Ohhhh
yeeeaaahhh. The Kool Aid Man has the Kansas Chiefs rolling and the best team in
the NFL has Super Bowl aspirations in a league turned on its head in 2017.
2017 NFL SEASON
Week 7: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis)
Week 6 results: 0-1 wins
(season: 41-37; .526); 1-0 v. spread (season: 38-40; .487)
Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 (-3) @ Oakland Raiders 2-4 (46.5): Chiefs 24-23
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Oakland
Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: 40% rain;
high 50s)
Reasons: When I wrote our
NFL preview this preseason I never imagined this Week 7 AFC West divisional game
would feature a 2-4 Raiders team, but here we are. Seems like a mismatch,
right? I want to break down the game statistically, but then I’d have to tell
you the hapless Raiders defense is actually statistically better than Kansas City’s vaunted defense (OAK: 12th scoring defense/23rd yards allowed; KC:
13th scoring defense/29th yards allowed). That’s how
whacky this 2017 NFL season has been so far. The problem is Oakland’s defense
is better then their own offense (18th
scoring; 30th yards gained), which is a problem considering the
Raiders are actually supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. On the other side,
we can’t hold the Chiefs Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh against Kansas City too
much, as the Steelers not only possess one of the best defenses in the NFL (Note: The Steelers rank 1st in
points and yards allowed for teams having played all 6 games in 2017), they
haven’t lost to the Chiefs in a while. Kansas City’s offense should travel well
in the rain on short rest and comes into the game ranked in the top-7 in time
of possession (7th), 3rd-down
efficiency (6th), turnover
ratio (3rd), yards (2nd), yards per play (1st), and scoring (1st), but also come in with
key injuries on the offensive line. Look for the Chiefs to rebound, but on a short
week with attrition, I wouldn’t expect the Chiefs to roll.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3 (+3) @ Buffalo Bills 3-2 (45): Bills 21-20
Sunday, 1:00
PM, New Era Field, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Mostly sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
A recent benching could light a fire in Jameis Winston, if he makes it onto the
field, but unfortunately for Winston and the Buccaneers they face the league’s
top scoring defense in the Bills. Adding to the game intrigue is the fact the
Buccaneers have yet to win on the road, while the Bills have yet to lose at
home.
Carolina Panthers 4-2 (-3) @ Chicago Bears 2-4 (41): Panthers 24-17
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather:
50% rain; low 70s)
Reasons:
The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFL (Cleveland Browns) that are among the league leaders in yards
allowed (6th), yet in the
bottom quarter of the league in points allowed (25th), which means they won’t give up many big plays to
the Panthers, but they’ll give up plenty of points. It’s hard to believe the Panthers,
which ranks in the top-10 in both said defensive categories, will lose to a
rookie quarterback with mixed results in his only two starts.
Tennessee Titans 3-3 (-6) @ Cleveland Browns 0-6
(45.5): Titans 27-24
Sunday, 1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons:
Remember the Browns? We just talked about them. They’re awful, but the
Titans aren’t exactly barnburners. That’s not a William Faulkner joke, nor am I
related to him, despite my witty football prose. The Titans give up the second-most
points in the NFL (27.3 ppg), but the
Browns are bad at everything, except for that wacky yards allowed stat (8th), and the Titans have actually something
to play for. Get your tickets fast; there are only 3,000 left and they start at
$6.
Marcus Mariota leads the Tennessee Titans into Cleveland to face the win less Browns.
New Orleans Saints 3-2 (-4) @ Green Bay Packers 4-2 (47.5): Saints 27-24
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather:
70% rain; high 50s)
Reasons:
Don’t look now but the Saints might be the hottest team in the NFL, winning
three straight games after dropping their first two games big while looking
miserable. The Packers, on the other hand, just had their head chopped off.
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3 (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts 2-4
(43.5):
Jaguars 30-20
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The Jaguars are sneaky good. They’re actually very good, but who trusts
the Jaguars? You probably should, especially against these Colts, statistically
one of the worst teams in the NFL. Additionally, the Colts only two wins have
come against the Browns by three points and the Cardinals in OT. The Colts are
the worst scoring defense in the NFL, giving up six more points per game than
the 30th-ranked New England Patriots; to find the next 6-point
differential from New England one would have to venture into the top-10
defenses in the league, a separation of 20
teams. The Colts are really bad.
Arizona Cardinals 3-3 (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams 4-2 (45.5): Rams 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Twickenham Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: I’ve given up
trying to predict these London games, especially at a place called Twickenham, which sounds like a wizard
could fly into the stadium thinking he’s going to witness actual rams and
cardinals battling and destroy the place in disappointment. Assuming that doesn’t
happen, London is about to get a dose of the young hot Rams.
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
20% rain; low 80s)
Reasons:
Move along, nothing to see here. The Dolphins were probably excited to sign Jay
Cutler at some point, but I imagine that excitement has waned. Miami comes into
the game with the worst scoring offense in the league, and it almost seems like
all-time (12.2 ppg). They also gain
the fewest yards (243 ypg). The Jets
aren’t much better, but they certainly better than a three-point spread.
Ndamukong Suh leads the Miami Dolphins 3rd-ranked scoring defense against the division rival New York Jets Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens 3-3 (+5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-2
(38.5):
Vikings 21-17
Sunday, 1:00
PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather:
Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons:
Word on the street is Teddy Bridgewater is back at practice. Suddenly the
Vikings have a good quarterback problem, one that involves a record-breaking
season (Sam Bradford) and a toss-away
backup who threw for 300+ yards (Case
Keenum). Of course that has nothing to do with this game, but the Vikings
defense (5th yards allowed; 5th
points allowed) will have plenty to do with it.
Dallas Cowboys 2-3 (-6) @ San Francisco 49ers 0-6
(48.5):
Cowboys 24-20
Sunday, 4:05
PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons:
If only it were 1994. It isn’t, but this game won’t be nearly as lopsided as
people might have imagined a few weeks ago. Ezekiel Elliot has escaped
suspension again, but you have to
assume the constant flip-flopping has to be mentally taxing, and it seems to
be. Then again, defenders watch tape and Elliot’s predictable decline is
probably more a function of defensive game planning and Dez Bryant’s sudden disappearance
act. The Cowboys need this one, but it won’t be as easy.
Sunday, 4:25
PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons:
This is a battle to see who has the worst offensive line and the
Football Gods wouldn’t have it any other way than to make it such that the
battle would also feature two of the league’s most feared defensive fronts,
which is funny considering both teams rank in the lower third of the league in
sacks. Regardless, this could be an ugly game. The Giants finally won their
first game last week, and it came with barely any offense and none of their original
starting wide receivers. That won’t fly with these Seahawks.
Cincinnati Bengals 2-3 (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2 (40.5): Bengals 20-17
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons:
All of a sudden the dust has cleared, the Steelers love each other
again, and they’re coming off a monumental win against the NFL’s best Kansas
City Chiefs. However, the Bengals have won two straight after dropping their
first three and boast the leagues top overall defense (2nd yards allowed; 2nd points allowed). The
Steelers haven’t won consecutive games since Week 2, and the Bengals once
woeful offense just dropped 20 on the league’s top scoring defense (Buffalo Bills), so I’m taking a chance
on the league’s best overall defense, especially getting nearly a touchdown.
The Los Angeles Chargers were once 0-4, but have won two straight games and look to continue their streak against the Denver Broncos Sunday.
Denver Broncos 3-2 (-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-4
(48.5):
Chargers 21-20
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather:
Sunny; high 80s)
Reasons:
What a difference a few weeks makes. Two weeks ago Denver was 3-1 and
looked like world-beaters kicking back on their bye week; Los Angeles was winless
and looked as if all hope was lost. Now the Chargers have won two straight and
are suddenly 1.5 games behind the Broncos in a division that just became very competitive.
Denver remains the better team statistically, by far actually, but there’s
nothing like momentum in the NFL, and the Chargers are humming.
(Interesting note: In 2017 so far Denver has
scored 21.6 ppg and has allowed 19.4 ppg; Los Angeles has scored 19.3 and
allowed 21.8. Statistically speaking this game should theoretically end DEN
21.7 – 19.35 LAC)
Atlanta Falcons 3-2 (+3) @ New England Patriots 4-2
(56.5):
Patriots
28-27
Sunday,
8:30 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather:
Mostly sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
A rematch of Super Bowl LI, both teams have come into 2017 major disappointments.
The Patriots look like a shell of their former team, while the Falcons have
dropped two straight games, both to other AFC East opponents, coincidentally,
one of which, the Miami Dolphins, is terrible. Did I mention these losses came
at home? New England is firing on all
cylinders again on offense (1st
yards gained; 5th points scored), but is poised to have a record-breaking
defense in 2017 - record-breaking as in terrible. The Patriots give up the most
yards in the league (441 ypg) and
allow the 5th most points (26.5),
which should play well into the hands of an offense that gains lots of yards (5th) and gains them in
bunches (2nd yards per play)
and a team that is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games. Regardless,
look for that SBLI hangover to linger.
Washington Football Team 3-2 (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 5-1 (49): Eagles 27-21
Monday, 8:30 PM, Lincoln
Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons: The Eagles are
about to play their fourth game in 22 days. That seems wild to me. This game is
also the second time these two teams have played in the first six weeks of the
season. This feels like déjà vu, and considering how badass this defense has
become over the past several weeks, not to mention the return of the mighty Fletcher
Cox, I imagine things will go pretty much the same as they did Week 1.
Week 7
byes: Detroit Lions; Houston
Texans
Stay tuned for Week 7: #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
