we forget, no top seed has ever been an
underdog in their opening playoff game.
"I don't really give a shit, Tom, I can't have Guerrero telling my players that hydration cures sunburns. And your jealousy over Jimmy G screwed me."
Tennessee Titans #5 (+13.5) @
New England Patriots #1 (48): Patriots 27-20
Saturday, 8:15 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 70% rain; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Patriots come into the game banged up with a patchwork offensive line and
key skill position guys either missing or questionable (O: Chris Hogan, Rex Burkhead, James White; D: Alan Branch, Marquis
Flowers) and the Patriots are still going to manhandle the Titans. I could
go on analytically for paragraphs why the Patriots match up well with Tennessee and
will overwhelm the Titans in every aspect of the game Saturday, save perhaps the
Titans 4th-ranked run defense, which would only put more of the onus
on Tom Brady to step up, which has never been a problem in the first place, but
especially not when a young cocky defensive player from the opposition (Free safety Kevin Byard) opens his mouth
during the week and provides bulletin material. Truth be told, the media
provided all the bulletin material the Patriots needed to galvanize the team
with the bombshell story that the Patriots had cracked from within and that ownership,
Brady and Bill Belichick were at serious odds. Even if true, which it very well could be, to think the Patriots won’t use this excuse to circle the wagons would
mean you haven’t been paying attention to New England since Bill Belichick took
over. The Patriots only statistical weakness is yardage allowed, including
the worst pass defense in the NFL despite a defensive backfield that boasts
Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler and Patrick Chung; much of
that can be explained away by garbage yardage statistics perpetuated by teams
desperately trying to come back on a team that beat their opponenets by an average of 10
ppg this season, best in the NFL. The Titans only chance of winning in
Foxborough Saturday is if their 5th-ranked pass rush (43 sacks) gets to Brady early and often
and Derrick Henry carries the ball 40 times and burns 38 or more minutes of the
clock. Neither is out of the realm of possibilities.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are inexplicably favored by a touchdown against the best defense in the NFL, which means we could be seeing a lot of this Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (+7) @ Pittsburgh
Steelers #1 (41):
Jaguars 24-23
Sunday, 1:05
PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
20% snow; low 20s)
Reasons:
Star running back Le’Veon Bell was out of this game until the late hours of
Friday night, meaning that even if he plays he’s not going to be 100%. Spare me
the “No one is 100% at this point in the season” talk because no one is randomly
listed as “OUT” if they only have a few scratches. Guess who else is questionable?
Antonio Brown. That’s only the Steelers two best skill position players. Center
Maurice Pouncey was listed as OUT Friday night as well, meaning the Steelers
would have their work cut out for them against the Cleveland Browns, let alone
the best defense in the NFL. The Jaguars come into Pittsburgh, a team they beat
30-9 while intercepting Ben Roethlisberger five times Week 5, ranked 2nd
in points allowed, yards allowed sacks, and interceptions, respectively, while boasting the league’s
top pass defense. Offensively the Jaguars rank 6th in yards gained (366 ypg), 5th in points
scored (26.1), 3rd in
point differential (9.2), and 2nd
in red zone efficiency. Using statistical analysis and taking the Steelers attrition
at key positions into account, not to mention the shell of the former defense
the Steelers ave been without Ryan Shazier, and I can’t come up a single reason
why the Steelers would be giving seven points to the Jaguars. Even the argument
that the Steelers match up with or surpass the Jaguars by the same metrics,
and are playing at home, doesn’t explain seven points, especially when Pouncey,
Bell and Brown could be less than 100% or even absent. Las Vegas is really
leaning on Pittsburgh’s top-ranked pass rush and 5th-ranked pass
defense to beat up on poor old Blake Bortles. Even if true, I wouldn’t hang my
hat on that against this Jaguars defense, and certainly not for seven or more points.
Drew Brees has become arguably the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history, which is what it'll take to beat one of the greatest single-season defenses in NFL history.
New Orleans Saints #4 (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings #2 (46.5): Saints 24-21
Reasons:
How lucky are the New Orleans Saints? Not only do they get the 4:40 Sunday
afternoon slot again this week, but also get an away game in the comfy
confines of a domed stadium, just like home. And before we go on and on about
how great the Vikings defense is, and it most certainly is (allowing 11.4 ppg over their last five games),
let’s not forget two things: The Minnesota Vikings are basically noobs at this
playoff thing as of late, while the Sean Payton-Drew Brees combo is most
certainly not new to this playoff thing, while Drew Brees is becoming the greatest
statistical quarterback we’ve ever seen. Much of Brees’ career has been plagued
by the presence of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but the truth is Brees holds
the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in NFL history and is
slowly creeping up on the greats in many other passing metrics, which isn’t
surprising considering Brees has thrown for over 5,000 yards five times; no
other quarterback comes close. Any time you have a transcendent player like
Brees anything is possible, and this Saints defense is quietly becoming as
interesting as the vaunted Vikings defense. Consider: The Vikings are ranked 2nd
in both total defense (276 ypg) and
scoring defense (15.8 ppg), but aren’t
really ball hawks and don’t really get after the quarterback; the Saints give
up far more yards, but rank 10th in points allowed (20.4 ppg) and are top-seven in the NFL in both
sacks (42) and interceptions (20; 5th). While we’re at it,
though, we might as well praise a Vikings offense that surprisingly keeps pace
with the Saints, much in the same way the Saints defense keeps pace with the
Vikings defense. The Vikings are no barn burners, but they rank 11th in
yards (357 ypg), 10th in
points scored (23.9 ppg), 9th
in red zone efficiency (44%), 3rd
in third-down efficiency and were 15 seconds of ball possession per game from being the league leader. So while the Saints defense stacks up against the defense
the media has raved about all season, the same could be said about the Vikings
offense relative to the high-flying Saints. Expect an amazing game where the
experience of Sean Payton and Drew Brees play out right on that beautiful domed dry
turf grass.
Stay
tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 19 #NFL Reviews DIVISIONAL
ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday.
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