Thursday night kicks off Week 6 with two of the best young stars in the game. Too bad it's Thursday night. Ask Arian Foster about it.
Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 6
results: 11-3-1 wins (60-30-1 .659); 9-5-1 v. spread (39-51-1 .429)
Indianapolis Colts
3-2 (-2.5)
@ Houston Texans 3-2 (46.5): Colts
24-21 Colts 33-28
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Reliant
Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Texans have
lost three straight games to the Colts by an average of 12 ppg, including a
25-3 blowout in their last meeting in December. In fact, since the beginning of
the Watt/Luck era in 2011, clearly the two biggest stars from their respective teams
playing tonight’s game, the Texans are 1-3 v.
the Colts. However, the game is at Reliant Stadium, the site of that lone win (12/16/2012 29-17). The Colts defense (16th pass defense; 12th
run defense) is much better than advertised, and they only give up 22
points per game (14th),
which is more points than the Texans score
(21, good for 23rd in the NFL).
The Texans defense is worse than
advertised, and ranks near the bottom of the league in run defense (25th), but are still one of
the more difficult defenses to score points against (4th), which will provide a great test on the road for
the league’s top scoring offense. Andrew Luck and the Colts top-rated passing
offense will try to overcome the noise and slice up the Texans’ 20th-ranked
passing defense, and if the Texans stand any chance, they’ll need to stifle
that pass game and lean heavy on the run, one of the only other things the
Texans excel at (11th). Then there’s
the matter of Thursday night, highly criticized this week by one Arian Foster,
coincidentally the start running back on one of tonight’s featured teams. OK,
it’s no coincidence, but the message is clear: the NFL and affiliate networks
may pimp the Thursday Night game (TNF),
but not only do the players hate it, they’re not ready for it. As if we needed Foster to tell us that. The winning
team is beating their TNF opponents by 24 points in 2014, and the average TNF
margin of victory is 17 points the last three years. There’s a reason the teams
average five turnovers on TNF and the road team usually gets killed - these
guys can’t even walk until Wednesday, let alone play on Thursday. That applies
to the home team, too, don’t forget, and I feel it would effect a JJ Watt far
before an Andrew Luck this time, because Luck suffered only five QB hits last
week (resulting in one sack). The
Colts are just hot enough to deviate from the TNF trend and win their fourth
straight game.
It wasn’t a blowout, but the Texans have now
lost four straight games to the Colts, and Andrew Luck shined again (370
passing yards, 3 TDs). So did JJ Watt, who returned as fumble recovery for a
TD, continuing his remarkable season. This proved to be one of the most
exciting Thursday night games so far in 2014, as it stayed competitive
throughout. The Colts ultimately won, putting themselves in prime position to
control the AFC South as the first half of the season is nearly completed.
Carolina Panthers 3-2 (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 3-1 (43.5): Bengals 24-20 TIE
37-37
Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 30% rain; low
60s)
Reasons: Once considered
the best team in the NFL, just last week as a matter of fact, the Bengals came
crashing down to Earth at Gillette last week and no longer scare anyone, not
that they did anyway. They should be, however, as they still boast the league’s
5th-ranked defense, and score 24 ppg (ranked 13th),
which is exactly what the Panthers give up (ranked
18th). Carolina is coming off a big win after two straight
losses, but they had to come back down 21-7 to do it. Both teams force turnovers,
but both teams are in triage, with major players questionable for both teams on
both sides of the ball. Bengals win a close one at home.
Nobody likes a tie, but the Carolina Panthers
sure loved this one. Mike Nugent missed a 37-yards FG with just under three
minutes left in OT to preserve the tie for Carolina. The Panthers defense
clearly still has issues, giving up 37 points, including a TD play to Giovanni
Benard, which ended up being the longest play from scrimmage so far in 2014.
That’s not what the Panthers defense was planning on being known for so far
this season. The Bengals played the Panthers tough at home, but after last
week’s embarrassing loss to the Patriots, a home tie is nothing to be happy
about, especially in that fashion. The Bengals are no longer the best team in
football, but a lose and a tie to New England and Carolina is nothing to panic
about.
New England Patriots 3-2 (-2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 3-2 (45): Patriots 23-20 Patriots 37-22
Sunday, 1 PM, Ralph Wilson
Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny, low
60s)
Reasons: The Patriots
rebounded last week v. the Bengals, but there are still major questions,
especially on the offensive line, where the Bills excel. The Bills are the
second-ranked run defense and the 8th-ranked scoring defense. The
Patriots will try to throw (ranked 20th) as the Bills’
secondary is hobbled, as is Brandon Spikes, who the Patriots will undoubtedly
target throughout the game. Both teams are +6 in turnover ratio, so the game
could come down to a key turnover. It’s the battle for AFC East supremacy Week
6, and for once it’s an actual battle…between Tom Brady and Kyle Orton.
It was a bittersweet win for the Patriots, who
beat the Bills yet again, but lost two key players in the victory. Linebacker
Jared Mayo and running back Steven Ridley were both lost for the season, both
to knee injuries. Surprisingly Rob Gronkowski didn’t after the Bills defenders
continually targeted the tight end’s knees. Tom Brady was brilliant for the
second straight game (361 passing yards, 4 TDs), and the Patriots defense held
the Bills running game, and Sammy Watkins, in check for the solid road win
against a Bills team that is much better than in year’s past.
Jacksonville Jaguars 0-5 (+4) @ Tennessee Titans 1-4 (43): Titans 24-17 Titans 16-14
Sunday, 1 PM, LP Field, Nashville,
TN (Weather: 60% storms; mid-70s)
Reasons: Easily the worst
game of Week 6, both of these teams have combined for one win and rank in the
bottom five in the NFL in both scoring offense and defense. In fact, the
Jaguars are 31st and last, respectively. To boot, this is the one
game that will be affected by weather, with a 60% chance of severe storms. So
there will be some excitement.
The worst game of the week lived up to its
billing, although the Jaguars nearly got their first win of the season. The
Jaguars are certainly a team on the rise, not that they had anywhere else to
go, and they almost took advantage of a hobbled team that doesn’t have much to
go with to begin with.
Baltimore Ravens 3-2 (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-4 (43.5): Ravens 24-21 Ravens
48-17
Sunday, 1 PM, Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny,
high 80s)
Reasons: The Buccaneers
are getting better, but it doesn’t look that way on paper. Statistically one of
the worst teams in the NFL, losing their games by an average of 11 points, the
Bucs have showed some fight of late, and have had some semblance of the team
people expected in 2014 (that is, much
better than they’ve been thus far). The ravens are actually a good team,
despite all the outside noise brought on by them, and have the 8th-ranked
run defense and allow the 3rd-fewest points (16 ppg). All this points to an easy Ravens win, which mean the Bucs
will probably pull it off.
Oh boy. Just when we thought Lovie Smith had
turned things around for the better in Tampa Bay after a few embarrassing
losses, the Buccaneers were up to their old new tricks in 2014, giving up 28
points on four passing TDs…in the first quarter. The score was 35-0 at the
half, on five Joe Flacco TD passes, and long over. Not really much else to say.
The Buccaneers continue to battle the Raiders and Jaguars for NFL supremacy…of
irrelevance.
Denver Broncos 3-1 (-9) @ New York Jets 1-4 (48): Broncos 28-20 Broncos 31-17
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny, low 60s)
Reasons: Really? Well,
actually, the Jets will cover. Pretty beastly pass rush. That is all.
It’s amazing the impression score can give you.
Yes, the Broncos covered, but not as easily as it might appear. The Jets were
down 24-17 and making moves to tie the game before the Geno circus rolled in
just in time to throw is heart-breaking pick-6 to make it a seemingly lopsided
31-17 win. Truth be told, it was rather lopsided, but the Jets had their chances,
and the score belies the fact that this game could have eaily had a much
different outcome. The Jets may be laughable, but they’re a tough out; on the
other hand, the Broncos might seem intimidating, but they just don’t seem as
intimidating as their 2013 squad.
Detroit Lions 3-2 (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings 2-3 (43.5): Lions 20-18 Lions 17-3
Sunday, 1 PM, TCF Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny, high 60s)
Reasons: The Lions might
be the worst statistically dominant team in the NFL. The Lions rank in the
top-10 in passing yards (10th),
passing yards allowed (6th),
run defense (3rd), and
scoring defense (2nd) yet
don’t scare anyone. They lost to the Bills at home 17-14 with all that firepower. Apparently Megatron does make that much a difference, and
he’s out today, or at least useless. Reggie Bush is also questionable, which,
combine with Detroit’s shaky play has the Vikings getting a point at home,
despite being more inconsistent than Detroit, with much less talent. That said,
I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota squeaked it out.
Ewww. The Vikings really stunk this game up,
and the Lions were without their two best offensive weapons (Calvin Johnson and
Reggie Bush). You have to give the Lions credit for going on the road hobbled
and playing a sometimes-tough Vikings team hard, getting the solid road win
against a divisional opponent, but if Mike Zimmer’s comments are any
indication, it didn’t take much of an effort to beat these Vikings. Considering
this, the Lions clearly still have some work to do if they want to be included
among the league’s elite teams. The record might be there, but the numbers
aren’t.
Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2 (+1) @ Cleveland Browns 2-2 (47): Browns 27-24 Browns 31-10
Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny,
high 50s)
Reasons: One of the great
divisional match ups of Week 6, a rematch of the Week 1 battle in which the
Steelers were up 27-3 before the Browns clawed back and made it 27-27 before
Shane Suisham kicked the game-winning FG as time expired in the 4th
quarter. Both of these teams have strengths and weaknesses, and many play into
each other. For example, the Steelers rank in the top-10 in both passing and
rushing yards; the Browns rank towards the bottom of the league defending both.
The Steelers turn the ball over (-1),
and the Browns take it away (+3).
It’s interesting to point out that the Steelers “win” their games by an average
score of 23-22; the Browns “tie”, 26-26. Statistically this game points towards
the Steelers, but I expect another battle; this time the Browns will come away
with the close win.
My proudest pick of the week simply represents
how far the Browns have come. Once the laughingstock of the league and a
perennial doormat for the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Browns beat the Steelers
soundly Sunday, and with their own smash-mouth medicine. The Browns torched the
Steelers on the ground (158 rushing yards), and beat them down on 38 carries,
good for 68% of their plays. These two teams seemed headed in opposite
directions Sunday, which is the greatest deviation from the norm in my lifetime
of watching the NFL.
Green Bay Packers 3-2 (-3) @ Miami Dolphins 2-2 (49): Packers 28-24 Packers 27-24
Sunday, 1 PM, Sun Life Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: 20% rain; mid-80s)
Reasons: All of a sudden
the Packers are a top-10 team (statistically),
ranking 7th in scoring offense and 10th in scoring
defense. In fact, the Packers have improved so much on defense they now
rankb7th against the pass, too. Too bad they rank last v. the run, something
the Dolphins will surely attack today. The Dolphins are no slouches themselves,
ranking in the top-10 in rushing yards (5th)
and passing yards allowed (9th),
the latter being the key v. the
Packers quickly improving pass game. The Dolphins may be built for the Packers,
but I don’t buy this “northern teams can’t handle October heat” argument. The
Dolphins are decent, but the Packers are quickly getting good. I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue to return to his 2012
form.
A close battle to the end, Aaron Rodger’s trick
spike play on the series play of the fooled the Dolphins – and every one in the
world – and set the Packers up for their 4th win of the season.
Expecting the Packers to spike the ball, the Dolphins stood around confused as
Rodgers surprised rookie Davante Adams with a bullet, which Adams caught and
squirmed his way past the first down marker, setting up the Rodgers to tight
end Andrew Quarless TD pass to win the game with three seconds remaining.
San Diego Chargers 4-1 (-7) @ Oakland Raiders 0-4 (43): 28-17 Chargers 31-28
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Oakland Co.
Stadium, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny,
mid-80s)
Reasons: Again, really?
The Raiders are a coach-less joke and the Chargers are one of the best, if not
the best, team in the NFL. San Diego has replaced the Bengals as the popular
choice for “best team in the NFL” not named the Broncos or Seahawks, but
statistically there’s no argument. The Chargers have the 7th-ranked
passing game and the 8th-ranked scoring offense, and that’s not what
they’re best at. The Chargers defense, statistically the best, rank 9th in run defense, 2nd in pass
defense, and lead the league in scoring defense (13 ppg). The Raiders rank in those categories? 31st, 5th,
22nd, respectively. That’s actually pretty good, relatively, as the
Raiders rank last in nearly everything else on the offensive side of the ball.
Some might look to the Raiders 5th-ranked pass defense as hope. I’d
call them fools.
The Chargers might be the best team in the NFL
through six weeks and the Riaders could be the worst. No one told the Raiders.
Despite losing their 6th-straight game to open the 2014 season, the
Raiders fought tough for the second straight week, and also scored 28 points
for the second straight week, nearly coming back to beat their fierce
divisional rivals. Well, fierce in the sense that there’s some history there.
Philip Rivers continued his case for early MVP (313 passing yards, 3 TDs) and the
Chargers survived another game with a decimated backfield (116 rushing yards),
all proving to be too much for the reeling Raiders. One bright spot was the
continued impressive play of rookie Derek Carr (282 passing yards, 4 TDs), who
certainly has a future in this league, a bright one. Let’s hope the Raiders can
eventually protect Derek better than the Texans protected his brother.
Chicago Bears 2-3 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 2-3 (54.5): Falcons 28-27 Bears 27-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Georgia Dome,
Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This game could
be a shoot-out of epic proportions with these two quarterbacks, or we could see
a record amount of INTs. The Falcons are the second-ranked passing offense and
the 3rd-ranked scoring offense, but that’s about it. The Bears are as mediocre as a team can
get, making this a pretty mediocre game all around. These two defenses stink,
however, which should make for a high-flying game. This game will come down to
an epic mistake by Jay Cutler or Matt Ryan, which will probably be Cutler
because the Falcons are home, which usually mean something.
When the Falcons can’t win at home there’s not
much hope for them. Credit the Bears with this win, as Jay Cutler (381 passing
yards, 1 TD), Brandon Marshall (113 receiving yards), Matt Forte (157
all-purpose yards, 2 TDs), Alshon Jeffery (136 receiving yards) and the Bears
defense put the Bears on their shoulders and pulled out the solid win on the
road against a team that doesn’t lose many in their own stadium.
Dallas Cowboys 4-1 (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks 3-1 (47): Seahawks 28-24 Cowboys 30-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Century Link
Field, Seattle WA (Weather: Cloudy, low
60s)
Reasons: Not only is this
the best game of the week, it’s also one of the most evenly matched games. The
Cowboys have quietly, or loudly depending on where you live, become one of the
best teams in the NFL. One of the only three 4-1 teams in the league, the
Cowboys are also a top-10 scoring offense (6th)
and defense (8th), and
boast the league’s 2nd-ranked run game, led by DeMarco Murray. The
Cowboys defense isn’t blowing people away, but the projected worst defense in
the league only allows 21 ppg so far in 2014. The Seahawks are who we thought
they were, except they don’t inspire the same fear in opponents as they did a
year ago, even at home. The Cowboys have plenty of experience with the silent
count, even in their own stadium, so the noise shouldn’t be a problem. Still,
Seattle boasts the leagues top running game, top run defense, and are a top-10
scoring offense (5th) and
defense (9th) themselves.
This game will essentially come down to the Seahawks running the ball and
stopping the Cowboys from running it. That will force Tony Romo to throw; that
will inevitably end in a Romo INT to end the game. Seahawks win, but the
Cowboys cover.
Wow. I expected the mighty Cowboys to cover,
but win? And not only that, but the Cowboys destroyed the Seahawks in Seattle,
despite the score. The Seahawks have not been that outplayed in the two seasons
everyone has been paying attention to them. Tony Romo (250 passing yards, 2 TDs)
stole the show and DeMarco Murray (115 rushing yards, 1 TD) showed the NFL
world he’s for real, pounding the Seahawks defense, especially the so-called
Legion of Boom, and outshined Marshawn Lynch (61 rushing yards) by a long shot.
Russell Wilson may have had his worst game of the season as the Cowboys
defense, reportedly the worst in the NFL coming into 2014, has suddenly come
alive. That might be an exaggeration, actually. The funny thing is the Dallas
defense yields the exact amount of yards per play (6.1) that they did a year
ago when they actually were statistically the worst defense in the NFL. The
difference this year is the Cowboys offense is controli9ng the ball more, which
keps their opponents offense off the field for 12 additional plays so far in
2014, leading to far fewer points given up. Whatever the case, it’s working,
and the Cowboys are suddenly in the conversation as the NFL’s best team. Let’s
see these Cowboys in November/December.
Washington Natives 1-4 (+3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 3-1 (45.5): Cardinals 27-23 Cardinals
30-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix
Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Sunny,
high 80s)
Reasons: The Cardinals
are 3-1, but statistically they’re terrible. In the six statistical categories
highlight most (yards gained/allowed,
points scored/allowed) Arizona ranks in the bottom-10. The Cardinals only excel at stopping
the run (4th) and are
respectable keeping opponents off the scoreboard (13th). Besides that, the Cardinals are only impressive
in turnover ratio (+4). Yet Arizona
sits at 3-1. Conversely, the Natives are a top-10 team in passing yards (5th) and passing yards
allowed (10th), have a
respectable run defense (15th)
and score points (24 ppg), yet
they’re 1-4. Blame that on their defense (26th-ranked
scoring defense) and turnovers (-5).
The Cardinals may be reeling at quarterback, perhaps the Natives saving grace,
but the Natives defense is hobbles, too, so it could wash out.
Carson Palmer returned Sunday and lifted Larry
Fitzgerald to his former self (98 receiving yards, 1 TD), giving the Cardinals
a sort of foundation hey haven’t seen yet in 2014. Fitzgerald scored his first
TD of the season and Palmer returned after missing four weeks, lifting the
Cardinals past the Natives, who are reeling. Kirk Cousins (354 passing yards, 2
TDs), after a strong start to the season after RGIII was lost to an ankle
injury, has been inconsistent to say the least, throwing three crucial INTs,
one to seal the win for the Cardinals. The Cardinals didn’t do anything to
prove they’re any sort of team to be worried about, but they’re 4-1 in the
toughest division in football, and with the 49ers improving and the Seahawks
angry, the Cardinals need all of these types of wins they can get as they prepare
for the inevitable divisional battles.
New York Giants 3-2 (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles 3-2 (50.5): Giants 28-27 Eagles
27-0
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Lincoln
Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Cloudy, low 60s)
Reasons: The other great
divisional match up of Week 6 (PIT v. CLE),
the Giants come into the game one of the hottest teams in the league. After
losing their first two games (to good
teams), New York has rattled off three straight wins. The Eagles, on the
other hand, are a team that could just as easily be 1-4 as they are 4-1. For a
team that scores 31 ppg (2nd
in the NFL), the offense barely has anything to do with it – the Eagles
average a TD a game through defense or special teams. Both of these teams score
points and don’t really stop people from scoring points, so expect a
high-flying game between two bitter divisional rivals. The Eagles also turn the
ball over, which is exactly what I expect them to do v. the Giants, which could
make for some interesting late-game heroics. The Eagles may be at home, but
remember, that actually meant nothing not too long ago.
Whoops. After three straight wins in which the
Giants put any criticism stemming from their first two losses to open the
season to bed, the Giants came to Philadelphia and laid an egg…literally. New
York looked like the Giants everyone was worried about Sunday night, while the
Eagles pulled off the impressive shutout at home, the largest such shutout in
years. The Giants lost Victor Cruz for the season to a knee injury, which could
be devastating. Luckily the Giants drafted Odell Beckham Jr., who should slide
right in for Cruz and take his place without skipping a beat. The Eagles
weren’t exactly blowing anyone’s doors off, but Shady McCoy finally got
involved, rushing for 149 rushing yards. It’s still clogged in the NFC East,
but the Cowboys and Eagles are separating.
San Francisco 49ers 3-2 (-3.5) @ St. Louis Rams 1-3 (44): 49ers 24-20 49ers 31-17
Monday,
8:30 PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis MO (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The Rams can throw the ball (6th)
and are the best team in the NFL against the pass. That’s where the Rams’ skill
set ends. Unfortunately the 49ers are a running team (3rd). The 49ers are also one of the best defenses in the
NFL, ranking 4th v. the pass, 5th v. the run while
holding opponents to only 21 ppg (10th). The 49ers might not have much on
offense (26th-ranked pass
offense; 20th-ranked scoring offense), but the Rams don’t
either, and their defense simply isn’t as good as advertised due to multiple
injuries. I expect the 49ers to win, keeping Jim Harbaugh around a little while
longer.
I guess Jim Harbaugh
keeps his job one more week. Down 17-0 in the second quarter, the 49ers defense
put on a clinic in the second half, shutting down the Rams and shutting them
out in the process. The 49ers reeled off 31 unanswered points to show the team
that tries to emulate their style who’s still the big team on the block…or
conference. The 49ers run game was not on point, but Colin Kaepernick was, and
he continued to improve on the season (343 passing yards, 3 TDs), outplaying a
Rams offense that was starting to show some signs of being pretty good,
especially rookie quarterback Austin Davis. Davis played ok (236 passing yards,
1 TD), but OK will never beat these 49ers, no matter how much is on their
plate.
Check back Thursday and again Sunday for Week 7 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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