Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers could keep pace with the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos this week, or fall two games behind the most complete team in the NFL.
Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 8 results (season): 10-5 wins
(81-39-1 .669); 9-6 v. the spread (54-66-1 .446)
San Diego Chargers
5-2 (+7.5)
@ Denver Broncos 5-1 (51.5): Broncos
27-21 Broncos 35-21
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Mile High
Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Clear,
mid-60s)
Reasons: This could be
the best Thursday Night Football match up to date in 2014, and not just on
paper. These two teams are actually very good – both of them. The Chargers have the chance to tie the Broncos for
the division lead tomorrow night or they could end up two games back at the
mid-season point against a powerful team which will be ahead of the toughest
part of their schedule after their Week 9 game v. the New England Patriots. In other words, this is a big game for
San Diego. The Chargers lost a close game to a solid Chiefs team on a Cairo
Santos 48-yard FG with 21 seconds remaining, and dropped to 5-2; the Broncos
steamrolled the 49ers to improve to 5-1, their third straight blowout win
against solid defenses. These are two of the most evenly matched teams in the
NFL, and they happen to be bitter divisional rivals. Both teams have top-tier
passing games (SD – 6th; DEN –
3rd), but both teams have struggled running the ball (SD – 29th; DEN – 25th),
primarily a function of injuries. Defensively both teams excel, but in
different areas. The Chargers stop the pass (ranked 3rd), which will come in handy versus the Broncos
high-flying attack. The Broncos excel at stopping the run (ranked 3rd), which may not matter much here, save for stopping
Branden Oliver, which could slow the Chargers’ play action pass game. Neither
team allows many points scored against them (SD – 3rd; DEN – 6th), but the Broncos’ 4th-ranked
scoring offense will score just enough to win against a solid AFC West rival.
Hopefully The Curse of Thursday Night doesn’t ruin the potentially epic match
up.
Detroit Lions 5-2 (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 2-5 (47): Lions 24-21 Lions 22-21
Sunday, 9:30
AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This game starts
at 6:30 am if you’re on the west coast, so get your waffles ready. The Lions
were down 23-10 to New Orleans when they scored 14 unanswered points in the
final five minutes of the game, sending the Saints into a tailspin. The Falcons
have been in a tailspin since Week 2. With no defense to speak of the Falcons
don’t stand much of a chance against a statistically dominant Lions team,
especially considering the Falcons aren’t actually at home 4,200 miles away
from Atlanta.
Seattle Seahawks 3-3 (-5) @ Carolina Panthers 3-3-1 (44.5): Seahawks 28-24 Seahawks
13-9
Sunday, 1 PM, B o A Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: To say the
Panthers are reeling is an understatement; their formerly vaunted defense
having yielded 37-38-24-37-38 points to their last five opponents speaks
volumes to that. So if the pattern continues the Panthers should give up 24
point v. the Seahawks, which is about
what the Seahawks average, plus a FG (27
ppg – ranked 8th). That Panthers defense, ranked 2nd
in scoring defense (15.1 ppg) after
2013, ranks near the bottom of the league so far in 2014 (29th – 28 ppg). The Seahawks defense is a shell of its
2013 “self” as well, yielding nearly 10 additional ppg (24 ppg – ranked 19th) relative to the top-ranked 2013
squad (14.4 ppg). When we saw this
game on the schedule a few months ago we rejoiced; now one of these teams will
hit the midway point with a losing record, which is exactly where one of these
teams should be considering how they’ve played.
Chicago Bears 3-4 (+6) @ New England Patriots 5-2 (50): Patriots 28-21 Patriots
51-23
Sunday, 1 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny, high 50s)
Reasons: The Patriots
have quietly climbed back into the ranks of respectable teams, and have the
numbers to back it up, despite one of those wins coming v. the Jets. The Patriots have the 7th-ranked scoring
offense and the 12th-ranked scoring defense, and should have no
problem against an at best mediocre
Bears team that has already started to come apart at the emotional seems, as
they tend to do with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall leading the team. The
Bears only excel in the passing game; the Patriots have the top-ranked pass
defense. The Patriots should roll at home.
St. Louis Rams 2-4 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 3-3 (44): Chiefs 27-21 Chiefs
34-7
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny, low 80s)
Reasons:
The Rams beat the Seahawks last week, which is exactly why they’ll lose on the
road against the Chiefs this week. Coming off an emotional win at home against
the defending Super Bowl champions, the Rams come into the formally loudest 12th
Man in football and play a superior team. Besides a surprisingly good passing
game (ranked 11th),
anchored by rookie quarterback Austin Davis, the Rams are pretty awful. The
Chiefs are not, ranking 2nd in pass defense, 3rd in run
offense and 6th in scoring defense. The Rams may cover, but they
won’t win.
Minnesota Vikings 2-5
(+3)
@ Tampa Buccaneers 1-5 (42): Buccaneers
24-21 Vikings
19-13 (OT)
Sunday, 1 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: One of the
week’s least compelling games, these two teams combine for a 3-10 record and
are categorically last in three major metrics (MIN – passing offense; TB – passing defense and scoring defense).
That’s right, Lovie Smith is coaching the league’s worst statistical defense,
and they’re worst at defending the pass - so much for the famed Tampa-2. Tampa
Bay’s at home and they’ve had two weeks to prepare; that has to be worth
something.
Buffalo Bills 4-3 (+3) @
New York Jets 1-6 (41): Bills
21-17 Bills 43-23
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny, mid-60s)
Reasons: Yet another
snoozer, don’t plan on seeing many conventional points scored in this game. The
Jets one strength – their defense - has wilted towards the bottom of the league
(26th-ranked scoring defense)
to join a Jets offense that has been there since the beginning (28th-ranked scoring offense).
The Bills offense isn’t much better, ranked 24th themselves, but
Buffalo’s 7th-ranked scoring defense, which is anchored by the
league’s 4th-ranked run defense, is the reason they’re about to be
5-3.
Miami Dolphins 3-3 (-6) @
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6 (43): Dolphins
27-20 Dolphins 27-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: Don’t get too
excited about the Jaguars first win. Although the team seems to be improving by
the week, the Dolphins are no joke. Ok, they’re a little joke, but they
shouldn’t be. The Dolphins can stop the run (ranked 3rd),
run the ball (ranked 4th),
rank 10th against the pass, and sit just outside the top-10 in
scoring offense (11th).
The Jaguars are none of those things, ranking in the bottom-five in five of six
major statistical categories, including last in scoring defense. The Dolphins
don’t have to go far to rain on the Jaguars first-win parade.
Houston Texans 3-4 (-2) @
Tennessee Titans 2-5 (43.5): Texans
24-21 Texans 30-16
Sunday, 1 PM, LP Field, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: Another snoozer
slated for Week 8, the Texans are rightfully favored v. the far-from-statistical Titans, which will be starting rookie
Zach Mettenberger against JJ Watt and the NFL’s 8th-ranked passing
defense. That’s about the only compelling matchup in this game.
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
(+1)
@ Cincinnati Bengals 3-2-1 (46): Ravens
27-24 Bengals 27-24
Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny, high 60s)
Reasons: Once a circled
game a few weeks ago, the Bengals have gone from arguably the best team in the
NFL to arguably the worst after three straight games without a win. After
winning their first three games by an average of 15 ppg, Cincinnati has now
lost two games by an average of 27 ppg, and gave up 37 in there tie to
Carolina, a game they should’ve won if not for Mike Nugent’s 37-yard miss with six
seconds remaining. The Ravens, on the other hand, have quietly become one of
the NFL’s best teams, which is hard to argue considering they rank in the
top-10 in passing (9th)
and rushing (7th) offense,
passing defense (7th), and
scoring offense (6th) and
defense (1st). Why are the
Ravens getting one point then, you ask? Because they’re on the road, and the
Bengals do still have most of the players that made them a once-feared team
some three weeks ago. Also, the Bengals force turnovers. However, this is a
game of two trending teams, and you can imagine which teams are trending which direction.
Philadelphia Eagles
5-1 (+2.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 5-1 (48): Cardinals
24-23 Cardinals 24-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Sunny, mid-80s)
Reasons: One of the more
intriguing games of Week 8 is the battle between two 5-1 teams, the NFL’s 8th-ranked
scoring offense (PHI) and 5th-ranked
scoring defense (ARZ), which also
boast the league’s 7th-ranked passing attack (PHI) against its 2nd-ranked pass defense (ARZ). The Eagles are certainly one of
the most interesting teams in the NFL, as their usually winning game plans have
gone to the wayside in lue of defensive touchdowns and special teams scores; in
other words, the complete opposite of what we expected. The Cardinals have
weathered the injury storm to not only stay afloat, but also stay on top of the
challenging NFC West at 5-1 - so much for losing Darnell Dockett and Daryl
Washington. Someone has to lose this game, and the Sharps apparently think
it’ll be Arizona (-2.5 at home), but
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals caught the Eagles slipping on the road
in the desert heat. With Carson Palmer back behind center, Larry Fitzgerald
taking form, and the Eagles Jekyll and Hyde play, it’s not that hard to
believe.
Indianapolis Colts
5-2 (-3)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 (49): Colts
28-24 Steelers 51-34
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny, low 60s)
Reasons: Believe it or
not, the Colts could be the best team in the NFL. Ten teams have to rank in the
top-10 in any statistical category, which may not impress some people. To say
you’re in the 30th percentile isn’t eye-popping, so I understand if
some scoff at top-10 rankings. How about top-5 rankings though? The Colts have
four of those, which obviously include the Colts’ top-ranked pass game and
second-ranked scoring offense. I bet you didn’t realize those same Colts have
the 4th-ranked pass defense, the 9th-ranked run defense,
and the NFL’s 4th-ranked scoring defense? Most people don’t, either.
The Colts’ Achilles Heal has turned out to be a surprising strength, helping
Indianapolis beat their opponents by an average score of 31-19. The same can’t
be said for the Steelers, which have a mediocre defense to compliment a potent
offense led by Le’Veon Bell and the dynamic Antonio Brown. The Steelers have
won close games, but have been blown out in losses, which I expect to occur
tomorrow against the suddenly deadly Colts, who are two early close losses away
from being undefeated.
Oakland Raiders 0-6 (+7) @
Cleveland Browns 3-3 (43.5): Browns
28-21 Browns 23-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny, high 50s)
Reasons: The Browns slip
up and lose to the lowly Jaguars, giving Jacksonville their first win, and
suddenly everyone’s darling from a week ago is back to being some perennial
loser. What’s even more ridiculous is the anointing of Brain Hoyer as the
Browns’ savior, only to be talking about Johnny Football replacing him already
in the case of a bad performance v.
the Raiders! The media can be so ridiculous, hence my blog, which I’m sure
nobody reads. I will agree that if the Browns drop two in a row to the two
worst teams in the NFL that the hype will have been for not, but let’s wait
until Sunday night for that assessment. In the meantime the Browns are a
statistically mediocre team with some emotional wins that can run the ball (ranked 6th), while the
Raiders are an awful team that can sometimes stop the pass (ranked 11th). The Raiders
aren’t careful with the ball (-4),
which is something I expect the Browns (+3)
to take advantage of. Browns get back on track.
Green Bay Packers 5-2
(+1.5)
@ New Orleans 2-4 (55.5): Packers
28-27 Saints 44-23
Sunday, 8:30 PM, SuperDome,
New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: It must be
embarrassing for the 5-2 Packers to be getting 1.5 points against the 2-4
Saints, who are certainly a shell of their former selves, even being on the
road. Then again, it must have been embarrassing for Aaron Rodgers to watch
Alex Smith get drafted before him and then sit behind Brett Favre for four
years, but he endured that, too. The days of me believing in the Saints solely
because they were home currently hold about as much water as that same feeling
for the Atlanta Falcons. In other words, I don’t buy the home field advantage
hype with New Orleans anymore, especially with their number one weapon still
hobbled. The Packers are for real, and Rodgers is just getting warmed up. Expect
a high-scoring affair as both teams have top-10 scoring offenses (GB – 4th; NO – 9th),
and Drew Brees still commands the league’s 2nd-ranked passing
attack, and will go throw-for-throw against the new(er) guy on the block. One
interesting statistic to this game: turnovers. Green Bay leads the NFL in
turnover ratio (+10), while the
Saints are near the bottom (-8). That
could be the name of the game, as it has been for both of these teams so far in
2014.
Washington Natives
2-5 (+9.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys 6-1 (50): Cowboys
30-21 Natives 20-17 (OT)
Monday, 8:30 PM, AT&T
Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints may
rank near the bottom of the league in turnover ratio, but Washington is the worst team in the league (-9, tied with NYJ). The Cowboys don’t
take the ball away much, but if you give them extra chances they’ll kill you.
Dallas enters Monday Night Football as arguably the best team in the NFL, right
there along with the Colts, and just like the Colts, a surprising Dallas defense
has been a big reason for the Cowboys’ first half success. Sitting at 6-1, the
Cowboys have the NFL’s top-ranked running attack to compliment the league’s 5th-ranked
scoring offense. What’s surprising is the Cowboys’ 9th-ranked
scoring defense, which hasn’t squandered any leads, making Tony Romo’s life
much easier. The Natives 4th-ranked passing game is an elusion
perpetuated by Kirk Cousin’s early success; Cousin’s has since lost his job.
The only thing the Natives are good at is stopping the pass, and they’ll soon
be bad at that, too. The Cowboys won’t help their “best team in the NFL” case
this week, but that’s only because of their opponent.
Check back Thursday and again Sunday for Week 9: #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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