2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 4:
9-6 .600 (WINS); 8-7 .533 (ATS); 10-5 .667 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
46-31-1 .597 (WINS); 41-35-2 .541 (ATS); 48-29-1
.613 (O/U)
WEEK 5 TOP 5 GAMES:
4-1 (.750)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
15-9-1 (.625)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
The only chance the Giants have to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots is via the Giants defensive line. Sound familiar?
Miami
Dolphins 1-0 (-17)
@
New England Patriots 1-1 (42): Patriots 30-10
Keys: Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones comes into bitter territory Thursday Night against one of the best defenses the NFL has seen in a few years across from the best QB the NFL has ever seen. No Saquon Barkley. No Wayne Gallman. No Sterling Shepard. No Evan Engram. No problem, right? Wrong. The Giants enter Foxborough with a rookie QB, a 3rd-string rookie RB and one of the worst centers in the NFL to go along with one of the worst collective defenses in the NFL. The Giants have no chance to win. What they do have is a chance to cover, and that would be up to the Giants defensive front, the only semblance of a bright spot on their team not named Saquon or maybe Jones, plays lights out against a porous Patriots offensive line already suffering major attrition. I'm sure Bill Belichick has already thought of this. Patriots fans will be hoping for an early Jones scratch so that Eli Manning can start, and ultimately lose, which would likely mean Manning would retire with a losing record (116-117). Revenge is a dish best served on a SB XLII commemorative plate.
Tennessee Titans 2-3
(+6) @ Denver
Broncos 1-4 (40.5): Titans 23-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
*Dallas Cowboys 3-2
(-7) @ New York
Jets 0-4 (44.5): Cowboys 27-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 20% rain; low 60s)
Keys: I can't recall a 1-4 Steelers teams in my life, let alone one that rushes for fewer than 68 ypg. I can recall, however, when the Steelers have been down to their 3rd-string QB, and it's never looked good. Considering they have to travel across country to play a team with plenty of fire power, despite what they show you. The key will be keeping the pocket clean enough for the statuesque Philip Rivers. Chargers win, but won't cover because they're 1-3-1 ATS despite being favored in every game and are the most aggravting team in the NFL.
Detroit Lions 2-1-1 (+4)
@ Green Bay Packers 4-1 *(47): Packers 24-21
Monday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: You'd be hard-pressed to find a match up between two more mediocre teams with a better collective winning percentage (70+%) than these NFC North residents. One could argue the Lions were one poorly-timed TO call v. Arizona and one or two plays against KC from being 4-0, while the Packers could easily be 5-0 or 0-5. Green Bay destroyed the Cowboys last Sunday night, before nearly letting them come back, so they get a long-ish week to prepare for the Lions, but not as much as the Lions had to prepare for Green Bay coming off their bye week. The Lions are so historically bad I doubt there are any positive bye week numbers to correlate to the Lions winning on MNF, so suffice it to say the Packers are at home against the Lions with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, which is about all you need to know. * = UNDER
BYEs: Buffalo Bills; Chicago Bears; Indianapolis Colts; Oakland Raiders
Keys: Christian McCaffrey is making his case for MVP, but he runs into a Bucs team allowing under 70 ypg so far against some of the best RBs in the league. This game comes down to Tampa's Bay's explosive offense (29.4 ppg) v. the Panthers stout defense and whether or not Run CMC can keep it going. It also comes down to which team will already be thinking about their respective upcoming vacations, a.k.a. bye weeks.
Seattle Seahawks 4-1 (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns 2-3 (46.5): Seahawks 28-23
Sunday,
1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Keys: It's the battle of the 6-foot QBs, both equally hyped, but only one actually deserving of the hype. Russell Wilson is in the middle of a MVP campaign (12 TDs; 0 INTs), while Baker Mayfield is just trying to justify being on my television more than the actual games. Wilson will once again be running for his life, but that's par for the course at this point. If the Seahawks shut down Nick Chubb and the Browns run game like they have every other opponent, the Browns could be coming apart at the seams before midseason. However, if the Browns can get any play action working these Browns WRs could torch the Seahawks secondary. Unfortunately, Mayfield is no longer accurate.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Everyone will be glued to this game except for Chicago Bears fans, becuase the pain of having Mitch Trubisky as their QB over either of these two MVP-caliber QBs is too much to bear. Of course I'm talking about the 2017 NFL Draft in which Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were taken 10th and 12th, respectively. Trubisky was taken 2nd. Gulp. The problem the Chiefs had with the Indianapolis Colts last week was their pass rush and a ball-controlling ground game, something the Texans are more than capable of. The Chiefs are in a tough spot with injuries right now, especially in the trenches, and Houston is the last team they want to face in that position.
It's the return of Bag Man.
Washington
Pigskins 0-5 (-3.5)
@ Miami Dolphins 0-4
(41): Pigskins 20-13
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
30% storms; low 80s)
Keys: Holy shit. Stay away from this game. One could argue for a rally around interim head coach Bill Callahan, but one could argue Bill Callahan is about to burn down what another Gruden built. One could argue the Dolphins have to win sometime, so why not against a reeling Pigskins team, but the Dolphins absolutely suck (-34.4 ppg differential).
Sunday,
1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Neither team gives up the run so Dalvin Cook will have his work cut out for him, but who knows with Jordan Howard, who has fewer than half the yards Cook does, yet is supposedly the feature RB. One would assume the Eagles will try to get it down in the air, but that could be tough, too, because DeSean Jackson is out again. The Vikings could continue the air assault on the Eagles, however, because Philadelphia is decimated in the secondary. I like the Eagles to cover but I'm not sure they can beat this defense in Minnesota. The over seems low one defense is capable of shutting opponents out while the other is capable of returning fumbles the other way. * = PHI COVER
Sunday,
1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: These two teams are much more evenly matched than the uniforms or records would suggest, and much of that has to do with the uncertainty at QB on both sides of the field. Saints QB Teddy Bridgewater can be inconsistent and Jaguars rookie QB Garder Minshew can be magical. Still, the point spread is pretty confusing, and by all accounts, has been bet in favor of the Jaguars all week. Leonard Fornette could get the run game going early and set up the play action all day long, or the Saints secondary could shut the Jaguars down and force them to run the ball, and Fournette doesn't always do well carrying loads.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Chance rain; low 60s)
Keys: Do we really give the Bengals a chance to win? No. Do we give the Bengals a chance to cover? Maybe. The Ravens had lost two in a row after starting 2-0, and nearly lost to a Pittsburgh Steelers team using the 3rd-string QB, so expect them to make an example out of the Bengals, who seem to have a close game-blowout-close game-blow out theme going and we've come to the blow out portion of the theme.
Los Angeles' No. 1 draft pick and $100M man Jared Goff has looked terrible in recnt weeks despite gaudy passing numbers.
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: 49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk was injured during MNF and with him went the 49ers offense. Todd Gurley was injured several years ago apparently, and the Rams offense has been sputtering ever since. Now the two young teams and futures of the NFC rife with hot young coaching talent take the field to see who has the bigger brain. The answer is Kyle Shanahan, but it's the loss of the other Kyle on the 49ers that could really slow the San Fransisco offense and let these overrated Rams squeak out a win at home. The only thing standing in their way is one of the best defenses in the NFL, who happen to match up great with all the Rams weapons. This is to say nothing of the Rams decimated offensive line and Goff's less then stable pocket presence under pressure. The 49ers will lose at some point, but it won't be against these Rams. * = SF COVER
Atlanta
Falcons 1-4
(-2.5)
@ *Arizona Cardinals 1-3-1
(51.5): Cardinals 23-21
Keys: The biggest question about this game is why the O/U is 51.5. Both teams average 20 ppg and allow an average of 29 ppg, so Las Vegas apparently expects these teams to have breakout offensive performances against each other despite being incapable of it. I get it, Matt Ryan accounted for four TDs alone last week and the Cardinals scored 26 points, but I'll be quick to point out those 26 points were the second highest total of the season and third highest total didn't come close, while no one expects four more total TDs out of Matt Ryan for the next month. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS this season, including the only other game they were favored in; expect more of the same for a Falcons team with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. * = ARZ COVER
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Who the hell knows what to expect with the Titans week-to-week, but what we should expect this week is for the Titans secondary to shut down the Broncos WRs and either make them one-dimensional or force Joe Flacco to make terrible decisions, which he's really good at. Mariota stands no chance against Von Miller et al so Derrick Henry could have a day, if he can handle the altitude.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 20% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Sam Darnold returns from his middle school kissing disease to his winless Jets team facing a do-or-die Cowboys team with four-fold the talent. This is the perfect game for Dak Prescott to get his contract stock back up, but Ezekiel Elliot might struggle with a decimated offensive line facing a Jets team that only allows fewer than 88 rushing yards per game. The seven-point spread says more about the reeling Cowboys than it says about the hapless Jets, so Dallas might want to get their act together before this 3-0 start slips away into infamy somewhere near the beaches of Cabo. * = DAL COVER
Philip Rivers has looked his age at times this season, which is old in NFL terms.
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-4
(+7) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-3
(41): Chargers 27-21
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Stub Hub
Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)Keys: I can't recall a 1-4 Steelers teams in my life, let alone one that rushes for fewer than 68 ypg. I can recall, however, when the Steelers have been down to their 3rd-string QB, and it's never looked good. Considering they have to travel across country to play a team with plenty of fire power, despite what they show you. The key will be keeping the pocket clean enough for the statuesque Philip Rivers. Chargers win, but won't cover because they're 1-3-1 ATS despite being favored in every game and are the most aggravting team in the NFL.
Monday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: You'd be hard-pressed to find a match up between two more mediocre teams with a better collective winning percentage (70+%) than these NFC North residents. One could argue the Lions were one poorly-timed TO call v. Arizona and one or two plays against KC from being 4-0, while the Packers could easily be 5-0 or 0-5. Green Bay destroyed the Cowboys last Sunday night, before nearly letting them come back, so they get a long-ish week to prepare for the Lions, but not as much as the Lions had to prepare for Green Bay coming off their bye week. The Lions are so historically bad I doubt there are any positive bye week numbers to correlate to the Lions winning on MNF, so suffice it to say the Packers are at home against the Lions with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, which is about all you need to know. * = UNDER
Stay
tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 6 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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