Week 9: #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 9
results (season): 9-4 wins (90-43-1 .671); 6-7 v. spread (60-73-1 .448)
New Orleans Saints
3-4 (-3)
@ Carolina Panthers 3-4-1 (49): Panthers
24-21 Saints 28-10
Thursday, 8:25 PM, B of A
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Clear;
low 50s)
Reasons: This is the
first game between the two teams that battled for the NFC South division through
2013, with the 12-4 Panthers taking the crown over the 11-5 Saints (both teams made the playoffs). It’s not
exactly the battle everyone expected when the schedules came out this year, as
both teams come in with losing records, but the division is still up for grabs,
which actually makes Thursday night’s game critical. The Saints still have
their juggernaut offense, ranking in the top-10 in passing offense (2nd) and scoring offense (5th). The problem is key
injuries at running back (Khiry Robinson
and Pierre Thomas) basically make that 7th-ranked rushing
offense obsolete. The Saints much-criticized defense actually has the league’s
10th-ranked run defense, which could come in handy against a
Panthers’ run game (27th)
that has been hurting - literally.
The Panthers are looking to get their running game back on track with DeAngelo
Williams returning after missing the last five games, but it won’t be easy with
such a banged-up offensive line. The Panthers are statistically bad, ranking
near the bottom of the league in both scoring offense (24th) and defense (25th),
but their +4 turnover ratio has kept them in games, something the Panthers
should take advantage of v. the
Saints (-6 turnover ratio). Carolina
should also take advantage of the Saints 31st-ranked pass defense,
which must have Cam Newton and rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin drooling. I
expect the Panthers defense, which played well at home v. the Seahawks last week, to continue that trend, to capitalize on
those turnovers, and to beat a Saints team that doesn’t play well on the road (0-4).
So much for the Saints playing poorly on the
road. That said, this game was more about how badly the Panthers played at
home. Carolina’s offense mustered only 231 offensive yards and the Panthers’
formerly vaunted defense gave up 7.1 yards per play. These Panthers –
specifically Cam Newton – are in trouble.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-6 (+6.5) @ Cleveland Browns 4-3 (43.5): Browns 27-20 Browns
22-17
Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny,
low 40s)
Reasons: The Cleveland
Browns are a better football team than most people want to give them credit
for, and the Buccaneers are, well, horrible. One of the worst statistical teams
in the NFL, the Buccaneers have lost two games by over 30 points so far this
year. The Browns, on the other hand, have won many close battles, and finally
have the talent to justify the close wins. It shouldn’t be too close today.
So it ended up being closer than expected, but
then again the Bucs are far worse than expected, so perhaps all is right with
the NFL universe. Brian Hoyer threw for 300 yards and 2 TDs, once again
silencing the critics…for this week
Arizona Cardinals 6-1 (+1) @ Dallas Cowboys 6-2 (44): Cardinals 24-23 Cardinals 28-17
Sunday, 1 PM, AT&T Stadium,
Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Cowboys
could be starting their November-December slide early this year, as they
dropped their last game in October, albeit after six straight wins, to the
lowly Washington Natives and third-string quarterback Colt McCoy in overtime
Sunday. They face an Arizona Cardinals team that doesn’t stand out statistically,
but finds ways to win, usually as a function of turnovers (+9). Consider Tony Romo probably won’t
play due to the back injury he suffered v.
Washington and Arizona excels at stopping the run (3rd), and you pretty much have your winner. (Yes, I picked the same score v. the Eagles).
I’ll spare the Romo-less Cowboys the “annual
slide” jokes and just leave at this: the Arizona Cardinals are a great football
team. Period. Andre Arrington outrushed DeMarco Murray in both total yardage
and average, and the Cardinals defense held the Cowboys to 266 offensive yards,
and forced Brandon Weeden into two INTs.
Philadelphia Eagles 5-2 (-1.5) @ Houston Texans 4-4 (48.5): Eagles 27-24 Eagles 31-21
Sunday, 1 PM, Reliant Stadium,
Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Eagles
looked like they were rounding into form when the beat the New York Giants 27-0
Week 6 going into their bye week, but then they ran into the Cardinals on the
road and lost a tight battle, in which question resurfaced about the Eagles’
abilities to sustain the injuries they’ve suffered. The Texans aren’t a
juggernaut, but they have a similar style to the Cardinals on both sides of the
ball, and don’t turn the ball over (+4),
something Philadelphia does far too much of (-7). Eagles win a close one on the road.
Philadelphia won the battle, but may have lost
the proverbial war, as Nick Foles was lost for at least four weeks after breaking
his collarbone in the first half. That said, Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez (a.k.a.”
I Was Drafted 5th, Remember?”) threw for 202 yards and 2 TDs in his
wake, and there have been rumors the front office is growing weary of Foles.
Huh? Anyway, LeSean McCoy stayed on track, rushing for 117 yards, and Jeremy
Maclin (6 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TDs) lit it up. It’s not looking good for Houston –
Arian Foster was injured (again) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 sacks; 1 INT) has been
replaced by Ryan Mallet for Week 10.
New York Jets 1-7 (+9) @ Kansas City Chiefs 4-3 (42): Chiefs 24-17 Chiefs
24-10
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: Windy, high 50s)
Reasons: Wow, the Jets
bad. At -15 on the season, the Jets “lose” their games by an average of 11
points per game (29-18) and have one
win, the first game of the season, against the lowly Oakland Raiders, who have
since surpassed the Jets in play. The quarterback situation alone in New York
is enough to call the game, with out even discussing Kansas City’s mercurial
rise over the past few games, save one close lose at San Francisco, which has
reestablished them among the league’s elite teams – statistically. Chiefs roll, but the prideful Jets cover.
The Chiefs seem to be rounding into mid-season
form, while the Jets seem poised to sabotage Rex Ryan’s last year with the New
York Jets. The one shining light may have been the performance of Percy Harvin,
recently acquired from the Seahawks, but it’s only a matter of time before the
two poisons known as Percy Harvin and the New York Jets collide and provide
enough material for New York beat writers for the next 50 years.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-7 (+10.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-2-1 (43.5): Bengals 27-17 Bengals
33-23
Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Reasons: The Jaguars are
improving, but even that modest improvement won’t be enough to beat a Bengals
team that is more difficult to project than New England weather. Speaking of
New England, the Patriots are the team that sent the Bengals into a tailspin
Week 4; the Bengals went 0-2-1 in their next three games, their two losses
coming by an average of 27 points. Then the Bengals go and beat the Baltimore
Ravens 27-24 and get the Jaguars Week 9. Don’t get me wrong, there’s always potential
for a trap game here, with the Browns up next, but the Jaguars are just too
bad, and Cincinnati is home.
The day belonged to Jeremy Hill, who rushed for
154 yards and 2 TDs, outshining Denard Robinson, yes that Denard Robinson, who
rushed for 94 and a TD himself. The Jaguars have some things to be happy about,
but they have nothing to do with their current record.
San Diego Chargers 5-3 (+2) @ Miami Dolphins 4-3 (45): Chargers 24-21 Dolphins 37-0
Sunday, 1 PM, Sun Life Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons: This game could
be the toughest game to call this week. These two teams couldn’t contrast more
on offense: San Diego has one of the worst running games in the NFL (30th), mostly a function of
injuries at running back, but quarterback Philip Rivers has the Chargers
passing game ranked 8th; conversely, the Dolphins have one of the
worst pass games in the league (25th),
but have one of the strongest running
games in the NFL (6th).
Defensively, they’re identical. Both teams stop the run (SD – 6th; MIA- 3rd), and both teams are mediocre
at stopping the pass, which will play into San Diego’s favor. The Chargers were
once a part of the revolving door of “NFL’s best team”, and after dropping two
in a row, they’re looking to get back there with a statement win over the
Dolphins, who are a lot better than most people realize. Then again, the
Chargers are flying from San Diego to Miami for the daunting “early afternoon”
game.
Philip Rivers, many pundits candidate for
early-season MVP, threw for 138 yards and 3 INTs, and was sacked three times on
their way to the worst Chargers’ performance this season. The Chargers’
supposedly stout defense gave up 441 yards of offense and 37 points through the
3rd quarter, until both teams called it quits and went through the 4th
quarter motions. The Chargers are now 5-4 after taking the early season title.
Washington Natives 3-5 (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings 3-5 (43.5): Vikings 24-21 Vikings 29-26
Sunday, 1 PM, TFC Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny, high 40s)
Reasons: Ugh. Let’s put
it this way. I would’ve have picked the Vikings to win even if the Natives were starting McCoy, but
the fact that the front office insists on starting RGIII, over head coach Jay
Gruden’s wishes, and the team was involved in a team bus accident on their way
to the stadium seals it.
Matt Asiata went in from 1 yard out with 3:27
left to seal the win in a game that saw six lead changes. RGIII showed he’s
still a work in progress, but at least he has DeSean Jackson to throw to (120
receiving yards, 2 TDs). Alfred Morris added 92 rushing yards and 2 TDs to the
Native’s effort, which came up short yet again. Word on the street is the RGIII
nod came from above, which didn’t sit well with the team. Maybe RGIII should
stop calling it his team.
St. Louis Rams 2-5 (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 4-3 (44): 49ers 28-21 Rams
13-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons: Not quite sure
about a 9.5 point spread, but I certainly see the 49ers winning. The Rams used
some trickery to beat the Seahawks, but then the Seahawks aren’t really as good
as people thought they were. The 49ers are coming off a crushing defeat, but
the Broncos actually are for real, made even more real this season by the
embarrassing loss they suffered at the hands of the aforementioned Seahawks.
Confused? So am I about the spread. The 49ers defense is still elite, which
cannot be said for the Rams (31st-ranked
scoring defense), not to mention the turnover ration differences between
the two teams (SF +4; STL -3), but
9.5 points?
Talk about a tough division. The 49ers v.
Seahawks NFC Championship game was widely considered the Super Bowl by many
fans and experts alike, and these Rams have now beaten both of them in the past
three weeks. If I had told you Austin Davis would throw for 105 yards and Tre
Mason would lead all rushers with 65 yards, you assume the 49ers defense
balled. They did, that’s the problem. Colin Kaepernick fumbled the ball at the goal
line, a microcosm of their offense throughout the game, and the Rams recovered
for the victory.
Denver Broncos 6-1 (-3) @ New England Patriots 6-2 (54): Patriots 28-27 Patriots
43-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Gillette
Stadium, Foxboro, MA (Weather: 60% wintry
mix; mid-40s)
Reasons: The public and
the spread might tell one side of the story, but the other side is more
compelling: these two teams are far more evenly matched than any Broncos’ fan
wants to realize. With the exception of excelling at different aspects on the
defensive side of the ball (NE - 2nd-ranked
pass defense; DEN - top-ranked run defense), these two teams excel in the
passing game, have mediocre run games, and “win” their respective games by
nearly identical margins (NE 30-22; DEN
32-20). The major factor here will be weather, as a wintry mix is
forecasted, which will offset the Patriots myriad injuries. The game could come
down to turnovers, as they so often do, and the Patriots excel at that better
than any team in the NFL (+11). If
this game was in Denver, or even if the weather was great, I could see Denver
winning. Not with Mother Nature and Rob Gronkowksi, her human-form of a disruptive
equal, affecting the game.
I’ll keep it short, so as not to appear to be gloating.
The reports on the death of Tom Brady and the New England were greatly exaggerated.
Oakland Raiders 0-7 (+14) @ Seattle Seahawks 4-3 (43): Seahawks 27-17 Seahawks 30-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field,
Seattle, WA (Weather: 60% rain; mid-50s)
Reasons: Again with these
ridiculous spreads. Public betting can certainly confuse people into thinking
that a team like the Seahawks might actually be a two-touchdown favorite over
the Raiders, but football fans know differently. I think. The Seahawks are no
2013 Seahawks, led by a bunch of guys people couldn’t see tucked away in the
Northwest corner, a running back who ate Skittles, a second-year 5’ 10”
quarterback, and a rah-rah coach who’s only real former NFL success was leading
the same Seahawks to the playoffs at 7-9. The Raiders are actually slowly
improving week to week, despite being winless, and losing their last two games
by 10+ points, especially the play of rookie quarterback Derek Carr. All of
that said, I’ll get real. Seahawks roll, I guess I just rant about ridiculous
spreads.
The Seahawks won, but it wasn’t pretty. The
Raiders may be better than many people would care to understand, but they’re
still terrible relative to the reigning Super Bowl champions, who were led in
rushing and receiving yards by one man, Marshawn Lynch, who only had 143
all-purpose yards. In other words, the Seahawks, despite scoring 30 points,
could have some trouble scoring down the road. Perhaps their defense reverts to
their 2013 form and scores the points for the offense if they plan on advancing
as far in 2014.
Baltimore Ravens 6-2 (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3 (47.5): Ravens 27-24 Steelers
43-23
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly cloudy;
high 30s)
Reasons: Statistically
the Ravens should roll the Steelers. Numbers never lie, but they never tell the
whole story, which is that this is a NFC North battle. Remember when these two
team’s running games were in trouble because one team’s RB beat his wife unconscious
and the other team’s two RBs were smoking weed together? Well both teams rank 8th
and 9th in the running games, respectively. That reflection about
sums up what most people know about the league, and how easily it is to predict
division battles between two well-matched teams, let alone a NFC North game
between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
What in Three Rivers is going on with Ben
Roethlisberger? Big Ben has thrown 12 TDs in his last two games after throwing
10 in his first six games. Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards, 140 of them to
Antonio Brown, outshining Joe Flacco (303 passing yards, 2 TDs) in a rout that
included 21 4th-quarter points (34 4th-quarter points
total).
Indianapolis Colts 5-3 (-3) @ New York Giants 3-4 (50.5): Colts 28-24 Colts 40-24
Monday,
8:30 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clear, mid-40s)
Reasons: Don’t let the
Colts’ 51-34 loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh and the aerial display by Ben
Roethlisberger fool you, Indianapolis is good. The Colts had won their previous
five games by an average of 18 ppg and ranked in or around the top-10 in all
six major points and yardage categories before “Big Ben” went real big and
destroyed the Colts, and the defensive pride they had built up. The one thing
the Colts don’t do well is defend the pass, so Eli Manning could have a big
day. The Giants are also coming off their bye week, and two straight losses, so
Tom Coughlin should have them well prepared. Then again, the last thing these
Giants probably needed was over two weeks off. The Giants will make the Colts
uncomfortable, but they’re too good to fall to the 3-4 Giants, who are still a
work in progress.
So I nailed the winner, and the Giants’ score,
but forgot how terrible the Giants’ defense is when they can’t get to the
quarterback. Andrew Luck continued his campaign for early season MVP, throwing
for 354 yards and 4 TDs, keeping him on a record-setting pace. Eli Manning
threw for 359 yards and 2 TDs himself, but much of that came in garbage time.
If these Giants don’t figure out their new offense quick, they’ll be looking to
2015, and with Odell Beckham Jr., the loss of Victor Cruz can’t be much of an
excuse.
See you Thursday and again Sunday for Week 10: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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